So so card with a couple of potential bangers. There should be decent spots to make a buck or two...
UFC Vegas 48: Prelims
Bautista Decision ...Bautista is vulnerable to being held against the cage, an area that Perrin excels in, but he should be able to keep himself standing long enough to hurt Perrin. A toss-up between Perrin draining the clock by controlling Bautista on the fence or Perrin’s shocking striking defense seeing him eat the occasional bomb that Bautista throws.
Pearce Sub ...Junior Cortez was able to grind out Christian Rodriguez for long periods of time during his DWCS appearance. As the far larger and natural Featherweight, Pearce will likely out-muscle Rodriguez from the get-go. Even with Rodriguez’s crisp right straight, Pearce’s durability will allow him to walk down Rodriguez.
Anheliger KO ...Strader is a high-volume, aggressive striker who is happy to trade bombs on the feet. Chad Anheliger is durability tested and tends to come on strong later in the fight. Simply put, Strader early or Anheliger late. The Canadian is the far better-polished product, but at this level of MMA, an early Strader bomb is a realistic possibility.
Belbita ...A toss-up between two limited fighters with extremely questionable fight IQs. Against passive fighters, such as Hannah Goldy, Belbita’s aggression on the feet sets an uncomfortable pace and claim the scorecards. If de Paula was able to more consistently use her length on the outside, she’d be a solid fighter, but largely her game plan lands in the clinch.
Skelly ITD & UNDER ...Skelly returns after a litany of injuries have forced the vet to sit out three years. Durable and a deep gas tank, Skelly may be a broken mess after so many injuries, but more likely is he returns with a classic grappling performance. Striegl’s striking in his debut was particularly worrying, strangely static and devoid of confidence – his overextended chin is primed for Skelly to hit one of his janky front kicks.
Rose-Clark Decision ...Egger is very slow and limited on the outside, Rose-Clark should be able to easily out-box Egger. As long as Rose-Clark opts to stick and move, refusing to fight in the pocket, Jessy Jess can pepper Egger with jabs for fifteen minutes. Rose-Clark has shown poor decision making before, however, and if Egger finds top position then the Swiss fighter is unlikely to be shifted off.
Onama and OVER ...Age and a long career do seem to be creeping up on Benitez who looked far more vulnerable against Billy Quarantillo than ever before. The brutal leg and body kicks remain, yet Onama’s crisp boxing will deny Benitez the space to unleash his kicks. Takedown defense and an inability to get back to his feet are areas that need rapid improvement, but Onama’s crisp left hook will rapidly build a highlight reel for the young pro.
Well fuck another winner I missed in Skelly ITD & UNDER...have to check start times closer in the future, but I get hung up cappin hoops and shit. Would have been 4-1 with correct calls on Bautista decision, Anheliger KO and Skelly ITD & UNDER...so likely 7-2 or so. No use crying over spilt milk...moving on with the other remaining prelim
4/2.23 DAVID ONAMA -179
1.36/6 DAVID ONAMA BY 3 RD DECISION +440
4.95/3 DAVID ONAMA vs GABRIEL BENITEZ over 1½ -165
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY (13-4) VS ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN (11-4)
Middleweight (185)
Buckley TKO Round 2 ...Alhassan looked all but finished before his stunning seventeen-second finish over Alessio Di Chirico. Three L’s in a row, with a particularly damning first-round KO to Khaos Williams, Alhassan looked without confidence vs Jacob Malkoun. Buckley could very easily walk onto an Alhassan bomb that shuts off the lights early. More likely, however, Buckley smartly grinds Alhassan against the cage in the R1 before exposing Alhassan’s faulty gas tank. If Malkoun can wrestle his way to a decision against Alhassan, so can Buckley.
JIM MILLER (33-16) VS NIKOLAS MOTTA (12-3)
Lightweight (155)
Miller Sub Round 1 ...Can Motta survive all of Miller’s savvy tricks in the opening round? There is no doubt that Motta’s heavy hands and sharp boxing combinations will piece apart a tiring Miller outside of R1. Miller has a large bag of tricks to coax opponents to the mat, however, and Motta’s vulnerability on the mat is too difficult to overlook. If Motta survives, however, a brutal KO could be waiting for the veteran.
PARKER PORTER (12-6) VS ALAN BAUDOT (8-2)
Heavyweight (265)
Porter KO ...Baudot surprised Tom Aspinall on the feet for the first minute of their bout, catching the English prospect with intercepting elbows and back fists. Porter’s chin has been regularly tested in the UFC and has shown decent survivability. Porter isn’t the heaviest hitter, but he will set an uncomfortable pace that will drain Baudot’s questionable gas tank. Porter via sweaty wrestling before a brutal bloody ground and pound finish.
Daukaus ...Against Pickett, a fighter devoid of confidence and far too willing to back himself into a corner, Daukaus will find a free avenue to grind Pickett down against the cage. Both Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes succeeded with superior physicality, and while Pickett is an athletic specimen, Daukaus’ consistency will keep Pickett from ever settling into a comfortable rhythm. There hasn’t been any evidence of Pickett digging deep to turn the tide in his four UFC fights – I wouldn’t expect it magically appearing against Daukaus.
Main Event
JOHNNY WALKER (18-6) VS JAMAHAL HILL (9-1)
Light Heavyweight (205)
Walker KO & UNDER ...My gut instinct believes this may be a five-round stinker. Whether it is Walker’s training with SBG or Hill’s lack of educated pressure, the scars of Santos/Walker loom large over this main event. Opting to listen to my heart, I am hoping for a stand-and-bang classic between two of the sloppier operators in the division. Eventually, Hill’s errant stance-switches will be punished. While Hill does regularly switch stances outside of the striking range, Walker can clear distance insanely fast and could be caught cold. That is an achievable goal for Walker, even with his recently adopted patient counter-punching style. I imagine early pressure from Hill will revert Walker to his natural chaos on the inside, where greater experience and clinch striking will piece up Hill. Hill’s superior durability and Walker’s paper chin add interesting dynamics, but in a mess of a fight, it’s easier to back the 6’5″ athletic freak.
