Usually posting NFL plays, but today I try German Bundesliga.
Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund
Frankfurt is 3rd winning both games after the winter break with 1:0 at St. Pauli (14.) and 4:1 against Freiburg (8.) at home.
Frankfurt played 8 games at home, winning five, drawing two and lost only one, scored 23 goals and conceded 12.
Dortmund is one of the bigger clubs in Germany playing succesful in the Champions League, but having huge problems right now especially when playing on the road.
Dortmund is 10th of the table, losing both games after the break against Leverkusen (2.) at home (2:3) and at Kiel (17.) 2:4. Defense is very shaky due to injury and illness problems. Situation might have improved for tonight, but there is lots of trouble. Dortmund played 8 games on the road, winning only 1, drawing 2 and lost 5 conceding 18 goals while scoring 10, an aedequate comparison would be the Lions losing on the road against the Pats, Titans, Giants, Browns and Raiders.
Normally a far better team, but they can't show it when playing on the road. Also in the German Cup they lost away at Wolfsburg.
Tuesday Dortmund lost at promoted Kiel trailing 3:0 at half time. Coach Sahin is caught into question and many BVB fans want him being sacked. The team travelled to Frankfurt after the game at Kiel to regroup and recover from this shocking and embarrasing loss. Sahin said, you couldn't substitute the whole team, indicating that that would be what he liked.
So with the bad record and performances on the road, the current atmosphere in the club, dissensions between club and supporters and the short week playing two games on the road in four days against an club, who is usually playing strong at home, I can see a home win today with odds between +140 and +155 (three-way) or -118 (draw no bet).
My only concern right now is the situation of Frankfurts best striker Marmoush, who could be traded to Manchester City this weekend, so probably, according to the media, he won't play tonight. Nevertheless I do expect other strikers i.e. Ekitike to fill in as scorer instead of Marmoush.
I have an open parlay to close with Frankfurt home win @110 (played Tuesday evening after the loss) with 0.8u to win 3.6u und bet Frankfurt to win @115 risking 2u to win 2.3. Rising odds maybe due to the Marmoush situation as I had expected the odds to come down to +100. So I will add:
Pending: Parlay Bochum to win / Frankfurt @450 -> 0.8u to win 3.6u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @115 -> 2u to win 2.3u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @145 -> 2u to win 2.9u
Frankfurt to win (two-way, draw no bet) @-120 ->2.4u to win 2u
Game starts 2:30 p.m. ET. Good luck, if anyone is trailing.
