Federated Auto Parts 400: Top NASCAR Bet
NASCAR Cup Series: Federated Auto Parts 400
Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia
The Playoffs Continue
Last race — at Darlington — was the first race in the Round of 16.
This round contains two more races, the second of which takes place this Saturday at Richmond Raceway.
Race Info
The Federated Auto Parts 400 is so-called because drivers need to complete 400 laps.
There are three Stages. Stage 1 and Stage 2 are both 100 laps each. The final Stage requires 200 laps.
Richmond Raceway
In completing 400 laps, drivers accumulate 300 miles because every lap is three-quarters of a mile long.
As such, Richmond counts as a short track. In fact, it brands itself as „America’s Premier Short Track.“
In viewing its structure, its shape resembles a D-like oval.
Richmond's turns have a moderate degree of banking — 14 degrees each. Its front-stretch has eight degrees of banking, which seems unusually high, and its backstretch has two degrees of banking.
Difficult To Pass
The biggest thing to know about Richmond Raceway is that it is very difficult to pass.
Drivers have been open in expressing their hope not to start towards the back.
Much of the reasoning has to do with the effect of aerodynamics on the cars.
Starting Lineup
Given these details about passing at Richmond, it’s important to remember how starting lineups get determined in the playoffs.
NASCAR officials are no longer performing random draws.
Instead, there is a weighting system. 35 percent of the calculation is a team’s place in the owner’s standings. 15 percent is a driver’s fastest lap in the previous race. 50 percent is a driver’s finish in the previous race.
Because the driver’s finishing position in his last race is most important, we’re going to need to stay away from investing in Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.
Both were involved in a crash at Darlington — which is probably Truex Jr.’s fault for being too aggressive — which cost them dearly in terms of finishing position.
It’s true that playoff drivers will start ahead of all the non-playoff drivers. But still, because Elliott finished 20th and Truex Jr. finished 22nd, each one’s starting position will be far from ideal.
Ruling Out Candidates
I can’t believe that Kevin Harvick again found a way to win another race. Certainly, a victory seemed unlikely and he depended on Truex Jr. and Elliott crashing.
But Harvick’s race history at Richmond is less than convincing. He hasn’t won at the track since 2013 when he drove as a member of a different racing team.
I expect him to be among the favored drivers due to his recent performances and his season accolades.
Yet it’s hard to expect a driver to win back-to-back. For all of his wins this year, Harvick has only won consecutive races one time and both races were at the same track as part of a doubleheader.
Unofficially, Truex Jr. will start at 14th. I had really liked him because of his positive recent history at this track.
However, in each of his last three very solid finishes at Richmond, he started in the top-eight and usually better. 14th is too much of a starting deficit for him.
My Favorite Driver
I want to invest in Joey Logano. He’ll start in second place.
Logano has this interesting trend of bouncing back from a previous poor performance at Richmond.
In 2012, which is when this trend begins, he finished 30th at Richmond. He then finished third in his next attempt at this track.
After each of his last four finishes at Richmond where he finished 10th or worse, he finished top-three in his next race at Richmond.
While his overall average finishing position at this track is unimpressive, this stat reflects his earliest races here.
It would be silly to punish him for performances before 2013.
Typically, he’s been strong at this track especially recently. Four of his last six races at Richmond resulted in top-four finishes. Three of those were top-two including one win. He has two career wins at this track.
Overall, Logano has been consistent and he stepped up his game at Darlington with a third-place finish. He brings good overall form into a venue and situation that’s uniquely promising for him.
The Verdict
Joey Logano will be underrated by oddsmakers because he doesn’t have some of the overall numbers that other drivers do.
But when we zero in on the more important statistics — like recent driver history at this track — and on meaningful trends, then we find massive appeal in betting on Logano.
Best Bet: Joey Logano To Win (Odds TBA)
NASCAR Cup Series: Federated Auto Parts 400
Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia
The Playoffs Continue
Last race — at Darlington — was the first race in the Round of 16.
This round contains two more races, the second of which takes place this Saturday at Richmond Raceway.
Race Info
The Federated Auto Parts 400 is so-called because drivers need to complete 400 laps.
There are three Stages. Stage 1 and Stage 2 are both 100 laps each. The final Stage requires 200 laps.
Richmond Raceway
In completing 400 laps, drivers accumulate 300 miles because every lap is three-quarters of a mile long.
As such, Richmond counts as a short track. In fact, it brands itself as „America’s Premier Short Track.“
In viewing its structure, its shape resembles a D-like oval.
Richmond's turns have a moderate degree of banking — 14 degrees each. Its front-stretch has eight degrees of banking, which seems unusually high, and its backstretch has two degrees of banking.
Difficult To Pass
The biggest thing to know about Richmond Raceway is that it is very difficult to pass.
Drivers have been open in expressing their hope not to start towards the back.
Much of the reasoning has to do with the effect of aerodynamics on the cars.
Starting Lineup
Given these details about passing at Richmond, it’s important to remember how starting lineups get determined in the playoffs.
NASCAR officials are no longer performing random draws.
Instead, there is a weighting system. 35 percent of the calculation is a team’s place in the owner’s standings. 15 percent is a driver’s fastest lap in the previous race. 50 percent is a driver’s finish in the previous race.
Because the driver’s finishing position in his last race is most important, we’re going to need to stay away from investing in Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.
Both were involved in a crash at Darlington — which is probably Truex Jr.’s fault for being too aggressive — which cost them dearly in terms of finishing position.
It’s true that playoff drivers will start ahead of all the non-playoff drivers. But still, because Elliott finished 20th and Truex Jr. finished 22nd, each one’s starting position will be far from ideal.
Ruling Out Candidates
I can’t believe that Kevin Harvick again found a way to win another race. Certainly, a victory seemed unlikely and he depended on Truex Jr. and Elliott crashing.
But Harvick’s race history at Richmond is less than convincing. He hasn’t won at the track since 2013 when he drove as a member of a different racing team.
I expect him to be among the favored drivers due to his recent performances and his season accolades.
Yet it’s hard to expect a driver to win back-to-back. For all of his wins this year, Harvick has only won consecutive races one time and both races were at the same track as part of a doubleheader.
Unofficially, Truex Jr. will start at 14th. I had really liked him because of his positive recent history at this track.
However, in each of his last three very solid finishes at Richmond, he started in the top-eight and usually better. 14th is too much of a starting deficit for him.
My Favorite Driver
I want to invest in Joey Logano. He’ll start in second place.
Logano has this interesting trend of bouncing back from a previous poor performance at Richmond.
In 2012, which is when this trend begins, he finished 30th at Richmond. He then finished third in his next attempt at this track.
After each of his last four finishes at Richmond where he finished 10th or worse, he finished top-three in his next race at Richmond.
While his overall average finishing position at this track is unimpressive, this stat reflects his earliest races here.
It would be silly to punish him for performances before 2013.
Typically, he’s been strong at this track especially recently. Four of his last six races at Richmond resulted in top-four finishes. Three of those were top-two including one win. He has two career wins at this track.
Overall, Logano has been consistent and he stepped up his game at Darlington with a third-place finish. He brings good overall form into a venue and situation that’s uniquely promising for him.
The Verdict
Joey Logano will be underrated by oddsmakers because he doesn’t have some of the overall numbers that other drivers do.
But when we zero in on the more important statistics — like recent driver history at this track — and on meaningful trends, then we find massive appeal in betting on Logano.
Best Bet: Joey Logano To Win (Odds TBA)
