FADE list 2021 (please add your fade teams)

L8kersFan74

L8kersFan74

Pretty much a regular
These teams might cover here or there, but, I'm pretty damn sure you blindly fade rest of way in '21 you'll make solid profits.

Just two off top of head for now:

(and both these teams public teams, so you're getting inflated lines every week)

tOSU ........defense is garbage, enjoy the profits

Texas ........they won't be good until MAYBE '22 or most likely '23 or '24 IF they get there...just not a good football team right now, under a FR QB as well.

Please add to the list, fellas.
 
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Potential adds (off top of head):

aTm .......they've shown nothing against two lesser opponents thus far, they were supposed to be legit this season.....gonna get steamrolled at home by Bama in 4 weeks (Oct 9)
 
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Houghton Chemical said:
Navy. O-line can’t protect, QB can’t throw, offense is one dimensional and can’t score. OC was fired after today’s game. In their last five games dating back to last season, Navy scored 7, 6, 0, 7, 3.
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You are right on that. Game yesterday was like torture watching (I needed Navy). The thing that threw me off was all the yards they had on Marshall, then yesterday they had just a single solitary first down through 3 full quarters of the game.
 
Virtually impossible to blindly fade anyone for me because other than CBB this sport sees more change from start to finish of the season than anything professional. And I love a good fade train. But agree on NAVY, they have always had a certain respect in the gambling world and it's going to take a ton for them to right the ship, no pun. They are a ton different than what we've come to know of that program.
 
HUNT said:
Kid had a 16 yard kick.

Then they let one fly over the kickers head for a safety. Team is so brutal
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Think we still get a couple weeks of perception v reality on Navy and Indiana, probably Notre Dame as well

None of the three seem to be decent after 2 weeks but they'll still be lined like they are. It will fade come October
 
Easy to talk about teams that have underperformed in the first two weeks but I'm looking at two who have outperformed my expectation to reduce back to where I expect them

New Mexico State for all intent an purpose got a boost by having a 10-0 lead at SDSU at halftime. Pretty sure that doesn't happen again.

Michigan State are really not good, first couple weeks they bullied defenses with a run game that wasn't expected but once defenses make them pass it will be ugly and that should happen sooner than later

Mississippi St will likely battle Vandy for worst team in the SEC
 
Big school fades:
Notre Dame
Texas
Michigan covered 2 but come on its preseason. A bad Pac 12 conference team and the Pac 12 is a shadow of its self and Western Michigan -17 only. This is a set up to fail come conference. Even this week laying -27
Tennessee they have been not good covering maybe not the worst but have not shown to cover too many in a row.
Clemson thats right they had a huge cover steak going 18-2 before they lost to LSU in the Championship in 2019 since then they are not covering.
Arizona State when playing scrub teams. Herm is so nice he doesnt play to rub their nose in the game. Listen to him and I know fading them against nobodys will return profits
Hawaii the just do poorly at home after a road game. 3-16-1 as home chalk last 20

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Pittsburgh was very unimpressive on defense. The bad angles, tackling, the narduzzi playcalling that leaves wide open bombs constantly. Pitt is a heart attack defense, but even when there are guys there to stop the offense they can't tackle.
Illinois - these guys come out and play the worst coverages you will ever see to start a game. Lot of holes.
south florida - jeff scott sucks
 
spottie2935 said:
Arizona State when playing scrub teams. Herm is so nice he doesnt play to rub their nose in the game. Listen to him and I know fading them against nobodys will return profits
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I was involved in both ASU games so far, both losses, a 1st H loss vs Southern Utah and a Game Over loss vs UNLV. Has nothing to do with Herm being a nice guy, ASU was actually trying to score in the final seconds of the game vs SUU. Jaylen Daniels has been complimented for his lack of turnovers (just 3 INTs 2019 and 2020 combined). Last week he threw an INT in the EZ. ASU also had to settle for a FG after having a 1st and goal inside the LV05 late in game (ASU 3 runs with a fumble, Daniels was still in). That makes twice late in the game near the goal line ASU was trying to score and couldn't. They were really sloppy week 1. They cut the penalties from 13-135 week 1 to 7-63 week 2. I think ASU has a lot of potential, but if the first two games are any indication to me watching some of it, they are off. I mean what team is going to allow UNLV to score on their two opening drives of the game? ASU did. I think ASU didn't cover either game because they aren't playing their best football, not because Herm doesn't want to make the other teams look bad.
 
s--k said:
I was involved in both ASU games so far, both losses, a 1st H loss vs Southern Utah and a Game Over loss vs UNLV. Has nothing to do with Herm being a nice guy, ASU was actually trying to score in the final seconds of the game vs SUU. Jaylen Daniels has been complimented for his lack of turnovers (just 3 INTs 2019 and 2020 combined). Last week he threw an INT in the EZ. ASU also had to settle for a FG after having a 1st and goal inside the LV05 late in game (ASU 3 runs with a fumble, Daniels was still in). That makes twice late in the game near the goal line ASU was trying to score and couldn't. They were really sloppy week 1. They cut the penalties from 13-135 week 1 to 7-63 week 2. I think ASU has a lot of potential, but if the first two games are any indication to me watching some of it, they are off. I mean what team is going to allow UNLV to score on their two opening drives of the game? ASU did. I think ASU didn't cover either game because they aren't playing their best football, not because Herm doesn't want to make the other teams look bad.
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Are you involved with every game? seems like it. I don't have enough time to watch and know as much as yourself. Good on you for being so passionate about betting football. I just know that ASU is not a powerhouse that have been laying power house school numbers and not cashing tickets. I could go over stats and play by play but no need to. ASU when laying big numbers has fallen short for what ever the reason. Doesn't matter how to me though. Fade away. Give me Herm as a dog or a reasonable line. I think he is still building that program and the lines have them as the top schools. Big time fail. I am going to start paying closer attention to ASU now. It interesting team to me because I like Herm. Maybe not the best coach, but I like him.
 
spottie2935 said:
Are you involved with every game? seems like it. I don't have enough time to watch and know as much as yourself. Good on you for being so passionate about betting football. I just know that ASU is not a powerhouse that have been laying power house school numbers and not cashing tickets. I could go over stats and play by play but no need to. ASU when laying big numbers has fallen short for what ever the reason. Doesn't matter how to me though. Fade away. Give me Herm as a dog or a reasonable line. I think he is still building that program and the lines have them as the top schools. Big time fail. I am going to start paying closer attention to ASU now. It interesting team to me because I like Herm. Maybe not the best coach, but I like him.
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You are fine, I feel the need to push back against over simplification sometimes. I don't take every game, but pretty close sometimes. It's fun for me. And it's fun for me to learn things from people here. I share what I come across and appreciate everyone else sharing their opinions and information too, it makes us all better!
 
s--k said:
You are fine, I feel the need to push back against over simplification sometimes. I don't take every game, but pretty close sometimes. It's fun for me. And it's fun for me to learn things from people here. I share what I come across and appreciate everyone else sharing their opinions and information too, it makes us all better!
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yea its cool when ever I post i know someone is going to pick on something. I wasnt specific enough but I post on a few sites. not enough time to run everything. Keep up the good work :clapping2:
 
spottie2935 said:
yea its cool when ever I post i know someone is going to pick on something. I wasnt specific enough but I post on a few sites. not enough time to run everything. Keep up the good work :clapping2:
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ASU value is low right now, not saying to take them but after two weeks it's time to figure out when to strike. Just like any investment.
 
KJ said:
ASU value is low right now, not saying to take them but after two weeks it's time to figure out when to strike. Just like any investment.
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No dispute, this is a line they can overcome. I didn't mean to say ASU is crap I just think the lines makers are giving them preseason extra credit. To me there might be a few situations, like this one to take advantage but as a whole teams that are favorites every week are not the easiest to count on. Elite SEC teams and Ohio St. yes, PAC12 I havent seen it. Even though I like AsU this week doesn't mean I am over confident. I actually wouldn't mind seeing them lose. Motivation extra hard practices and reduced lines because of lack of trusting that team. I love that !
 
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