UEFA Predictions for 2020
Betting On A Winner
To pick a winner, we need to rule out the most-favored candidates:
Belgium:
Belgium does flex its generational talent when it scores nine goals against San Marino.
But Belgium’s lack of chemistry does not produce a greater whole than the sum of its talented individual parts when it faces any good opponents — with the most recent examples coming in a 1-0 loss to France in the World Cup and a 3-1 loss to Wales in the last Euro Cup.
The Belgians are held back by Roberto Martinez, who is not a title-winning manager.
After repeatedly getting sacked on the club-level, Martinez somehow lucked his way into the Belgian job.
One flaw that he is famous for is his tactical inflexibility. He wants to stick with what does not work even though it is not working.
France:
It is extremely rare for a team to follow up a World Cup title with a European championship as it’s tempting after winning a title to relax and lose focus.
Only France in 2000 and Spain in 2012 have ever completed the task.
France, also, has been placed in the Group of Death with Germany and Portugal.
Germany has rediscovered success. winning its group in qualifiers. It’s discovered a positive partnership in the midfield between Tony Kroos and Joshua Kimmich.
Julian Brandt, a rare bright spot in 2018, is agile and imaginative going forward. A reliable goall-scorer, Serge Gnabry has produced 13 goals in 13 appearances for Germany.
For Portugal, Ronaldo, always the best man on the pitch, will look to finish strong in what may be his last international tournament.
To bet on France to win it all when it’s very possible that it doesn’t win its group (let alone earn first place) seems misguided to me.
England
England has a significant problem defending. The weakness at the centerback position has been evident in qualifiers against Kosovo, which scored three goals, and against Czech Republic, which beat England 2-1, and in the Nations League in Holland’s 3-1 victory over England.
It is anyone’s guess as to who will form the two pieces of the centerback partnership as no two players are able to separate themselves from an unconvincing group.
Looking at the attack, stronger opponents are able to account for Harry Kane — for example, in England’s final two World Cup matches — against Sweden and Croatia — Kane did not score.
And England is too reliant on Kane, who accrued as many goals in the World Cup as all of his teammates combined.
There’s too little support in putting the ball in the net with one frustrating example being Raheem Sterling who is incessantly a poor finisher on the international stage.
My Pick: The Netherlands
The Netherlands are on the rise, having lost only to England in Ronald Koeman’s managerial debut, France, Portugal, and Germany, which it has beaten twice in the past 12 months.
Holland is solid in the back with Virgil van Dijk, who was the runner-up for the Ballon d’Or, which is extremely rare for a defender to win (the last one having done so in 2006).
Matthijs de Ligt benefits from partnering with van Dijk. Now at Juventus, he distinguishes himself with his physicality and aerial prowess.
In the midfield, Georginio Wijnaldum ably identifies spaces to attack even while the opponent is pressing. He’s energetic and imaginative going forward.
As a passer, he’s always extremely accurate — his pass accuracy is 91% in the Premiere League this season.
So he has the physicality to protect possession by shielding defenders and the agility and creativity to excel in attack.
One attacker to note is Memphis Depay, who scored six goals during Qualifiers, two fewer than Wijnaldum. Depay is always a threat from the left with his pace and in general with his shooting ability.
Favorite Group Bets
England To Win Group D
England’s only real competitor in the group is a Croatian side whose top players are declining. After Mario Mandzukic’s retirement, the attack is experiencing a youth movement.
Croatia’s defense has contributed to the bumpiness of its qualifiers, which included a 2-1 loss to Hungary.
England’s midfielder problem is overstated with Jordan Henderson acclimating himself to an increased attacker role in Liverpool. He brings great passing range.
The English feature a lot of energetic options going forward like the youthful Marcus Rashford and the similarly pacy Raheem Sterling.
Turkey To Win Group A
Favored Italy continues to showcase inconsistency at the striker position with guys like Ciro Immobile and Andrea Belotti incessantly underachieving at the international level with low goal rates extremely inflated by cupcake opponents.
Scoring will anyhow come difficult against a consistent Turkish squad that allowed only three goals and achieved eight clean sheets during qualifiers with a strong backline that measured up to France’s attack both times.
Going forward look for Cenk Gosun, a playmaker with 16 goals in 40 appearances, distinguishing himself with his physicality.
Best Bets: Netherlands To Win Euro Cup +650 with BetOnline
England To Win Group D -250 with BetOnline
Turkey To Win Group A +600 with BetOnline
Betting On A Winner
To pick a winner, we need to rule out the most-favored candidates:
Belgium:
Belgium does flex its generational talent when it scores nine goals against San Marino.
But Belgium’s lack of chemistry does not produce a greater whole than the sum of its talented individual parts when it faces any good opponents — with the most recent examples coming in a 1-0 loss to France in the World Cup and a 3-1 loss to Wales in the last Euro Cup.
The Belgians are held back by Roberto Martinez, who is not a title-winning manager.
After repeatedly getting sacked on the club-level, Martinez somehow lucked his way into the Belgian job.
One flaw that he is famous for is his tactical inflexibility. He wants to stick with what does not work even though it is not working.
France:
It is extremely rare for a team to follow up a World Cup title with a European championship as it’s tempting after winning a title to relax and lose focus.
Only France in 2000 and Spain in 2012 have ever completed the task.
France, also, has been placed in the Group of Death with Germany and Portugal.
Germany has rediscovered success. winning its group in qualifiers. It’s discovered a positive partnership in the midfield between Tony Kroos and Joshua Kimmich.
Julian Brandt, a rare bright spot in 2018, is agile and imaginative going forward. A reliable goall-scorer, Serge Gnabry has produced 13 goals in 13 appearances for Germany.
For Portugal, Ronaldo, always the best man on the pitch, will look to finish strong in what may be his last international tournament.
To bet on France to win it all when it’s very possible that it doesn’t win its group (let alone earn first place) seems misguided to me.
England
England has a significant problem defending. The weakness at the centerback position has been evident in qualifiers against Kosovo, which scored three goals, and against Czech Republic, which beat England 2-1, and in the Nations League in Holland’s 3-1 victory over England.
It is anyone’s guess as to who will form the two pieces of the centerback partnership as no two players are able to separate themselves from an unconvincing group.
Looking at the attack, stronger opponents are able to account for Harry Kane — for example, in England’s final two World Cup matches — against Sweden and Croatia — Kane did not score.
And England is too reliant on Kane, who accrued as many goals in the World Cup as all of his teammates combined.
There’s too little support in putting the ball in the net with one frustrating example being Raheem Sterling who is incessantly a poor finisher on the international stage.
My Pick: The Netherlands
The Netherlands are on the rise, having lost only to England in Ronald Koeman’s managerial debut, France, Portugal, and Germany, which it has beaten twice in the past 12 months.
Holland is solid in the back with Virgil van Dijk, who was the runner-up for the Ballon d’Or, which is extremely rare for a defender to win (the last one having done so in 2006).
Matthijs de Ligt benefits from partnering with van Dijk. Now at Juventus, he distinguishes himself with his physicality and aerial prowess.
In the midfield, Georginio Wijnaldum ably identifies spaces to attack even while the opponent is pressing. He’s energetic and imaginative going forward.
As a passer, he’s always extremely accurate — his pass accuracy is 91% in the Premiere League this season.
So he has the physicality to protect possession by shielding defenders and the agility and creativity to excel in attack.
One attacker to note is Memphis Depay, who scored six goals during Qualifiers, two fewer than Wijnaldum. Depay is always a threat from the left with his pace and in general with his shooting ability.
Favorite Group Bets
England To Win Group D
England’s only real competitor in the group is a Croatian side whose top players are declining. After Mario Mandzukic’s retirement, the attack is experiencing a youth movement.
Croatia’s defense has contributed to the bumpiness of its qualifiers, which included a 2-1 loss to Hungary.
England’s midfielder problem is overstated with Jordan Henderson acclimating himself to an increased attacker role in Liverpool. He brings great passing range.
The English feature a lot of energetic options going forward like the youthful Marcus Rashford and the similarly pacy Raheem Sterling.
Turkey To Win Group A
Favored Italy continues to showcase inconsistency at the striker position with guys like Ciro Immobile and Andrea Belotti incessantly underachieving at the international level with low goal rates extremely inflated by cupcake opponents.
Scoring will anyhow come difficult against a consistent Turkish squad that allowed only three goals and achieved eight clean sheets during qualifiers with a strong backline that measured up to France’s attack both times.
Going forward look for Cenk Gosun, a playmaker with 16 goals in 40 appearances, distinguishing himself with his physicality.
Best Bets: Netherlands To Win Euro Cup +650 with BetOnline
England To Win Group D -250 with BetOnline
Turkey To Win Group A +600 with BetOnline
