Farm's December 23rd
- Thread starter The Farm
- Start date
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
easy Over - BOL w/Denver, Farm:cheers:
Here I am Farm!!! What's up bro?
Figured I chip in something. Take it for what it's worth my decision making has been terrible of late but looking at the data hasnt been an issue. Anyway.......
Real shit spot for Denver IMO. I think we agree they havent played very well past few games. The Lakers whipped them nice at home but then they responded by winning in Dallas who has been lackluster IMO as well , then these same shorthanded Kings gave them a game , then NO came in and lead for about 3 quarters before falling late , started fast and faded vs a shorthanded SA squad , beat down by a streaking Blazer squad , struggled to double OT with Houston , then shorthanded played well @ Portland but choked and lost.
My feeling is this being the 3rd game in 4 days creates a flat spot. Since they had two extremely tough games in the B2B situation then rest before going to Sac. The OT thriller with Houston which Carter hit a shot to win it by 1 and then leading most of the way and losing @ portland shorthanded with payback. It appears Camby and K-Mart are out on a team already missing Nene and Hunter.
I think DEN has expended alot of energy past few games and are shorthanded. Typically I prefer to fade teams of East / West Coast trips but Sac has 3 days rest to adjust and settle in. They also started clicking on the trip going 3-2 playing solid 1st H @ Boston and Wash before fading in the 2nd H. They hammered NJ and Milw to conclude the trip. Stroking it from THREE.....
You can see today they adjusted some lines. Houston playing in 4th in 5 they made 7.5 after just being -3...they seemed to pump up Orlando to ( probably due more to BOS play and ORL get smoked by Utah )...so if the line seems funny thats why there is a method to there madness and for all those sheep who talk about fading the public this would probably be a spot I would use that theory. Opened at 3 bet down to 2.5 with seemingly heavy Den action and then ADJUSTED to -3.5 when it became clearer those guys probably wouldnt play...
I thought to myself what a great spot to play DEN and fade Sac till I looked at the big picture. And this...Denver, though, did win its last visit to Sacramento - 113-101 on March 11 - after losing 20 straight trips there dating to Jan. 7, 1997. So 1-20 SU last 21 trips to ARCO against a team playing well.....value in the line....clearly not but sometimes yo have to read bewteen the lines....My guess is we see a flat DEN squad over relying on Melo and AI to get it done while SAC seems very happy to be home for the holidays and playing well...
Good Luck here...I had to nibble on Sac here -2.5/-3....:cheers:
Figured I chip in something. Take it for what it's worth my decision making has been terrible of late but looking at the data hasnt been an issue. Anyway.......
Real shit spot for Denver IMO. I think we agree they havent played very well past few games. The Lakers whipped them nice at home but then they responded by winning in Dallas who has been lackluster IMO as well , then these same shorthanded Kings gave them a game , then NO came in and lead for about 3 quarters before falling late , started fast and faded vs a shorthanded SA squad , beat down by a streaking Blazer squad , struggled to double OT with Houston , then shorthanded played well @ Portland but choked and lost.
My feeling is this being the 3rd game in 4 days creates a flat spot. Since they had two extremely tough games in the B2B situation then rest before going to Sac. The OT thriller with Houston which Carter hit a shot to win it by 1 and then leading most of the way and losing @ portland shorthanded with payback. It appears Camby and K-Mart are out on a team already missing Nene and Hunter.
I think DEN has expended alot of energy past few games and are shorthanded. Typically I prefer to fade teams of East / West Coast trips but Sac has 3 days rest to adjust and settle in. They also started clicking on the trip going 3-2 playing solid 1st H @ Boston and Wash before fading in the 2nd H. They hammered NJ and Milw to conclude the trip. Stroking it from THREE.....
You can see today they adjusted some lines. Houston playing in 4th in 5 they made 7.5 after just being -3...they seemed to pump up Orlando to ( probably due more to BOS play and ORL get smoked by Utah )...so if the line seems funny thats why there is a method to there madness and for all those sheep who talk about fading the public this would probably be a spot I would use that theory. Opened at 3 bet down to 2.5 with seemingly heavy Den action and then ADJUSTED to -3.5 when it became clearer those guys probably wouldnt play...
I thought to myself what a great spot to play DEN and fade Sac till I looked at the big picture. And this...Denver, though, did win its last visit to Sacramento - 113-101 on March 11 - after losing 20 straight trips there dating to Jan. 7, 1997. So 1-20 SU last 21 trips to ARCO against a team playing well.....value in the line....clearly not but sometimes yo have to read bewteen the lines....My guess is we see a flat DEN squad over relying on Melo and AI to get it done while SAC seems very happy to be home for the holidays and playing well...
Good Luck here...I had to nibble on Sac here -2.5/-3....:cheers:
I think to much of is made of rest and all that jazz nowadays. It's has to be put into the equation but how a team is playing should be the fundamental factor.
Like I said my 1st instinct was nice they made Sac a fav cause as 14 pt dogs they played Den well. Much easier to play as a huge dog . Playing close and winning two seperate things. Anyway I fell for the Magic bait but I think this is one of the rare times where we should pay attention to the lines...probably weren't to bigger sucker plays then Orlando and Houston.....
Good Luck!!
Like I said my 1st instinct was nice they made Sac a fav cause as 14 pt dogs they played Den well. Much easier to play as a huge dog . Playing close and winning two seperate things. Anyway I fell for the Magic bait but I think this is one of the rare times where we should pay attention to the lines...probably weren't to bigger sucker plays then Orlando and Houston.....
Good Luck!!
No that would be me! For taking Minnesota in my 3 team parlay with Sac and East Carolina!!!
If my observation continues to be right we see a disinterested DEN squad in the 2nd H. The Under 101 looks good and +3 for Sac should hold up.....
:cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Farm, I dont quite believe it. Got a shitty ml because it'd already been hit hard at the book I placed my bet. not that I'm complaining now
Congrats. I guess Sac thought the game was over at halftime. There inability to score and push the lead keep Den hanging around in the 2nd H. Don't think they did anything special persay but I give Den credit for hitting a shot everytime Sac extended it back to 10 or 12 points. . I knew I was done when Udrih missed both FTs and then still you feel like you have a chance and Miller misses both and still Den misses and gets an offensive board... the writing was on the wall but that was still one of my all-time worst losses...really nothing I can salvage from that as it just completed a day with great reads filled with bad decisions , bad breaks and bad luck...
Denver was the right play . Just real frustrating when I look back at the day and wonder how I lost $$? Probably hit 75% of the card and managed to zero on the 25% I was wrong on..should have just pounded the 2nd H under but I have small juevos! Happy Holidays and GL...more pain watching Iowa State fall to pieces and cant do better then split the Over and the side there....
Denver was the right play . Just real frustrating when I look back at the day and wonder how I lost $$? Probably hit 75% of the card and managed to zero on the 25% I was wrong on..should have just pounded the 2nd H under but I have small juevos! Happy Holidays and GL...more pain watching Iowa State fall to pieces and cant do better then split the Over and the side there....
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Nut, I didnt realise you had Sac, but I think the word moose could freely be used by yourself in this instance. Seems to me they coasted on their 1st half effort off their long road trip. To the Nuggs credit, they took advantage.
Yeah , I hardly ever play on a team off a long trip but I had expected Camby and Martin to miss. Thought the 3 days off factored with 2 tough contests for Den( 3rd in 4th here) would make Sac the team who played at maxed effort and performed at peak level. Felt like a genius for a half maybe even 3 quarters . Thought Artest 3 to close the 3rd was all she wrote but sure enough 1st Den possession of the 4th they hit a 3 and believe they hit 2 in the first 60 seconds of the 4th. As easy as the 1st H was you have to think these guys realize AI and Melo are on the other side. The sick part is SAC was great in the 4th q past 2 games and layed the golden egg here....It's just sick when that was there only lead..
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>16.0</TD><TD align=left>104-105</TD><TD align=left>SAC</TD><TD align=left>Brad Miller missed 1st of 2 Free Throws</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>16.0</TD><TD align=left>104-105</TD><TD align=left>SAC</TD><TD align=left>Brad Miller missed 2nd of 2 Free Throws</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>16.0</TD><TD align=left> </TD><TD align=left>DEN</TD><TD align=left>Defensive Rebound by Carmelo Anthony</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>5.0</TD><TD align=left>104-105</TD><TD align=left>DEN</TD><TD align=left>Allen Iverson missed Floating Jump Shot</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>5.0</TD><TD align=left> </TD><TD align=left>DEN</TD><TD align=left>Offensive Rebound by Linas Kleiza</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>1.0</TD><TD align=left>106-105</TD><TD align=left>DEN</TD><TD align=left>Linas Kleiza made Turnaround Jump Shot
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Thats just sick
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Thats just sick
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