ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 12

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Early picks for bear and Steve. The first on for each is a pick, the others they discusses leans. Bear leaned to Indiana, Steve to Ohio State

The Bear—Week 12 (0-0) Season (16-15)
Tulane (+6.5)
Miss St/Georgia Under (44.5)
Liberty/NC St Over (66.5)
UCF (+6)
Fresno St (+2.5)
Bear’s Bank Picks—Week 12 (0-0) Season (13-16)

Stanford Steve— 12 (0-0) Season (24-15) Best Bet (5-4)
Clemson (-35)
Arkansas (+2)
Texas (-29.5)
Rutgers (+10.5)
Utah (+3)
Washington_St (+2)
Boise St (-14)
Best Bet
Florida/Vandy over 68

Bill Trocci— Week 12 (0-0) Season (27-21)
Indiana +20.5
Wisconsin -7.5
Iowa State -11
Auburn -10
Oklahoma State +7

Phil Steele-- Week 12 (0-0) Season (16-29)
Pittsburgh+3.5 vs Virginia Tech
Boise State-14 vs Hawaii
Michigan-10.5 vs Rutgers
UTSA-8.5 vs Southern Miss
Oregon State+3.5 vs California
BYU-47.5 vs North Alabama
Pro
Bengals+1.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 12 (0-0) Season (27-24)
UCLA +13.5
Tennessee +11
UCF +6
Hawaii +14
Penn St +2.5
Pro
Denver +3

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 12 (1-1) Season (10-8)
Ohio St/Indiana O 66.5 Win
Cincinnati (-5.5) Lose
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 12 (2-0) Season (9-8)
Alabama (-30) Win
Oklahoma (-7) Win

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 11 (0-0) Season (25-24)
ATL +4.5 vs. NO
PHI +3.5 vs. CLE
IND -2.5 vs. GB
KC -8.5 vs. LV
TB -4.5 vs. LAR

My Picks— Week 12 (0-0) Season (30-21)
Cincinnati -4x
Oklahoma -7
Coastal Carolina -4x
PItt +3x
Pro
KC -8
Strong lean Arkansas, Pitt, Florida over, S J State, slight lean Ohio State. The Tulsa/Tulane game interests me and I’d like to bet it, but can’t figure it. Same with Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma ML
 
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Im having a tougher time w tulsa/Tulane as well. I do love coastal Carolina vs app st tho. I have a whole list of reasons but have to wait till morning cause I’m wiped out. Like cincy as well and several your leans.
 
The Steve and bear podcast was really good this week, they talked about a lot of games where they wernt picking them but gave lots of useful stuff especially the last 30 min or so but whole thing good if anyone hasn’t gave it a listen.

the way Steve talks bout trees makes me continue to believe I’m on right track with their overs. You could tell he had no clue why trees favs cause he expects wazzu qb to light them up which I agree he should. I think trees gonna continue scoring more and more as they go. Problem is the amount of plays both teams gomna run could be slightly low for this high a total (64.5), not a killer cause I expect some big plays, problem is you just gotta have great red zone efficiency to cash it imo. That what I need to look at. See how successful I think both teams will be in red zone (good news while we don’t wanna see him much trees kicker can apparently make some kicks). I just think over might be better than fading trees.
 
I lean Tulane but think I saw 5.5 now and don’t love it cause I like Tulsa, just not sure bout them laying that number. I’m just gonna watch.

Think we all disagree w bear and ucf, lol. Might not be bad for him although that game sure feels kinda like the byu:boise game did where cincy looks to make statement here. If you like ucf over might be better? I feel like cincy gonna get into the 30s. I did see some chance for rain so then wouldn’t know.
 
I’m not sold on the over w liberty this week, I mean there for sure gonna be points but I think they came w good total there. I could easily see something like 34-31 and it just sneaking under. Gotta figure liberty will do same thing they did against vatech and attempt to take some possessions away playing slower tempo at times. Yes it got there for us but ncst don’t have a player as explosive as hooker!! I think they will grind out yards with their solid 2 backs, I think their guy who replaced Leary is improving although I still don’t love him. I know I loved the liberty/tech over and we got there it was nerve racking and liberty was the better play, I think that is again the case, it might get over (although if you made me bet it id prob grit my teeth and say under) but I think liberty the right side here, they on a collision course with coastal Carolina imo.
 
I'm passing on the Tulsa/Tulane game. Tulsa is -6 now and I wouldn't lay 6 with Tulsa against anyone. I won on them last week, but that was laying 2x. Tulsa is too unreliable on offense and in the kicking game for me to give 6

Arkansas is now a dog and I would have already bet them, but a lot of covid rumors swirling around Fayetteville. I'll wait till The Hogs make an announcement before I pull the trigger, but I'm taking them if they have all their guys
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm passing on the Tulsa/Tulane game. Tulsa is -6 now and I wouldn't lay 6 with Tulsa against anyone. I won on them last week, but that was laying 2x. Tulsa is too unreliable on offense and in the kicking game for me to give 6

Arkansas is now a dog and I would have already bet them, but a lot of covid rumors swirling around Fayetteville. I'll wait till The Hogs make an announcement before I pull the trigger, but I'm taking them if they have all their guys
Click to expand...

yea I heard Franks may be part of it as well.
 
He's not an ESPN guy but every Thursday morning Paul Stone is on VSIN. Guy knows his shit when it comes to college. Of course me posting his plays here may be the curse. Anyway, this morning his plays were:

Cin/UCF Under 63.5
K St +10.5 vs Ioawa St (He said since 2011, as a dog K St is hitting 75% ATS. As a fave they are junk though)
Coastal Car. -5 vs App St. (Said he likes them even up to a TD in this one but I was able to get -4.5)
 
I love coastal as well, think they may favorite side of weekend and I agree with anything less than 7 being good on them.
 
Zeke said:
Paul Stone is on VSIN. Guy knows his shit when it comes to college.
Click to expand...
I agree. Stone is a solid handicapper.

He's right about K State as a dog. They have been money for years in that role, but they didn't compile that record with a true freshman at QB. I may be too cautious in this case because they covered against Ok State with the freshman, although he did make the blunder that cost them a SU win
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I agree. Stone is a solid handicapper.

He's right about K State as a dog. They have been money for years in that role, but they didn't compile that record with a true freshman at QB. I may be too cautious in this case because they covered against Ok State with the freshman, although he did make the blunder that cost them a SU win though
Click to expand...

I think that game is a sneaky over in the making. I know k-st offense with their starter wasnt great and been worse w Howard but maybe they found something last week with him running around? Plus k-st finds ways to score with special teams plays or maybe turning Purdy over. Plus k-st offense gets a little relief as they have just got done playing what I think easily the best 2 defenses in the conf. I suppose I have no argument against playing them cause that a lot of points but I was looking more at that total as I think this a game played in the mid to upper 20s. Total keeps going down so I’ve waited but anything under 47 I think a nice play on over, k-st does make sense too, I don’t agree but I think it was bear calling for for isu to make some huge statement in this one, not sure I see that.
 
2daBank said:
I think a nice play on over, k-st does make sense too, I don’t agree but I think it was bear calling for for isu to make some huge statement in this one, not sure I see that.
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Don't see it, especially with ISU having a big look-ahead to Texas next weekend in Austin.

This game smells like a close one all around.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Don't see it, especially with ISU having a big look-ahead to Texas next weekend in Austin.

This game smells like a close one all around.
Click to expand...

I agree. That why I like the over cause I think they both make it into the low 20s with someone needing 27 to win. My case for over is actually just as good a case for k-st since I’m depending on them being in the low to mid 20s for me to cash over.
 
lb49ers said:
SVP Selections

UCLA +13.5
Tennessee +11
UCF +6
Hawaii +14
Penn St +2.5

Pro
Denver +3
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His segment was pretty funny. His record picking against iowa is 1-7! Cincy beats him every week, lol. He prob on to something in Denver cause I like fish with rest of world. Those rarely work out.
 
Added Coastal Carolina -4x

Really liked San Jose State this week but that game is cancelled. Like Arkansas, but lots or covid rumors, still haven't been able to find out which players are involved. Liked Washington State, but their QB tested positive and is out. They'll start one of two freshmen, neither with experience
 
Added Pitt +3x

Added KC -8

Don't bet NFL much and don't bet much when I do, but posting KC -8 here because I'm betting as much as I bet on college games. Don't even know how to handicap NFL games, betting this one strictly on revenge and on the lap around the stadium by the Raiders after they won in KC. The Chiefs intend to run it up if they can
 
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Dying to lay the points with Ohio State this week. I think the Buckeyes are going to roll over Indiana.

But I can't even remember the last time I laid 20 points so my mind keeps telling me to hold off and think some more

Anyone have thoughts on this game?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Dying to lay the points with Ohio State this week. I think the Buckeyes are going to roll over Indiana.

But I can't even remember the last time I laid 20 points so my mind keeps telling me to hold off and think some more

Anyone have thoughts on this game?
Click to expand...
Maybe split between Ohio st and over? If Ohio st can’t cover, chances of it going over is much higher......or the Ohio st TT over?
 
Thought about that, but the reason I like Ohio State at the current number is I doubt Indiana can move the ball on them. They have one of the worst running attacks in the country. As bad as any team in the country. Only four teams playing this year have a lower YPC. Only 8 teams have a lower yards per game.

I don't see how they can move the ball if Ohio State doesn't even have to worry about the run

Indiana has played the best football I've ever seen them;play in my life and I may be underestimating them.

I think Ohio State will boat race them, but I have enough questions about the Ohio State D that I know it's not a sure thing.

I'll probably wait until I see the game announcers tomorrow and see if there's any late gametime news that makes up my mind. Get a look at the weather too
 
Some additional picks from Daily Wager:

Bear
Oklahoma
Iowa State (did not make either game an official pick, but they asked him how he saw Okla/Okla St and he said, "until Oklahoma State shows they can beat Oklahoma then the only way to go is Oklahoma. Very high on Iowa State said, "they are worth a big bet and If I bet them the game it will be a big one"

Beard Guy
Wisconsin (only at -7 or less)
Oklahoma under Best Bet
UCF (dog of the week which to them means a ML bet)

Doug
Oklahoma Best Bet
Arizona Wildcats (Dog of the week)

Guy at Desk (sits at the desk with Doug, in the times I've watched I've never seen him win a bet)
Okla/Okla St under
Cinn/UCF over Best Bet
Liberty (Dog of the week)
 
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Interesting info on Ohio State/Indiana:

Indiana is the most popular public dog of the year and maybe ever.

Just short of 80% of the bets AND the money on Indiana
 
Added Oklahoma ML. I can get -6x now, but there is going to be some rain and moderate wind, could be lightening delay and I like the ML risk better
 
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