ESPN Handicappers Week 8 Picks

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Bear, Steve, and Phil picks in so far. All three picked Temple,

WEEK 8 PICKS

Chris Fallica Last Season 32-34-2) Week 7 (5-3-1) Season (22-19-1) (* Bank Picks on Gameday—Week 7 (1-1-1) Season: 8-11)
Stanford at Arizona St. – Arizona St. (+2.5)
Cincinnati at Temple – Temple (-3)
Tulsa at Arkansas – Tulsa (+7)
California at Oregon St. – Oregon St. (+7)
Ohio St. at Purdue – Purdue (+13.5)
Nevada at Hawaii – Nevada (+3)
Mississippi St. at LSU – Mississippi St. (+6.5)

Stanford Steve Last Season 32-27-1) Week 7 (4-1) Season (25-11) Best Pick, Season record (4-1-2)
Cincinnati at Temple – Temple (-3)
UCF at East Carolina – Over (66)
Auburn at Ole Miss – Auburn (-3.5)
Minnesota at Nebraska – Nebraska (-3.5)
Minnesota at Nebraska – Over (56)

Phil Season Week 7 (4-1) Season (24-12)
Memphis at Missouri – Missouri (-9.5)
North Carolina at Syracuse – North Carolina (+9)
Cincinnati at Temple – Temple (-3)
Auburn at Ole Miss – Auburn (-3)
Michigan at Michigan St. – Michigan (-7)
Oregon at Washington St. – Oregon (+3)
NC State at Clemson – Clemson (-17.5)
Southern California at Utah – Southern California (+6.5)

Scott Van Pelt Week 7 (6-3) Season (29-23-1)
Miami Oh +8
Purdue +13
TCU +8
Miss State +6x
Memphis +9x
Marshall +3
Tulsa +7
Temple -3
Oregon State +7x

Colin Blazing Five Week 5 (2-3) Season (17-12-1)
Panthers +4x
Colts -7x
Ravens -7x
Skins -1x
Giants +5x

My Picks Last Season 50-34-2) Week 7 (5-1) (Season 34-23-2)
Multi-unit picks (7-0) Max Picks (1-0) (+43.5 units)
(Weekly Pro pick—one unit)
New Orleans at Baltimore—Baltimore -2x
(Two units)
USC at Utah—Utah -6
(One Unit each on side and total, one unit on both picks in two=team parlay) Win Win
Georgia St at Arkansas State—Arkansas State -13 Win
Georgia St at Arkansas State—Over 56 Win
(One Unit)
Stanford at Arizona State—Arizona State +2x Lose (Can’t believe Stanford is 126 in rushing. Hope they don’t figure it out tonight)
(Rest of picks Friday)
One unit)
Miss State at LSU—Miss State +6x
Buffalo at Miami Ohio—Buffalo -1
Tulsa at Arkansas—Arkansas -7
(Three units)
Auburn at Ole Miss—Auburn -3
(Lean to Army if I can get 7, may put another unit or two on Buffalo, love those unders on those wind games in the great lakes area, but I’m sticking to my vow to never bet another under the rest of my life.)

Added one pick. Army -6x for two units
 
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SVP picks are in. He's taking a favorite--Temple -3--for the first time this year. That means all four ESPN Handicappers are taking Temple--first time this year all four have a pick in common--every tout I have seen so far, every TV talking head I have see so far, and the public are all heavy on Temple. I'm going to have to take a look at Cincinnati.

Scott Van Pelt Week 7 (6-3) Season (29-23-1)
Miami Oh +8
Purdue +13
TCU +8
Miss State +6x
Memphis +9x
Marshall +3
Tulsa +7
Temple -3
Oregon State +7x
 
Cincy and Temple is tough. They are both good teams. Seems to me that alot of people I hear picking Temple are saying 1) Cincy hasn't been tested and hasn't played anyone and 2) Vegas makes a 4-3 Temple fav over an undefeated 5-0 team - the old somebody knows something and I'm going with the somebodies angle. The line makes sense to me...what should it be?

It is true that Cincy has not faced a tough schedule and again Temple is good, but it isn't like Temple is some juggernaut or a stone wall D. I think the line being Temple -3 just reflects the fact that these teams are pretty even, to me they are, probably a 50-50 game where either team could win 5 out of 10 matches between eachother. Not sure I see many edges for either side. UC's D should be fine in this matchup. I might be a little nervous about the young Ridder against that aggressive Owl D. Two quality teams in their own world and should be a really good game.
 
Cihcinnati does have a large edge on the defensive stats. Not even close. Temple is 92 in rush D, 110 in total D, Cin is 24 in rush D 19 in total D. Din is #3 in scoring D, Temple 39. Temple does better against the pass, but even there Cin is better. If people are right that Temple's schedule is so much tougher that could explain the difference in D stats.

I don't see much difference in the schedules, but I understand why people say Temple's is tougher.

I posted on here a couple of weeks back that Temple has been one of the two best teams for me over the years. I like their toughness and the way they play. I can't even remember the last time I bet Cincinnati.

I can't see a strong enough reason to bet either side here so I'll likely pass.

BAR, the fact Cin off a bye is another consideration I expect Bear didn't look at--road dogs off a bye. During this century teams in that situatio, as Cincinnati is this week, have won at better than a 50% rate--52.4--good for ML purposes, but not high enough to blindly bet them ATS. (The sample is now at more than 500 games so is large enough to be acceptable.)

Good enough to be very careful about going against them however.

But if you break the off-bye-week stats down a little further by size of point spread you have a smaller sample--about 120 games--you find that road dogs off a bye getting 4 points or fewer win at a 60% rate.

Not sure how valuable this is, but something to think about.
 
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Maryland and Boston College are better than anyone Cincy has played and Temple did beat one and covered against the other. After that I would say the schedules are pretty comparable. Vilanova = Mia Oh - Buffalo = Ohio - Tulsa = Tulane - ECU > UConn. Then Temple played Navy which doesn't really compare to anything UC has. UCLA just had no idea what they were doing week 1 and I don't want to give UC any credit for Alabama A&M.
 
(Rest of picks Friday)

(One unit)
Miss State at LSU—Miss State +6x
Buffalo at Miami Ohio—Buffalo -1
Tulsa at Arkansas—Arkansas -7
(Three units)
Auburn at Ole Miss—Auburn -3
(Strong lean to Oklahoma and Michigan, I'll wait for tomorrow, but will likely take at least one, maybe both depending on late line changes, lean to Army if I can get 7, may put another unit or two on Buffalo, love those unders on those wind games in the great lakes area, but I’m sticking to my vow to never bet another under the rest of my life.)

Good luck to all the fine pickers on this board,
 
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Marsski said:
College stats that date to 1994 are pretty fucking worthless in my humble opinion. Not trying to hate on guys who do public picks but this guy has had some real headscratchers this year (U Mass, U Conn etc)...
Click to expand...
Oh, I get it.

I more or less was adding to this to explain some of their picks, perhaps.
 
I can't shake the feeling that Bear makes his picks, then finds stats to back up his choice.

I find the guy entertaining and like to see his picks, but he's more of a character than a handicapper.

And he definitely has a compulsion to bet the worst team he can find. He has at least one bottom 5 team every week.
 
BOL Tahoe - I think the SOS is responsible for the disparity in the non-adjusted defensive stats between Temple and Cin. Temple actually has a better adjusted defensive S&P (15 ranked) vs. Cin (26 ranked). Imo these defenses are pretty comparable, and I give the edge to Cin offensively and certainly with Ridder>Russo in the passing game. Armstead upgraded to probable which helps Temple running game, but if I played I could only take Cin +3.5 as I think the line here should be more in the Pick range.
 
Added one pick. Army -6x for two units

Cincinnati +3x. I see it the same as you do Timh. I lean to Cincy but I'm passing this game. Oklahoma and Michigan lines moved against me so even though I like both teams I'm passing on them.

Maybe something late on the WSU/Oregon game, but otherwise through betting for the week.
 
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