FINAL REGULAR SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR: Beavers at Hawaii.....

Hawaiiguy

Hawaiiguy

Big Kahuna
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Notes:[/FONT]
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Final Regular Season College Game.......
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Glad I laid off last week…..the huge line move and laying 20 points to a winning Big-10 team was just too much……[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Whenever your team wins and you are from a Mid-Major Conference, you have to worry about your coach attracting interest and more lucrative offers. Last year, I said Dan Hawkins of Boise State would get stolen away. Boise backers came in my post and said “No way, he is here for the foreseeable future”. Few months later, he is gone to Colorado….Looks like Hawaii Coach June Jones is drawing interest, rumor is, Alabama is interested in June Jones……makes sense since we have played them three times in recent years……personally, I don't think/hope he goes anywhere.....[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Hawaii is having great difficulty finding opponents for next year……Not only has Michigan State backed out, but most BCS Conference schools are turning down Hawaii. As of today, Hawaii has ONLY 9 games scheduled for next year (Hawaii has 13 games this year)……looks like Hawaii is screwed with scheduling D-I AA teams…..[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Hawaii and Oregon State are playing a Home and Home series…..Hawaii plays Oregon State at Corvallis next year.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- I Hate Oregon State with a passion……Who would hate on any kind of “Beaver”? Hear this out:[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It is common knowledge that Hawaii per capita produces more Division I and NFL players than any state. Those that subscribe to NFL Network saw how they came to a very small rural town on the North Shore called Laie, to see where all these NFL players were coming from. Problem in Hawaii’s past, all our high school Blue-Chippers left to play for mainland colleges. In past posts, I ragged on Tammy Chang a ton. But I credit him for this: as a highly recruited QB out of high school, he was the first Blue Chipper to choose Hawaii and stop the bleeding of players leaving for the mainland……Since 1998, June Jone’s arrival, Hawaii has more or less kept their talent at home [/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]However, two years ago, Oregon State hired away Hawaii’s Offensive Line Coach Cavanaugh. This guy Cavanaugh has put more Hawaii Offensive linemen in the NFL since 1998 than Notre Dame and Nebraska…..COMBINED. More significantly, OSU hired Cavanaugh to bleed Hawaii out of our best high school players. Check out the Oregon State Roster. There are 13 Hawaii Players. These aren’t any 13 Hawaii Players, but they are our Best high school players over the last two years, including 3 out of the Top 5 each year [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]of the best in Hawaii. Many of these guys were on rivals.com 3-4-5 Star Recruits.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In fact, when these two play on Saturday, there will be times when Oregon State’s entire defensive line will Hawaii kids…..It will be a battle of brothers Saturday…..Hawaii versus Hawaii…..
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That is the reason Oregon State has scheduled Hawaii back to back ……recruiting; and they are winning big…….just like how BYU in its National Title days was loaded with Hawaii players…F&%k OSU…..they are raping our talent base and we are helping them by playing them….[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]My Pick and Reasons Why:[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I have seen OSU in entirety against USC and Oregon this year…..[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- That Civil War with Oregon last week was a great game…..talk about a clutch drive for a game winning fg for OSU….except for USC, no game for OSU can be bigger than that….letdown situation.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Unlike Purdue’s spread offense, Oregon State is a predominantly run team led by mighty mouse Yvenson Bernard. Although Hawaii has been giving up a lot of yards, none of it has been on the ground. Purdue found this out getting stuffed over and over again….27 carries for a mere 90 yards. I said in week 2 post this is the best front 7 Hawaii has ever had….and it sure as hell is…Oregon State strength on offense will go right against our strength on defense…..[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Like every team that played Hawaii, OSU will eventually be forced to throw. Although a senior, OSU QB Matt Moore is average at best, no better than Purdue’s Painter.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- Perhaps Hawaii struggled with Purdue score wise…..but everyone who watched the game saw nothing is wrong with the offense. Hawaii racked up a mind numbing 653 yards of offense, including 220 yards rushing…..RB Nate Ilaoa’s two fumbles in the second half made the game close….I guarantee you he won’t fumble twice in this game…..[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oregon State may have taken 13 of our best high schoolers the past two years….but those Samoans are just Freshmen and Sophomores….time for them to get spanked by their older brothers on Hawaii…..[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hawaii high school recruits will be at this game, deciding between Oregon State and UH……June Jones and all the Hawaii players who tried to recruit those Hawaii kids on Oregon State are going to show them they made a mistake……A convincing win by Hawaii could also stop the bleeding of recruiting……[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]My third and final 1100 play of the season (Hawaii over Boise, Hawaii over Fresno)……it has been a fun one……[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hawaii -8 1100 to win 1000[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Good luck in whatever you play…….
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Thanks for the info bro.......I said it when it opened yesterday that I think this one will be very ugly..

OSU has been a much better home than road team as well..

Throw in the fact that this team is off an emotional win in a big rivalry and is bowling as well....

This is like a vacation for them..
 
I will prob play Hawaii this week, I think Oregon St might get some backers because of the Purdue cover but my biggest play might be on the Under. I know bold move taking a Under in a Hawaii game but hear my reasons..

Over is 21-5-1 in HAW last 27 home games. Scary right..

The line opened at 71, its already 73. The over hit the last 9 Hawaii games so if anything, people still have confidence that Hawaii scores a lot of points but maybe their defense isnt as strong. I think this line rises as we get closer to game time..

Now say that on Saturday the Over/Under is 75, which is reasonable, could be higher, I don't think its lower than that..

Hawaii total scores the last 6 weeks have been 77, 71, 78, 73, 78, 79.

Out of the 6 games, 3 of those teams Hawaii crushed were by 38 (LaTech), 53 (Ut St), 58 (Idaho). Oregon St is better than all of these teams by far..

Oregon St will not approach this game the same way Purdue did. Purdue had no problem getting into a pissing contest with Hawaii, however I think Oregon St tries to grind time out. Matt Moore is simply not capable nor is it in his nature to be the QB for a team that has to throw up a monster amount of points via the air game..If they do attempt to go to the air more than normal expect to see Hawaii defenders become OSU leading receivers.

That means that there are two ways I see this game going.. A Hawaii Blowout much like that Boist St loss OSU suffered early (42-14), or OSU grinds time off the clock and keeps it close (35-27) type of game.. In neither of these situations do I expect the over to hit. I think only two teams have put up over 40 on OSU: Cal (41) and Boise (42), both of which were blowouts under the suggested total of 75..

I could be totally wrong on this, I will look at it closer to gametime but taking the Over simply because its Hawaii is going to burn you sooner or later and I think this could be the week.

Under is 8-3 in OREST last 11 games overall.

Also as it is mentioned above, OSU won their civil war last week, playing their 13th game of the season, away on the island, they could be content... Who knows..
 
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Exactly bro....

I think alot of people will see Purdue at the number they received last week and losing by 7...then look at OSU...

They see Purdue lost by 7....OSU is > Purdue...so logic says OSU should stay w/in the number if Purdue did..

I don't think it plays that way at all..
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
I will prob play Hawaii this week, I think Oregon St might get some backers because of the Purdue cover but my biggest play might be on the Under. I know bold move taking a Under in a Hawaii game but hear my reasons..

Over is 21-5-1 in HAW last 27 home games. Scary right..

The line opened at 71, its already 73. The over hit the last 9 Hawaii games so if anything, people still have confidence that Hawaii scores a lot of points but maybe their defense isnt as strong. I think this line rises as we get closer to game time..

Now say that on Saturday the Over/Under is 75, which is reasonable, could be higher, I don't think its lower than that..

Hawaii total scores the last 6 weeks have been 77, 71, 78, 73, 78, 79.

Out of the 6 games, 3 of those teams Hawaii crushed were by 38 (LaTech), 53 (Ut St), 58 (Idaho). Oregon St is better than all of these teams by far..

Oregon St will not approach this game the same way Purdue did. Purdue had no problem getting into a pissing contest with Hawaii, however I think Oregon St tries to grind time out. Matt Moore is simply not capable nor is it in his nature to be the QB for a team that has to throw up a monster amount of points via the air game..

That means that there are two ways I see this game going.. A Hawaii Blowout much like that Boist St loss OSU suffered early (42-14), or OSU grinds time off the clock and keeps it close (35-27) type of game.. In neither of these situations do I expect the over to hit. I think only two teams have put up over 40 on OSU: Cal (41) and Boise (42), both of which were blowouts under the suggested total of 75..

I could be totally wrong on this, I will look at it closer to gametime but taking the Over simply because its Hawaii is going to burn you sooner or later and I think this could be the week.

Under is 8-3 in OREST last 11 games overall.
Click to expand...

I have absolutley no problem with your logic.....personally i think you are dead on........very nice capping.....:spank:
 
Have to say the info was great about how Hawaii players are fleeced. I guess though in some ways you can understand the kids wanting to get off the island .

Regardless I really agree with your points. I would actually think Painter is better then Moore but it really doesnt matter . So lets see if we get -7 here and clearly feel the UNDER is the play. Everything possible had to go right in that 4th quarter last week to squeak out the OVER (43 pts!!). Purdue is as you said better suited to move the ball on Hawaii then OSU and Bernard hasnt played all that well lately. As you said OSU is clearly better defensively then Purdue and will make Hawaii work for there points more then Purdue did.

I think this ends 38-24 maybe 41-24 but anything over 72 for a total provided a nice cushion IMO. Also would u agree being the last reg season game if Hawaii gets a nice lead 3 possessions (17-21 pts) or so that Hawaii be abit more conventional offensively. meaning look to run the bal chew clock and not get anyone hurt before the Bowl game trying for meaningless points??

I also mentioned how you noticed early onhow Hawaii line moves were incorrect all year( meaning public has no handle on this team) . Well Purdue got bet up and covered. Looks like early OSU is getting bet and that has meant...well u get the point...GL Hawaii and the UNDER for me)
 
SportsNut said:
Have to say the info was great about how Hawaii players are fleeced. I guess though in some ways you can understand the kids wanting to get off the island .

Regardless I really agree with your points. I would actually think Painter is better then Moore but it really doesnt matter . So lets see if we get -7 here and clearly feel the UNDER is the play. Everything possible had to go right in that 4th quarter last week to squeak out the OVER (43 pts!!). Purdue is as you said better suited to move the ball on Hawaii then OSU and Bernard hasnt played all that well lately. As you said OSU is clearly better defensively then Purdue and will make Hawaii work for there points more then Purdue did.

I think this ends 38-24 maybe 41-24 but anything over 72 for a total provided a nice cushion IMO. Also would u agree being the last reg season game if Hawaii gets a nice lead 3 possessions (17-21 pts) or so that Hawaii be abit more conventional offensively. meaning look to run the bal chew clock and not get anyone hurt before the Bowl game trying for meaningless points??

I also mentioned how you noticed early onhow Hawaii line moves were incorrect all year( meaning public has no handle on this team) . Well Purdue got bet up and covered. Looks like early OSU is getting bet and that has meant...well u get the point...GL Hawaii and the UNDER for me)
Click to expand...

I am not sure that Hawaii will go conventional. I am not sure how they feel about last weeks game but when you squeak one out as 20 point favorites it makes you look overrated. People might be saying "You can beat up WAC schools but you can't beat up a big school"...OSU is a team who beat USC so if anything Hawaii might get off at the fact that they can beat the crap out of them.. Remember that Colt Brennan is chasing a record and I'm sure if June Jones has the chance to get him it he will...

I really like the under though in this one..
 
SportsNut said:
Have to say the info was great about how Hawaii players are fleeced. I guess though in some ways you can understand the kids wanting to get off the island .

Regardless I really agree with your points. I would actually think Painter is better then Moore but it really doesnt matter . So lets see if we get -7 here and clearly feel the UNDER is the play. Everything possible had to go right in that 4th quarter last week to squeak out the OVER (43 pts!!). Purdue is as you said better suited to move the ball on Hawaii then OSU and Bernard hasnt played all that well lately. As you said OSU is clearly better defensively then Purdue and will make Hawaii work for there points more then Purdue did.

I think this ends 38-24 maybe 41-24 but anything over 72 for a total provided a nice cushion IMO. Also would u agree being the last reg season game if Hawaii gets a nice lead 3 possessions (17-21 pts) or so that Hawaii be abit more conventional offensively. meaning look to run the bal chew clock and not get anyone hurt before the Bowl game trying for meaningless points??

I also mentioned how you noticed early onhow Hawaii line moves were incorrect all year( meaning public has no handle on this team) . Well Purdue got bet up and covered. Looks like early OSU is getting bet and that has meant...well u get the point...GL Hawaii and the UNDER for me)
Click to expand...

i hear ya sportsnuts....hope this doesnt become quite the public play and follows the trend.......

i am looking into the under as well........due is due......
 
Hawaii has moved to 8 at Pinny. Hoping this moves down to 7 at some point and I will put another unit on it.
 
I was looking to take Oregon St, but I was expecting to be getting atleast 14-21 again lol. Ive seen Purdue and Oregon St play a couple times each too, and IMO Purdue is better. Matt Moore vs Colt Brennan is such a mismatch its a joke. :cheers:
 
Would like to see Oregon St win.. but i kind of have the feeling thats not gonna happen. :(
 
HOMECOMING: Eleven Hawaiian’s are on the Oregon State football player roster -- [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=129589"]Al Afalava[/URL] (So., FS, Laie), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=130035"]Naymon Frank[/URL] (Jr., DE, Honolulu), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=530290"]Aaron Nichols[/URL] (Fr., WR, Honolulu), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=592328"]Lahaina Olsen-Kuroda[/URL] (Fr., WR, Aiea), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=129924"]Jeremy Perry[/URL] (So, OG, Hau’ula), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=275722"]Ryan Pohl[/URL] (Fr., OL (Waipahu), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=592332"]Steven Rodenhurst[/URL] (Fr., OL, Kailua), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=530281"]Mana Silva[/URL] (Fr., QB, Hilo), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=530289"]Micah Strickland[/URL] (Fr., RB, Honolulu), [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=130022"]Tavita Thompson[/URL] (So., OL, Honolulu), and [URL="http://www.osubeavers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=24799&SPID=1952&DB_OEM_ID=4700&ATCLID=275796"]Suaesi Tuimaunei[/URL] (FR., S, Laie).
 
10 of which are frosh or soph.. It is very interesting that OSU has this many kids from Hawaii..
 
Look lets not ignore the 18,000 lbs pink elephant in the room, the Hawaiin's went to Oregon St for the "green", if you know what I mean:fumeur7:
 
Hope you have room for one more aboard the bandwaggon.

Great work this season, and hopefully you bring this one home to cap off another solid year.
 
Excellent insight on this game guys. I think this will be the CTG consensus of the week. I'm on Hawaii & the under for 5 units each. Let's cash this one men!

And Nick, last time I was in Hawaii, they semed to have some pretty fine "green" in their own back yard if I am correctly reading into your comment!
 
HawaiiGuy - I can't think of a more depressing title for a thread.

Having said that...best of luck this week bro. I'm still very impressed at the job Jones & Glanville have done at Hawaii. I hope both of them stay around at least a few more years. Teams are scared of playing your boys now. I'll be pulling for the Rainbow Warriors this weekend!

:cheers:
 
HG, agree with your assessment. June will definitely want to make a statement on national television that the Warriors are "for real" and that he has a top-notch quarterback.

Will be on the Warriors this weekend!

:cheers:
 
HG: I always appreciate your input on your local teams, no-one knows them better! Want to thank you for taking the time to share with us what you know. Will look forward to your write up their bowl game and of course your insight during cbb. :cheers:
 
cashflowmatters said:
HG: I always appreciate your input on your local teams, no-one knows them better! Want to thank you for taking the time to share with us what you know. Will look forward to your write up their bowl game and of course your insight during cbb. :cheers:
Click to expand...

thanks cash.....just hope info helps everyone formulate their own play.....with or fade, as long as you get it right....
 
From covers editorial..


Hawaii running back Nate Ilaoa might not be able to play Saturday when his team hosts Oregon State as 8-point favorites, but just how concerned bettors should be is debatable, according to a professional handicapper.
Ilaoa, who leads Hawaii in rushing yards, all-purpose yardage and touchdowns, suffered a bruised left heel in the fourth quarter of the Warriors win over Purdue on Nov. 25 and was held out of practice for much of this week.
On Tuesday Hawaii coach June Jones told reporters that Ilaoa was doubtful to play against Oregon Sate, but just a day later Ilaoa said he would be in uniform for the Warriors.
“I`m going to play,” Ilaoa told the media. “It`s Senior Night. What are you talking about?”
The contradicting reports could confuse some bettors, but Covers Expert and professional handicapper Matt Fargo said Ilaoa’s status really shouldn’t be a concern to anyone looking to lay cash on this game.
Fargo said Ilaoa is a solid player, but not one that is going to have a huge impact on the outcome of the Warriors-Beavers tilt.
“I think it’s a non-factor,” Fargo said. “The Beavers main priority is to try and slow down (Hawaii quarterback) Colt Brennan anyway, Ilaoa or no Ilaoa.”
Brennan has helped Hawaii become the nation’s top-ranked offense, with the Warriors leading the country in total yards of offense a game (553), passing yards per game (434.8) and points scored per game (48.6).
But the Warriors insist Ilaoa has also played a big role in their offensive success, and say his average of 8.1 yards per carry forces opposing defenses to divide their attention between Hawaii’s running and passing games instead of just zeroing in on Brennan.
“(Ilaoa) is a really talented player,” Hawaii running backs coach Wes Suan told reporters. “He started off as a receiver, so obviously he`s multi-talented.”
Fargo doesn’t think Ilaoa’s absence would hurt Brennan, however. He insists the Warriors have had success with the run because opposing defenses are more concerned with Brennan.
“(Ilaoa’s status) should not affect the passing game at all since the running game is set up through the potent passing attack,” Fargo said.
The Covers Expert adds that even if Hawaii does find itself in a position where their running game is badly needed against Oregon State, backup running back Reagan Mauia is solid enough to get the job done.
After all, he did run for 52 yards on only six carries against Louisiana Tech on Nov. 11 and last week against Purdue made a crucial fourth-quarter reception that led to a Warriors touchdown.
“Reagan Mauia is averaging close to five yards per carry, so he can be successful if asked to (run the ball a lot),” Fargo said. The total for the Hawaii-Oregon State game is set at 70.
 
Bkzfinest80 said:
Imagine the line for Hawaii/Any Div 1AA team... :smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

On September 30th, against Eastern Illinois, the line was Hawaii -28. I put a lot on that game.........

Hawaii sat the starters pretty early, and didn't cover by all that much, as I recall.....
 
Gl Hawaii Guy. I'll probably be tailing you.

Nice work all year, you've put me on some winners, and I appreciate that.
 
turned into a no play as osu is not that bad and couldn't lay 9.5
 
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