Finding Side Value in Accuscore

L

ljump12

Well-Known Member
I'm reposting this, becuase I had some of the formulas wrong before.

Here's how the side value system works..

Accuscore runs a game simulation 10,000 times, and comes back with a percentage of how many times it thinks each team will win.

For example: In today's Houston/Chicago game..
Houston is going off at +130 - convert that to LasVegas% and vegas thinks they will win 43% of the time.
Chicago is going off at -135 - convert that to LasVegas% and vegas thinks they will win 57% of the time.

Now we examine what Accuscore says the probabilies are:
Houston: 51.4% chance of winning
Chicago: 48.6% chance of winning

Becuase Houstons predicted abve the las vegas line, they would be the side value team.

In my system i will be tracking 3 different categories:
1. All games are a play, whichever side has value will be played.
2. Only games where the accuscore prediction is a full 7 points above the LV% will be played
3. Only games where the hometeam is predicted by accuscore as winning more than 50% of their games will be played.

After 2 Days of results..
Category 1: 14-10 / +2.82 Units
Category 2: 1-3 / -2.36 Units
Category 3: 11-6 / +2.92 Units

Today's Plays:
Category 1: FLA / PHL / COL / BAL / TOR / CIN / HOU / TEX / MIN / CWS / STL / SDN / OAK / SFO / TAM
Category 2: COL / TOR / CIN / HOU / TEX / TAM
Category 3: FLA / PHL / TOR / CIN / HOU / TEX / MIN / CWS / STL / SFO / TAM

Questions comments concerns always welcome!

-Brian
 
here's how the early games went

Category 1: 3-0
Category 2: 1-0
Category 3: 2-0

I plan on adding over/under category for shortline. That will be category 4.
 
GL and I'll support your endeavour, but my gut tells me that this works month 1 and then fades...
 
Seabass said:
GL and I'll support your endeavour, but my gut tells me that this works month 1 and then fades...
Click to expand...

what makes you say that? I was thinking the opposite that it may not work in month 1 - but then start to pick up. Any input that could help this i'd appreciate.
 
After Wednesday's games:

Category 1: 22-17 | +4.44 Units
Category 2: 4-6 | -1.60 Units
Category 3: 16-12 | +1.86 Units

Will be back with the plays for today later.
 
Plays for today:
Category 1: BAL / BOS / LAA / CWS / TEX / MIN / TOR / STL / CIN / LAD / SFO
Category 2: TOR / CIN
Category 3: BOS / LAA / CWS / TEX / MIN / TOR / STL / CIN / SFO

BOL to all

FWIW: Accuscore is 59.8% on Milwaukee Over 7.5, and 61% on Boston Under 8.5.
 
Category 1: 4-5 Today | 26-22 Overall | +3.0 Units
Category 2: 2-0 Today | 6-6 Overall | +.53 Units
Category 3: 4-3 Today | 20-15 Overall | +2.45 Units
Category 4: 3-6 Today | 4-6 Overall | (Still calculating Units, but around -3)

I've added category 4 which is over/unders. It will be playing whichever it predicts, over or under. I'd like to add a category 5, that will only play an over or under when it predicts it above 57%.

Obviously the San-Fran game is still going on , i'll add that one later..

Questions Comments Concerns?
 
ljump12 said:
what makes you say that? I was thinking the opposite that it may not work in month 1 - but then start to pick up. Any input that could help this i'd appreciate.
Click to expand...

AccuScore is doing the same thing the books are trying to do - find a way to calculate and make a prediction. The problem with AccuScore, as far as I know, is that they probably aren't going to be able to adjust like the books will, because the books still have a human making the final call, and I'm not sure AccuScore does. I do believe AccuScore tries to account for players being hurt on the offensive side, but are they able to do an adjustment for a players lost defensive ability?

For the most part, in systems that are roughly pure calculation, I've noticed that you are better off fading your calculation and going to the side of the book.
 
Seabass said:
AccuScore is doing the same thing the books are trying to do - find a way to calculate and make a prediction. The problem with AccuScore, as far as I know, is that they probably aren't going to be able to adjust like the books will, because the books still have a human making the final call, and I'm not sure AccuScore does. I do believe AccuScore tries to account for players being hurt on the offensive side, but are they able to do an adjustment for a players lost defensive ability?

For the most part, in systems that are roughly pure calculation, I've noticed that you are better off fading your calculation and going to the side of the book.
Click to expand...

I see where you're coming from - and makes a lot of sense.

Looking at this article however, http://accuscore.com/mlb/articles/baseball-betting-mlb-wagering-on-side-values/ It seems that they had better success after april. I understand this is a lot of marketing stuff, but i'm sure there is some truth to it. I guess we'll track it and find out.

BTW - is your avatar from the wire?
 
Last edited:
ljump12 said:
I see where you're coming from - and makes a lot of sense.

Looking at this article however, http://accuscore.com/mlb/articles/baseball-betting-mlb-wagering-on-side-values/ It seems that they had better success after april. I understand this is a lot of marketing stuff, but i'm sure there is some truth to it. I guess we'll track it and find out.

BTW - is your avatar from the wire?
Click to expand...

The thing is, looking into the past, its real easy to devise systems that would win. I guess color me skeptical. I just respect the calculation abilities of Vegas to the point where I have a tough time thinking that someone else could come up with a better calculation. I'll keep my eye on it, definitely.

And yes, my avatar is Brother Mouzone from the Wire. Gotta rock the bowtie.
 
Oh my, don't i look like an idiot - I had the category 2 plays off. Not majorly, but i fixed the formula. Good news is it is actually doing better, and is 7-2 (+5.97 Units). Here's the plays for today... These are with the lines I was getting from matchbook at the time I built the excel table (usually around 10AM). So if you actually wanted to play any of these, let me know the odds you're getting and i can check it against my database to make sure it's still a play.

Category 1: SFO / LAA / CHC / HOU / LAD / CWS / NYM / KC / PHL / PIT / SDN / SEA/ TAM / TEX / TOR / WAS
Category 2: CWS / TAM
Category 3: SFO / LAA / HOU / CWS / PIT / SDN / SEA / TEX / TOR / WAS
Category 4: LAD UNDER 9.5
 
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So WTF...when something isn't working you claim a bad formula???

haha...yes you like an idiot.

j/k...keep it the good work my friend.
 
Great night for me 1-5-1 on the personal card .. here's how the accuscore plays went

Category 1: Today 4-10 | Overall 31-32 (-1.21 Units)
Category 2: Today 1-2 | Overall 8-4 (+5.39 Units)
Category 3: Today 4-3 | Overall 25-19 (+4.20 Units)
Category 4: (I don't really have this set up - but the one play was a loss)

Looks like categories 2 & 3 are holding their own... Might as well be flippin coins on category 1.
 
Update on the system:
(I accidently deleted the data for the 11th - so it's one day off)

Category 1: 41-38 - (+2.31 Units)
Category 2: 10-4 (+7.28 Units)
Category 3: 30-23 (+5.33 Units)
 
Coolio - Here's the update after today's games (With boston still out)

Category 1 | 49-43 (+6.31 Units)
Category 2 | 13-4 (+9.91 Units)
Category 3 | 36-26 (+9.20 Units)

Category 2 Seems to be showing some value.. Time will tell.
 
ljump12 said:
Coolio - Here's the update after today's games (With boston still out)

Category 1 | 49-43 (+6.31 Units)
Category 2 | 13-4 (+9.91 Units)
Category 3 | 36-26 (+9.20 Units)

Category 2 Seems to be showing some value.. Time will tell.
Click to expand...

can you post the category 2 games the next few days...:cheers:
 
The system shows no category 2 Plays today. Red Sox were close @ 6.7, but did not meet the threshold of 7. If you can get the redsox better than -136, it would be a play.
 
ljump12 said:
The system shows no category 2 Plays today. Red Sox were close @ 6.7, but did not meet the threshold of 7. If you can get the redsox better than -136, it would be a play.
Click to expand...

For what it's worth - I's now moved to -131 at Matchbook - Any idea's on if the line will continue to push down? or should I get on it now?
 
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