Falcons vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 2 & Game Predictions
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Dallas’ Secondary
Ranked in the bottom 10 by PFF, Dallas’s secondary will pose much less of a threat to Atlanta’s pass attack than Seattle did in Week 1.
It’s hard to quantify Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan’s opening performance in Week 1.
While he accumulated an absurd 450 yards against Seattle’s revamped and newly stacked secondary, much of that came in garbage time.
Against Dallas’s secondary, though, I think that Ryan can approach those same numbers.
Missing Byron Jones
Byron Jones’ departure for Miami dealt a significant blow to the Cowboys’ secondary.
Jones was one of the higher-ranked cornerbacks largely due to his excellence in press coverage.
Without him, Dallas misses a true number one cornerback.
Dallas did decide to draft a cornerback in the first round of the NFL Draft.
In the long run, so the Cowboys hope, Trevon Diggs assumes a similarly positive role in their secondary.
But, as many scouting reports attested after the Draft, Diggs’ skill set is still very much raw.
His rawness stems from the fact that he suffered an extensive history at Alabama. He also started out as a wide receiver.
So he still has a lot to learn at the position.
Right now, Dallas’ secondary is bottom-10 and regressed without Byron Jones.
Atlanta Receivers vs. Cowboy Secondary
Without Jones, Chidobe Awuzie is Dallas’ top remaining cornerback.
Awuzie became famous for his speed after chasing down Saquon Barkley.
His speed makes him appear to be a suitable match-up against Falcon speedster Calvin Ridley.
But if he sticks to Ridley, then Dallas doesn’t have anybody with the polished skill set to contain Julio Jones on the outside.
Based on accumulated yards with less separation and contested catch rate, Jones doesn’t need to procure much room, if any at all, for himself in order to be a reliable pass-catcher.
While Awuzie is also touted for his physicality, he doesn’t have the size or ball skills to contain Jones, which is why he stayed away from trying to cover top receivers when Byron Jones was still on the team.
Diggs, with his rawness, will be exposed either way. He lacks the polish to contain Ridley as well.
Ridley came out of Alabama being highly regarded for his route-running skills.
These plus his speed enabled him to lead all receivers in average cushion in 2019, which means that he regularly separated himself superbly from the defender trying to cover him.
Either way, Julio Jones will have a lower-caliber cornerback covering him.
At tight end, Hayden Hurst with his excellent hands will also play a strong role against this regressed Cowboy secondary that allowed one of the highest yardage totals to tight ends last season.
Falcons Secondary
Atlanta’s situation is similar to Dallas' in some important respects.
One, the Falcons are struggling to deal with the loss of their top cornerback, veteran Desmond Trufant.
Two, they have to rely more than any team could want to on undeveloped youth — in particular on a raw and unproven rookie.
In his first game, Atlanta's rookie cornerback A.J. Terrell allowed 100 receiving yards plus a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Even with Trufant last season, Atlanta ranked 28th in allowing 299 passing yards per game last season.
Dallas has a deep receiving crew with which to take advantage.
Multi-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper is one obvious candidate to take advantage.
Michael Gallup, too, is coming off a season in which he eclipsed 1,100 yards.
Support On The Ground
Both teams field ground attacks with which to keep defenses honest.
During its offseason, Atlanta lost its leading tackler De’Vondre Campbell.
Deion Jones remains the only Falcon linebacker with much of a history of productivity.
Despite ranking below-average in opposing YPC, Atlanta didn’t allow many rushing yards last season because opponents wanted to pass 65 percent of the time against it.
So it won’t take much to keep Atlanta honest. Dallas has more than enough to do so with one of the best running backs in the game in Ezekiel Elliott.
As for the Falcons, Todd Gurley had a promising debut in their uniform as he averaged four YPC in a game where the score prevented the Falcons from investing much in their run game.
Dallas’ linebacking corps is beleaguered thanks to injuries to Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee.
Each linebacker’s presence is crucial to limiting the opposing team’s run game as Dallas’ run defense statistics without either one have shown in the past.
Gurley will have no problem being decent enough on Sunday.
The Verdict
Both teams will dominate in the passing game partly because each top receiver will face a cornerback who’s being forced into adapting his team’s top cover role.
Furthermore, the depth and quality of each receiving crew will show against secondaries that overly depend on raw youth.
Expect a high-scoring game that features high productivity both from Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-105) with Heritage
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Dallas’ Secondary
Ranked in the bottom 10 by PFF, Dallas’s secondary will pose much less of a threat to Atlanta’s pass attack than Seattle did in Week 1.
It’s hard to quantify Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan’s opening performance in Week 1.
While he accumulated an absurd 450 yards against Seattle’s revamped and newly stacked secondary, much of that came in garbage time.
Against Dallas’s secondary, though, I think that Ryan can approach those same numbers.
Missing Byron Jones
Byron Jones’ departure for Miami dealt a significant blow to the Cowboys’ secondary.
Jones was one of the higher-ranked cornerbacks largely due to his excellence in press coverage.
Without him, Dallas misses a true number one cornerback.
Dallas did decide to draft a cornerback in the first round of the NFL Draft.
In the long run, so the Cowboys hope, Trevon Diggs assumes a similarly positive role in their secondary.
But, as many scouting reports attested after the Draft, Diggs’ skill set is still very much raw.
His rawness stems from the fact that he suffered an extensive history at Alabama. He also started out as a wide receiver.
So he still has a lot to learn at the position.
Right now, Dallas’ secondary is bottom-10 and regressed without Byron Jones.
Atlanta Receivers vs. Cowboy Secondary
Without Jones, Chidobe Awuzie is Dallas’ top remaining cornerback.
Awuzie became famous for his speed after chasing down Saquon Barkley.
His speed makes him appear to be a suitable match-up against Falcon speedster Calvin Ridley.
But if he sticks to Ridley, then Dallas doesn’t have anybody with the polished skill set to contain Julio Jones on the outside.
Based on accumulated yards with less separation and contested catch rate, Jones doesn’t need to procure much room, if any at all, for himself in order to be a reliable pass-catcher.
While Awuzie is also touted for his physicality, he doesn’t have the size or ball skills to contain Jones, which is why he stayed away from trying to cover top receivers when Byron Jones was still on the team.
Diggs, with his rawness, will be exposed either way. He lacks the polish to contain Ridley as well.
Ridley came out of Alabama being highly regarded for his route-running skills.
These plus his speed enabled him to lead all receivers in average cushion in 2019, which means that he regularly separated himself superbly from the defender trying to cover him.
Either way, Julio Jones will have a lower-caliber cornerback covering him.
At tight end, Hayden Hurst with his excellent hands will also play a strong role against this regressed Cowboy secondary that allowed one of the highest yardage totals to tight ends last season.
Falcons Secondary
Atlanta’s situation is similar to Dallas' in some important respects.
One, the Falcons are struggling to deal with the loss of their top cornerback, veteran Desmond Trufant.
Two, they have to rely more than any team could want to on undeveloped youth — in particular on a raw and unproven rookie.
In his first game, Atlanta's rookie cornerback A.J. Terrell allowed 100 receiving yards plus a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Even with Trufant last season, Atlanta ranked 28th in allowing 299 passing yards per game last season.
Dallas has a deep receiving crew with which to take advantage.
Multi-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper is one obvious candidate to take advantage.
Michael Gallup, too, is coming off a season in which he eclipsed 1,100 yards.
Support On The Ground
Both teams field ground attacks with which to keep defenses honest.
During its offseason, Atlanta lost its leading tackler De’Vondre Campbell.
Deion Jones remains the only Falcon linebacker with much of a history of productivity.
Despite ranking below-average in opposing YPC, Atlanta didn’t allow many rushing yards last season because opponents wanted to pass 65 percent of the time against it.
So it won’t take much to keep Atlanta honest. Dallas has more than enough to do so with one of the best running backs in the game in Ezekiel Elliott.
As for the Falcons, Todd Gurley had a promising debut in their uniform as he averaged four YPC in a game where the score prevented the Falcons from investing much in their run game.
Dallas’ linebacking corps is beleaguered thanks to injuries to Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee.
Each linebacker’s presence is crucial to limiting the opposing team’s run game as Dallas’ run defense statistics without either one have shown in the past.
Gurley will have no problem being decent enough on Sunday.
The Verdict
Both teams will dominate in the passing game partly because each top receiver will face a cornerback who’s being forced into adapting his team’s top cover role.
Furthermore, the depth and quality of each receiving crew will show against secondaries that overly depend on raw youth.
Expect a high-scoring game that features high productivity both from Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-105) with Heritage
