Federer - Nadal Sets

GridironGems

The Mel Kiper of CTG
At BM you can get sets at 3 for +150, 4 at +160, and 5 sets at +175.

I don't see this being a sweep 3-0, so thinking of hitting the 4 and 5 sets at plus money, as long as it doesn't go 3-0, i'll make some money. Thoughts??
 
Grid, I think Feds is the only one capable of pulling off the 3-0 sweep, due to Nadal's potential fatigue issues. Also, if Feds wins the first two sets, I doubt Nadal will muster up the reserve to win the 3rd, as Feds is about the best front-runner...ever. So you have to watch out for that.

I would be totally shocked if Nadal won 3-0.

Interesting BM put 3 sets as the most likely outcome; I would disagree with that as well. I personally think Feds wins this in 4 sets, so I would probably shade that side.

You are risking a fair amt to win a little amt, so you really have to weigh the options and likelihood of Feds taking this in 3; unfortunately, can't get an indication of Nadal's physical condition may or may not happen prior to the match...if Nadal is fit, this bet is a winner IMO.
 
I agree it would be foolish to rule out a 3 setter, but no because of fatigue. That last match was Nadal's first extended one otherwise he had an easy run to that point, and he's a fit guy. it'd have taken a succession of extended matches to have fitness concerns about him.

the real point is you have a guy on his worst surface (hardcourt) playing his first ever GS final on said surface vs a guy who has won 8 of the last 10 GS hardcourt titles, and the latter somehow can't win 3-0?

BTW, they are shitty odds for 3-2.
 
Took Federer -170 to win 1 unit. Federer's serve should be a big advantage here inside on hard court. Throw in Federer has dominated this tournament and is playing in great form right now, while Nadal just had a 5 set survival match that was actually played after Federer's match, and Federer has a huge advantage here.
 
Hmmm Nadal has been closing in on Fed on Grass and on the hardcourts moreso than Federer closing in on Nadal on Clay.

And this fatigue crap...I don't buy it, Nadal is an extremely well conditioned athlete and if you ask me if he was playing the next day after the Verdasco match then yes that would be a problem, but hell the post match conference....he looked fresh.
He is one of the most well conditioned players on tour, his game is matched to play longer games and grind for points.
 
And this fatigue crap...I don't buy it

if u don't think fatigue is an issue, Nadal at good + money should be a no-brainer...
 
And this fatigue crap...I don't buy it

if u don't think fatigue is an issue, Nadal at good + money should be a no-brainer...

I might have too.

Like seriously, Nadal has drastically improved, Fed has drastically dropped from his standard.

I don't like Nadal's style but damn it is very very annoying.

The way to beat Fed....get to his head.

Nadal's mentality is stronger

Fed's technique is superior

Condition? Give the advantage to Nadal

At the end of the day, this should be a pick on hardcourts. On grass, Fed is favored, on Clay, Nadal is favored, but I have seen Nadal's gradual improvement on the hardcourts and we saw last year on Grass, Nadal learns quick, thought Fed would walk all over him...dont' think so.

Revenge for Fed? Maybe but these two probably hate each seeing each other.
 
going wait till in game on this one, the body language on both players will be crucial.

Fed needs to make quick work of Nadal because the longer this match goes Nadal can get really frustrating to defeat.

Yes revenge is on Fed's mind, having being pasted on Clay during Roland Garros and losing out on his beloved Wimbledon, Fed definitely has a statement to make.
But you also have to start considering, is Fed starting to lose grasp and only think about getting 15 GS Titles or is he taking this as another title shot.
 
i know roddick is overrated and is not even deserving of being a top seed at times, but did u see how fed man handled him? I think form and confidence are a huge checkmark for him here... i think u have to throw out value here and ask yourself who will more then likely win..
 
i know roddick is overrated and is not even deserving of being a top seed at times, but did u see how fed man handled him? I think form and confidence are a huge checkmark for him here... i think u have to throw out value here and ask yourself who will more then likely win..

What's wrong with Nadal's form and confidence?

You do realize what a major relief it is to win a 5+ hour 5 set match? You gain more confidence knowing you have gone the distance and prevail. How would you feel if you played that long, trained that hard, went through the tourney that far to lose on in the 5th set?
How would you feel if you were grinding and toughening it out for 5 hours and then win?

Federer is very calm but it can also be mistaken for laziness.
Nadal you can see his intensity in EVERY GAME he plays, be it first round, second round, etc.

Federer has always dominated Roddick so the comparison on their h2h should be thrown out the window...

Nadal is that thorn on Federer's butt. He has emerged at the wrong time in Fed's eyes, had Nadal not been around the last 4 years, Fed would have won a complete grand slam by now.

There is no value on Fed because you have yet to poin tout any decent factors to paying that sort of amount of juice.

I've seen enough of Federer and enough of Nadal to know each other's games well enough. Heck you might want to check up on Federer's line vs Nadal in Wimbledon.

Reading the Australian press and many blogs, there are a lot of upset individuals in regards to the Women's finals.
Another quick match is not what the organizers want.
 
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Nadal has openly admitted, Federer has the advantage so he knows he's the underdog here.

Now that interview was conducted after the 5 hour match and that press conference was shortly after...does he look like he played a 5 hour competitve match or a 5 hour pilate's class?
 
fuck, lost my post..

but basically, fed is the kind of guy who is on the lazier side but likes to develop his momentum throughout the tourney. Nadal is the intense one who gives it a great effort every match. Fed has indeed been progressively been improving and is nearing the apex of his game. Not that many mistakes to speak of in the Roddy match, despite the clearly inferior opponent.

Fed has the surface advantage. The later start time will also lessen some of Nadal's topspin as the conditions are heavier. I like nadal, but in my eyes, its like a kobe versus KG. Offense vs. defense. Smooth killer vs. fire. And last match, we saw what happenned. Fed got caught with his pants down. I really hate revenge angle in all sports and that coupled with a surface advantage and fatigue that nadal incurred, its hard to back rafa... Im looking at it like any other sport. Bet against teams that played OT and have court disadvantage..
 
rafa is in great shape, i agree. He is a great player. I would not be surprised if he came out with a victory tonight. I would definitely learn from it. But you and me, as someone that's probably played sports, fatigue usually comes the day after.. we'll see soon enough.. gl bro
 
Offense vs Defense....in the end who won? Defense and that's what Nadal has.

Brad Gilbert...man oh man what a complete douche bag.

He claims that Nadal is absolutely beaten down and spent, said that he has some blisters building up on his left hand.

I have yet to see one other person really think Nadal has a shot here. Nadal against the odds. I prefer Nadal as an underdog actually, when you force a player like him to grind, you will be made to work. A 3-0 set for Fed? Why? Just because he played 5 hours of tennis? Hmmm I don't know, these guys are PROFESSIONAL athletes, and sometimes if you do get too much rest you end up being rusty. Perhaps Nadal did play too long and that he has a shorter rest time, but he will be much more in game mode than Fed who might of been pissing himself.

This is the final that everyone wanted to see, this is the Final that Federer wanted. Nadal could careless, he's out there to win, I think Federer is putting more pressure on himself wanting Nadal in the final just because he wants to prove a point that he can get that prick out of his ass and win a GS Final against Nadal.
 
not saying you're wrong mike.. Nadal could very well win...but fed has only gave up 3 breakpoint chances in his last 2 matches and saved them all. Hard to argue that he is not a great defender when called on either.. anyhow, im gonna learn something here. good luck tonight.
 
rafa is in great shape, i agree. He is a great player. I would not be surprised if he came out with a victory tonight. I would definitely learn from it. But you and me, as someone that's probably played sports, fatigue usually comes the day after.. we'll see soon enough.. gl bro

Been trying to find interviews for Nadal the day after the match but no luck. You are right, the day after is KEY in determining the condition of the player....but man oh man when you got trainers at your disposal by the snap of the finger....what effect do you really feel?

My main concern with Nadal will be his blisters if they really are as bad as Brad Gilbert makes them out to be.
 
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