ESPN Handicappes picks--Week 2

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
When I looked at the lines for the first time this week I didn't see any game I really liked. I see Bear and Stanford Steve had the same reaction. This is the fewest picks I ever remember them making in any week.

The Bear (Week 1, 0-5)
UAB at Akron – Akron (+10)
Tulane at Auburn – Tulane (+18)
Oregon St at Hawaii – Oregon St (+7)
W Michigan at Michigan St – W Michigan (+16.5)

Stanford Steve (Week 1, 2-3, Best Bet 1-0)
UT San Antonio at Baylor – Over (56) Best Bet
San Diego St at UCLA – UCLA (-7)
Syracuse at Maryland – Over (58)

Phil Steele (Week 1, 1-4)

Scott Van Pelt (Week 1, 2-3)
(Got his picks, will get his point spreads tomorrow)
Marshall
Tulane
Central Michigan
N Carolina
Cal
Colorado
Ohio
UConn

Colin Cowherd (Week 1, 1-2)
Texas +6.5
UCLA -8
Texas A & M +17.5

Blazing Five
LA Rams at Carolina – LA Rams (-1.5)
Atlanta at Minnesota – Atlanta (+4)
Indianapolis at LA Chargers – Indianapolis (+6.5)
Pittsburgh at New England – Pittsburgh (+6)
Houston at New Orleans – Houston (+7)

My Picks (Week 1, 4-1) (+4.9 units)
(one unit)
Boise St -12
Army +22x
Kansas St -24 (3x)
Michigan State ML
NFL
Cowboys -7 (2x)
 
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I highly recommend listening to their podcast, but not blindly tailing. They do really know a lot about the game and throw out a ton of stats, but I like to hear them out and then take what they said and apply it to my own handicapping instead of blindly tailing.

Tulane and UCLA are the plays I like a lot that they have been discussing this week
 
D-Woww said:
I highly recommend listening to their podcast, but not blindly tailing. They do really know a lot about the game and throw out a ton of stats, but I like to hear them out and then take what they said and apply it to my own handicapping instead of blindly tailing.

Tulane and UCLA are the plays I like a lot that they have been discussing this week
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just took a listen and best trend i've heard all week - syracuse/maryland. Last 5 years unranked teams favored against a ranked team , the unranked team is like 16-19 or something ridiculous. Vegas is definitely telling us something here. I think maryland may be worth a hard look. Another thing is - liberty is pretty bad. That's like not being able to score against umass if you are syracuse. (umass beat liberty 62-59 last year, and syracuse couldn't move it on them ? and while the orange d could be improved , maybe the hype is because they were facing a bad orange o in scrimmages
 
EL CAPO said:
just took a listen and best trend i've heard all week - syracuse/maryland. Last 5 years unranked teams favored against a ranked team , the unranked team is like 16-19 or something ridiculous. Vegas is definitely telling us something here. I think maryland may be worth a hard look. Another thing is - liberty is pretty bad. That's like not being able to score against umass if you are syracuse. (umass beat liberty 62-59 last year, and syracuse couldn't move it on them ? and while the orange d could be improved , maybe the hype is because they were facing a bad orange o in scrimmages
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i hate that ill have to lay 2 on UMD when it opened at +2 but I think I might just bite the bullet and do it. May parlay UMD and the over...I think its gonna be a fun game; by far the best of the 12pms unless cincy gives osu some trouble
 
Just added the Blazing Five.

I still don't see much that excites me. I want to bet a few, but can't find any worth betting so far.
 
Never did get Phil Steele picks. I got a list purporting to be his picks, but it wasn't what I usually get. but was from some radio show he did where he made picks on about 30 games, but didn't use real point spreads. Instead, for each game, he said something like, "Well, I like Utah, they could win by 30, but more likely by around 20." If his picks show up I'll post them.
 
EL CAPO said:
just took a listen and best trend i've heard all week - syracuse/maryland. Last 5 years unranked teams favored against a ranked team , the unranked team is like 16-19 or something ridiculous. Vegas is definitely telling us something here. I think maryland may be worth a hard look. Another thing is - liberty is pretty bad. That's like not being able to score against umass if you are syracuse. (umass beat liberty 62-59 last year, and syracuse couldn't move it on them ? and while the orange d could be improved , maybe the hype is because they were facing a bad orange o in scrimmages
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I’ve heard a lot of talk from cuse coach and definitely sounds like he thinks defense is the strength of this squad. Pretty curious to me Steve likes that over. It is kinda tough to get behind cuse under cause they go so fast/typically run a lot of plays. But I’m w you, they really struggled to move the ball vs liberty. They did dominate a liberty offense that has hung numbers on lot of solid teams tho. Hence I like the under.
 
In the summer I look ahead for some potential upset spots. I figured Maryland would be dogged and this would offer a statement opportunity for Locks and Co because it really has sounded like the vibe around the Terps is pretty positive with him there. And they have talent. Also figured that people would be talking about Syracuse all off season and game day coming to the Dome for week 3 vs Clemson, this would serve as a look-ahead spot where Terps could surprise. Instead what happened was Mary blew the doors off Howard and people are like "oh hey look there" and Syracuse O looked like shit vs Liberty and "oh hey look here".

Was there a GOY line for this one in the summer? My list doesn't have it.

Who makes Power Ratings? Pointwise (FWIW) moved Maryland up from 37 to 42 after week 1. Syracuse unchanged at 50. Did anyone make adjustments in their numbers?
 
Before the season I liked Syracuse in this spot s--k. They've performed very well the week before Clemson every year Babers has been there and I remember too well what a disaster Locksley was at N Mexico, one of the worst performances of any coach ever. I still lean to them, but I'm passing after their performance against Liberty. I didn't see it so have no idea what happened, but it spooked me.

In Reno this afternoon so put a one-unit bet down on Boise.

Some of the these games I didn't like earlier are starting to look better to me, usually a dangerous sign.
 
Always stupid to bet a game just because it's on TV, as I just proved.

Slight lean to BYU, Purdue, Army and K State, I'll wait till tomorrow, but if I have any discipline I'll pass. The only games I really like are a couple of pro teams so I might play them on Sunday.
 
That number just screams beware of backing cuse doesn’t it? Unless it simply overreacting to week 1? Beats me, my lot is set w the under, I think both teams defenses can win at the LOS and think played in low 20s.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Always stupid to bet a game just because it's on TV, as I just proved.

Slight lean to BYU, Purdue, Army and K State, I'll wait till tomorrow, but if I have any discipline I'll pass. The only games I really like are a couple of pro teams so I might play them on Sunday.
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I didn't watch the game but the box score flatters your bet, regardless of outcome. Again, I didn't see (I was at a Bill Burr Show - which was awesome) the game and sometimes box scores are deceiving but it looks like bad luck in that one.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Always stupid to bet a game just because it's on TV, as I just proved.

Slight lean to BYU, Purdue, Army and K State, I'll wait till tomorrow, but if I have any discipline I'll pass. The only games I really like are a couple of pro teams so I might play them on Sunday.
Click to expand...
same here on both.
My Best Bet this week is Vols BYU Over, i Just really feel a lot of pts scored tonight. Vols are gonna score and prob give up a score via Pick 6 or sack fumble, and BYU will score some points
 
Liked BYU, luvthemcowboys, and came close to taking them. They are 9-2 as a road dog under Sitake and I think they have a coaching advantage over Tennessee, but finally decided against it because I didn't see any reason to risk my money against an unpredictable SEC team at home.

Liked LSU at 3, but that number got away from me so fast I decided to pass. I don't mind laying points with an SEC team against a Big 12 team, but hate to lay them with a road team. 6x is too much for me.

Still looking at Stanford +3 v USC. I like the coaching matchup for Stanford. Like Arkansas v Ole Miss if it goes to 7. I'm tempted on both, but will probably pass.

I just have the feeling I'm better off taking Mich State ML if I can get it and pass on everything else.

I like your Cowboys better than any of the college teams this week so may take them v the NYG
 
You're right, VK, Boise dominated the game. They had 16 first downs in the second half, Marshall had 1. And Harsin had them take a knee three times inside the five at the end even though he has probably the most infamous rep of any coach for refusing to take a knee in the past.

But the reason Marshall covered is they had a bunch of very tough guys on defense and they refused to buckle. On the last drive alone there were at least four runs when it looked like the Boise runner was going to break it, but a Marshall guy would knife in and make a jarring tackle. Boise didn't break a single one on one tackle in that drive and they usually thrive on breaking them.

I've watched Marshall a lot over the years and this is the toughest bunch on D I recall them having.
 
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