Examination

[tuck321]

Spurs this season in first game of a b-b in the first quarter
16-23 loss at home to Dallas Only missing Ginobli but still a raw team much better now
20-20 at home Knicks missing Parker and Ginobli
15-23 at the Kings missing the troops just Duncan Urdith playing
home Grizz everyone playing 17-16
At Dallas everyone playing 17-22
At NO everyone playing 15-14
Note that the Dallas situation duplicates the one tonight
Last 3 away first quarter Sac after the coaching change
21-29 loss at NO pretty good first quarter team No Urdith
At Houston 33-30 with Urdith
At Portland with Urdith 27-28
Last 4 first quarters at Spurs most recent first
19-23 spurs
10-17 spurs
22-23 spurs
26-26
This is Urdith's first game back at San Antonio where he still has a home.
Spurs when they play at Minn tomorrow will be playing 5-7. It seems to me that they have already shown a desire to play slow in these first quarters and not worry about margin of victory.
Only one game in the last 4 at the site has gone over this total and getting 4 last 4 at the site you would have gone 2-1-1.
I bet the quarter under 49.5 and took Kings plus 4
These bets last 4 would have gone 5-2-1
Will list some game picks later

 

[tuck321]

Have played Grizz plus 12 for 1 unit
Have .5 unit bet on the game over 203.5 which is no longer available which may be good as I am starting to wonder about it
Have a .5 unit on GS plus 7 first half and will probably have something tiny on them for the game
Have a half unit on GS under 219
Made a bet on Rockets minus 4 for game but have bet Nets plus 6 for 60% of the original bet because of the public love of the Rockets here. Will take a moment here to talk about this game. Tomorrow the Nets will play at Indiana where they will have a reasonable chance of winning. Tomorrow the Rockets will be playing at Cleveland with me on most numbers playing Cleveland against them in a 4th in 5 spot that they went 0-3 in last year. They have 2 days off after that and then play NO a team they dislike greatly and then Utah for the first time since Utah knocked them out of the playoffs for the second year. Rockets are a pragmatic team. They are in the West and need wins and I do not expect them to be able to focus on Cleveland tomorrow and if they did I believe they would still lose badly and they have not been covering on the road when they lose so I do not see this as a look ahead. I am seeing this as a prudent superior team taking a needed win before a loss but it just kills me to be on Public sides so I am middling most of the bet.

 

[tuck321]

Will talk a little about the Laker game. I think they remember who gave them Pavol. I think they also also feel they must win the game if for no other reason then Pavol but in this brother-brother match up with NO the next day and Boston waiting in 3 expecting them to be really interested in a blood bath here might be pushing it. Just seeing it more of a party hardy type of spot where they try and forget their problems and be aware that their game the next day vs NO is typically a Under game where they will once again as in Orlando try to EXECUTE and get ready for the meeting in Boston.
Concerning the GS total
Last 10 in first game of a b-b GS has 9 road games. The under in those games is 6-3. Last 10 between these teams they are 5-5. Do not see real heat here. Miami is different. They are 3-7 vs Miami last 10 and know they should have won the game they played at home against them earlier this year. They will play hard tomorrow and I will be looking at them and the over probably.

 

[GWarner27]

i like the Grizz as i think the Lakers are in a funk

 

[tuck321]

The spread is out tomorrow in Cleveland Houston. Cleveland is minus 7.5. Getting Cleveland under 8 is only moderately important here. Last 10 when Houston was a dog getting 8 or less they were 10-10 su and lost large in 9 of the 10 games. The one loss where they covered was at home. Silly me I actually thought we might see a higher number here. Houston wins when they out rebound teams. No one out rebounds Cleveland at home. Boston, Portland and Cleveland are the best rebounding teams in the NBA and Houston will be playing 4 in 5 which is really not very good for Chinese Giants.

 

[JPicks]

Some good angles tuck. I still like the Nets though. I'm not sure the Rockets can take wins when they want them. They did lose the Clipps and Grizz recently on the road. Nets are 10-3 L13 getting 3.5-9.5 points, including 8-2 SU L10 in that spot. They won SU as 3.5 point dogs, 4.5, 8.5, 9, 3.5, 8.5, 9.5, and 4 point dogs. The two losses were as 5.5 point home dogs to Cleveland and 4.5 point dogs @Chicago. I'll likely be playing the Nets ML in hopes that the trend continues.

 

[divol]

Good luck Tuck! Nice write ups

 

[tuck321]

Really sympathize with that view and with the middle in it does not matter much to me but in general in situations where team a and b play and a has a really tough game tomorrow and b has a soft one bet on a in the first game. Like using a and b to get emotions out of it but on a more specific note Nets are still at best a middle tier Eastern team playing a top 7 Western team and you are getting the value for 5.5 points.

 

[Mo]

:cheers:GREAT WRITE UP

 

[Peldas]

Spurs this season in first game of a b-b in the first quarter
16-23 loss at home to Dallas Only missing Ginobli but still a raw team much better now
20-20 at home Knicks missing Parker and Ginobli
15-23 at the Kings missing the troops just Duncan Urdith playing
home Grizz everyone playing 17-16
At Dallas everyone playing 17-22
At NO everyone playing 15-14
Note that the Dallas situation duplicates the one tonight
Last 3 away first quarter Sac after the coaching change
21-29 loss at NO pretty good first quarter team No Urdith
At Houston 33-30 with Urdith
At Portland with Urdith 27-28
Last 4 first quarters at Spurs most recent first
19-23 spurs
10-17 spurs
22-23 spurs
26-26
This is Urdith's first game back at San Antonio where he still has a home.
Spurs when they play at Minn tomorrow will be playing 5-7. It seems to me that they have already shown a desire to play slow in these first quarters and not worry about margin of victory.
Only one game in the last 4 at the site has gone over this total and getting 4 last 4 at the site you would have gone 2-1-1.
I bet the quarter under 49.5 and took Kings plus 4
These bets last 4 would have gone 5-2-1
Will list some game picks later

You think Beno Udrih from Slovenia?
Anyway great stuff and good luck... :cheers:

 

[tuck321]

GL to you:cheers:

 

[tuck321]

Adding Portland plus 3 and ml for a total of 1 unit. Do not usually bet based on 1 injury. Just think when a rope gets very thin sometimes it snaps, Carmelo has played extremely well vs Portland. Just last 2 games 34 points and 12 rebound and 28 points and 15 rebounds. Denver big men fairly small compared to Portland anyway. Very hard to see Denver a favorite now.
A little more detail here. Portland has lost in bad spots at Utah, the Suns Boston, the Hornets and GS. One of those was a soft loss. Their 8 road wins include Detroit and Orlando. The bet game Denver has played was at Boston. He gave them 13 rebounds and 18 points in that game.
When the Suns lost Nash before the Hornets, you could not put a number on the loss. I think this may be the same.

 

[Playboy]

Hope your hard work pays off tonight. Pulling for you on that 1st qtr under. Good luck tonight.

 

[tuck321]

Thanks. Did play your Orlando first quarter. If I had thought better early would have played GS second quarter instead of first half and won easily instead of losing by 1 point. Bad play gets punished.

 

[HereWeGo]

GL on the Sac 1st Q bet Tuck. Rollin with you but said fuck the points and took the ML @ +250

 

[tuck321]

Sorry it played so bad. There is a point to be learned. Spurs got 0 points by Duncan, 6 points by Parker and 5 points by Ginobli in that quarter. The other 21 points came from young players. Who is Tolliver? The youth movement may have made this team just too hard to figure.

 

[Retburj13]

Sorry it played so bad. There is a point to be learned. Spurs got 0 points by Duncan, 6 points by Parker and 5 points by Ginobli in that quarter. The other 21 points came from young players. Who is Tolliver? The youth movement may have made this team just too hard to figure.

youth is still raw other then Mason...it is sacto after all

took +2.5 at HT....thinkin they lose interst in the 4th

 

[Retburj13]

nice job on Mem tuck...