ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 11

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Steve and Bear both taking under in the LSU/Bama game although neither took a side, and both on Baylor (so am I). Bear, SVP, and Colin all took a nosedive last week. Max Meyer is doing far better than any college picker and RJ Bell is doing the best job on the NFL

The Bear—Week 10 (1-5) Season (19-26-1)
Bank Picks—Week 10 (1-2) Season (17-12-1)
Week 11 (0-0)
LSU at Alabama – Under (65)
Baylor at TCU – Baylor (-2)
Washington St at California – California (+7.5)
UAB at Southern Miss – Southern Miss (-4.5)
Bank Picks:

Stanford Steve— Week 10 (3-2) Season (24-22-1), Best Bet (3-5)
Week 11 (0-0)
LSU at Alabama – Under (65)
Massachusetts at Army – Army (-34.5)
Baylor at TCU – Baylor (-2)
Iowa at Wisconsin – Wisconsin (-9.5)
Tennessee at Kentucky – Kentucky (0) Best Bet
Louisville at Miami FL – Louisville (+6.5)
Penn St at Minnesota – Minnesota (+7.5)
Clemson at NC State – Over (53.5)

Scott Van Pelt— Week 10 (1-6) Season (37-39)
Week 11 (0-0)
Baylor at TCU – TCU (+2.5)
Connecticut at Cincinnati – Connecticut (+35)
Notre Dame at Duke – Duke (+8)
Missouri at Georgia – Missouri (+16.5)
Iowa at Wisconsin – Wisconsin (-9.5)
Tennessee at Kentucky – Kentucky (-1)
Penn St at Minnesota – Minnesota (+6.5)
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech (+2)
Iowa St at Oklahoma – Iowa St (+14.5)

Colin Cowherd Marquee 3-- Week 10 (0-3) Season (9-17-1)
Week 11 (0-0)
PSU -7
Texas -7
Bama -6.5

Blazing Five—Week 9 (1-4) Season (24-20-1)
Week 10 (0-0)
NE -3 lose
Packers -3.5 lose
Clev -3.5 lose
Oak -2.5 win
Indy -1.5 lose

Max Meyer— Week 10 (2-2) Season (24-14) Parlays (1-0)
Week 11 (0-0)
Miami Fla +3 win
Oregon State +5.5 win
Colorado at UCLA: over 64 lose
Kansas +6 lose

RJ Bell—Best Bet of the Week— Week 9 (2-0) Season (12-5-1)
Week 10 (0-0)
NY Jets at Miami – Miami (+3) win
Tennessee at Carolina – Carolina (-3x) win

My Picks—Week 10 (2-4) Season (25-25) (+7 units)
Multi-Unit bets (3-3), Max Bets (1-0) Parlays (1-3)
Week 11 (0-0)
La Tech -4x x3
BC -2x
Baylor -2x
Kansas State +7
Louisville +7
Clemson/NC St o 53x
Lean to some late games, Iowa State (not sure why I keep risking good money on my assessment of the Big 12 when I’ve been off on it all year), Virginia, N Dame.
 
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Almost every win and loss I've had this year has been decided by a lucky or unlucky break, Sometimes a fluke,

I won a bet on SMU by 1/2 when Dykes went for two for no logical reason with a minute left and made it. Won an over bet on UCF/Houston by 1 when UCF got a safety with 40 seconds left. Lost Florida by 1/2 when Smart went for two when most coaches wouldn't have.

Last week I won one when my team got a FG blocked with only seconds left, but the blocking team picked it up and tried to run with it--looked to me like the guy was trying a lateral-- fumbled, and my team picked it up for a TD.

It's entertaining, but it's doesn't have much in common with handicapping.
 
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Thanks for the info, Twinkie, I see Joey and Jesse make picks, but sometimes the announcer says, "we're showing the spread, but these picks are not using the spread." Other times they use the spread, but I can't figure out if there is an exact time when they make their Virtual Lock picks.

Last week they made half a dozen SU picks, but only a few picks ATS.

If you see the segment when they make their Virtual Lock picks please post if you have time.
 
I, too, got burned by the Smart two pointer. But I think it was the smart call. I can’t think of any scenario where 1 point was of any use to UGA.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Thanks for the info, Twinkie, I see Joey and Jesse make picks, but sometimes the announcer says, "we're showing the spread, but these picks are not using the spread." Other times they use the spread, but I can't figure out if there is an exact time when they make their Virtual Lock picks.

Last week they made half a dozen SU picks, but only a few picks ATS.

If you see the segment when they make their Virtual Lock picks please post if you have time.
Click to expand...
You could be correct. Like the thread
 
Galloway acted like the WSt/Cal Ov was free money. Would seem harder than that to me but he's the hot picker.
 
The Daily wager show was on before Tulsa. Bear was on, I thought he said bank pick was Minny+6.5 but don't quote me.
 
Agree with you on the WSU/Cal over, s--k. Galloway said it was his best bet of the year, but I don't see it. Cal can't score and they have the longest streak in FBS of holding teams to 24 points or less.

Added Steve's Best Bet

Didn't get RJ Bell's picks yet.
 
Added my picks
La Tech -4x x3
BC -2x
Baylor -2x
Kansas State +7
Louisville +7
Clemson/NC St o 53x
Lean to some late games, Iowa State (not sure why I keep risking good money on my assessment of the Big 12 when I’ve been off on it all year), Virginia, N Dame.
Hate to pass on the biggest game of the year, but I just don’t see a bet there. I may bet it in a parlay. I made a vow never to bet against Bama again, but I always take the points in big SEC games. Plus, I don't know if Tua will last the game.
 
I love Baylor and ville as well this week. Don’t really understand the ville move up to 7 but whatever. I thought might be qb related but didn’t see him on injury report?
 
My feeling on bama is they money if Tua 85% or better but who freaking knows? Think I might just wait and see if he moving well and if so hope I can still find decent live number., I really think bama defense being undersold here, they seem to be getting better each week as you would expect w a young saban d. LSU offense is great and all but their qb not a athletic freak, I expect saban to scheme and slow them, not stop. 24-28 imo for tigers.

If Tua stationary I think it makes game pretty even as in bama be in high 20s low 30s at best. However if he able to move around and roll out to throw I expect bama can easily go mid-high 30s, Just have no idea if that gonna be the case or not?

I like bears idea of under but I did a total 180 on that so I’m not touching. lol
 
Baylor seems a little too easy, but I am going to play it as well. They are off their worst game of the year. So if you think they are better than that, then you probably think they win today. If you think that is who they are and 8-0 is kind of a fraud, then you probably like TCU. This game aligns with a Baylor team I have mostly been 'on' and a TCU team I have mostly been 'against'. I know TCU did beat Texas - but that was mostly turnover driven correct? I don't recall exactly.
 
Looks like Bear's first Bank Pick was Georgia Tech

Agree that Baylor spread looks too easy. Maybe the feeling is Baylor will feel the pressure of being undefeated and ranked and play up tight. Can't be defense because while TCU has the rep, Baylor is better on D across the board this year.

I'm thinking the say way you are 2daBank. I'll watch the first few minutes of the broadcast once they go live and see what the announcers say about Tua. I saw some video of him working out yesterday and he looked good rolling out, but looked a little stiff as he ran back for the next play. I doubt my brain will allow me to bet against Bama unless he's out so I'll probably try and tackle the total
 
Some people have noted a look-ahead potential for Baylor with OU on deck. I counter that with the poor performance vs WVU should've kept them sharp this week.
 
s--k said:
Baylor seems a little too easy, but I am going to play it as well. They are off their worst game of the year. So if you think they are better than that, then you probably think they win today. If you think that is who they are and 8-0 is kind of a fraud, then you probably like TCU. This game aligns with a Baylor team I have mostly been 'on' and a TCU team I have mostly been 'against'. I know TCU did beat Texas - but that was mostly turnover driven correct? I don't recall exactly.
Click to expand...

Def feels that way but think it was on the bear and Steve podcast they were saying last 9x a undefeated of 8-0 or better has been short road chalk to a unranked they have won and covered 7 so while it seems like a “square” type play it has mostly cashed.. I been pretty high on bears all year, I don’t think they overrated or under (far as ranking goes) but they seem to still be getting undervalued by oddsmakers which has been a theme for them on road in big-12 play. Imo it seems like a pretty easy game to cap as in they have played several like opponents and bears stacked up better in every one of those games.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Looks like Bear's first Bank Pick was Georgia Tech

Agree that Baylor spread looks too easy. Maybe the feeling is Baylor will feel the pressure of being undefeated and ranked and play up tight. Can't be defense because while TCU has the rep, Baylor is better on D across the board this year.

I'm thinking the say way you are 2daBank. I'll watch the first few minutes of the broadcast once they go live and see what the announcers say about Tua. I saw some video of him working out yesterday and he looked good rolling out, but looked a little stiff as he ran back for the next play. I doubt my brain will allow me to bet against Bama unless he's out so I'll probably try and tackle the total
Click to expand...

There no chance I’d be against bama less than a td., them or nothing imo. I wouldn’t play LSU if he was out, lol. I think the bama d will be better than ppl think today. Lsu doesn’t possess the thing that always gives saban d problems, I know they not the same d this year but I think that youth more than not having talent and they have looked increasingly better as year has went on imo., far as total I lean under but I did a complete 180 on this and have long since missed the good numbers to play it at. Now I think it bout right, I have somewhere between 58-66 assuming Tua is fine.
 
Blazin' 5: Colin Cowherd Gives His Five Best NFL Bets For Week 10 (Nov. 8) (Full Segment at Bottom of Page)
Colin's 2019 Blazin' 5 Record Through 8 Weeks: 24-20-1 (Last week 1-4)
Click Here For FULL Blazing 5 Archives
Giants vs. Jets (SPREAD: NYG -3.0)
"This is a 'bet the number' game. It's two bad teams playing in the same stadium, so why wouldn't you take the Jets and the points?? The Giants are on a five game losing streak and Daniel Jones has lost all his confidence. Don't go crazy on Sam Darnold, he was 27 of 39 last week and had one ugly pick but he MOVED THE BALL. He doesn't feel bad about himself and played pretty well last week except a terrible pick. Since Week 5 the Giants are a mess and are last in everything, including points allowed and yards per play. They've allowed 30+ points in five games this year and only Tampa has allowed more. The Giants lead the NFL in turnovers, it's terrible! I get a field goal, the better quarterback, no home-field advantage, and the Giants can't stop anybody. I'll take the Jets to win, 30-24."
Colin's Pick: Jets (+3)
Cardinals at Buccaneers (SPREAD: TB -5.0)
"Like it? I LOVE IT. Arizona +5. I think Arizona is the better team and played a really, really tough schedule. They're 3-5-1, but all of their losses are against teams currently .500 or better. Arizona is a tough out, and despite having a rookie quarterback, rookie head coach, and bad offensive line, they have the fewest turnovers in the NFL at four. That's less than New England! Kyler doesn't have a pick in his last 172 pass attempts, the longest active streak in the NFL. Tampa has the worst pass defense in the league. They've have a brutal schedule where they've been on the road all month, and I get Arizona with ten days rest. I think Arizona wins, 28-26."
Colin's Pick: Cardinals (+5)
Panthers at Packers (SPREAD: GB -4.5)
"You know how I feel about Carolina. Green Bay is good but flawed. Carolina, similarly is good and average at quarterback but I get 4.5 points. I like the number and I'm taking Carolina. Carolina leads the NFL with 34 sacks. You saw what the Chargers defense did to the Green Bay offensive line, right? Carolina is going to get pressure. The Packers have the youngest defense in the NFL and has dropped off from its impressive start. They're giving up over 26 points a game the past six games, including 410 yards allowed on average. It's been EXPOSED. It's good and opportunistic but it's not special. Kyle Allen has been exceptional in the red zone because he has Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, and two good receivers. This is too many points and I think the Panthers COVER. I give Green Bay a close win, but I'll take Carolina and points ALL DAY."
Colin's Pick: Panthers (+4.5)
Rams at Steelers (SPREAD: LAR -4.0)
"This is another bet I LOVE. I'll take the Rams -4. Sean McVay has had his way with the weaker AFC. Outside of Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl he's 10-0. The Rams are coming off a bye and their offensive line is a little healthier. Since the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey the Rams have been a Top 5 defense in the NFL. Jared Goff's November numbers the last few years are all-time stuff. The Rams are on a two-game winning streak and held both of their opponents to just 10 points each. The Steelers are struggling on a backup running back and Mason Rudolph has a popgun arm. I'll like the Rams to win, 28-20, and I'm swallowing the four points.
Colin's Pick: Rams (-4)
Seahawks at 49ers (SPREAD: SF -6.5)
“I may be from Seattle, but I like the 49ers -6.5. The Seahawks defense is Bobby Wagner and Bondo. Seattle's defense is near the bottom of the league in total defense and pass defense. They've become incredibly Russell Wilson dependent and that's why I'd make him my MVP. The 49ers defense is ranked number one in total defense, pass defense, and red zone defense. They're also getting BOTH their tackles back, Joe Staley and Mike Mcglinchey, and also their FULLBACK to lead their running game. 49ers will win by more than a touchdown, 31-23."
Colin's Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
 
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