ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 12

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Baylor is the only pick bear and Steve have in common.

The Bear—Week 11 (3-1) Season (22-27-1)
Bank Picks—Week 11 (2-1) Season (19-13-1)
Week 12 (0-0)
Buffalo at Kent – Kent (+6)
Oklahoma at Baylor – Baylor (+10.5)
USC at California – California (+6)
Florida at Missouri – Missouri (+7)
Kentucky at Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt (+10)
Bank Picks:
Tulane
Missouri
S Florida

Stanford Steve— Week 11 (4-4) Season (28-26-1), Best Bet (3-6)
Week 12 (0-0)
Louisiana Tech at Marshall – Marshall (-2.5)
Oklahoma at Baylor – Baylor (+10.5)
Kansas at Oklahoma St – Over (65.5)
Louisville at NC State – Louisville (-4)
Massachusetts at Northwestern – Over (56.5)
Tulane at Temple – Temple (+5)

Scott Van Pelt— Week 11 (3-6) Season (40-45)
Week 12 (0-0)

Colin Cowherd Marquee 3-- Week 11 (0-3) Season (9-20-1)
Week 12 (0-0)
Michigan state +13.5
Iowa -3
Georgia -2.5

Blazing Five—Week 10 (2-3) Season (26-23-1)
Week 11 (0-0)
Texans
Broncos
Jets
Cardinals
Chargers

Max Meyer— Week 11 (no picks) Season (24-14) Parlays (1-0)
Week 12 (0-0)
Navy +7.5
Cal +6.5
Missouri +7
Ole Miss +21.5

RJ Bell—Best Bet of the Week— Week 10 (no picks) Season (12-5-1)
Week 11 (0-0)

My Picks—Week 11 (5-2) Season (30-27) (+13.7 units)
Multi-Unit bets (4-3), Max Bets (1-0) Parlays (2-3)
Week 12 (0-0)
Michigan -13x
Michigan -13 x2
Baylor +10x
Ole Miss +21x
Georgia -2x x3
Cal +6x
Lean to Wyoming, Texas, Clemson over, aTm, and will probably add units to several of the above once I’m sure of the weather and injuries
 
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I don't think SVP made his picks last night because most of Sports Center was devoted to the news an NFL player has a problem with impulse control. Wow, what a surprise that is

I suspect he will do them tonight
 
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I find myself watching this "Daily Wager" show on ESPN. Anyhow, they have a best bets segment and they show their previous days picks and how they did. It just dawned on me that money can be made fading these guys. For the past week, combined they have NOT had a winning day. Their monthly total is around 40%. We should start a fade a friend based on this show.
 
There are always article professing to reveal what the “sharps” are betting. I ignore them because, 1. No way to tell if the guy really knows where the sharp money is going and, 2. Over years of observing who the sharps bet—at least who the articles say the bet—I’ve never seen that they do any better than the public.

Here is another guy who claims to be in Vegas talking to the books and getting inside info on where the sharp money is going. Reason I haven’t posted him before is the sharp picks have been below .500 all year and are 6-14 for the season.

Here’s his article this week:

What Sharps Are Betting Season (6-14)
Tulane -5.5
Syracuse +10
Baylor +10.5
Minnesota +3
Navy +7
 
I think he quit doing his picks in print. Maybe they're in ESPN+, but I can't find them. He was having a very bad year when the quit appearing

If anyone sees them maybe they can post them here
 
TahoeLegend said:
I think he quit doing his picks in print. Maybe they're in ESPN+, but I can't find them. He was having a very bad year when the quit appearing

If anyone sees them maybe they can post them here
Click to expand...

I looked around and can't find anything recent.

It's funny these days you know. There are so many podcasts and blogs and radio shows that somebody like Phil Steele could just move from platform to platform and be introduced like "we have a new guest this week" and he sticks around on that platform for a while and then moves on to another never maintaining a record of how he is picking.

I do have a soft spot for Phil, I guess I just like him a little, but even very early on in my wagering career I knew when my opinion disagreed with his to stick with my opinion. Ask me how I know. Phil's problem I thought was always adjusting to how the teams are currently performing and who they are versus who he projected teams to be in his magazine.
 
I know he does them live on KNBR in San Francisco.

I see him as a guy who's not trying to prove he can do it, He's a guy who worked hard to come up with a good computer program and let the computer do the picks better than the human can do.

I don't think it can be done, but the world is full of chess players who said a computer could never beat the world champion and we know how that came out

I'm influenced by him too. You can't help but be. He is smart enough to assemble as much information as the normal betting guy needs, all in one place, and sell it for a nice profit. You read that magazine year after year and you see how much it helps over the long term.
 
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Perfect weather for Michigan/Michigan State, 17 wind chill, cloudy, a little wind. Added x2 to Michigan -13

Added x3 to Georgia -2x
 
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Im really interested in Vtech too. Nothing be fun about that game but end of day think they playing well enough to win that by 7-10.
 
Thanks, made the change. He's having a good week. Won for the first time on his college picks and is 3-1 on his NFL picks.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Good call on V Tech, 2daBank.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I’d be lying if i said I thought it be that easy!! Lol. Nice job by you as always pal.,really enjoy this thread.

Feel like I have been really on point w Pitt and Hokies this year so think I should absolutely be able to find the winner in that game!! My initial thought was to keep riding Hokies as their season really turned around in that 6ot unc gm imo. I have some looking to do before I pull trigger tho,, I really like panthers front 7.
 
Both those teams have gotten better as the season has gone on. I have the same feeling you do, that I should be able to find a winner in that game. Can't do it so far though.
 
Far as acc goes for a game not involving Clemson this one pretty big right? After all someone has to get demolished in the championship game! Someone gonna end up in a big bowl too!!
 
Looks like if I did like Hokies I kinda shit the bed not jumping already but glad i waited cause not sure I agree w my initial lean.

Hokies rushing attack been huge in their resurgence and I don’t think they will have a lot of success on the ground vs Pitt?? What I would worry about w panthers is while they both been good defensively in red zone Hokies slightly better and Hokies offense has a much stringer conversion rate and the more accurate kicker,

I dunno, maybe knowing both these teams so well isn’t gonna lead to a easy play in this game? Lol
 
2daBank said:
Far as acc goes for a game not involving Clemson this one pretty big right? After all someone has to get demolished in the championship game! Someone gonna end up in a big bowl too!!
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's must-see TV for me. Will have an eye on TAMU-UGA and whatever I may have action on, but should be good football. My nicest memory of watching a game that I didn't have action on this year was Duke-Pitt. You can see a lot of good games in the Coastal.
 
M.W. said:
Yeah, it's must-see TV for me. Will have an eye on TAMU-UGA and whatever I may have action on, but should be good football. My nicest memory of watching a game that I didn't have action on this year was Duke-Pitt. You can see a lot of good games in the Coastal.
Click to expand...

I’m so glad I bet Pitt in that game, I mean I lost years off my life but I would have never watched that insane second half had I not bet it!!! That was one the craziest games of the year hardly anyone saw! Lol

More i look the more I feel like if I can get panthers +4 or better I think that where I could end up on this one, not sure enough separates these teams to think laying more than a fg a good idea and it seems Hokies recent success is kinda driving ppl to push this line. The red zone worries me but I do feel like I see enough things that leads me to believe Pitt will get more scoring chances, hopefully enough to offset their struggles in that area.
 
Pretty intriguing game for sure. Last home game for Bud Foster. Pitt hung 52 on them last year. Revenge factor? The more I look at this game, the more I want to pass on it.
 
CPA-hole said:
Pretty intriguing game for sure. Last home game for Bud Foster. Pitt hung 52 on them last year. Revenge factor? The more I look at this game, the more I want to pass on it.
Click to expand...

Kinda feel same way but at same time really want to bet it and be right, lol. There def a pretty strong case to be made for both which usually means pass, sometimes my ego gets in way of doing right thing.
 
Is VT kicker better, 2daBank? The kicker is big in a game like this where two team are equal.

I bet Pitt a time or two this season based on their D, but don't know enough about either team to be able to judge the kickers
 
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