Fight Night ~ Nov 20

[mrpickem]

UFC Fight Night 198: Prelims

• Pinheiro ...Although Hughes is a gritty, roster filling fighter who boasts an incredible chin and relentless pressure. Unfortunately, Hughes is far too easy to takedown and her lack of angles when striking leaves it far too easy for opponents to stick and move. Pinheiro remains a somewhat unknown quantity, but the Brazilian looked a slick counter-puncher against Randa Markos. Her slick takedown reversals in particular lead me to believe that Hughes will struggle to impose a grapple heavy gameplan on the Brazilian.
• Soriano KO ...If Soriano can keep his butt off the mat, his experience against stronger opposition will shine brightly. While Soriano will always be at threat of falling to a sub, Nuerdanbieke lacks the striking ability to set up the takedown. Soriano will have total freedom on the feet and has shown the ability to set a hard pace on the feet before.
• 
  Durden Sub ...Aori looked very much the sum of his record when he fell to Jeff Molina on his debut. Although showcasing a ridiculous chin, Aori was pretty much limited to grinding Molina against the cage. Durden is a typical heavy-handed wrestler, with his low hands sure to cause Aori trouble as he conceals his powerful strikes and takedowns.
• Mckinney KO Round 1 ...McKinney possesses surprisingly sharp scrambling, which is a must for the crazy striker who regularly falls over pulling off wheel kicks, etc. Not that it should matter, Ziam is a one-pace fighter who isn’t the most comfortable with fighting off the back-foot. While the Frenchman’s chin isn’t paper, McKinney’s reckless abandon benefits his power as opponents can’t read which shot will land. If somehow, Ziam can escape the first-round unscathed – his technical approach with a variety of feints will slowly pull the Frenchman ahead on the scorecards.
• Lookboonmee Decision ...The tale of this fight will truly rest on whether Godinez can get her takedowns firing early. As seen against Luana Carolina, an extremely limited fighter, Godinez was at the mercy of the Brazilian after she was stuffed thirteen times. There will be opportunities to trip Lookboonmee during regular clinches, but any defensive frailties will be exploited violently by Lookboonmee’s cutting elbows.
• Levy ITD ...Just the third-ever fighter to hail from Israel, Natan Levy is an entertaining karate striker who will surely become a fan favorite before long. Levy showcased exceptional defensive grappling against Shaheen Santana on DWCS. Showcasing hard strikes in the clinch, takedown reversals and regular submissions, Rafa Garcia’s relentless pursuit of the takedown could easily walk himself into a Levy submission. The Mexican’s leg kicks and insane durability could make Levy’s debut slightly more troublesome than expected in the early rounds.
• Lutz ITD ...Neither man possesses an exceptional gas tank, yet Sabataini’s tendency to allow opponents to dictate the pace could be his downfall. A methodical striker, Lutz picks at opponents with single shots as he tries to draw them onto his loaded counters. Unless Sabatini can secure an early takedown, he will have to bank on his durability to wait for an opportunity to arise.

Definitely a letdown card after some of the great ones lately, but still there's a few money making spots today!

 

[mrpickem]

First 2...

[0-0 0u]

• 3/2.29 SAM HUGHES (W) vs LUANA PINHEIRO (W) over2½ -131
• 3/0.79 LUANA PINHEIRO (W) -380
• 2/0.74 SEAN SORIANO -271
• 2/2.80 SEAN SORIANO KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +140

 

[mrpickem]

[2-2 -0.92u]

• 3/1.86 CODY DURDEN -161
• 2/5.50 CODY DURDEN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +275

 

[mrpickem]

[3-3 -1.06u]

• 1.46/2 LOMA LOOKBOONMEE +137
• 1.29/2 LOMA LOOKBOONMEE DEC/TECH DEC +155
• 2.14/2 NATAN LEVY -107
• 1.45/4 NATAN LEVY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +275

 

[mrpickem]

[3-7 -7.4u]

• 5/4.07 TUCKER LUTZ -123
• 2.29/8 TUCKER LUTZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +350

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Fight Night 198: Main Card

• Yanez KO late ...The only way this doesn’t explode into a blood bath is if Grant opts to correctly fall back on his wrestling roots. It could be difficult for the Brit who has found a huge career resurgence on the back of his heavy hands, but Yanez is an extremely dangerous striker to trade with. Return to the style used against Grigory Popov, constantly seeking the takedown and holding his foe down, and Grant could work himself towards a meaningful fight. Unfortunately for Grant, Yanez’ struggles last time out came from Costa’s rangey jab. The Brit’s penchant for hook offers less resistance to Yanez entering the pocket, from where Yanez can do work breaking down Grant’s body before cracking the Brit’s chin.
• Wood Decision ...Santos as the exceptional athlete could easily walk Wood down and grind out yet another consistent performance on the mat. While Wood is a far superior technician on the feet, her decision-making is comically bad at times. Even with solid TDD and defensive grappling, Santos’ size is likely to prove too much for Wood if she ends up on her back. After watching Modafferi out-strike Santos, as well as find success in the clinch herself, Wood’s experience may prove key in slowing Santos’ rise.
• Yahya Decision ...An entertaining retirement match-up between two of the oldest fighters in the little-men's roster. Never the most athletic mixed martial artist during his physical prime, Yahya is effectively a one-round fighter in terms of peak threat. Against a heavy-handed opponent with strong grappling himself, Yahya’s chin is at risk of being checked on Saturday. Of course, Kang has a profound way of allowing opponents to fight their ideal fight. Backing Yahya to out-point Kang on the cards.
• Brady ITD ...An extremely well-matched bout, but Chiesa’s susceptibility to powerful wrestlers has been long noted. An immense threat once latched onto an opponent’s back, for everyone not named Vicente Luque it spells goodnight. Unfortunately for Chiesa, Brady heavier hands offer a greater transitionary distraction for the takedown. Brady’s pace should prove key. Brady has to push a hard volume on Chiesa to negate his opponent’s reach advantage. Brady’s lack of defensive layers are unlikely to prove an issue against Chiesa, a systematic striker with little creativity who won’t punish Brady’s overreliance on defensive footwork. The regular threat of sub s and chipping strikes from on top will wear on Chiesa and likley eventually opens up a path for a finish whether by sub or G&P.
• Tate ...Vieira emerges as the perfect opponent for Tate when the stats of her last fight are pulled. The Brazilian is a suffocating presence on top and is difficult to shift off, but her limited risk-taking poses little danger to opponents except dropping the round. Of greater concern is Vieira’s lack of options off her back. If Kunitskaya has the freedom to open up ground and pound, Tate will have no trouble punishing Vieira’s speculative submission attempts. Tate’s striking is still janky, falling into straight shots with her rigid upper body. The fear of eating shots, evident in the fights nearing her retirement, seems to have lessened. Granted, Reneau’s power isn’t comparable to Vieira, but Tate's level changes made it difficult for Reneau to time counters. Vieira’s durability is unquestionable, whereas we are yet to see if Tate 2.0 can eat a shot in her twilight. Backing Tate to break Vieira’s 92% TDD record and control the Brazilian for the majority of the bout in an underwhelming affair.

 

[skanless13]

Love Tate, Brady, and especially Yanez

 

[mrpickem]

[3-9 -14.69u]

• 5/1.89 Adrian Yanez -265
• 4/3.08 ADRIAN YANEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -130
• 1/6.00 ADRIAN YANEZ IN ROUND 3 +600

 

[skanless13]

How the fuck did one judge have it 30-27 Grant?!

 

[mrpickem]

[4-11 -17.8u]

• 2.50/8 JOANNE CALDERWOOD +320
• 1/3.75 JOANNE CALDERWOOD DEC/TECH DEC +375

 

[mrpickem]

• 3.1/2 KYUNG HO KANG vs RANI YAHYA over 2½ -155

 

[mrpickem]

[5-13 -19.3u]

• 8/4.82 SEAN BRADY -166
• 2.50/4 SEAN BRADY INSIDE DISTANCE +160

 

[mrpickem]

[6-14 -16.98u]

• 15/14.15 MIESHA TATE -106
• 1.71/3.0 MIESHA TATE DEC/TECH DEC +175

I guess my night is left up to "Cupcake".