Title: Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Week 7 Picks
Falcons vs. Dolphins Week 7 Game Info
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens
85 degrees with a chance of thunderstorms
Falcons vs. Dolphins Odds
Both the spread and the over/under have basically stayed put all week: at most sportsbooks, the Falcons are favored by 2.5 points while the over/under sits at 47.5.
Falcons vs. Dolphins Picks
Falcons -2.5 (-115)
Over 47.5 (-110)
Falcons vs. Dolphins Predictions
ATS PLAY (2.5)
Miami is in a must-fade situation for two reasons, one related to travel and the other related to player morale.
Last Sunday, the Dolphins played in London. Traveling to London is quite a trip and making that trip takes a toll on one’s body. Usually, therefore, teams receive a bye week after playing in London.
Teams tend to struggle when they don’t get this bye week. Jacksonville, for example, in the year it nearly made the Super Bowl, managed to lose to the Jets when it played them a week after decimating Baltimore in London.
The Dolphins are also worth fading due to a barrage of reports indicating the unwillingness of several players to be there. These reports suggest a cultural issue that is not being factored by oddsmakers. Being on a 1-5 team that just lost to the previously winless Jaguars surely cannot help improve player morale.
I will talk about the Dolphin and Falcon defenses in the “Total” section, but now I will discuss the edge that Atlanta’s offense enjoys.
I like Atlanta’s offense more than Miami’s largely because top wide receiver and famously speedy playmaker Calvin Ridley is back. He is thankfully not dealing with any injury issues. It was a “personal matter” that had kept him away.
Ridley’s speed is particularly useful against a Dolphin defense that loves to blitz under Brian Flores. When blitzers are putting pressure on the opposing quarterback, that quarterback will want to respond by quickly finding a pass-catcher. Ridley, with his speed, can quickly gain separation from opposing defensive backs so that Ryan can find him.
Ryan has multiple other go-to options when the Dolphins blitz. One is tight end Kyle Pitts, an athletic target whose size makes him easier to find. The other is Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield. Pitts is coming off his highest reception total (9) of the season and Patterson regularly accrues at least five receptions.
Atlanta’s offensive stats reflect their initial difficulty getting used to a new offense under new coaches.
But their recent 27-point output against New York reflects further success in adapting. Since low-quality performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Ryan has thrown eight touchdowns to zero interceptions in three games.
TOTALS PLAY (47.5)
Miami’s defense is not remotely the force that it was last year. In fact, the Dolphins rank 30th in total defense.
A slew of factors contributes to Miami’s overall regression. In sack rate, the Dolphins rank 20 spots worse than they did last year.
While they are pressuring and hitting the quarterback – particularly because they blitz – they aren’t finishing the job.
Their blitzing and weaker secondary play in general make it easier for opposing pass-catchers to get open quickly.
The Dolphins’ weaker pass defense prevents them from getting off the field on third downs. Miami allows the second-most third-down conversions per game as opposing offenses drive downfield and wear down the Dolphin defense.
A well-stocked Falcon offense will be able to score a lot, particularly by making use of its weapons in the air, against Miami’s defense.
But particularly with Tua back at quarterback, the Dolphins can also do some scoring of their own against Atlanta’s defense, which “improved” to 13th after getting to face a New York offense that shares the issues with talent that frequently keeps Falcon defenders from making plays that they’re in a position to make.
Falcons vs. Dolphins Week 7 Game Info
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens
85 degrees with a chance of thunderstorms
Falcons vs. Dolphins Odds
Both the spread and the over/under have basically stayed put all week: at most sportsbooks, the Falcons are favored by 2.5 points while the over/under sits at 47.5.
Falcons vs. Dolphins Picks
Falcons -2.5 (-115)
Over 47.5 (-110)
Falcons vs. Dolphins Predictions
ATS PLAY (2.5)
Miami is in a must-fade situation for two reasons, one related to travel and the other related to player morale.
Last Sunday, the Dolphins played in London. Traveling to London is quite a trip and making that trip takes a toll on one’s body. Usually, therefore, teams receive a bye week after playing in London.
Teams tend to struggle when they don’t get this bye week. Jacksonville, for example, in the year it nearly made the Super Bowl, managed to lose to the Jets when it played them a week after decimating Baltimore in London.
The Dolphins are also worth fading due to a barrage of reports indicating the unwillingness of several players to be there. These reports suggest a cultural issue that is not being factored by oddsmakers. Being on a 1-5 team that just lost to the previously winless Jaguars surely cannot help improve player morale.
I will talk about the Dolphin and Falcon defenses in the “Total” section, but now I will discuss the edge that Atlanta’s offense enjoys.
I like Atlanta’s offense more than Miami’s largely because top wide receiver and famously speedy playmaker Calvin Ridley is back. He is thankfully not dealing with any injury issues. It was a “personal matter” that had kept him away.
Ridley’s speed is particularly useful against a Dolphin defense that loves to blitz under Brian Flores. When blitzers are putting pressure on the opposing quarterback, that quarterback will want to respond by quickly finding a pass-catcher. Ridley, with his speed, can quickly gain separation from opposing defensive backs so that Ryan can find him.
Ryan has multiple other go-to options when the Dolphins blitz. One is tight end Kyle Pitts, an athletic target whose size makes him easier to find. The other is Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield. Pitts is coming off his highest reception total (9) of the season and Patterson regularly accrues at least five receptions.
Atlanta’s offensive stats reflect their initial difficulty getting used to a new offense under new coaches.
But their recent 27-point output against New York reflects further success in adapting. Since low-quality performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Ryan has thrown eight touchdowns to zero interceptions in three games.
TOTALS PLAY (47.5)
Miami’s defense is not remotely the force that it was last year. In fact, the Dolphins rank 30th in total defense.
A slew of factors contributes to Miami’s overall regression. In sack rate, the Dolphins rank 20 spots worse than they did last year.
While they are pressuring and hitting the quarterback – particularly because they blitz – they aren’t finishing the job.
Their blitzing and weaker secondary play in general make it easier for opposing pass-catchers to get open quickly.
The Dolphins’ weaker pass defense prevents them from getting off the field on third downs. Miami allows the second-most third-down conversions per game as opposing offenses drive downfield and wear down the Dolphin defense.
A well-stocked Falcon offense will be able to score a lot, particularly by making use of its weapons in the air, against Miami’s defense.
But particularly with Tua back at quarterback, the Dolphins can also do some scoring of their own against Atlanta’s defense, which “improved” to 13th after getting to face a New York offense that shares the issues with talent that frequently keeps Falcon defenders from making plays that they’re in a position to make.
