Falcons vs. Eagles Monday Night Football Odds and Betting Pick
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
The Kirk Cousins Question
When this game became available to bet on, bettors were eager to invest in the Eagles, moving the line from -6 to -6.5.
Philadelphia is being favored more heavily because of the nascent perception that Kirk Cousins is washed-up.
In order to assess both teams, we need to investigate whether this perception possesses any merit.
I strongly believe that Kirk Cousins is still capable of performing at a high level and that we should expect him to thrive next week.
Before I can elucidate this belief, we need to see, one, what went wrong in Atlanta's season opener, and, two, how things will look differently for the Falcons in Week 2.
What Went Wrong For Atlanta?
There is no denying that Atlanta's offense performed poorly in its 18-10 season-opening loss to Pittsburgh.
However, it is important to realize that Cousins was dealt a difficult hand.
All of the starters, including Cousins, sat out during the preseason.
His whole supporting cast, therefore, failed to approach its potential.
Let's start with Cousins' pass protection.
Cousins faced immense pressure from the Steelers, which is important because pressure from the defense is going to make it harder for even the best quarterback to perform well.
When Cousins was able to get passes off, he was generally unable to go through his progressions because of the rapidity with which opposing defenders met him with their pressure.
Moreover, his targets tended to struggle to create separation from defensive backs.
The takeaway here is that it is impossible to blame Cousins for the team's Week 1 debacle. The whole offense was bad, and he is just one player.
What Will Be Different: The Offensive Line
One, Cousins' offensive line will improve, both in pass protection and run-blocking.
Heading into the season, PFF ranked Atlanta's offensive line as one of the best. In particular, center Drew Dalman and Chris Lindstrom earned high grades for their performances last year.
But, without a preseason to fine-tune themselves, these offensive linemen did ridiculous and destructive things that they will review on film and not repeat.
In a video recording of all of Cousins' drop-backs last week, you can see the center drop his head every time right before he snaps the ball. For other reasons, too, it was entirely obvious to the Steelers' pass rushers when the snap would take place.
As a result, the Steelers' pass rushers had an absurdly easy time. But this is a simple issue to resolve.
What Else Will Be Different
Bettors are wrong to think that Cousins is washed-up.
Video footage from the Week 1 game shows that Cousins remains capable of making the sort of throws that a professional quarterback needs to make.
The problem is that, because he was unsettled by the immense Steelers' pressure, he lacked the confidence in his ability to take the time needed to make the physical movements that are required to make those throws.
With better pass protection, he will make better throws.
His pass-catchers will then also have more time to get open.
Moreover, the running will be better as well, not only because the offensive line will be fine-tuned, but also because the play-calling won't be so obvious.
If armchair observers can discern whether the Falcons will run or pass depending on whether they are lined up in shotgun, or pistol, etc., then Falcons coaches will be able to tell. This is another simple fix that will make the offense less predictable.
Again, the Falcons essentially used Week 1 as their preseason. Their preseason is over now, so we're going to see a competent NFL offense in Week 2 living up to what I will explain to be its strong potential.
Vic Fangio's Defense
I wanted to establish that Atlanta's offense is capable of improving drastically, because its Week 1 debacle has bettors erroneously believing that its quarterback is washed-up and that its offense is irreparably inept.
Before going on to explain the specifics of how Atlanta's offense matches up well against Philadelphia's defense, we need to talk about Philadelphia's defense.
The Eagles' defense is led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Fangio has a great reputation, but this is because of the past.
NFL offenses have Fangio quite figured out by now.
Now he's bouncing around from team to team.
Last year, the Dolphins ranked eleventh-to-last in points allowed per game. They separated themselves from Fangio after that one year with him.
Fangio now found a home in Philadelphia, where the front office has been enamored by him for a long time, formerly employing a defensive coordinator in Sean Desai who is a protege of Fangio.
Philadelphia allowed 29 points in Week 1. There is the worry that Eagles defenders will need more time to acclimate themselves to Fangio's scheme and concepts. But Atlanta's offense is no worse off in if they do.
Last year, Miami's Fangio-led defense thrived against bottom-feeder offenses: the Commanders, Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Patriots.
Those teams ranked 24th or worse in total offense last year.
We have to ask ourselves: is Atlanta's offense more competent and does it match up well against Fangio's scheme?
Atlanta's Rush Attack and Passing Potential
Fangio believes in light boxes, preferring to allocate resources to taking away big passing plays.
With his speed – he runs a 4.38 40-yard dash – wide receiver Darnell Mooney is a viable deep threat, only statistics from previous years don't show the extent of his vertical potential, because he's had inaccurate quarterbacks throwing to him.
With Mooney on the field for the Bears and with glaring question marks in his secondary room – Green Bay's pass attack was able to make big plays last week – Fangio is going to have to worry about deep balls from Cousins.
Last week, we saw some dink-and-dunk from Cousins.
While he is a statistically very accurate deep ball thrower, his comfort with the dink-and-dunk will help him be more effective against an Eagles defense that will be more vulnerable to this rather conservative style of offense because of its concern with the vertical prowess especially of the Cousins-to-Mooney connection.
When Atlanta progresses to the red zone, it has its running game and the height of pass-catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts – as end zone targets – to rely on.
Atlanta, though, characteristically wants to run the ball.
Led by the talented two-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta is a run-heavy team that, especially behind its excellent cast of returning starting offensive linemen who are primarily built to run-block, is primed to thrive against Philadelphia's light boxes.
We already saw how Green Bay averaged 7.8 YPC in Week 1, taking advantage of tremendous gaps in Philadelphia's run defense. Eagles defenders were frequently in poor position.
The key here is that Atlanta ranked 17th in total offense last year without a competent quarterback. It has a great supporting cast in place for the three-time Pro Bowl selection Cousins. It will get to face a profoundly vulnerable defense.
Philadelphia's Run Game
On the other side, Philadelphia will want to rely on its rush attack in order to help out Jalen Hurts, its quarterback who has been struggling since after 2022 and was a large part of Philadelphia's late-season collapse last year.
But the Falcons ranked ninth in limiting opposing YPC last year.
Signs point to their continued success in defending against the run.
In Week 1, they held the Steelers to 3.3 YPC, which was the third-worst YPC average last week.
The front seven is well-stocked with strong run-stoppers, such as linebacker Kaden Elliss who has been graded as one by PFF, and run-stuffer David Onyemata.
The Unreliable Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts can only be relied upon to do the wrong thing: he makes bad reads, bad decisions in general, and commits terrible turnovers.
Like last year – and we continued to see this in Week 1 – Philadelphia relies too heavily on an RPO game that has become all too predictable for opposing defenses.
But scheme and play-calling do not come close to explaining Hurts' struggles. These struggles are mental.
They are struggles that Atlanta has the play-makers in the secondary to exploit.
Cornerback A.J. Terrell is a former All-Pro selection. Safety Jessie Bates III picked off six passes last season.
Hurts threw 15 interceptions last year and already has thrown two this season.
The Trenches
Hurts badly needs support to make passing and decision-making easier for him, but he gets the opposite this year.
Life is harder for him with the retirement of stalwart center Jason Kelce.
Kelce was crucial as a leader and, more specifically, as a communicator.
He helped Hurts and the offense in general with pre-snap related issues.
Without him, Philadelphia's offensive line has had to do some shuffling and has had to give unproven guys greater responsibility.
It is a weaker unit this year, one that will have to deal with the likes of All-Pro selection Grady Jarrett, who achieved 1.5 sacks last week and helps make Atlanta's defensive line very difficult for offensive lines to handle.
Takeaway
It is not Cousins but Hurts who folks should be worried about.
We knew going into this season about Atlanta's strong offensive line, its well-rounded pass-catching crew consisting in big-bodied targets and deep-threat speedsters, its excellent running back room, and about Cousins' capabilities as a passer.
Atlanta had its preseason game in Week 1 and is now ready to go.
Hurts is the one who has been struggling for such an extended period of time with his turnovers and his bad decisions in general.
Atlanta's defense will contain Philadelphia's rush attack and punish Hurts for his mistakes, whereas Philadelphia's defense is suffering under Fangio's readily exploitable scheme and its problematic defensive back group.
Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 at -105 with Bet365
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
The Kirk Cousins Question
When this game became available to bet on, bettors were eager to invest in the Eagles, moving the line from -6 to -6.5.
Philadelphia is being favored more heavily because of the nascent perception that Kirk Cousins is washed-up.
In order to assess both teams, we need to investigate whether this perception possesses any merit.
I strongly believe that Kirk Cousins is still capable of performing at a high level and that we should expect him to thrive next week.
Before I can elucidate this belief, we need to see, one, what went wrong in Atlanta's season opener, and, two, how things will look differently for the Falcons in Week 2.
What Went Wrong For Atlanta?
There is no denying that Atlanta's offense performed poorly in its 18-10 season-opening loss to Pittsburgh.
However, it is important to realize that Cousins was dealt a difficult hand.
All of the starters, including Cousins, sat out during the preseason.
His whole supporting cast, therefore, failed to approach its potential.
Let's start with Cousins' pass protection.
Cousins faced immense pressure from the Steelers, which is important because pressure from the defense is going to make it harder for even the best quarterback to perform well.
When Cousins was able to get passes off, he was generally unable to go through his progressions because of the rapidity with which opposing defenders met him with their pressure.
Moreover, his targets tended to struggle to create separation from defensive backs.
The takeaway here is that it is impossible to blame Cousins for the team's Week 1 debacle. The whole offense was bad, and he is just one player.
What Will Be Different: The Offensive Line
One, Cousins' offensive line will improve, both in pass protection and run-blocking.
Heading into the season, PFF ranked Atlanta's offensive line as one of the best. In particular, center Drew Dalman and Chris Lindstrom earned high grades for their performances last year.
But, without a preseason to fine-tune themselves, these offensive linemen did ridiculous and destructive things that they will review on film and not repeat.
In a video recording of all of Cousins' drop-backs last week, you can see the center drop his head every time right before he snaps the ball. For other reasons, too, it was entirely obvious to the Steelers' pass rushers when the snap would take place.
As a result, the Steelers' pass rushers had an absurdly easy time. But this is a simple issue to resolve.
What Else Will Be Different
Bettors are wrong to think that Cousins is washed-up.
Video footage from the Week 1 game shows that Cousins remains capable of making the sort of throws that a professional quarterback needs to make.
The problem is that, because he was unsettled by the immense Steelers' pressure, he lacked the confidence in his ability to take the time needed to make the physical movements that are required to make those throws.
With better pass protection, he will make better throws.
His pass-catchers will then also have more time to get open.
Moreover, the running will be better as well, not only because the offensive line will be fine-tuned, but also because the play-calling won't be so obvious.
If armchair observers can discern whether the Falcons will run or pass depending on whether they are lined up in shotgun, or pistol, etc., then Falcons coaches will be able to tell. This is another simple fix that will make the offense less predictable.
Again, the Falcons essentially used Week 1 as their preseason. Their preseason is over now, so we're going to see a competent NFL offense in Week 2 living up to what I will explain to be its strong potential.
Vic Fangio's Defense
I wanted to establish that Atlanta's offense is capable of improving drastically, because its Week 1 debacle has bettors erroneously believing that its quarterback is washed-up and that its offense is irreparably inept.
Before going on to explain the specifics of how Atlanta's offense matches up well against Philadelphia's defense, we need to talk about Philadelphia's defense.
The Eagles' defense is led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Fangio has a great reputation, but this is because of the past.
NFL offenses have Fangio quite figured out by now.
Now he's bouncing around from team to team.
Last year, the Dolphins ranked eleventh-to-last in points allowed per game. They separated themselves from Fangio after that one year with him.
Fangio now found a home in Philadelphia, where the front office has been enamored by him for a long time, formerly employing a defensive coordinator in Sean Desai who is a protege of Fangio.
Philadelphia allowed 29 points in Week 1. There is the worry that Eagles defenders will need more time to acclimate themselves to Fangio's scheme and concepts. But Atlanta's offense is no worse off in if they do.
Last year, Miami's Fangio-led defense thrived against bottom-feeder offenses: the Commanders, Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Patriots.
Those teams ranked 24th or worse in total offense last year.
We have to ask ourselves: is Atlanta's offense more competent and does it match up well against Fangio's scheme?
Atlanta's Rush Attack and Passing Potential
Fangio believes in light boxes, preferring to allocate resources to taking away big passing plays.
With his speed – he runs a 4.38 40-yard dash – wide receiver Darnell Mooney is a viable deep threat, only statistics from previous years don't show the extent of his vertical potential, because he's had inaccurate quarterbacks throwing to him.
With Mooney on the field for the Bears and with glaring question marks in his secondary room – Green Bay's pass attack was able to make big plays last week – Fangio is going to have to worry about deep balls from Cousins.
Last week, we saw some dink-and-dunk from Cousins.
While he is a statistically very accurate deep ball thrower, his comfort with the dink-and-dunk will help him be more effective against an Eagles defense that will be more vulnerable to this rather conservative style of offense because of its concern with the vertical prowess especially of the Cousins-to-Mooney connection.
When Atlanta progresses to the red zone, it has its running game and the height of pass-catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts – as end zone targets – to rely on.
Atlanta, though, characteristically wants to run the ball.
Led by the talented two-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta is a run-heavy team that, especially behind its excellent cast of returning starting offensive linemen who are primarily built to run-block, is primed to thrive against Philadelphia's light boxes.
We already saw how Green Bay averaged 7.8 YPC in Week 1, taking advantage of tremendous gaps in Philadelphia's run defense. Eagles defenders were frequently in poor position.
The key here is that Atlanta ranked 17th in total offense last year without a competent quarterback. It has a great supporting cast in place for the three-time Pro Bowl selection Cousins. It will get to face a profoundly vulnerable defense.
Philadelphia's Run Game
On the other side, Philadelphia will want to rely on its rush attack in order to help out Jalen Hurts, its quarterback who has been struggling since after 2022 and was a large part of Philadelphia's late-season collapse last year.
But the Falcons ranked ninth in limiting opposing YPC last year.
Signs point to their continued success in defending against the run.
In Week 1, they held the Steelers to 3.3 YPC, which was the third-worst YPC average last week.
The front seven is well-stocked with strong run-stoppers, such as linebacker Kaden Elliss who has been graded as one by PFF, and run-stuffer David Onyemata.
The Unreliable Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts can only be relied upon to do the wrong thing: he makes bad reads, bad decisions in general, and commits terrible turnovers.
Like last year – and we continued to see this in Week 1 – Philadelphia relies too heavily on an RPO game that has become all too predictable for opposing defenses.
But scheme and play-calling do not come close to explaining Hurts' struggles. These struggles are mental.
They are struggles that Atlanta has the play-makers in the secondary to exploit.
Cornerback A.J. Terrell is a former All-Pro selection. Safety Jessie Bates III picked off six passes last season.
Hurts threw 15 interceptions last year and already has thrown two this season.
The Trenches
Hurts badly needs support to make passing and decision-making easier for him, but he gets the opposite this year.
Life is harder for him with the retirement of stalwart center Jason Kelce.
Kelce was crucial as a leader and, more specifically, as a communicator.
He helped Hurts and the offense in general with pre-snap related issues.
Without him, Philadelphia's offensive line has had to do some shuffling and has had to give unproven guys greater responsibility.
It is a weaker unit this year, one that will have to deal with the likes of All-Pro selection Grady Jarrett, who achieved 1.5 sacks last week and helps make Atlanta's defensive line very difficult for offensive lines to handle.
Takeaway
It is not Cousins but Hurts who folks should be worried about.
We knew going into this season about Atlanta's strong offensive line, its well-rounded pass-catching crew consisting in big-bodied targets and deep-threat speedsters, its excellent running back room, and about Cousins' capabilities as a passer.
Atlanta had its preseason game in Week 1 and is now ready to go.
Hurts is the one who has been struggling for such an extended period of time with his turnovers and his bad decisions in general.
Atlanta's defense will contain Philadelphia's rush attack and punish Hurts for his mistakes, whereas Philadelphia's defense is suffering under Fangio's readily exploitable scheme and its problematic defensive back group.
Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 at -105 with Bet365
