JPicks
Pretty much a regular
3 teams you'll be looking to fade/play coming down the stretch.
3 Fade Teams:
The Phoenix Suns dependent on what they do with Amare/Nash/Shaq. Don't really know how it could go any further south for these guys than their 17-32 ATS record to date. If they only deal Amare I can't see them making the playoffs and it's hard for me to believe that such a veteran group will find any motivation down the stretch. Best spots likely to be home games against young improving teams where they are still laying 8+ points. Feb. 20, Feb. 24th, Mar. 14th, April 13th all look like good spots.
The Orlando Magic. They've lost 3/5 ATS since Jameer went down (including the game he got hurt in) and I think his loss is being undervalued. They play 8 games in 12 days coming out of the ASB and should really feel the effects of losing Nelson who was having a career year. They've gone 33-17 ATS over their first 50 games and I'd expect them to have some exaggerated lines over the final stretch. They still have the talent and depth to overpower the weaker teams in the league but I think they struggle against the other heavyweights w/out their floor general. Will be looking to play against when during their 4/5 Feb. 24th-28th. Hosting Detroit and @PHI look like the strongest of the games to go against the Magic.
The Minnesota TWolves. This will only last as long as the lines don't get silly. Season down the drain with Jefferson's knee injury. They got outrebounded at home to the Raptors who are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league. Likely try to fade them at home as the lines are more reasonable. I'll lay DD's with the Lakers coming into town on Feb 22nd and probably bet against the Wolves @home against utah, Por, and Houston. The bright side here for Minny is that they might be able to pull a Spurs and get a Tim Duncan to line up next to Jefferson.
Other candidates: OKC Thunder (Durant's all star weekend ruined their obscurity), Houston (depending on Mcgrady status), Pistons (just based on chemistry problems).
3 Teams to Play
The Memphis Grizzlies. With any luck they can be my OKC Thunder of the first half. They've been dreadful going 20-31 ATS but it seems they might have finally found an identity. Since losing 11 straight ATS decisions they've won 5 of 6 including beating NOH and HOU SU. I'll be playing them right out of the gate on Tuesday @Utah depending on AK and Boozer status. Feb 24th @CLE (first half play for sure), actually pretty much their first 10 games out of the break I'll look for a reason to play them. Think they'll be competitive in losing.
GSW Warriors. Home games preferred with these guys. Team is healthy and played really well into the break. Still can't count on them to being motivated out on the road, but should still put on some good shows for the home crowds. Like them against any WC playoff team at home so will probably play them hosting the Lakers on the Wednesday, Dallas on March 13th, Phoenix on the March 15th, Hornets April 3rd, Rockets April 10th, and Spurs on April 14th. They'll have some impact on the seedings in the WC before it's over I can pretty much promise that.
Philadelphia 76ers as long as they don't do something stupid and trade Andre Miller. Now that Brand is out the team should go back on another nice roll. They're 11-17 ATS with him in the lineup and 14-8 ATS w/o him. Haven't really highlighted many spots with them. Just expect them to play over .500% ball (ATS wise) down the stretch. Likely to play on them their first 8 games out of the break. Schedule does get difficult towards the end capped with playing Cle, @TOR, BOS, @CLE to end the season.
Other candidates: Utah Jazz (once they get Boozer and AK back in the swing), Atlanta Hawks (again a health deal, but love them to actually knock off on of the big 3 in the EC playoffs), and Charlotte/MLW (just the two underrated teams that continue to cover and get no respect).
3 Fade Teams:
The Phoenix Suns dependent on what they do with Amare/Nash/Shaq. Don't really know how it could go any further south for these guys than their 17-32 ATS record to date. If they only deal Amare I can't see them making the playoffs and it's hard for me to believe that such a veteran group will find any motivation down the stretch. Best spots likely to be home games against young improving teams where they are still laying 8+ points. Feb. 20, Feb. 24th, Mar. 14th, April 13th all look like good spots.
The Orlando Magic. They've lost 3/5 ATS since Jameer went down (including the game he got hurt in) and I think his loss is being undervalued. They play 8 games in 12 days coming out of the ASB and should really feel the effects of losing Nelson who was having a career year. They've gone 33-17 ATS over their first 50 games and I'd expect them to have some exaggerated lines over the final stretch. They still have the talent and depth to overpower the weaker teams in the league but I think they struggle against the other heavyweights w/out their floor general. Will be looking to play against when during their 4/5 Feb. 24th-28th. Hosting Detroit and @PHI look like the strongest of the games to go against the Magic.
The Minnesota TWolves. This will only last as long as the lines don't get silly. Season down the drain with Jefferson's knee injury. They got outrebounded at home to the Raptors who are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league. Likely try to fade them at home as the lines are more reasonable. I'll lay DD's with the Lakers coming into town on Feb 22nd and probably bet against the Wolves @home against utah, Por, and Houston. The bright side here for Minny is that they might be able to pull a Spurs and get a Tim Duncan to line up next to Jefferson.
Other candidates: OKC Thunder (Durant's all star weekend ruined their obscurity), Houston (depending on Mcgrady status), Pistons (just based on chemistry problems).
3 Teams to Play
The Memphis Grizzlies. With any luck they can be my OKC Thunder of the first half. They've been dreadful going 20-31 ATS but it seems they might have finally found an identity. Since losing 11 straight ATS decisions they've won 5 of 6 including beating NOH and HOU SU. I'll be playing them right out of the gate on Tuesday @Utah depending on AK and Boozer status. Feb 24th @CLE (first half play for sure), actually pretty much their first 10 games out of the break I'll look for a reason to play them. Think they'll be competitive in losing.
GSW Warriors. Home games preferred with these guys. Team is healthy and played really well into the break. Still can't count on them to being motivated out on the road, but should still put on some good shows for the home crowds. Like them against any WC playoff team at home so will probably play them hosting the Lakers on the Wednesday, Dallas on March 13th, Phoenix on the March 15th, Hornets April 3rd, Rockets April 10th, and Spurs on April 14th. They'll have some impact on the seedings in the WC before it's over I can pretty much promise that.
Philadelphia 76ers as long as they don't do something stupid and trade Andre Miller. Now that Brand is out the team should go back on another nice roll. They're 11-17 ATS with him in the lineup and 14-8 ATS w/o him. Haven't really highlighted many spots with them. Just expect them to play over .500% ball (ATS wise) down the stretch. Likely to play on them their first 8 games out of the break. Schedule does get difficult towards the end capped with playing Cle, @TOR, BOS, @CLE to end the season.
Other candidates: Utah Jazz (once they get Boozer and AK back in the swing), Atlanta Hawks (again a health deal, but love them to actually knock off on of the big 3 in the EC playoffs), and Charlotte/MLW (just the two underrated teams that continue to cover and get no respect).
Well you can always hope anyway. Still trying to figure out how Minny doesn't get killed on the glass in every game from here out. Kevin Love has some work in front of him.
