Falcons vs. Ravens NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Expect Falcon Upset in Low-Scoring Thriller
Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Best Bet: Falcons +7 at -110 with BetOnline
The Odds
Does Baltimore deserve to be favored so heavily for this game?
Recent results say "no."
The Ravens have failed to win any of their last four games by more than two points -- they also lost two of those games.
Those four games were not exactly against juggernaut opponents, either. They lost to Jacksonville and Cleveland, and they edged out Denver and Pittsburgh.
One might say, however, that, yeah, Atlanta is not a juggernaut opponent, but it's a bad team.
While Atlanta is a losing team, the Falcons are constantly competitive.
They have not lost any of their last six games by more than six points.
To be exact, they lost tight ones to the Saints, Rams, and Bucs, and they beat the 49ers, Browns, and the Seahawks in Seattle.
Getting a touchdown with Atlanta seems like a steal to me.
But let's be careful: maybe there's reason to believe that either of the above trends is slated to end.
Baltimore's Quarterback Situation
Baltimore's overall outlook for this game hinges heavily on its quarterback situation.
Lamar Jackson has had a knee injury that has kept him from playing since he attempted four passes and one run on December 4.
Tyler Huntley has filled in for him. Including that December 4 game, Huntley-led Baltimore scraped by Denver and Pittsburgh before losing to Cleveland.
In those three games, Baltimore failed to exceed 16 points.
But the recent Ravens led by Lamar weren't much better, and this is relevant to note because Lamar is planning to return this week.
While, with Lamar at quarterback, they scored 27 points against Jacksonville, they were absurdly the repeat beneficiaries of great field position.
Before that game, they mustered 13 points against the Panthers.
Lamar's Struggles
Lamar struggles to pass accurately, especially outside the numbers.
He's also atrocious throwing deep -- he ranks 32nd in deep ball completion percentage -- which doesn't leave many other spaces for him to attack with his arm.
To be fair, he lacks help. His top wide receiver, Rashod Bateman, suffered a season-ending injury.
He also doesn't get help from his offensive coordinator.
Under Greg Roman, the Raven pass attack looks like a mess.
While Lamar's struggles in the pocket contribute to this problem, wide receivers who are lackluster in talent develop their routes too slowly and are often bunched together or otherwise positioned in ways that make it easier for defensive backs to account for them.
Whether Lamar plays or not, this team's offensive ceiling is terribly low.
Baltimore's Pass Defense
Baltimore's pass defense ranks a poor 25th.
While the Ravens are improving in this respect, they've also benefitted from facing the lowest-caliber quarterbacks.
Crucially, Baltimore is struggling just to win games while getting to face the likes of Cleveland's ultra-rusty Deshaun Watson, Pittsburgh's Mitch Trubisky, and dismal Denver disappointment Russell Wilson.
All of those quarterbacks struggle to be productive but found competitive success against Baltimore.
Of course, they didn't have to do too much, and neither will Atlanta's quarterback.
The Verdict
Hampered by poor quarterback play, lack of wide receiver talent, and an inept offensive coordinator, Baltimore lacks the capacity on offense to win by enough points to cover the spread.
Atlanta will continue to be competitive and not only because of Baltimore's offensive problems.
Especially with Drake London and running back Cordarrelle Patterson -- Baltimore allows the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs -- available in the passing game, the Falcon offense will do more than it enough against Baltimore's vulnerable pass defense.
Still, a run-heavy approach from Baltimore, in addition to its offensive deficiencies, the Ravens' star-laden linebacker corps, and injuries to Bateman as well as super athletic Falcon tight end Kyle Pitts will ensure that this game stays below the posted total.
For the above reasons, invest in the Falcons ATS and the "under."
Best Bet: Under 40 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Best Bet: Falcons +7 at -110 with BetOnline
The Odds
Does Baltimore deserve to be favored so heavily for this game?
Recent results say "no."
The Ravens have failed to win any of their last four games by more than two points -- they also lost two of those games.
Those four games were not exactly against juggernaut opponents, either. They lost to Jacksonville and Cleveland, and they edged out Denver and Pittsburgh.
One might say, however, that, yeah, Atlanta is not a juggernaut opponent, but it's a bad team.
While Atlanta is a losing team, the Falcons are constantly competitive.
They have not lost any of their last six games by more than six points.
To be exact, they lost tight ones to the Saints, Rams, and Bucs, and they beat the 49ers, Browns, and the Seahawks in Seattle.
Getting a touchdown with Atlanta seems like a steal to me.
But let's be careful: maybe there's reason to believe that either of the above trends is slated to end.
Baltimore's Quarterback Situation
Baltimore's overall outlook for this game hinges heavily on its quarterback situation.
Lamar Jackson has had a knee injury that has kept him from playing since he attempted four passes and one run on December 4.
Tyler Huntley has filled in for him. Including that December 4 game, Huntley-led Baltimore scraped by Denver and Pittsburgh before losing to Cleveland.
In those three games, Baltimore failed to exceed 16 points.
But the recent Ravens led by Lamar weren't much better, and this is relevant to note because Lamar is planning to return this week.
While, with Lamar at quarterback, they scored 27 points against Jacksonville, they were absurdly the repeat beneficiaries of great field position.
Before that game, they mustered 13 points against the Panthers.
Lamar's Struggles
Lamar struggles to pass accurately, especially outside the numbers.
He's also atrocious throwing deep -- he ranks 32nd in deep ball completion percentage -- which doesn't leave many other spaces for him to attack with his arm.
To be fair, he lacks help. His top wide receiver, Rashod Bateman, suffered a season-ending injury.
He also doesn't get help from his offensive coordinator.
Under Greg Roman, the Raven pass attack looks like a mess.
While Lamar's struggles in the pocket contribute to this problem, wide receivers who are lackluster in talent develop their routes too slowly and are often bunched together or otherwise positioned in ways that make it easier for defensive backs to account for them.
Whether Lamar plays or not, this team's offensive ceiling is terribly low.
Baltimore's Pass Defense
Baltimore's pass defense ranks a poor 25th.
While the Ravens are improving in this respect, they've also benefitted from facing the lowest-caliber quarterbacks.
Crucially, Baltimore is struggling just to win games while getting to face the likes of Cleveland's ultra-rusty Deshaun Watson, Pittsburgh's Mitch Trubisky, and dismal Denver disappointment Russell Wilson.
All of those quarterbacks struggle to be productive but found competitive success against Baltimore.
Of course, they didn't have to do too much, and neither will Atlanta's quarterback.
The Verdict
Hampered by poor quarterback play, lack of wide receiver talent, and an inept offensive coordinator, Baltimore lacks the capacity on offense to win by enough points to cover the spread.
Atlanta will continue to be competitive and not only because of Baltimore's offensive problems.
Especially with Drake London and running back Cordarrelle Patterson -- Baltimore allows the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs -- available in the passing game, the Falcon offense will do more than it enough against Baltimore's vulnerable pass defense.
Still, a run-heavy approach from Baltimore, in addition to its offensive deficiencies, the Ravens' star-laden linebacker corps, and injuries to Bateman as well as super athletic Falcon tight end Kyle Pitts will ensure that this game stays below the posted total.
For the above reasons, invest in the Falcons ATS and the "under."
Best Bet: Under 40 at -110 with BetOnline
