Federated Auto Parts 400 (2x) Preview Article

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Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Richmond Raceway in Henrico County, Virginia

Playoff Update


We are still in the Round of 16. This next race will be the second race of this round. There are three total races for the Round of 16. After this round, four drivers will be eliminated.

So far, Denny Hamlin has clinched his spot in the next round because he won the last race, which was the first race of the playoffs.

When we consider which drivers to invest in, Hamlin won't be an option simply because he has less to compete for.

Race Info

For Saturday's competition in Richmond, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps.

As is usually the case, there will be three stages for this event.

Stage 1 concludes upon completion of the 80th lap. Stage 2 finishes when drivers complete 235 laps. The remaining 165 laps make up Stage 3.

An entry list has already been published for this event. There are 37 drivers/teams listed on it. So barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know who will participate in this race.

The starting lineup gets published every Wednesday morning. NASCAR drivers are already quite familiar with the racetrack at Richmond (technically just outside of Richmond). This familiarity removes the need for qualifying or practice to take place. Instead, a predetermined formula will determine who starts in what position.

Track Info

Richmond International Raceway has great appeal for all NASCAR fans, but it may also have more appeal to the casual observer.

This appeal derives from two aspects of this track: one, it is short and, two, it is fast.

Richmond's track is unique because it is rather short but races like a superspeedway. This track, therefore, contains the best of both worlds that a casual observer will be entertained by.

The reason for this unique combination -- short track and fast speeds -- is the D-shape of the track. A unique track shape creates unique results.

This track may be fun for spectators, but it can be a difficult one for drivers. Cars rather easily lose their handling ability at this track.

Drivers need to make good use of their experience at Richmond in order to maintain traction especially when navigating Richmond's funky corners.

Handling is all the more important in view of the increased risk of tire degradation, which could prompt the need for more pit stops.

Each lap in Richmond requires .75 miles. So in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 300 miles.

There is a moderate degree of banking here: the turns are banked at 14 degrees, the backstretch at a relatively solid eight degrees, and the frontstretch at two degrees.

Drivers To Avoid

Be sure to avoid investing in Kurt Busch. His current spot in the standings may make him seem like a strong candidate in general.

However, his history at this track is awful. He has finished outside the top 10 in each of his last six tries here.

Because he consistently performs poorly here, his average finishing position at Richmond is 15.25.

Consistency is an important trait to consider because it provides a historically well-supported window into the future. Busch's consistent failures in Richmond make him worth going against in match-up betting.

My Guy

For match-ups, I like Aric Almirola over Kurt Busch because Almirola is historically more capable of finishing top-10 here.

Richmond is one of Almirola's stronger tracks based on average finishing position.

Almirola will also have more urgency as, based on his spot in the standings, he is really in need of a good performance -- especially after his silly effort last week.

Best Bet: Almirola over Busch at -125 with Bovada
 
Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Richmond Raceway in Henrico County, Virginia

Playoff Update


We are in the second race of the Round of 16. There are three races for the Round of 16, after which 12 of the original 16 drivers will remain.

Denny Hamlin is the only driver who, at the moment, has clinched his spot in the next round. He won the last race, which made him an automatic qualifier for the Round of 12.

When we review the possible bets that we can place, we won't be investing in Hamlin since he must have less motivation.

Race Info

D
rivers must complete a total of 400 laps for Saturday's race in Richmond.

There will be three stages for this event.

Stage 1 requires 80 laps. Stage 2 finishes when drivers finish 235 laps. The remaining 165 laps in the race make up Stage 3.

As has always been the case, an entry list has already been published for this event. This entry list shows 37 drivers/teams. So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know who the competitors in this race will be.

The starting lineup gets published every Wednesday morning.

Because NASCAR drivers are already familiar with Richmond Raceway, there isn't any need for qualifying or practice. Instead, a predetermined formula will determine the order of the starting lineup.

Track Info

Richmond Raceway has great appeal for all NASCAR fans.

This appeal stems from two aspects of this track: it is short and it is fast.

Being short and fast is unusual for a track. The superspeedways have long straightaways that give drivers longer opportunities to gain in speed.

The reason for Richmond's unique combination of short and fast is the track's D-shape.

While this track may be exciting to see drivers compete on, it is a tough one for both drivers and their cars.

Drivers rely on their experience at Richmond to maintain traction especially when navigating Richmond's funky corners. They need to prepare their cars to have high-quality handling.

The fact that tires are statistically more likely to wear down faster at this track makes good handling an all the more necessary virtue.

Each lap in Richmond is .75 miles-long. So in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 300 miles.

As for banking, each turn is banked at 14 degrees. The backstretch is banked at a solid eight degrees and the frontstretch at two degrees.

Drivers To Avoid

I recommend skepticism towards Kyle Larson. I get that it might seem hard to go against him in match-up betting because he has been so fast this year.

But it's hard to like him at this track. In six tries at Richmond, he has zero wins and zero top-five finishes. There are plenty of other tracks to trust Larson in and Richmond is not one of them.

My Guy

I value consistency because consistency equates to reliability and I want to invest in driers who I can rely on.

Martin Truex Jr. has been consistently solid at this track as, since his early-career struggles at Richmond, he has clearly figured things out.

He has produced five straight top-five finishes at this track.

Moreover, tellingly, out of all active NASCAR Cup Series competitors, Truex Jr. owns by far the best driver rating at this track.

Truex Jr. needs to perform well today because he, unlike Hamlin, has not clinched his spot in the next round.

Both the situation and driver history call for Truex Jr. to outduel Hamlin.

Driver history also calls for us to expect a solid finish from Truex Jr.

Best Bet: Truex Jr. over Hamlin at -150 with Bovada & Truex Jr. Top 3 Finish at +130 with Bovada
 
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