Euro 2008 Picks

H.R. Pufnstuf

Pretty much a regular
A little late waiting until today to post my picks for the tourney but here we go...


Friday, June 13

Netherlands -0.5 +186
 
EURO 2008: 1-0 (+1.86u)


Easy victory with the Oranje!

The Saturday games are tough to bet on:

I think Spain will have a very tough game and probably squeak out a victory. Lean a bit to Over 2.5 goals (+120).

Russia under Guus Hiddink are a better team than Greece but the odds on them to win are not as high as I would like (+116). Lean to Russia with the small price and also Over 2.5 goals (+130). Greece's anti-football style makes me not want to bet this game though.

Overall, no official plays. Good luck!
 
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EURO 2008: 1-0 (+1.86)


Sunday, June 15:

Love these games tomorrow. Extremely difficult to sweep side and total in same game but here it goes anyways...


Portugal -0.5 +125
Switzerland/Portugal OVER 2.5 +102


-Both squads know their fate and will play loose as can be. Portugal have too much talent for me not to take a price in this one.


Czech Republic/Turkey DRAW +209
Czech Republic/Turkey OVER 2 -120


-I think there will be nerves on both sides towards the end of the match to "not lose" so I see value in the draw. Remember this bet is only for regulation time as the game could go into s penalty shoot-out. Also, both defenses have been shaky through the first 2 matches. All we need is a goal apiece to avoid a loss with the total.
 
1-3 on the day for -2u. Robbed by Nihat's brillance on that draw. I wanted shoot-outs so bad.


For Monday's games:

Austria - Germany

-Super-sub Bastian Schweinsteiger OUT for Germany, Lukas Podolski and Philip Lahm will play but they're not 100%. Home crowd will be very lively as you saw today with Switzerland. Honestly I expect more of a struggle for the Germans than most. This is probably Austria's biggest game in 30 years as they know there is still a chance for them to go through to the next round. What better way to advance than to beat their rival/neighbor. With all that said, Germany are way too good to not get a win here.


Poland - Croatia

-Poland have not stopped talking about the controversial penalty called against them vs. Austria. Now they must win and hope Germany lose to Austria to have any chance of moving on. They also must do it without captain Maciej Zurawski. Interesting to note that Poland's manager Leo Beenhakker has now gone 9 games in major tournaments (World Cup 1990, World Cup 2006, Euro 2008) without 1 single victory. When you combine all of these things, I expect a hangover for Poland. Croatia will rest plenty of starters but I think the "B-squad" will come in, play laid back and also try to impress to earn a spot in the next round against Turkey. The Croats will wear black armbands in honor of a 19-year-old fan who died before the Germany match. Lean to Croatia -0.5 +204 but not enough conviction for me to bet it.
 
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Both Monday games went exactly how I expected. 1 play for Tuesday:

Italy/France DRAW +275

-Both teams need to win AND have Romania draw or lose to advance. Many times in these cases where both teams NEED a win, they end up drawing. Add to the mix that these teams know each other extremely well and there is a ton of value on this.



Netherlands - Romania

-This is one of the toughest games to predict in the tournament so far for me. I have no idea what kind of desire Netherlands will play with. My guess is that they rest many players but still play well. Gun to my head, I say Romania eeks out a victory here. There's no way I can bet this game.

Good luck to all!
 
Both Monday games went exactly how I expected. 1 play for Tuesday:

Italy/France DRAW +275

-Both teams need to win AND have Romania draw or lose to advance. Many times in these cases where both teams NEED a win, they end up drawing. Add to the mix that these teams know each other extremely well and there is a ton of value on this.



Netherlands - Romania

-This is one of the toughest games to predict in the tournament so far for me. I have no idea what kind of desire Netherlands will play with. My guess is that they rest many players but still play well. Gun to my head, I say Romania eeks out a victory here. There's no way I can bet this game.

Good luck to all!

This is where the live bet option becomes really handy. Come half time both games will want to check on each other's scores to see what are the realistic chances of going on. Italy and France will definitely start out very slow. If that first goal comes within the first 20mins, i see this game becoming very very wild. I expect quite a few yellow cards, no love lost between the 2 teams.
2 scenarios. The Netherlands do what the Danes and Swedes did 4 years ago and purposely get the result that the Italians did not want or the Dutch keep that 100% and the Italians sneak out that victory and some how miraculously end up winning Euro 2008, the same sort of style they won World Cup 2006.

Good Luck!
 
I like France pk at plus money.

Italy's makeshift defense worries me, and I think Ribery can cause them a lot of trouble.

Thuram has not looked good for the French so far, but with Vieira possibly coming back, he may get that extra protection he needs.
 
EURO 2008 Picks: 2-4 (-1.14u)


A bit unlucky with Abidal red card + Ribery injury. French were pisspoor anyways. Onto Wednesday's games:


Spain/Greece OVER 2.5 +115

-Two teams playing for nothing expect pride. I expect an ugly game with a lot of B-squaders scoring cheap goals. Why not try the Over?

Sweden/Russia DRAW +240

-Decisive game for both teams. Swedish superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic is not 100% and I cannot see him playing more than 1 half. Russia gets a boost from star forward Andrei Arshavin. I think Russia will outplay the Swedes for most of the game but their midfield will get worn down towards the end of the game as most of those guys are nursing some aches/pains. Too big of a price to pass up the draw here.

Good luck to all!
 
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EURO 2008: 3-5 (-0.99u)


Thank you Spain for playing hard all the way through. Bad pick by me on the Sweden/Russia DRAW. Should have stuck to my main thought which was Russia outplaying Sweden for most of the game. Ohh well. Now the big games begin...


Germany -0.5 +237

-Simple for me. Very tough game to predict but how can I pass up these odds on the Germans. This is a 50/50 game and Germany are arguably the best team in Europe. Will gladly gamble with this huge price.


Good luck to all!
 
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EURO 2008: 4-5 (+1.38u)


Ridiculously poor defense cost Portugal. Like I said in my writeup, it was worth the gamble on that huge price to take the blue-collar Germans against the dancing Portuguese. OK. Onto Friday's game:


Croatia/Turkey OVER 2.5 +120

-Two poor defenses. I expect a tight game with the Croats breaking out at the end. I expect Croatia to score 2 goals minimum so this is a good bet in my opinion.


Good luck to all!
 
EURO 2008: 3-5 (-0.99u)
Germany -0.5 +237

-Simple for me. Very tough game to predict but how can I pass up these odds on the Germans. This is a 50/50 game and Germany are arguably the best team in Europe. Will gladly gamble with this huge price.


Good luck to all!

Nice pick :cheers:
 
EURO 2008: 4-6 (+0.38u)


Bad pick yesterday. Nuff said.


Saturday, June 21:

Netherlands/Russia OVER 2.5 +100

-Two teams that play going forward the whole time so this shouldn't be a problem to win. No reason that Netherlands should lose this game but I'm not laying -142.


Sunday, June 22:


Spain/Italy DRAW +216

-If there was ever a game to go to penalties, this is surely it. Another 50/50 game. Just like Portugal/Germany, this is form vs history. Spain defense is always shaky and I have a feeling Italy breaks Spain heart here in extra time/penalties.


Good luck to all!
 
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Sunday, June 22:


Spain/Italy DRAW +216

-If there was ever a game to go to penalties, this is surely it. Another 50/50 game. Just like Portugal/Germany, this is form vs history. Spain defense is always shaky and I have a feeling Italy breaks Spain heart here in extra time/penalties.


Good luck to all!

Nice pick with the draw :cheers:
 
Spain were easily the better team but I thought it was a perfect script for Spanish heartbreak. Got the draw but lost both Italy advancing bets so -1.1u in total for the game. Be back next week for semis.
 
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