Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview Article

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Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Federated Auto Parts 400
Sunday, August 14, 2022 at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia

Last Week's Race

The FireKeepers Casino 400 took place off the highway near Brooklyn in Michigan.

It was easy to forget how reliable of a winner Kevin Harvick used to be.

Perhaps it seems hard to believe now that his dominance was a fact only a few years ago.

Before last week's race, though, he had gone 65 races without a win.

Historically, Harvick has thrived in Michigan.

He thrived once again in Michigan's racetrack, pulling into the lead with 35 laps to go and never letting go.

Harvick won by nearly a three-second margin, securing his spot in the playoffs while keeping Bubba Wallace, who finished second, from doing the same.

In addition to Harvick ensuring his playoff existence, Harvick imperiled Martin Truex Jr.'s playoff chances.

The latter now sits below the cutoff line.

Whereas Harvick ranks 13th in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings, Truex Jr. ranks 17th,

As for the table leader, Chase Elliott does still remain on top.

But, after enjoying a hot stretch of performances, he has now failed to break into the top 10 in two consecutive races.

Race Info

This week, the Federated Auto Parts 400 takes place at the Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps, hence the name of the race.

As is almost always the case, there will be three stages for this event.

Stage 1 terminates upon completion of the 70th lap.

Stage 2 requires drivers to complete 160 more laps.

Stage 3 consists in the final 70 laps.

Entry List

The entry list for the upcoming race is published by the middle of the week.

For this week's entry list, 36 teams/drivers out of 40 possible spots are posted.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will compete in this race.

We may expect all the usual suspects.

The Starting Lineup

As for the starting lineup, the order in which drivers start the race gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying will take place on Saturday, the day before the race.

It starts at 5:50 p.m. ET and ends at 7 p.m. ET.

In terms of format, qualifying will be two groups, single-vehicle, two laps, and two rounds.

Practice will directly precede qualifying.

On Saturday, practice will be on Saturday from 5 p.m. ET to 5:50 p.m. ET and it will be two groups.

Track Info

This week's racetrack, the Richmond Raceway, is known for being tough for drivers to make passes.

So, if the guy we like starts the race off in strong position, then we can justifiably make our wager a bit larger than usual.

Formerly known as the "Action Track," Richmond hasn't seen caution flags like it used to.

Instead, this track is playing out more like an intermediate track.

But Richmond remains on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit as an increasing rarity, a short track.

Each lap at Richmond Raceway is 0.75 miles.

So, in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 300 miles.

This track is D-shaped and has an asphalt surface.

Its banking is rather mild in extent.

The turns are banked at 14 degrees, the frontstretch at an actually solid eight degrees, and the backstretch at two degrees.

Drivers I Dislike

I recommend going against Chase Elliott, who has hit a cold spell with his two straight finishes outside the top 10.

The odds for Elliott to win just aren't attractive given his current form.

Plus, historically, he is very hit-or-miss at this track.

While Martin Truex Jr., has a much better history at this track, he hasn't won a race all year.

His current season cannot justify the generous odds that oddsmakers are giving him.

My Guy

For this race, I like William Byron.

He is having his best season ever, ranking fourth.

His strong season combined with his burgeoning confidence at this venue -- he has finished top-seven in two of his last three tries at this track -- gives him great value given the current odds.

Best Bet: William Byron Outright at +1600 with Bovada
 
Bets so far for today:

1 unit:

Hamlin -115 over Kyle Busch (BAS)
Logano -120 over Bubba (BAS)
Bowman -115 over Bubba (BAS)
Haley -120 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Cindric +115 over Briscoe (BAS)
Almirola -115 over Suarez (BAS)

$10 Almirola to win +4000 (BAS)
 
Last edited:
Added:

1 unit:
Austin Dillon -105 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Keselowski -110 over Erik Jones (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Keselowski Top 10 +180 (Bovada)
 
Qualifying was weird yesterday. The cars that went out first had really bad times due to the track changing. Almirola, Kyle Busch, and Cindric, all qualified early and had bad times but were good in practice.

I think this is Hamlin's race to lose but Truex needs to win it.
 
I also split a 0.5 unit on 2 Hamlin bets:

0.25 units:

Hamlin to win Stage 1 +400 (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +400 (Bovada)
 
Added another unit on Hamlin -120 over Kyle Busch (BAS)

Considering some more anti-Bubba bets:
Suarez +105 over Bubba
Gibbs +110 over Bubba
 
Qualifying was weird yesterday. The cars that went out first had really bad times due to the track changing. Almirola, Kyle Busch, and Cindric, all qualified early and had bad times but were good in practice.

I think this is Hamlin's race to lose but Truex needs to win it.
If Truex doesn't win I'd be a bit surprised
 
Added another unit on:

Keselowski +100 over Erik Jones
Austin Dillon +100 over Erik Jones
 
It does not look like BM will put any matchups. Here are the plays posted above:

2 units:
Hamlin -115 &-120 over Kyle Busch (BAS)
Austin Dillon -105 &+100 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Keselowski -110 & +100 over Erik Jones (BAS)

1 unit:
Logano -120 over Bubba (BAS)
Bowman -115 over Bubba (BAS)
Haley -120 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Cindric +115 over Briscoe (BAS)
Almirola -115 over Suarez (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Keselowski Top 10 +180 (Bovada)

0.25 unit:
Hamlin to win Stage 1 +400 (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +400 (Bovada)

$10 Almirola to win +4000
 
It does not look like BM will put any matchups. Here are the plays posted above:

2 units:
Hamlin -115 &-120 over Kyle Busch (BAS)
Austin Dillon -105 &+100 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Keselowski -110 & +100 over Erik Jones (BAS)

1 unit:
Logano -120 over Bubba (BAS)
Bowman -115 over Bubba (BAS)
Haley -120 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Cindric +115 over Briscoe (BAS)
Almirola -115 over Suarez (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Keselowski Top 10 +180 (Bovada)

0.25 unit:
Hamlin to win Stage 1 +400 (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +400 (Bovada)

$10 Almirola to win +4000
+7.75 units
 
Richmond:
Cup +7.75 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +10.87 units
Cup +53.14 units
Both +64.01 units
 
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