ESPN Handicappers Picks--Week 13

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Picks in for everyone but SVP. No picks in common this week.
WEEK 13 PICKS

Chris Fallica Week 12 (3-3) Season (40-32) 56%
(* Bank Picks on Gameday—Week 12 (2-1) Season: (15-16)
Purdue at Indiana – Indiana (+4) Lose
Florida at Florida St. – Florida St. (+6.5) Lose *
Western Ky. at Louisiana Tech – Louisiana Tech (-10.5) Lose
Maryland at Penn St. – Maryland (+13) Lose
(Bank Picks Only)
Utah St. at Boise St. – Utah St. (+3) Lose*
Arizona State at Arizona--Arizona +2 Win*

Stanford Steve Week 12 (2-2) Season (41-18) 69%
Best Pick, Season record (6-4)
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss – Over (59) Lose
Virginia at Virginia Tech – Virginia (-4) Lose
East Carolina at Cincinnati – Over (50.5) Over
Washington at Washington St. – Washington (+2.5) Win
Oklahoma at West Virginia – Oklahoma (-2.5) Win
Notre Dame at Southern California – Notre Dame (-10.5) Lose
Tennessee at Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt (-3.5) Win

Phil Steele Week 12 (4-3) Season (45-30) 60%
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss – Mississippi St. (-10.5) Win
Houston at Memphis – Memphis (-7) Win
Oklahoma St. at TCU – TCU (+5) Win
BYU at Utah – BYU (+13.5) Win
LSU at Texas A&M--Texas A&M (-2.5) Lose

Scott Van Pelt Week 12 (4-4) Season (51-47) 52%

Colin Blazing Five Week 11 (3-2) Season (32-21) 60%
Chicago at Detroit – Detroit (+3.5)
Seattle at Carolina – Carolina (-3.5)
Cleveland at Cincinnati – Cleveland (+3)
NY Giants at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6)
Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay (+3.5)

My Picks Week 12 (4-6) (Season 65-39) 63%
Multi-unit picks (17-4) Max Picks (1-0) (+62.5 units)
Parlays—Week 12 (0-2) Season (5-5) (+7 units)
(One Unit)
Oklahoma at W Virginia—Oklahoma -1
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss – Mississippi St. (-10.5)
N Dame at USC--Notre Dame -10x
(Two Units)
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss – Mississippi St. (-10.5)
Friday
One unit
Iowa -8
Washington State, -2
Virginia Tech +5
Parlay, Buffalo -14x/Texas-15, one-half unit Lose
Parlay, Okla/W Virg o 84/Okla St/TCU u 56x, one-half unit
Parlay, Okla/W Virg o 84, BC/Syracuse o 57 added as second half open one-half unit Win
Parlay, Ariz St/Az o 66 Clemson/S Carolina o 57 as second half open one-half unit
Parlay Utah State +2x, Oklahoma State -5 one-half unit
(One Unit)
Alabama -24
Georgia Tech +17
Ohio State +4x
Oklahoma State -5
(Two units)
Kentucky -16x
(Two Units)
Kentucky -17
One unit
N Dame -11
Utah State +2x
Nevada/UNLV o 61
Adding Clemson/S Carolina as second team to open parlay
 
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I’m leery about this week, VK. I went through my analysis and I came up with these teams: Oklahoma, Miss State, Bama -24, Michigan -4, Buffalo -14, Texas -15, Kentucky -17, Notre Dame -10x, BC -7, N C State -7, Iowa -7x, and a slight lean to Washington.

One glance and you see I was giving points on the road—a touchdown or more in all but one—in almost every game, just the opposite of what I want to do, and didn’t have a single home dog, which is what I aim for.

I had the best D, my #1 criterion, in all but Oklahoma (and Miss State has the biggest disparity on D of any game this weekend), but I’m not going to win money with that many road favorites, so I’m in the process of redoing my picks.

Dropped Iowa (I love them as dogs, avoid them as favorites) and Washington (they lost three games ATS because of bad kicker and punter). Wash St is just as good on defense and all the intangibles, and I expect all the sharps and touts to go with Washington, so I’ll take WSU if I get a good number.

I can’t find any information on whether BC QB is a go (dozens of stories about the Cuse QB, nothing about BC). If Brown goes I’ll take BC, otherwise I’ll drop that one too.

Bottom line, I already bet OU, Miss State and N Dame and strong lean to Bama. I’m looking for more so I’ll check all yours and the other capper’s picks and the ESPN cappers and maybe steal one of those.

Lean to over in the OU/WV game. Perfect football weather for the game so I may take that one.
 
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I’ll take Chris’ slate. Woof Woof
GL with yours. I guess I can be swayed into MSU.
Don’t share interest in OU. Don’t do well in that conference.
If desperate for action, I might go Over.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I’m leery about this week, VK. I went through my analysis and I came up with these teams: Oklahoma, Miss State, Bama -24, Michigan -4, Buffalo -14, Texas -15, Kentucky -17, Notre Dame -10x, BC -7, N C State -7, Iowa -7x, and a slight lean to Washington.

One glance and you see I was giving points on the road—a touchdown or more in all but one—in almost every game, just the opposite of what I want to do, and didn’t have a single home dog, which is what I aim for.

I had the best D, my #1 criterion, in all but Oklahoma (and Miss State has the biggest disparity on D of any game this weekend), but I’m not going to win money with that many road favorites, so I’m in the process of redoing my picks.

Dropped Iowa (I love them as dogs, avoid them as favorites) and Washington (they lost three games ATS because of bad kicker and punter). Wash St is just as good on defense and all the intangibles, and I expect all the sharps and touts to go with Washington, so I’ll take WSU if I get a good number.

I can’t find any information on whether BC QB is a go (dozens of stories about the Cuse QB, nothing about BC). If Brown goes I’ll take BC, otherwise I’ll drop that one too.

Bottom line, I have OU, Miss State and N Dame and strong lean to Bama. I’m looking for more so I’ll check all yours and the other capper’s picks and the ESPN cappers and maybe steal one of those.

Lean to over in the OU/WV game. Perfect football weather for the game so I may take that one.
Click to expand...
I think there could be not so good conditions for the iowa game
 
Since this is a thread about the ESPN handicappers, I did see this write up at ESPN.com from Coughlin.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick from ESPN. He is 69% on his picks. Thought the final score was interesting. Under and Ohio State winning outright. Weather does look to be rainy early, around 50.

i
i


No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-5) at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (O/U 56)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET

Coughlin: This just feels like it will be ugly on the offensive side for both teams, and that's for a couple of reasons. First, the weather will be a factor, as it's supposed to rain, so the Buckeyes' passing attack will be challenged by the elements as well as the GATA style that Michigan's defense plays with. Second, you know Ohio State will have a plan to clog up the Wolverines offense. Throw in the relentlessness of the crowd noise in The Horseshoe, and I see Michigan QB Shea Patterson having a frustrating day. I'll say there will not be a lot of points scored. I'll take the under.

ATS pick: Under 56
Score: Ohio State 21, Michigan 20
 
You're right about the Iowa weather, VK. Winds 14 to 20, rain, temp in the 40s (warm for Iowa and Neb.)

Lawrence Kansas wind 10-20, weather mid 40s, chance of rain.

Columbia Mo, wind 10-20, 100% chance of rain, temp at 40.

At Washington State, rain, wind 10-15, windchill 31

West Virginia, dry, temp 31-33, negligible wind, good football weather

Leaning to Florida -6x, Utah State +3 (I love that kicker) and Virginia Tech +5. BC dropped to -6x, still no word on whether Brown will go at QB. Guess I'll have to wait till gametime unless they mention it on Gameday.
 
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Thanks BAR.

I feel like any self-respecting handicapper should have a bet on a game as big as Michigan/Ohio State, but I can't see anything. How do you see it?
 
Georgia thrashing of G Tech told me to add:
Kentucky -16x one unit
additional unit
N Dame -11
Adding Clemson/S Carolina as second team to open parlay
 
Damn good capping buddy-got screwed myself with terrible play calling in the ND game-they should have covered and won that game so easily...another coach playing not to lose. That's how you end up on the unemployment line, definitely not going to win a National title against guys like Sweeney and Saban. Grow a sack and go for TDs not FGs, that's how you take down the big boys........maybe they'll figure it out by next year or he'll be an Assistant coach again real soon for somebody that's not afraid to take some shots in the end zone instead of running it up the middle on 3rd and short!! Damn kid.....get with it-even Andy Reid has finally realized you need to outscore the other team to actually win the game.
 
Not sure if your talking about Kelly and Notre Dame. Kelly hasn’t been an assistant coach for like 25 years.

ND got off to a slow start but reeled off 24 straight points after figuring out how to beat the USC blitzes before the back door td with less than a minute left.

What was terrible about the play calling? Your example of running into the line on third down and settling for fgs never happened. They kicked one 46 yard fg and the first and third down plays before the kick were passes.

And lastly you said they need to grow a sack and go for tds. They did that in the fourth quarter with mixed results. Book threw a terrible interception in the end zone with 8 minutes left in the game when they had an easy fg attempt to go up 10. But with 3 minutes left they stayed aggressive and threw a td pass to essentially put the game away except for us gamblers. I had them too and lost. They shoulda covered but it wasn’t the play calling and lack of aggressive play calling.
 
The USC cover against N Dame was a killer and was strictly due to N Dame playing soft and not caring if they gave up a TD as long as it took a lot of time off the clock.

But that kind of back door cover happens and doesn't hurt me nearly as bad as the way Boise covered. They were up by 2, which gave me a win with 2x, and got an 80-yard run down to the Utah State 10 with 2 minutes left. They could have taken a knee and won, but went all out to score, including calling TO with two seconds leftm then running a play from the one to score as the gun went off.

Most of the breaks evened out for me this year, but that Boise game made a run of 0-8 this year where I lost by a team either taking a knee when I needed a score or trying to score when they already had the game won and I needed them to take a knee. Maybe that will even out next year or some year down the road, but no way it does this year.
 
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Texans tonight? McNair died.

Seattle did win the game at Detroit after their own died.

What was that record for that?
 
Found it. Teams were 9-0 after the owner dies up to the time Paul Allen died.

Not sure it applies to Houston this week because while his death was announced I don't think they had the funeral yet, and all the previous wins were the week after the public funeral for the owner.

I guess the theory is the players all attend and realize the guy who signed all their millions of dollars in checks and treated them so well is gone and the coaching staff has all week to give the "win one for The Gipper" speech and use it to motivate the p;layers.
 
Oh ok. I didn't realize the funeral aspect. That explains applying the angle for Sea vs LAC (L) and not Det (W). At any rate Hou is playing well.

Hey I was looking over some ats logs, this year might be an exception where some losing teams (below.500) were good ATS (above .500). I think I counted at least 12 notably Rice, Rutgers, SanJose, Kent, Kansas, Charlotte, and then some 5-7 teams.
 
I may be off a little on whether the funeral had occurred in all those previous games, but they all had time to digest the death and have meeting with the GM and coaches and reflect on the death.

As for the bad team theory I am going to go over them sometime in the next few weeks. I would not classify Kansas as a bad team. A losing record alone does not mean a team is bad and I was impressed with the improvement in Kansas this week.

Teams like UConn are the benchmark for bad teams.

We'll see how thing turned out this year. I know betting bad teams caused Bear to have the worst record of the ESPN pickers. He was 1-12 on them.
 
JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson just told the announcer all they wanted tonight was to win this game for Bob McNair.

I should have thought of this earlier and gotten down on them.
 
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