Not sure I agree buying down that total and paying that price, but good luck
Well, price isn't enough for the outcome to be compromised. The number to beat is most important in my pinion. I never won a bet at because the price was wrong. Ive only won because the line I had gave me my best chance to win.
I know your not challenging the logic to win as the only reason to make a bet, but to challenge the price of the bet, is worth nothing but the cost of doing business.
If I bet over 40 at -200 and win or push, or bet over 41 @180 and push, or bet o42 at 160, or bet over 43 at 140 or over 44 at 130. the bets all lose. All the prices were worthless except the price at 40.
In my opinion thats the best number for me on this game.
If the line on the Pats scoring 31 and the team performs enough to score 31, then I need only 10 points from Houston. If the Pats score less than 31, then I need more than 10 points from Houston. If I bet the game at the 44.5 and the Pats still score only 31, I need more than 2 TDs from Houston to win.
My calculations though show me that the lines is off by more than 4 points, so Im buying it to where I think I can win the bet at.
The Houston defense is better than many would think for this one game. The Pats defense isn't as good as Many would think for this one game.
Im only crunncing numbers and potential for today.
I need Brady to put up 24 which he may find hard to do since he didn't play the last game when NE won 27-0. But Houston could do much better than a shutout and roll up at least 17. Both of those projections is what gets me to believe my number to win is 40.
In addition, if Houston gets to 21 or 24 they could win SU and the Pats could lose scoring 21 or less. Again, in that model, I win again.
Those are my thoughts to win, not the price. You cant handicap price. Only points.
Thanks for the feed. Good luck to you as well.
