Final Sunday--

[tee*dub]

Updated:

ATS 20-16 , +8400
ML dogs 3-2, +9400
Teasers 2-6, -4400
ML favs 0-1, -2700
Totals 5-6,+250
HT wager 14-6, +16,700

Overall NFL 44-37, +27,650

__________________________________________________

Cinncy -2.5, -110, 4 units; 2200-2000

Adds:

Rams TT over 21, -115, 4 units 2300-2000
Vikes -2.5, -110, 6 units; 3300-2000

Here we are. My most dreaded week of the NFL season and a week I have learned is by far the most difficult week of the season.. I don't bet exhibition FB and this is why I hate this week. Most of these games are exhibitions that will be decided by players that aren't on any fantasy teams.

Having siad that, I am a little more than 2 units away from my stated regular season NFL goal so I must find at least one:

The candidates:

Bills v. Eagles -7.5.... Maybe, lean the Eagles

Panther v. Bucs.... Nope- exhibition

Bengals at Dolphins... Maybe, lean the Bengals

Cowboys v. Redskins... Nope, exhibition (why didn't the NFL mandate this be played at 1 instead of 4:15. Would have made the Viking Denver game easier to read)

Lions v. Packers... Nope, exhibition

Jags v. Texans... Nope, exhibition

Saints v. Bears.. Small lean Saints but not realistic ambitions in play for Saints so probably pass

Steel v. Ravens.. Hmm, not sure but lean Steel

Seahawks v. Falcolns.. nope exhibition

49ers v. Browns... Interesting game as it really doesn't matter, but Browns want to stay sharp for playoffs just in case Peyton Manning acts like his brother, has some pride and plays four quarters in a meaningless game that means something to someone else.

Titans v. Colts... Nope, sadly an exhibition.. No way anyone not on the inside can predict the items that need predicting to make an accurate play. pass.

Vikings v. Broncos... NFL should have mnadated Dallas Wash play at 1 and this could have been interesting.. Not sure the Vikes mindset here. Surely in the back of their mind they realize Jessica Simpson and the Cowboy cheerleaders (who will be entering in Q2) have no chance against Redskins. Viking F&%*ed up and they know. Look for a lackluster perf today...Pass however.. NFL screwed this game up

Chargers v. Raiders...lean Chargers

Rams v. Cardinals.. Now this game interests me.. More later.. IF I can get 7. Rams are in play

Chiefs v. Jets...no opinion

I could use some help today.. Just need 2 more units:cheers: Thoughts Sportnut, Shark, anyone?

Right now, gun to my head, Rams are the play..

 

[joebrensports]

Go with DEN. PIT is good as well.

 

[Joe Public]

I'm on the Saints and the Ravens, those are probably the ones I like most today.

Overs in GB and Houston are also interesting, take a look and good luck today.

 

[SportsNut]

Eight 1 PM starts ...First I dont buy any shit that a coach is spewing about playing his starters today. No playoff team is gonna risk a key injury in a totally meningless game. If anyone even compares NE @ NYG last nite please pull there head from there ass before responding. Naturally a coach is gonna say all the RIGHT things. How wonderful would it look for the NFL if this coaches said nah guys were just lay down get beat and run of the stadium as quick as possible. Holmgren's comments are baffling? Sour taste ? From what he made it to the Super Bowl !

Falcons - While it may be INSANE to back them what is SEA motivation? ATL is fighting hard for a WIN cause its been so long and you dont want that to carry over into the offseason. They have Emmitt Thomas a guy who is sort an NFL lifer who may never get another chance to coach an NFL game. Who is liked....Interim coach Emmitt Thomas said he would like to be considered for the head-coaching job but he is pretty certain he's not going to get a shot. Thomas said he's never known of an interim coach being considered for a full-time job.
As to whether Thomas would return to coaching if he doesn't get the head job remains to be seen. Even before he was asked to fill in for Bobby Petrino after Petrino left to coach at Arkansas, there was talk that Thomas, 64, was considering retirement.
Thomas is highly regarded by his peers and the players with the Falcons. Several players said they would like it if he were to return in some capacity. Then you have Warrick Dunn who says he will not retire and may be playing his last game in ATL. We all know how Dunn is respected and I would expect an inspired effort from him and his OL...

Redman has played fairly well except vs TB vaunted defense. Against second stringers he should be able to do somethings. At the very worst the 2nd H will present some value.

Hawks will sit Branch and think Engram will be limited. If Hasselback is pulled more like when he is pulled then Charlie Frye and not Seneca Wallace could see action.

The Falcons have not won a finale since 03 and the babineaux brothers are playing against eachother.

QUOTE TO NOTE
"I think they'll pull them out, especially the quarterback. They'll probably keep the offensive line in to take care of the second-string quarterback so they can operate, but I think he'll strategically pull them out one by one." -- Falcons interim coach Emmitt Thomas, on how he expects Seattle to barely play its starters since it has clinched the NFC West and a playoff berth.


It's hard to say outloud but I like ATL here.


CLE : Heavy number to lay. What would be the reasons to take SF though? Travel East with and early start in teh freezing cold. Playing there 4th string QB who I believe had 3 practices to work with and was out of the NFL all year. Team UNDER 14.5 looks solid IMO since Browns Defense has been solid past month but Roye and Peek are OUT. Also even with Hill they couldnt manage to avg 300yds last 3. They were the benefit of playing disinterested teams with a combination of timely turnovers.

Th 49ers have played outstanding defense at home but there has been a dropoff big time on the road just look at the final scores. Contain Gore and dare someone else to make plays..

Think CLE is highly motivated to win 10 games and finish the season on the right note if this is indeed there last game.

Dont want to get to indepth here but would lay the number but perhaps for some the SF TT UND 14.5 and Browns teased to -2 are better......

Houston : If you are looking for value plays turn elswhere in week 17. I suspect Garrard plays very little since its obvious how well he led the offense. Quinn Gray is not a bad backup but I dont think Drew or Taylor sees much if any action either. The WRs arent the greatest to begin with . The Jags defense is decimated by injury and you would think its extremely cautious here.

Texans are playing for 500 , playing to NOT go 0-6 in there division and have established a nice home field edge. A loss by Jax is so meaningless. ND KAlu apologized for his teams performance last week so with the first NON losing season on the line I owuld expect a top notch effort here...

Probably lay the 6 and tease it.....

The rest.....

Bills @ Eagles- Prefer not to lay 9 with Philly here but would tease them down...not sure what to make of Buffalo but I do think with a few key defensive injuries the over looks interesting and the Eagles TT over...

Car @ TB: - the Bus will NOT SHOW UP today! When Earnest Graham says the team is NOT WORRIED about momentum I have no doubt this is something that has been addressed behind the scenes. If they took the 2nd H of a winnable game to evaluate players in SF why would this be any different. Not sure how CAR does it but they should win. Motivated by Fox last game? McCown has looked decent but what happens with second tier WRs and backup OL? The ground game could be okay with Pittman and Bennett but so dependent on the OL play. TB is an older team especially on defesne and would expect little from the vets. Panthers have a solid defense....(prob be on CAROLINA)

Cincy @ Miami - Have to lean Bengals the only concern I have is Parcells addition keeping Miami motivated. I have to think they want the season to end as quick as possible but Parcells throws a wrench into that logic. Bengals havent won 2 straight and alternated for about 7 games now. The offense has dried up and the defense improved with Jeantry. Question is why such a high total??

Det @ GB- If Rodgers is OUT who is playing QB? Have to lean DET here cause I dont see where GB motivation comes ?

NO @ Chicago- has the bear defense finally figured it out? Seems that way past 2 games they have been awesome.I know Sainst are playing for something still and have revenge. However a dome team outdoors in the cold with really nothing to gain and no ground game seems like a tough task. Have to like the Bears effort and if that defense shows up da Bears WIN....

Already faded the Jets @ 4PM.....not sure about totals...

BOL:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Excellent stuff Nut.

Going with:

Cinncy -2.5, -110, 4 units; 2200-2000

Some of the Bengals players might also be auditioning with Parcells. LOL

 

[SportsNut]

Over 23.5 Eagles TT
Texans -6.5
Lions +3.5
Panthers -2.5
Falcons ML
Browns -11.5

Browns , Texans and Eagles teaser
Browns , Eagles and Skins teaser....

Bears , bengals Over 42 Jags Parlay
:cheers:
what I have so far

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Over 23.5 Eagles TT
Texans -6.5
Lions +3.5
Panthers -2.5
Falcons ML
Browns -11.5

Browns , Texans and Eagles teaser
Browns , Eagles and Skins teaser....

what I have so far

On Lions ML also and Over in the Bills game so also need some scoring there, against you on TBAY but good luck

 

[Joe Public]

SN has moved me onto the Falcons.

This reminds me of when the Browns lost Butch Davis and got a win in Houston for Robiskie.

Go Atlanta. Gulp.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Sammy and Dub ! BOL

 

[SportsNut]

SN has moved me onto the Falcons.

This reminds me of when the Browns lost Butch Davis and got a win in Houston for Robiskie.

Go Atlanta. Gulp.

Good Luck..just parlayed them with CAR ML.....:cheers:

Somebody take me out back and put me to sleeprayer

 

[GridironGems]

GL today tee

 

[spanishshark]

Best of luck with your plays today :cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

After a shaky start I had to add more Atlanta PK 2nd H...BOL

and hedged out of half my Browns play...really need a 13 pt win to middle

 

[tee*dub]

Cincy looking good at HT:smiley_acbe:

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Rams TT over 21, -115, 4 units 2300-2000
Vikes -2.5, -110, 4 units; 2200-2000

 

[SportsNut]

Nice to start to the 3rd quarter.

Operation 4:15 games is underway. Six games to look at ...

Chiefs : I understand KC is bad but the NYJ are laying 6 pts? What did I miss? If I am lining this game I have it at -3 ! These teams look fairly even to me. Throw in Edwards going back to the Meadowlands and KC another team with a long losing streak they dont want to carry into the offseason. NYJ has scored less then 20 points in 7 of 10 and 20 in another. Coles los may be bigger then Kennisons absence. No matter who is QB for either side its basically a wash productivity wise. KC fought last week @ Det down early and did well on defense vs Kitna and Co. KC is 5-2 ATS away this season and not an easy schedule...NYJ has 2 wins over one of the worst NFL teams ever and huge upset in OT by 3 vs Pitt...so 2 FG wins to date of 3....

take the points no matter where they are above +4...this was something that stuck out all week and I played it +7 earlier but will be adding in some fashion..

Pitt: Really tough to see Balt doing anything here. Big Ben is OUT but so what? Batch is one of the better backup QBs in the NFL and probably too every rep this week. Pitt has some depth at WR and RB as well. blt is down to Troy Smith who can make plays but is still a rookie 3rd stringer , McGahee and Anderson appear out leaving Musa Smith. Demetrius Williams will not return here and Clayton should play but is questionable. All 3 TEs are out . On defense both starting CBs and Sapp now. Ray Lewis the emotional leader is out. This is simply a decimated team that I would really see struggling to win. The key is Pitt really has nothing to gain and ravens would want to finsih strong at home where they have played well....

Still have to lean Steelers.....

Rams : STL not known for there play outdoors on grass is 3-1 last 4 trips to rival Arizona. They did lose earlier in the season with Frerotte at QB and it was a game. You have to think STL filled with veteran talent especially on offense wants to finish off playing hard. They face a decimated Arizona defene and secondary. Cards are fairly healthy on offense if Fitz and Boldin did not suffer any setbacks which I dont think happened..

Warner has tremendous incentive to play here in the form of 3 seperate 500K bonuses..for staying above a 90 passer rating , and in the top 10 in YPA and TDS thrown.

Cards have shown to be a poor fav . At home vs Car , ATL and SF three of the worst teams in the NFL they lost SU to Car laying 6 in Vinnys 1st game back from the couch , they lost in OT vs SF laying -10, and vs ATL laying 11 they avoided embarrasment by tieing it late and winning by 3 in OT....there wins as home chalk laying small numbers -1 and -2 vs Cle and DET when both teams were off good home wins and everyone screamed foul!

So Rams ++...

Still working on the other 3 matchups but like KC and Rams with a lean to Pitt:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Bump my Vikes bet to 6 units.. Peterson runs wild today against 30th ranked run defense...

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck Tee*

The rest..

Vikes @ Denver - I was well aware that DEN on Xmas Eve night after being knocked from the playoffs would stuggle in SD. Just a terrible spot. here they are back home and have a guy like John Lynch who will rally the troops. Cutler has played much better at home recently. The Vikes slide can go back 3 games IMO. The game in SF the 49ers did everything possible to hand Minny a win. Check the numbers. Dilfer pick 6 on the opening possesion & believe a later punt return. Vikes did zip on offense. Denvers run defense has improved since they scrapped Bates system due to lack of players to run it properly. Vikes finished with a poor game vs Chi thatthey managed to win and a terrible looking loss in all facets vs Wash. Winfield is OUT for them a big loss .

I think the over 41 is the better play here. I simply dont see value in playing Minnesota a team who faile dto clinch at home. Remember DEN last game las year?? SF beat them to knock them out. Trust me Shanny and the boyz do. Its Den time to knock someone out.

Probably play the over and probably will pass on DEN cause I rather root for TeeDub then be right.

UGH just took a terrible beat @ Harvard in CBB! Capped CBB late could hgave had any where from 3 to 4 got stuck with +2.5 of course they lead all game including every second of regulation to lose by 3 in OT....huge swing! FUCK

SD @ Oak - Probably best to play SD early with Oak for the game. I just dont see much here. Russell is a crap shoot and shaky play could give SD an early quick lead...maybe 1st H over...staying away...

dal @ wash - Owens is OUT. Skins seem to be team of destiny . Find a way to tease Skins down cause its still a rivalry....passing as well

 

[SportsNut]

Scratch the Over @ Denver

 

[SportsNut]

Difference bewteen GOOD and GREAT is so minimal.. my capping is fine but decision making terrible

Hit every game ATS except DET naturally I had DET Teased , game and 2nd H so took 3 L's. Only leaned Buffalo though but had 5 others SU and 2 different in parlays. The awful beat @ Harvard won 1st H ML , but lost game and 2nd H. Lost the game by the hook as well...Only collegegame I played yesterday was UNDER 134 TCU it fell on 135 thanks to 0 2nd H points!

Team total took Philly over which I lost cause of a terrible INT and simply forgot to play SF Under 14.5 even though I mentioned how great a play it was. Damn ADD issues....

Three totals that looked shaky Miami was lined to high for two teams struggling on offense, as well as TB both went over and Cle I naturally like the UDN 41...didnt play any...

Did hit 2 parlays though ATL & Car ML and Chi , Cincy and over 42 Jax...

Just pissed solid day but a terrible decision or two and a moose hurt!

BOL..

Think I have Skins +1 to complete a teaser and Dallas +9 for half to hedge / middle

Jets +7 and Rams +6.5 ATS

Smaller on-

Steelers 1st H -2.5

Rams Over 21 TT

1st Q KC and 2nd Q KC +0.5

due to indecision hedged out of nearly all of my over40.5 Minny..

 

[SportsNut]

Second Half thoughts

Well if you cannot throw the ball effectively then its makes comebacks tough. I just dont think Jackson has it right now and the pressure on him is probably to tough to overcome. I stayed away because I really didnt want to be against Tee here. Bad decision or lousy excuse I dont know. If you believe that Minny can comeback then you can have them real cheap here but I rather not take the +3 -120 when I could have had the prior to the game. Small lean to the over 20...

Took a small chance with OAK +4.5 . Figure Rivers will get pulled and SD gets very basic on offense. Alot of key defensive players could be rested...

KC @ NYJ- Simply gonna ride my play out. If KC doesnt give NY short fields they cant score. However there OFFENSE has been terrible would love to see Huard but would be suprised. If Huard plays then KC PK +!20...

Why would Pitt show up in the 2nd H when it looks like they mentally packed it in before kick? Cant take Balt and if you think Steelers fight still then they are cheap...

Dont know whats up with STL offense struggling and settling for FGs but they are probably worth a shot...

Dallas will probably pack it in the 2nd H...

Sorry the 4 PM stuff not my best work..
:cheers:

 

[VYwins]

bad day for me to tail your afternoon picks after seeing your morning picks after the fact.

 

[SportsNut]

bad day for me to tail your afternoon picks after seeing your morning picks after the fact.

I wish I tailed my picks or thoughts. Sorry you lost wound up pretty flat...should have much more on KC but it was tough to add at half.

Not sure what you took it was a real crap shot from my post...