ESPN Handicappers picks--Week 10

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Only Phil Steele had the nerve to take a stab at the LSU/Bama game.

WEEK 10 PICKS
Chris Fallica Last Season 32-34-2) Week 9 (4-1) Season (30-24) 55%
(* Bank Picks on Gameday—Week 9 (3-0) Season: (11-11)
Oklahoma at Texas Tech – Texas Tech (+13.5)
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi St. – Louisiana Tech (+23.5)
Oklahoma St. at Baylor – Baylor (+8)
Fresno St. at UNLV – UNLV (+25.5)
Missouri at Florida – Missouri (+6)
Penn St. at Michigan – Michigan (-10.5)

Stanford Steve Last Season 32-27-1) Week 9 (3-1) Season (32-11) 74%
Best Pick, Season record (5-2)
UConn at Tulsa – Over (59)
Memphis at East Carolina – Over (64.5)
South Carolina at Ole Miss – South Carolina (pk)
Iowa St. at Kansas – Iowa St. (-14.5)
Nebraska at Ohio St. – Ohio St. (-17.5)* Best pick
Navy at Cincinnati – Navy (+13.5)
Southern California at Oregon St. – Over (61)

Phil Season Week 9 (1-6) Season (31-20) 61%
Ohio at Western Mich. – Ohio (-2)
Oklahoma at Texas Tech – Oklahoma (-13.5)
Texas A&M at Auburn – Texas A&M (+4.5)
Marshall at Southern Miss. – Marshall (-3)
Missouri at Florida – Florida (-6)
Ga. Southern at La.-Monroe – La.-Monroe (+7.5)
Alabama at LSU – Alabama (-14.5)
Michigan St. at Maryland – Michigan St. (-2)
UCLA at Oregon – Oregon (-10)

Scott Van Pelt Week 9 (5-4) Season (38-35) 52%
Oklahoma at Texas Tech – Texas Tech (+13.5)
Syracuse at Wake Forest – Wake Forest (+6.5)
Houston at SMU – SMU (+14.5)
Missouri at Florida – Missouri (+6)
California at Washington St. – California (+9.5)
Alabama at LSU – LSU (+14.5)
Michigan St. at Maryland – Maryland (+2.5)
Georgia at Kentucky – Kentucky (+9)
Utah at Arizona St. – Arizona St. (+7)

Colin Blazing Five Week 8 (3-2) Season (24-15) 62%
Adding Colin's Blazing 5. Not sure these are the exact numbers, but I'll get those later.:
Detroit at Minnesota – Minnesota (-5)
LA Chargers at Seattle – LA Chargers (+1)
LA Rams at New Orleans – LA Rams (-1)
Green Bay at New England – New England (-5)
Tennessee at Dallas – Tennessee (+5.5)

My Picks Last Season 50-34-2) Week 9 (6-1) (Season 49-28) 64%
Multi-unit picks (15-1) Max Picks (1-0) (+64.5 units)
Parlays—Week 9 (1-1) Season (2-1) (+4 units)
(One unit)
Temple at UCF—Temple/UCF over 59
Georgia at Kentucky—Kentucky +9x

I like betting dogs and don’t see much this weekend, so I’ll try to have some fun.
(One unit)
Iowa State -14x
Florida Int -2
Wyoming -14 (Worst weather of any game this week--winds 24-40. Wind chill 25)

(One pro bet, one unit, on a favorite prop of mine—NFL teams are 9-0 the game after the owner dies. Small sample size, but I’ve won the three times I played it and the Seahawks loved Paul Allen)
Seattle Pk

(Three parlays, ½ unit each)
Bad idea parlay (giving points to good home teams) Bama -14x/N Dame -10
ACC parlay (giving points to weak teams) Georgia Tech -4x/N C State -9
Pac 12 No defense parlay—Ariz/Colorado o 57x/USC/Ore St o 62
(I’m dead on the last one in the first quarter. Colorado was already missing their #1 receiver and five minutes after I bet it they lost #2 and #3. Bad timing)

May bet a couple tomorrow. Weather for Umass/Liberty--light rain. wind 23-35 mph and total is still 70. I’ll check the weather tomorrow.
Lean to Michigan State and Iowa. I'll check the line tomorrow

Good luck to all the fine pickers and good guys on this board

Saturday
(One unit)
Michigan State -2
Texas Pick
 
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Adding Scott Van Pelt's picks. He lists his record as having two more losses than I had for him so have changed that as well. Also adding that Stanford Steve's #1 pick for the week is Iowa State -14x

Scott Van Pelt Week 9 (5-4) Season (38-35) 52%
Oklahoma at Texas Tech – Texas Tech (+13.5)
Syracuse at Wake Forest – Wake Forest (+6.5)
Houston at SMU – SMU (+14.5)
Missouri at Florida – Missouri (+6)
California at Washington St. – California (+9.5)
Alabama at LSU – LSU (+14.5)
Michigan St. at Maryland – Maryland (+2.5)
Georgia at Kentucky – Kentucky (+9)
Utah at Arizona St. – Arizona St. (+7)

 
Adding Kentucky +9x, one unit. Not a real strong feeling here. Home team with a great SEC defense getting points at home against a team coming off a max performance in a rivalry game. I waited around all week for it to go to 10 and it hasn't budged. Looks to me like that means it's more likely to go to other way to I'll get on it now.
 
Adding Colin's Blazing 5. Not sure these are the exact numbers, but I'll get those later.:
Detroit at Minnesota – Minnesota (-5)
LA Chargers at Seattle – LA Chargers (+1)
LA Rams at New Orleans – LA Rams (-1)
Green Bay at New England – New England (-5)
Tennessee at Dallas – Tennessee (+5.5)
 
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Yeah, I missed that 10, Dexter. I kept thinking it would go back up, but it's not going to now.

S---K, I know Bear has to have some type of psychological compulsion that makes him pick the worst team he can find every week. Maybe when he was in high school the other guys made fun of him and told him he would never be a good handicapper and it twisted his psyche so badly he's out to prove he can win even with the worst teams in the country.
 
A friend just sent me this info:

Over the last four years there have been a total of 10 matchups between two top five teams. Results of those games:
Dogs are 8-2 ATS
Home teams are 6-2 SU (two neutral site games)
Lower ranked teams is 6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS
Therefore all trends indicate LSU is the side…but wait, in all those examples above Alabama is the “2”

Makes sense to me and is why I made a rule several years back to never go against Alabama the rest of my life in a game where the Tide is motivated. At least the rest of my life while Saban is the coach.
So I’m stuck. I hate giving points on the road, hate giving points under any circumstance to a team with a tough D, hate giving points to LSU in a home game at night. But I hate going against Bama even more.
I try to make it a rule to always bet the “game of the year” matchups, but I have no idea on this one. I guess I’ll flip a coin on the total.
Anyone have a better idea?
 
TahoeLegend said:
A friend just sent me this info:

Over the last four years there have been a total of 10 matchups between two top five teams. Results of those games:
Dogs are 8-2 ATS
Home teams are 6-2 SU (two neutral site games)
Lower ranked teams is 6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS
Therefore all trends indicate LSU is the side…but wait, in all those examples above Alabama is the “2”

Makes sense to me and is why I made a rule several years back to never go against Alabama the rest of my life in a game where the Tide is motivated. At least the rest of my life while Saban is the coach.
So I’m stuck. I hate giving points on the road, hate giving points under any circumstance to a team with a tough D, hate giving points to LSU in a home game at night. But I hate going against Bama even more.
I try to make it a rule to always bet the “game of the year” matchups, but I have no idea on this one. I guess I’ll flip a coin on the total.
Anyone have a better idea?
Click to expand...
Alabama TT over or LSU TT under....

Edit & to elaborate. When I dug into this one I faced a similar conundrum. I was lucky enough to tease it to -7 when I saw it hit -13.5 and then it shifted into how else can I play it. To simplify everything researched is the best unit on the field is Alabama offense, then LSU defense, then Alabama defense, and a distant last place is LSU offense.

I ended up biting on what I felt is the best unit on the field which is the Alabama offense and took the o34. That said, a big case can be made on the LSU under and instead of doing that I bit on the -14. Sort of what happens when too much time on my hands so gun to head I'd say LSU u21 is the best play on the board but I hate college unders so lay the 14 or play Alabama o34.
 
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I like betting dogs and don’t see much this weekend, so I’ll try to have some fun.
(One unit)
Iowa State -14x
Florida Int -2
Wyoming -14 (Worst weather of any game this week--winds 24-40. Wind chill 25)

(One pro bet, one unit, on a favorite prop of mine—NFL teams are 9-0 the game after the owner dies. Small sample size, but I’ve won the three times I played it and the Seahawks loved Paul Allen)
Seattle Pk

(Three parlays, ½ unit each)
Bad idea parlay (giving points to good home teams) Bama -14x/N Dame -10
ACC parlay (giving points to weak teams)Georgia Tech -4x/N C State -9
Pac 12 No defense parlay—Ariz/Colorado o 57x/USC/Ore St o 62
(I’m dead on the last one in the first quarter. Colorado was already missing their #1 receiver and five minutes after I bet it they lost #2 and #3

May bet a couple tomorrow. Weather for Umass/Liberty--light rain. wind 23-35 mph and total is still 70. I’ll check the weather tomorrow. Lean to Michigan State and Iowa. I'll check the line tomorrow

Good luck to all the fine pickers and good guys on this board
 
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Adding Texas pick one unit. I was going to take them at -2 but the line dropped to pick in the last hour or so. I don't see why. Lean to Michigan but that line got too high. Lean to Iowa and Utah, but I'll pass Iowa for now.
 
Is that trend first overall game or first home game after owner dies? Think the Detroit win would qualify as Seattle's first after Paul Allen's death. They might be able to keep it going today back home.
 
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