Fight Night 203 / Vegas 50 ~ March 12
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 50: Early Prelims
- Murzakanov Early KO ...A fine pressure fighter to watch, Nchukwi relies on his chin to wade forward and keep opponents passive with volume. Against Murzakanov, a fighter who carries one-shot lights out power, it sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Russian is very light on volume, however, and there is always the potential that Nchukwi grinds out a win if his pressure denies Murzakanov the time or space to time his powerful counters.
- Moutinho KO ...Moutinho can be finished and will walk onto heavy shots from Cannetti early, but the safest back is that Moutinho’s pressure and pace rapidly breaks Cannetti. The Argentinian isn’t in a division where being forty-two years old is acceptable, despite all of Moutinho’s limitations. Likely late TKO.
- Lungiambula Decision ...A potential ‘loser leaves’ fight, Brundage should be favored as the more consistent striker and wrestler. Lungiambula, despite failing to piece together his game, has significant advantages on the feet and in the clinch. His power is likely to land on Brundage early, while Lungiambula’s freakish size has seen him hold his own against the cage.
Sabina Mazo (9-3) vs Miranda Maverick (9-4)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Maverick ...If it weren’t for some awkward decision-making by Maverick in her past two fights, this wouldn’t appear as close a match-up. To be honest, this should be a thoroughly dominant performance on the mat from the more physical, technical grappler in Maverick. Mazo is a fun fighter to watch with her insane pace and extended combinations on the outside, but she will struggle to stay standing in this match-up.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 50: Prelims
Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk
Featherweight (145)
Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk
Featherweight (145)
- Jackson ...Dismantling Charles Rosa was expected, and while it was a thoroughly dominant performance, Jackson’s limited athleticism was on show again. Kirk will be able to scramble with Jackson, especially considering his plus physicality, and may be able to crack Jackson into passivity on the feet. Kirk’s preference for fighting in the pocket will enable Jackson to pursue wrestling with greater ease and will prove the difference in this scrap.
Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat
Bantamweight (135)
Bantamweight (135)
- Jones KO ...With a similar approach on the feet as McGregor, minus the athleticism, Basharat appears to be a bad imitator at times. Albeit, racking up 11 wins, the confidence in Basharat’s striking is visible. We are yet to see how Basharat reacts to a powerful striker willing to engage on the counter beyond the first layer. Based on experience and quality of opposition, even with Jones’ limited output, the veteran has to be the pick.
JJ Aldrich vs Gillian Robertson
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Robertson Decision ...JJ Aldrich is a testament to how far a fighter can make it in WMMA based on hard work and relentless grit. Against Robertson, Aldrich owns the TDD and vastly superior striking to punish the Canadian. An inability to press an advantage, however, will see Robertson’s chin allowing her to eventually find the opportunity to grapple. Tossup may not be worth a play or over maybe.
Matt Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher
Welterweight (170)
Welterweight (170)
- Fletcher Decision ...A dinosaur of a build, Fletcher makes up for his short reach with freakish explosivity. There is no nuance to the striking, perhaps because Fletcher lacks any form of jab, but he makes up for it with grappling expertise. Semelsberger carries the power to make his 8″ reach advantage count, but he's only been knocking out random cans littering the WW roster. The uninspired manner of Semelsberger’s loss to Khaos Williams leaves me favoring Fletcher’s wrestling advantage to ground out a decision.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
What happened in the Mutinho fight? I missed it.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Damn, I missed Maverick fight too. She win?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Maverick by sub
Mutinho looked good at first but got KO's
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Nice. Good. Had $$ on Mm. Somehow missed it. Thank you
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
You thinking Santos has a shot as a big dog?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Probably not
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
It’s so weird. He’s looked like such a different fighter since his surgery.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 50: Main Card
Bruno Silva vs Alex Pereira
Middleweight (185)
Bruno Silva vs Alex Pereira
Middleweight (185)
- Pereira KO ...Potentially a brutal, bloody affair awaits. For all the hype that follows Alex Pereira, his striking defense is flawed enough that Bruno Silva’s nuclear power could shock the odds. Likewise, Silva isn’t the strongest wrestler, yet even Andreas Michailidis was able to dominate a full round on the mat against Pereira. Against a striker as consistent as Pereira in regards to pace and volume, Silva lacks the defensive wherewithal to weather the storm.
Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney
Lightweight (155)
Lightweight (155)
- Dober Decision ...There is a very real possibility that McKinney blasts Dober out of the water early. Freakish speed in regards to striking and wrestling could catch Dober unaware, especially with the tidal wave of confidence that the prospect is riding. Experience has to count for something, however. Dober’s iron chin has held up to Riddell/Haqparast/Dariush, while his offensive wrestling can raise several questions of McKinney deeper into the fight. It all feels a little too much, too soon, for a fighter who suffered back-to-back losses to Sean Woodson and Darrick Minner at the close of 2019.
Khalil Rountree vs Karl Roberson
Light Heavyweight (205)
- Roberson ITD, likely Sub ...Rountree remains a powerful kickboxer despite all his mental flaws, with his leg kicks (oblique kicks in particular) likely to cause real issues for Roberson. Not that Roberson should spend much time on the feet. The former kickboxer can handle himself, but the wrestling differential is stark. Either man could starch the other early, especially as both individuals often bring the very worst gameplans to the octagon, but Rountree’s mental booms are too explosive to overlook.
Alex Caceres vs Sodqif Yusuff
Featherweight (145)
Featherweight (145)
- Yusuff Decision ...A crafty striker, Caceres lands based on natural reads rather than setting up traps or logically breaking down a gameplan. That sort of skill only emerges in fighters like Caceres who spend large amounts of time in the octagon. Unfortunately, despite twenty-five fights with the UFC, Caceres has regularly shown a knack for walking onto heavy artillery. In the case of Yusuff’s explosive power, it could prove a game-changer. While Yusuff’s lack of cage-cutting was exposed by Allen’s fluid footwork, Caceres has too regularly shown mental flaws to back the veteran to consistently work off the back-foot.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Co-Main Event
Marlon Moraes vs Yadong Song
Bantamweight (135)
Marlon Moraes vs Yadong Song
Bantamweight (135)
- Yadong ...I really love Marlon Moraes, but even with his first-round potency reappearing against Merab Dvalishvili, it is too difficult to see the Brazilian breaking Yadong’s granite chin. Yadong has taken great strides in developing his boxing, and whilst nowhere near the level required to jab Moraes’ face-off ala Rob Font, there is a defensive layer that should prevent the prospect from hitting the haystack early. Moraes’ gas tank has long been awful, but his recently worrying mental collapses indicate irreparable damage. If Yadong survives a punishing round one, a tiring Moraes will struggle to handle his hard-paced wrestling threat.
[8-14 -20.67u]
- 5/1.75 YADONG SONG -285
- 1.63/2 MARLON MORAES vs YADONG SONG under 1½ +123
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 50: Main Event
Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev
Light Heavyweight (205)
Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev
Light Heavyweight (205)
- Ankalaev ITD ...38 years old, barely spluttering past a 3-fight slide and a long punishing career littered with injuries – it’s time we have a realistic discussion about Santos’ future at the top of LHW. The Brazilian’s chin hasn’t shown any issues at 205 lbs, while his explosive striking on the feet remains a handful for anyone. The real worry is that Santos has exhibited far more passive striking performances in his past two fights, indicating the knee injuries have denied Santos the dynamism and fast-twitch bursts that found the wins. Ankalaev isn’t the most fluid striker in terms of aesthetics, but there is a clear method behind the madness. Capable of building layers behind his jab, Ankalaev also surprisingly excels at timing counters with efficient single-shots. On the mat is where the fight extends beyond Santos’ reach. Unable to set a grueling pace on the feet, Ankalaev will be able to safely time his takedowns and assume a dominant top position. Ground and pound will open up a host of submissions in Ankalaev’s arsenal.
- 5/5.00 MAGOMED ANKALAEV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
- 3/2.14 NO - ROUND 5 STARTS -140
