G
Gyno
Guest
:cheers3:
G
Gyno
Guest
Kamar Aiken WR and RAIDERS D will be on every team I have.
G
Gyno
Guest
Here's my first lineup
[h=3]Your Lineup[/h]<!-- ngIf: :
draft.mode === 'view') --> Edit Export
<!-- end ngIf: :draft.mode === 'view') --> <!-- ngIf: ::draft.mode !== 'view' --> <!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <section><!-- ngIf: draft.rosterLoading --> <!-- ngIf: !draft.rosterLoading -->
[h=3]Your Lineup[/h]<!-- ngIf: :
draft.mode === 'view') --> Edit Export <!-- end ngIf: :
draft.mode === 'view') --> <!-- ngIf: ::draft.mode !== 'view' --> <!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <section><!-- ngIf: draft.rosterLoading --> <!-- ngIf: !draft.rosterLoading -->- <!-- ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
-
QB Add player
Ben Roethlisberger
<!-- ngIf: :
layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> PIT@BAL <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$8,900
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
RB Add player
Doug Martin
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> CHI@TB <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$8,100
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
RB Add player
Bilal Powell
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> NE@NYJ <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$5,900
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
WR Add player
Antonio Brown
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> PIT@BAL <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$9,300
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
WR Add player
Kamar Aiken
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> PIT@BAL <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$6,600
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
WR Add player
Brandin Cooks
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' -->Breaking news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> JAC@NO <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 4:05PM
$7,000
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
TE Add player
Zach Ertz
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> WAS@PHI <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$5,000
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
K Add player
Dustin Hopkins
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> WAS@PHI <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$4,500
<!-- ngIf: :draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button><!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup --> -
D Add player
Oakland Raiders
<!-- ngIf: :layer.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: :layer.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> SD@OAK <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$4,300
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
anyone else playing the $1500 on dk this week?
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I am. I'm splitting the entry with a buddy of mine
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
me and some friends were gonna split it 7-8 ways but it never panned out. GL guys if you do.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
New England @ New York Jets
Line NE-3 45.5
QB
Football Jesus
It’s seems like Belichick realizes he can’t run the ball against the Jets. In 2014 they ran the ball 15 times, in their first meeting. Brady was 20/37 260/3. 18 of those targets went to Vereen/Gronk. They caught 10 balls for 139/2, Vereen got 2 of those touchdowns. Belichicks way to run the ball against the Jets has been quick passes to TE/RB, reason for that the Jets play exclusively man coverage, and blitz the most of any team in the league. In the second meeting of 2014 @ New York, those same types of players RB/TE/slot receivers had 23/35 targets.
In two 2013 meetings with Jets, Edelman had 18 targets in one game, and Gronk had 17. Once again the premise is that Belichick/Brady look to get the ball out quick, and beat M2M coverage.
In the 2015 meeting earlier this year Brady went 34/54/355/2 and ran 1 in. Gronk/Amendola/Edeleman combined for 34 targets, Gronk get 16 of them, and shredding the D for 8/116/1. This was their first game with out Dion Lewis. They ran the ball 9 times, basically making quick outs and WR screens as their running plays.
Viable plays
James White, he has 13/6/8 targets over the last 3 games. He seems to have stepped into the Dion Lewis role. I assume he gets at least 10 targets. He also plays the red zone snaps. Jets rank 16[SUP]th [/SUP]DVOA against running backs in the pass game, and 15[SUP]th[/SUP] against TE
Gronk, has murdered the Jets, but I can see the Jets trying to take him out of play, which opens up the White opportunities.
Brady, his floor is probably 225/2. His price tag is just too high, for a ceiling that is probably 250/4. Brady should be low owned, because everyone seems to be pivoting to Ben/Bortles.
Fitzmagic
Has at least 250/2 in every single home game this year, for the exception of 1 game. His price tag is cheap, and his ownership should be low, because he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Decker has at least a touchdown or 80 yards in every single game this year. Decker is getting the most RZ targets this year next to ARob. Pats have game planned all year to take away the opposing teams #1 option. Marshall went 4/67 in the earlier matchup, where Decker went 6/97.
Bilal Powell’s usage the last 3 weeks.
RUSH 6/17 yards
REC 8/91/1
RU-3/36
REC-5/46/1
RU=6/25/1
REC-7/54
His usage isn’t exactly where you want it, but his efficiency is through the roof. In a game that could be a shootout, Powell gets the usage. New England ranks 21[SUP]st[/SUP] DVOA against receiving RBs. New England gives up the 26[SUP]th[/SUP] least amount of Fantasy Points to WR. So the Fitzmagic distribution has to go somewhere.
Ideal Plays
Decker, because Marshall likely gets shutdown.
Powell, because if they’re forced to pass, he gets the work.
Houston/Tennessee
No Line.
Tennessee ranks 21[SUP]st[/SUP] DVOA against the pass. They rank near bottom in ever statistical category vs WRS. They rank in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to last against the deep ball thrown to WRs. The Problem for Nuke Hopkins, is Brandon Weeden is his QB. When Weeden was in Dallas, he rarely targeted Dez, most of his production went to Terrence Williams, Jason Witten. Which brings Narrative street for Nate Washington. Washington plays again against his former team, in week 6 4/74/1. He’s a cheap option that may be viable.
Dorial Green Beckham
Over the last 3 games, he’s had 6/7/9 targets, eclipsing 100 yards receiving in 2/3. He’s averaging 17.1 yards per attempt over the year, on very little usage. Issue is Zack Mettenberg is his QB. Mettenberg is a wild card, and Kendall Wright should be back.
Delanie Walker
Houston ranks 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in Fantasy Points allowed to TE’s this year. Walker had nice scoring game last week, but with so many options at TE this week, I think Walker gets bypassed. He would be a huge risk/reward play. He will be extremely low owned, but he could also put up a huge stinker.
Viable Play
I think Nate Washington is the only viable play and at his price tag could pay off value, the problem is I don’t trust Branden Weeden.
With two back up QBS playing, I think both defenses are in play, based on how roster construction plays out.
Cleveland/Kansas City
Line Chiefs -11/42.5
Cleveland has given up at least 150 yards on the ground to opposing teams this year, for the exception against the SD chargers. Cleveland ranks 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against the rush this year. They give up the 9[SUP]th[/SUP] most fantasy points to RBs on the year. Andy Reid loves to use Alex Smith as the game manager. The line indicates game flow will cater towards the Chiefs running the ball. Spencer Ware was active in an emergency role only last week. He’s practiced in full all week….what I believe will happen is West gets the majority of the work here. Why risk your other capable back in a game that shouldn’t be close. If at all, I think West gets at least a 70/30 split. West also see’s some action in the passing game, where Cleveland ranks near last against RB’s in a receiving role.
Maclin is also in play, but I believe game flow kills him. His usage over the last 4 games has seen him get 9/10/10/11 targets, with 9/9/6/7 receptions for a 363 yards and 4 TDS, over that span.
Kansas City defense has been dominant recently, but one thing I’ve targeted against them is the #1WR from the opposing teams. KC defense ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR.
Look at some splits from #1WR against KC
Aiken 8/128/1
Cooper 4/69
Watkins 6/158/2
D. Thomas 7/71
C Johnson 5/85
A Brown 6/124
S Digs 7/124
M Wilson 6/85/1
AJ Green 7/82
James Jones 7/131/1
Basically what I take away from that, is KC can get beat on the deep ball. With game flow dictating that the Browns will likely have to throw ball, Travis Benjamin could benefit from some YOLO balls from Manziel. As we saw last week, KC is vulnerable to YOLO balls.
KC defense will likely be highly owned, because of recency bias.
Indy/Miami
Line 3/44
Miami’s pass defense is New Orleans BAD. Ranks dead last in DVOA against #1WR and 28[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR. The problem is the corpse of Matt Hassellback is starting for Indy. Everything on him is broken. TY Hilton came out this week and ridiculed Pagano for his play calling. I would like him this because he’s the deep threat, but the issue is can you trust Grandpa Hassellback?
Who I do like is Frank Gore, he’s my YOLO play of the week. He’s getting all of the running back snaps. The problem he’s not getting a lot of looks. He averages 14 touches per game, very similar to Melvin Gordon last week. I’ve watched for the last two weeks two pedestrian running teams (Giants/Chargers) rack up yardage on the Miami defense. In a game where Matt Hassellback is one hit away from being knocked out again….maybe try running the ball? Indy, like Miami is stupid and they won’t do it. Gore is returning home to Miami, where he played college…(he’s never played in Miami, since he left college) His price is cheap….but his ceiling doesn’t provide a lot of upside.
Lamar Miller is the most efficient RB in the league, but Miami is stupid and wont feed him. Indy gives up the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] most points to WRs. They’ve given up huge chunks of yards to opposing WRs this year. Vontae Davis use to be good, but he’s beatable now. I think with Rishard Matthews back, he’s in play, and Jarvis Landry could in play for a huge game.
San Fran/Detroit
-10/43
San Fran is giving up 128ypg on the ground, and 18 TD this year on the ground. The problem is who do you target in the Detroit running game? Abdullah (between the 20’’s back) Joique Bell (goaline back) Theo Riddick (passing down back). This running attack could be similar to what Cleveland did to SF a few weeks ago @ Cleveland. Crowell went for 20/145/1. San Fran has struggled against bigger backs. I would lean to Bell here because he gets the RZ carries. Abdullah would have to hit a couple home runs, (similar to last week) and Riddick would have to have some serious YAC.
Golden Tate has incredible ever since Megatron died.
His last 5 games
8/73
7/50/1
8/63
9/60/2
6/45/2
His yardage isn’t there, but he’s still scoring points. San Fran ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against passes over the middle, where Tate runs a majority of his routes.
Dallas/Buffalo
-6/42.5
The Bills backfield is a mystery right now. Karlos Williams is supposed to play, but he was out snapped by Gillislee last week when Shady went out. Dallas is terrible against the run, ranking 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in fantasy points allowed to RB, and 27[SUP]th[/SUP] DVOA against the run. Once news on Williams is released, I think he’s a good play if he’s going to get the most run.
Dallas has only given up two perimeter TD passes this year (Mike Evans/Jordan Matthews), best in the NFL. Of those two only Evans is a true perimeter WR. Sammy Watkins almost always runs his routes exclusively on the outside. Watkins has been GOLD lately, and argueably the hottest WR outside of Doug Baldwin/Antonio Brown. The play instead of Watkins could be Chris Hogan, who is a complete flier. The WR’s that have had the most success against Dallas have been slot receivers.
Dez Bryant is an interesting play at WR. He had 9 targets once Kellen Moore came into the game last week. That was the most usage he’s seen, since Tony Romo has been gone. Buffalo’s defense ranks 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in total defensive DVOA, they rank 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in Fantasy points allowed to WR. DMAC, is also in play as Buffalo ranks 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in rush defense. Both are cheap and will be overlooked, and low owned. I don’t want to say the Cowboys are due for some offensive output, but they just might be.
Line NE-3 45.5
QB
Football Jesus
It’s seems like Belichick realizes he can’t run the ball against the Jets. In 2014 they ran the ball 15 times, in their first meeting. Brady was 20/37 260/3. 18 of those targets went to Vereen/Gronk. They caught 10 balls for 139/2, Vereen got 2 of those touchdowns. Belichicks way to run the ball against the Jets has been quick passes to TE/RB, reason for that the Jets play exclusively man coverage, and blitz the most of any team in the league. In the second meeting of 2014 @ New York, those same types of players RB/TE/slot receivers had 23/35 targets.
In two 2013 meetings with Jets, Edelman had 18 targets in one game, and Gronk had 17. Once again the premise is that Belichick/Brady look to get the ball out quick, and beat M2M coverage.
In the 2015 meeting earlier this year Brady went 34/54/355/2 and ran 1 in. Gronk/Amendola/Edeleman combined for 34 targets, Gronk get 16 of them, and shredding the D for 8/116/1. This was their first game with out Dion Lewis. They ran the ball 9 times, basically making quick outs and WR screens as their running plays.
Viable plays
James White, he has 13/6/8 targets over the last 3 games. He seems to have stepped into the Dion Lewis role. I assume he gets at least 10 targets. He also plays the red zone snaps. Jets rank 16[SUP]th [/SUP]DVOA against running backs in the pass game, and 15[SUP]th[/SUP] against TE
Gronk, has murdered the Jets, but I can see the Jets trying to take him out of play, which opens up the White opportunities.
Brady, his floor is probably 225/2. His price tag is just too high, for a ceiling that is probably 250/4. Brady should be low owned, because everyone seems to be pivoting to Ben/Bortles.
Fitzmagic
Has at least 250/2 in every single home game this year, for the exception of 1 game. His price tag is cheap, and his ownership should be low, because he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Decker has at least a touchdown or 80 yards in every single game this year. Decker is getting the most RZ targets this year next to ARob. Pats have game planned all year to take away the opposing teams #1 option. Marshall went 4/67 in the earlier matchup, where Decker went 6/97.
Bilal Powell’s usage the last 3 weeks.
RUSH 6/17 yards
REC 8/91/1
RU-3/36
REC-5/46/1
RU=6/25/1
REC-7/54
His usage isn’t exactly where you want it, but his efficiency is through the roof. In a game that could be a shootout, Powell gets the usage. New England ranks 21[SUP]st[/SUP] DVOA against receiving RBs. New England gives up the 26[SUP]th[/SUP] least amount of Fantasy Points to WR. So the Fitzmagic distribution has to go somewhere.
Ideal Plays
Decker, because Marshall likely gets shutdown.
Powell, because if they’re forced to pass, he gets the work.
Houston/Tennessee
No Line.
Tennessee ranks 21[SUP]st[/SUP] DVOA against the pass. They rank near bottom in ever statistical category vs WRS. They rank in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to last against the deep ball thrown to WRs. The Problem for Nuke Hopkins, is Brandon Weeden is his QB. When Weeden was in Dallas, he rarely targeted Dez, most of his production went to Terrence Williams, Jason Witten. Which brings Narrative street for Nate Washington. Washington plays again against his former team, in week 6 4/74/1. He’s a cheap option that may be viable.
Dorial Green Beckham
Over the last 3 games, he’s had 6/7/9 targets, eclipsing 100 yards receiving in 2/3. He’s averaging 17.1 yards per attempt over the year, on very little usage. Issue is Zack Mettenberg is his QB. Mettenberg is a wild card, and Kendall Wright should be back.
Delanie Walker
Houston ranks 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in Fantasy Points allowed to TE’s this year. Walker had nice scoring game last week, but with so many options at TE this week, I think Walker gets bypassed. He would be a huge risk/reward play. He will be extremely low owned, but he could also put up a huge stinker.
Viable Play
I think Nate Washington is the only viable play and at his price tag could pay off value, the problem is I don’t trust Branden Weeden.
With two back up QBS playing, I think both defenses are in play, based on how roster construction plays out.
Cleveland/Kansas City
Line Chiefs -11/42.5
Cleveland has given up at least 150 yards on the ground to opposing teams this year, for the exception against the SD chargers. Cleveland ranks 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against the rush this year. They give up the 9[SUP]th[/SUP] most fantasy points to RBs on the year. Andy Reid loves to use Alex Smith as the game manager. The line indicates game flow will cater towards the Chiefs running the ball. Spencer Ware was active in an emergency role only last week. He’s practiced in full all week….what I believe will happen is West gets the majority of the work here. Why risk your other capable back in a game that shouldn’t be close. If at all, I think West gets at least a 70/30 split. West also see’s some action in the passing game, where Cleveland ranks near last against RB’s in a receiving role.
Maclin is also in play, but I believe game flow kills him. His usage over the last 4 games has seen him get 9/10/10/11 targets, with 9/9/6/7 receptions for a 363 yards and 4 TDS, over that span.
Kansas City defense has been dominant recently, but one thing I’ve targeted against them is the #1WR from the opposing teams. KC defense ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR.
Look at some splits from #1WR against KC
Aiken 8/128/1
Cooper 4/69
Watkins 6/158/2
D. Thomas 7/71
C Johnson 5/85
A Brown 6/124
S Digs 7/124
M Wilson 6/85/1
AJ Green 7/82
James Jones 7/131/1
Basically what I take away from that, is KC can get beat on the deep ball. With game flow dictating that the Browns will likely have to throw ball, Travis Benjamin could benefit from some YOLO balls from Manziel. As we saw last week, KC is vulnerable to YOLO balls.
KC defense will likely be highly owned, because of recency bias.
Indy/Miami
Line 3/44
Miami’s pass defense is New Orleans BAD. Ranks dead last in DVOA against #1WR and 28[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR. The problem is the corpse of Matt Hassellback is starting for Indy. Everything on him is broken. TY Hilton came out this week and ridiculed Pagano for his play calling. I would like him this because he’s the deep threat, but the issue is can you trust Grandpa Hassellback?
Who I do like is Frank Gore, he’s my YOLO play of the week. He’s getting all of the running back snaps. The problem he’s not getting a lot of looks. He averages 14 touches per game, very similar to Melvin Gordon last week. I’ve watched for the last two weeks two pedestrian running teams (Giants/Chargers) rack up yardage on the Miami defense. In a game where Matt Hassellback is one hit away from being knocked out again….maybe try running the ball? Indy, like Miami is stupid and they won’t do it. Gore is returning home to Miami, where he played college…(he’s never played in Miami, since he left college) His price is cheap….but his ceiling doesn’t provide a lot of upside.
Lamar Miller is the most efficient RB in the league, but Miami is stupid and wont feed him. Indy gives up the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] most points to WRs. They’ve given up huge chunks of yards to opposing WRs this year. Vontae Davis use to be good, but he’s beatable now. I think with Rishard Matthews back, he’s in play, and Jarvis Landry could in play for a huge game.
San Fran/Detroit
-10/43
San Fran is giving up 128ypg on the ground, and 18 TD this year on the ground. The problem is who do you target in the Detroit running game? Abdullah (between the 20’’s back) Joique Bell (goaline back) Theo Riddick (passing down back). This running attack could be similar to what Cleveland did to SF a few weeks ago @ Cleveland. Crowell went for 20/145/1. San Fran has struggled against bigger backs. I would lean to Bell here because he gets the RZ carries. Abdullah would have to hit a couple home runs, (similar to last week) and Riddick would have to have some serious YAC.
Golden Tate has incredible ever since Megatron died.
His last 5 games
8/73
7/50/1
8/63
9/60/2
6/45/2
His yardage isn’t there, but he’s still scoring points. San Fran ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against passes over the middle, where Tate runs a majority of his routes.
Dallas/Buffalo
-6/42.5
The Bills backfield is a mystery right now. Karlos Williams is supposed to play, but he was out snapped by Gillislee last week when Shady went out. Dallas is terrible against the run, ranking 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in fantasy points allowed to RB, and 27[SUP]th[/SUP] DVOA against the run. Once news on Williams is released, I think he’s a good play if he’s going to get the most run.
Dallas has only given up two perimeter TD passes this year (Mike Evans/Jordan Matthews), best in the NFL. Of those two only Evans is a true perimeter WR. Sammy Watkins almost always runs his routes exclusively on the outside. Watkins has been GOLD lately, and argueably the hottest WR outside of Doug Baldwin/Antonio Brown. The play instead of Watkins could be Chris Hogan, who is a complete flier. The WR’s that have had the most success against Dallas have been slot receivers.
Dez Bryant is an interesting play at WR. He had 9 targets once Kellen Moore came into the game last week. That was the most usage he’s seen, since Tony Romo has been gone. Buffalo’s defense ranks 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in total defensive DVOA, they rank 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in Fantasy points allowed to WR. DMAC, is also in play as Buffalo ranks 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in rush defense. Both are cheap and will be overlooked, and low owned. I don’t want to say the Cowboys are due for some offensive output, but they just might be.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Chicago/Tampa Bay
3/45
In the four games that Vincent Jackson has missed this year, Mike Evans has gone 14 targets per game, vs 8 targets a game when Vjax plays. Evans will get a matchup against Tracy Porter who is barely 5’10, vs Evans who is 6’5. Chicago ranks 30[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR DVOA this year.
Doug Martin probably my favorite running back that isn’t named Adrian Peterson this week. The line indicates this game will be close. Which is good for Doug Martins usage. When Tampa Bay gets down, Charles Sims get the action. In games that TB has won, or has lost by less than 5 points Doug Martin has at least 18 carries, and 75 yards. He trails Adrian Peterson for the NFL lead in rushing yardage by less than 20 yards. The talk in tampa, is that now that they’re out of the playoff picture that they want to get Doug Martin the rushing title. Chicagos rush defense ranks 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in DVOA.
Tampa Bay has an excellent Rush defense, so Matt Langford doesn’t get any love. Jeffrey is hobbled and left last weeks game with yet another sore vagina. I’d expect them to sit him. Zach Miller is my one play from Chicago’s side of the ball. You beat up on TB by throwing over the middle. Tampa ranks last against #2 WR, and 20[SUP]th[/SUP] against TE this year. Miller continues to see RZ targets ever since Bennett was done for the year.
3/45
In the four games that Vincent Jackson has missed this year, Mike Evans has gone 14 targets per game, vs 8 targets a game when Vjax plays. Evans will get a matchup against Tracy Porter who is barely 5’10, vs Evans who is 6’5. Chicago ranks 30[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR DVOA this year.
Doug Martin probably my favorite running back that isn’t named Adrian Peterson this week. The line indicates this game will be close. Which is good for Doug Martins usage. When Tampa Bay gets down, Charles Sims get the action. In games that TB has won, or has lost by less than 5 points Doug Martin has at least 18 carries, and 75 yards. He trails Adrian Peterson for the NFL lead in rushing yardage by less than 20 yards. The talk in tampa, is that now that they’re out of the playoff picture that they want to get Doug Martin the rushing title. Chicagos rush defense ranks 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in DVOA.
Tampa Bay has an excellent Rush defense, so Matt Langford doesn’t get any love. Jeffrey is hobbled and left last weeks game with yet another sore vagina. I’d expect them to sit him. Zach Miller is my one play from Chicago’s side of the ball. You beat up on TB by throwing over the middle. Tampa ranks last against #2 WR, and 20[SUP]th[/SUP] against TE this year. Miller continues to see RZ targets ever since Bennett was done for the year.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
As a bills fan I think Dez is an excellent play. Nobody left in the secondary can cover him. 7k on fd for a top wr that nobody wants looks appealing.
Marlo I disagree that Hogan is a good play. He may get you 80 yds, possibly a td but he won't get enough looks to really kill it. Once again as far as this offense is concerned, Watkins and to a lesser extent Karlos at a cheap price are my only considerations.
Marlo I disagree that Hogan is a good play. He may get you 80 yds, possibly a td but he won't get enough looks to really kill it. Once again as far as this offense is concerned, Watkins and to a lesser extent Karlos at a cheap price are my only considerations.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I posted the numbers of #1 wrs vs the Skins last week as a reason to play Watkins.... I don't think anything has changed here.
Jordan Matthews is definitely more of a risk than Sammy was, but considerably cheaper so he will make some of my lineups
Jordan Matthews is definitely more of a risk than Sammy was, but considerably cheaper so he will make some of my lineups
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Carolina/Atlanta
6.5/47
Carolina has scored 25+ in every single game this year. The points have to come from somewhere.
I don’ think any of the running backs for Carolina are viable, even though Atlanta gives up the most fantasy points to RBS in the league. The usage isn’t there. Naked Cam is the only way to go. Olsen is priced in the Gronk range.
Julio like ODB last weekend goes against Josh Norman. His floor just isn’t worth his price. Matt Ryan is horrendous, in an optimal position last week his stat line was abysmal.
This game befuddles me, and I hope that it stays close, and no one really goes off.
Steelers/Ravens
-10/47.5
In 10 games Ben has finished this year, he’s averaged 350 yards per game. Baltimore ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] DVOA against the Pass.
Lets look at Bens road games this year, before everyone clicks submit on Antonio Brown.
@NE 26/38/350/1
@STL 20/24/192
@Seatlle 36/56/455/1
@Cincy 30/39/282
Comes out to
112/156/1200/2
Vs @ home….159/243/2008/16
Bens 2014 Home/Road splits
214/314/2700/23/4
194/294/2200/9/5
Last year @ Baltimore, Ben went 22/37/217
2013 @ Baltimore, Ben went 28/44/257/2
2011 @ Baltimore, Ben went 22/41/280/1/3
Those numbers don’t paint a very solid picture for likely the highest QB this week. With all that said….these two teams couldn’t be going in more opposite directions.
Baltimore ranks 14[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR, and 26[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR. I favor Bryant, because of upside over Brown. Bryant is underpriced, vs Brown who is priced correctly…but to get 5x value…he’s going to need to do exactly what he did last week. Bryant use to be used as just a deep threat, now he’s being used in screens over the middle, and in the red zone.
Bryant’s last 5 games targets…..10/13/8/9/14. Unlike Brown, Bryant can take absolutely every single ball he touches to the house.
Now game flow also says, that as a 10pt favorite,……are they going to need to pass, even though, they likely still do……
Its very rare that a guy like Brown, even with the matchup hits value or exceeds value. Even if he puts up a 10/120/1, you’re not hitting value. With all of the mouths to feed in a game that Vegas thinks won’t be close…..I think fading Brown and playing Bryant is a smart play .
KaMVP, has been a beast ever since Steve Smith died. Pittsburgh gives up the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most fantasy points to WR, and the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] least points to RBs. Pitt also ranks 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against #1WR…. In a game that Baltimore will likely be down, and Ryan Mallet will likely be QB, they will need to throw. Aikens targets since he became the #1WR this year, 14/8/10/11/7/14. His yardage is pretty abysmal, with only averaging just over 60 yards per game, but he has 3 TDs over that time span. The usage is there, you just need the yardage, against a team that just gave up piles to a similar WR (Emmanuel sanders) I really like Aiken this week.
6.5/47
Carolina has scored 25+ in every single game this year. The points have to come from somewhere.
I don’ think any of the running backs for Carolina are viable, even though Atlanta gives up the most fantasy points to RBS in the league. The usage isn’t there. Naked Cam is the only way to go. Olsen is priced in the Gronk range.
Julio like ODB last weekend goes against Josh Norman. His floor just isn’t worth his price. Matt Ryan is horrendous, in an optimal position last week his stat line was abysmal.
This game befuddles me, and I hope that it stays close, and no one really goes off.
Steelers/Ravens
-10/47.5
In 10 games Ben has finished this year, he’s averaged 350 yards per game. Baltimore ranks 29[SUP]th[/SUP] DVOA against the Pass.
Lets look at Bens road games this year, before everyone clicks submit on Antonio Brown.
@NE 26/38/350/1
@STL 20/24/192
@Seatlle 36/56/455/1
@Cincy 30/39/282
Comes out to
112/156/1200/2
Vs @ home….159/243/2008/16
Bens 2014 Home/Road splits
214/314/2700/23/4
194/294/2200/9/5
Last year @ Baltimore, Ben went 22/37/217
2013 @ Baltimore, Ben went 28/44/257/2
2011 @ Baltimore, Ben went 22/41/280/1/3
Those numbers don’t paint a very solid picture for likely the highest QB this week. With all that said….these two teams couldn’t be going in more opposite directions.
Baltimore ranks 14[SUP]th[/SUP] against #1WR, and 26[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR. I favor Bryant, because of upside over Brown. Bryant is underpriced, vs Brown who is priced correctly…but to get 5x value…he’s going to need to do exactly what he did last week. Bryant use to be used as just a deep threat, now he’s being used in screens over the middle, and in the red zone.
Bryant’s last 5 games targets…..10/13/8/9/14. Unlike Brown, Bryant can take absolutely every single ball he touches to the house.
Now game flow also says, that as a 10pt favorite,……are they going to need to pass, even though, they likely still do……
Its very rare that a guy like Brown, even with the matchup hits value or exceeds value. Even if he puts up a 10/120/1, you’re not hitting value. With all of the mouths to feed in a game that Vegas thinks won’t be close…..I think fading Brown and playing Bryant is a smart play .
KaMVP, has been a beast ever since Steve Smith died. Pittsburgh gives up the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most fantasy points to WR, and the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] least points to RBs. Pitt also ranks 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in DVOA against #1WR…. In a game that Baltimore will likely be down, and Ryan Mallet will likely be QB, they will need to throw. Aikens targets since he became the #1WR this year, 14/8/10/11/7/14. His yardage is pretty abysmal, with only averaging just over 60 yards per game, but he has 3 TDs over that time span. The usage is there, you just need the yardage, against a team that just gave up piles to a similar WR (Emmanuel sanders) I really like Aiken this week.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Really hard to fade Sammy right now, I agree. No Woods, No Clay, NO Shady....someone has to get the targets. Hogan is a cheap flier, but I by no means think he goes over 100 yards. I think the 4-5-6/80 is his ceiling, at his price thats value.
Agree on Dez, the sharp players will be all over him at his price, and its hard to ignore. 5 x value is only 25 pts for Dez, and thats 100% attainable.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
J Matt is my fucking kryptonite....but Wash giving up almost 30 on the road this year....I think this game is a shootout from the start. Would not be surprised to see this game play well into the 60s.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
And 1 more reason to Fade Antonio Brown....his ownership in last nights FD contest.
- Antonio Brown 43.3%
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
St Louis/Seattle
Seattle -12.5/40
Seattle has let to allow more than 70 yards rushing in a game. Gurley like AP, needs game flow to go his way. In games that St Louis has been blown out in, Gurley has 9/9/12 carries. The Vegas line implies this will be a blowout. Gurley is a great GPP play, if you have balls because his upside is there and his ownership will be less than 1%.
For Seattle, I think they get the running game going before the passing game this week. They sent out a platoon of Running backs last week, with Christian Michael getting the majority of the carries (16). St. Louis isn’t that bad against the Pass, but is sneaky bad against the run. I think Seattle gets Michael 20-25 carries this week, in a game that should tend to be low scoring. I think the run ends for Wilson and Baldwin (who is nursing a hurt hamstring as well)
St. Louis ranks #3 DVOA against #1 & #2 WR, and rank #3 against the deep ball in the NFL.
Green Bay/Arizona
Arizona -4/49.5
Sam Shields is likely out again this week, did you see what Amari Cooper did against GB’s backup last week, Michael Floyd. Honey Badger tore his ACL last week, which brings Randall Cobb into the mix.
David Johnson is the best RB in the league right now. He will be 50% owned, and he should be. You can’t fade him. His usage is through the fucking roof. He’s scoring a TD in almost 10% of his touches on the year. You saw what happened last week with 33 touches, and he scored 3TDs.
My issue is, Carson Palmer will not just throw 1 TD this week. The scoring will come from other players besides just David Johnson.
In a game that has one of the highest O/U on the slate, I think it will be a shootout. I think Cobb is a good play, and I think Floyd is really in play. He led Zona last week, and was tackled at the goalline, otherwise his stat line would look sexier.
NYG/Minn
-6/45.5
Eli averages almost 40 passing attempts a game. ODB is gone, so that’s 10-12 targets that will go elsewhere. I think they go to Reuben Randle and Will Tye. Minnesota ranks 24[SUP]th[/SUP] and 26[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR, and TE. The usage has to go to someone. Rashard Jennings has been getting more love in what was a split backfield until the last two weeks. Minnesota can be beat on the ground, giving up 115 ypg, and ranking 20[SUP]th[/SUP] in rush defense dvoa.
Adrian Peterson is in play, he’s probably my favorite play…but I don’t know how confident in him you can be. Let start off why I like him, Giants Opponents have had at least 100 yards or a TD in the last 5 games. Their defense was good against the run to start the year, but had faded down the stretch.
Why I don’t like Adrian, coming off sprained ankle, but Adrian heals quicker than a Charlie Sheen lesion. The Vikings could have a playoff spot locked up, if the following things happen. Atlanta Loses (completely viable) Seattle wins (almost a lock) Green Bay loses to Arizona (seems likely) All 3 of those scenerios are in play before the Vikings take the field on Sunday night. Zimmer was quoted this week saying if they’re guaranteed a playoff spot he may rest some guys. (vikes are littered with injuries)
If you play Adrian, play him in the Flex spot. You can swap him with McKinnon, (90 total yards and touchdown in a quarter in a half in Adrians absence last week) Or Manny Sanders on Monday night.
Seattle -12.5/40
Seattle has let to allow more than 70 yards rushing in a game. Gurley like AP, needs game flow to go his way. In games that St Louis has been blown out in, Gurley has 9/9/12 carries. The Vegas line implies this will be a blowout. Gurley is a great GPP play, if you have balls because his upside is there and his ownership will be less than 1%.
For Seattle, I think they get the running game going before the passing game this week. They sent out a platoon of Running backs last week, with Christian Michael getting the majority of the carries (16). St. Louis isn’t that bad against the Pass, but is sneaky bad against the run. I think Seattle gets Michael 20-25 carries this week, in a game that should tend to be low scoring. I think the run ends for Wilson and Baldwin (who is nursing a hurt hamstring as well)
St. Louis ranks #3 DVOA against #1 & #2 WR, and rank #3 against the deep ball in the NFL.
Green Bay/Arizona
Arizona -4/49.5
Sam Shields is likely out again this week, did you see what Amari Cooper did against GB’s backup last week, Michael Floyd. Honey Badger tore his ACL last week, which brings Randall Cobb into the mix.
David Johnson is the best RB in the league right now. He will be 50% owned, and he should be. You can’t fade him. His usage is through the fucking roof. He’s scoring a TD in almost 10% of his touches on the year. You saw what happened last week with 33 touches, and he scored 3TDs.
My issue is, Carson Palmer will not just throw 1 TD this week. The scoring will come from other players besides just David Johnson.
In a game that has one of the highest O/U on the slate, I think it will be a shootout. I think Cobb is a good play, and I think Floyd is really in play. He led Zona last week, and was tackled at the goalline, otherwise his stat line would look sexier.
NYG/Minn
-6/45.5
Eli averages almost 40 passing attempts a game. ODB is gone, so that’s 10-12 targets that will go elsewhere. I think they go to Reuben Randle and Will Tye. Minnesota ranks 24[SUP]th[/SUP] and 26[SUP]th[/SUP] against #2WR, and TE. The usage has to go to someone. Rashard Jennings has been getting more love in what was a split backfield until the last two weeks. Minnesota can be beat on the ground, giving up 115 ypg, and ranking 20[SUP]th[/SUP] in rush defense dvoa.
Adrian Peterson is in play, he’s probably my favorite play…but I don’t know how confident in him you can be. Let start off why I like him, Giants Opponents have had at least 100 yards or a TD in the last 5 games. Their defense was good against the run to start the year, but had faded down the stretch.
Why I don’t like Adrian, coming off sprained ankle, but Adrian heals quicker than a Charlie Sheen lesion. The Vikings could have a playoff spot locked up, if the following things happen. Atlanta Loses (completely viable) Seattle wins (almost a lock) Green Bay loses to Arizona (seems likely) All 3 of those scenerios are in play before the Vikings take the field on Sunday night. Zimmer was quoted this week saying if they’re guaranteed a playoff spot he may rest some guys. (vikes are littered with injuries)
If you play Adrian, play him in the Flex spot. You can swap him with McKinnon, (90 total yards and touchdown in a quarter in a half in Adrians absence last week) Or Manny Sanders on Monday night.
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
Fading a guy that is more less 100% going to get you 20+ unless he gets hurt isn't the way to go. Agree with everything you said about him though and I certainly won't be building any lineups around him but if I can work him in without punting anywhere else I absolutely will.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I just don't believe he will pay off his salary, if he scores 20pts, at 9300, and you don't roster him you're gaining ground on the field.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Dmac, is a interesting play, Buffalo's running defense sucks this year. Against comparable defenses this year, here is what Dmac has done....and Dez is likely a no go.
Against the Giants (19th in Rush DVOA)
29/152/1
Against the Eagles (26th in rush DVOA)
27/117
Against the Dolphins (22nd in rush DVOA)
29/129
Against the Skins (23rd in rush DVOA
14/59/1
Against Green Bay (18th in rush DVOA)
9/111
Buffalo ranks 30th in rush DVOA.
They've given up at least 85 yards rushing or a TD in every game this year to some pretty pedestrian running games. Dmac doesn’t share carries.
Against the Giants (19th in Rush DVOA)
29/152/1
Against the Eagles (26th in rush DVOA)
27/117
Against the Dolphins (22nd in rush DVOA)
29/129
Against the Skins (23rd in rush DVOA
14/59/1
Against Green Bay (18th in rush DVOA)
9/111
Buffalo ranks 30th in rush DVOA.
They've given up at least 85 yards rushing or a TD in every game this year to some pretty pedestrian running games. Dmac doesn’t share carries.
Gordon gekko
Pretty much a regular
I believe that Cam Artis-Payne should be in some lineups along with Jay Ajayi...I'm not sure what's going on with Lamar Miller, but if they are going to not feature him for contract purposes, believe Ajayi can have some value..
I believe tonight will be high scoring and need to gain traction on the other players which I'm behind (5th place), I know 3 of them will have Ben starting, who's my QB? Is it Bortles?
I believe tonight will be high scoring and need to gain traction on the other players which I'm behind (5th place), I know 3 of them will have Ben starting, who's my QB? Is it Bortles?
Gordon gekko
Pretty much a regular
What games?
UTSUX
Old-timer
Gordon gekko
Pretty much a regular
Ok, ty
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Updated thoughts about Bills game
*Right now it's raining but it's supposed to taper off. Mostly cloudy but still 40 degrees.
*No Dez but the Bills secondary is still a clown show. Terrence Williams is a low end option (4800 on fd) that is risky as fuck but could pay off.
*Karlos is electric, and I suspect he will be featured. Gillislee will get touches, but Karlos is the guy to own- outside of watkins he's the only other Bill I have in a couple lineups.
*Right now it's raining but it's supposed to taper off. Mostly cloudy but still 40 degrees.
*No Dez but the Bills secondary is still a clown show. Terrence Williams is a low end option (4800 on fd) that is risky as fuck but could pay off.
*Karlos is electric, and I suspect he will be featured. Gillislee will get touches, but Karlos is the guy to own- outside of watkins he's the only other Bill I have in a couple lineups.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Lex, what do you think the target distribution is for Karlo's, Gillislee? Karlos, plays on passing downs right?
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Marlo i would think karlos gets the lion's share of carries and had played in passing situations though there's no definitive proof he will today
UTSUX
Old-timer
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
Deandre hopkins yards and rec and micheal floyd and john brown all categories, think the cards receivers deliver a near lock to go 4-2 with a very good chance of going 6-0
G
Gyno
Guest
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
I assumed they offered td props but maybe not. I don't bet the props just go heavy with those guys in my lineups.
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
faded ben, allin palmer and rodgers so looking good so far. Got lots of hopkins and some gore. Need gronk and white to pick it up and ill be sitting real nice going into the afternoon. Put in 8 entries in the $1500 contest.
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
ugly day, none of my 8 are going to cash, that stings
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I always have that one clunker in the lineup. Ap is killing me right now
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I assume you didn't have any Bortles or Brees?
The 1500 was my worst fucking lineup I think I ever put in.
Pivoted from Deangelo to White :hang:
Put Bryant in it, knowing what I knew about Big Ben. :hang:
Cam had his worst day all ear :hang:
Bortles throws for 10,000 yards, and he doesnt throw to Julius :hang:
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
early in the week i had AP every where. Then, as yesterday happened, I moved off AP because of all the question marks regarding how much he would play.
G
Gyno
Guest
Those who went against ben and brown look like geniuses. Was listening to this radio show and they were saying it is one of the weirdest fantasy results in the history of fantasy seeing the Steelers do so poorly.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
It was weird or genius, it was just following what the numbers said.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
most radio shows are idiots when it comes to fantasy/gambling. i love when they talk about a game being an "upset" when the team with the better record lost, when the team that won was favored.
G
Gyno
Guest
Even Colin Cowherd does that shit. I've seen him say he has an upset and the team is -2
