ESPN Handicapper Picks Week 3

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Bear—Week 3 (0-0) Season (2-4) Bank Picks (3-3) 2020 Season (25-21)
Purdue +7
W Virginia -3
UCLA -11x
Boise St -3x
W Forest -5
Hawaii +7
Bank Picks

Stanford Steve— Week 3 (0-0) Season (7-4) Best Bet (2-0) 2020 Season (32-27)
Penn St -5
BC -15x
Boise St -3x
Nebraska/Okla o 62
W Forest -5
Ariz St -4

Bill Trocci— Week 3 (0-0) Season (2-4) 2020 Season (42-31)
Michigan St +6x
Virg Tech +2x
Ark State +17

Phil Steele-- Week 3 (0-0) Season (9-8) 2020 Season (27-40)
Fresno St +11x
C Michigan +19x
S Florida –21x
Baylor -17x
La Tech +13x
UMass +22
Army -34x

Scott Van Pelt— Week 3 (0-0) Season (8-5) 2020 Season (42-39)
Illinois +7x
Indiana +3x
Florida +14x
Memphis +3
Purdue +7
Colo St +14x
Vandy +12
Tulane +14

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey Week 3 (1-1) Season (1-3) 2020 Season (14-12)
Fla/Bama o 60
Ohio St -24x
Matt Week 3 (0-0) Season (1-3) No 2020 Season
Okla -22x
Cincinnati -3x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 2 (0-0) Season (2-3) 2020 Season (35-37)
panthers +3.5
colts+3.5
eagles +3
steelers -6.5
chargers -3.5

Greg McElroy— Week 3 (0-0) Season (4-2)
Cincinnati -4
Kansas St +3
N Dame -7

My Picks— Week 3 (0-0) Season (6-4) 2020 Season (48-31)
La Tech +14
Mich St +6x
Kansas St +3
Virginia +9
Boise -3
Boise ML
 
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yea man, i really like nevada,, once i heard kst qb was out liked them even more as we have a lot of examples of kst without that kid as he gets hurt often and he really is the engine that drives the offense. i think it be a tough game but Strong a legit nfl qb and i think he will make enough throws much like he did vs Cal.. im really high on this team, i know going to k-st kinda a big ask but i think they up for it..after a rough 1q against Cal the defense really shut them down, maybe not hugely impressive but Cal offense was able to put up a bunch of points on tcu last week..i think kst will be able to have some success on the ground but i just dont think that be enough to keep up with this wolfpack offense lead by Strong , i think he potentially the best nfl prospect in this class.. im clearly super high on nevada but i cant be alone considering they opened as road favs vs a solid kst team..
 
surprised neither bear nor steve on cincy, sounded like they leaned that way on podcast. i dont think there any chance cincy blows their chances vs power 5 teams this year, i think they really good and have proven they can play with the big boys.. the way this season has started feels like it really sets up for a group of 5 to make the playoff, and if any group of 5 gonna do it think it the bearcats..
 
id love to hear what bear sees in hawaii? i didnt hear him mention that game in poidcast.. i freaking love sjst, i think they can do whatever they want vs hawaii d and i just dont think Cordero will be able to keep up against a really solid sjst d.
 
2daBank said:
im clearly super high on nevada
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I like Nevada a lot. Had them against California. You may be right. I thought seriously about buying the bet back when I heard about the QB and may regret I didn't.

I see McElroy took Cincinnati and I looked at them a long time myself. Still tempted.

You're the go-to ACC guy--how do you see Miami/Michigan St?

I have strong lean Boise, W Virginia, Virginia, Penn St, may take them all, but no hurry because I think all those lines may go my way. Lean N Dame, OU/Neb over, Wyoming, Liberty, Liberty over.

Any feel for any of those games?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I like Nevada a lot. Had them against California. You may be right. I thought seriously about buying the bet back when I heard about the QB and may regret I didn't.

I see McElroy took Cincinnati and I looked at them a long time myself. Still tempted.

You're the go-to ACC guy--how do you see Miami/Michigan St?

I have strong lean Boise, W Virginia, Virginia, Penn St, may take them all, but no hurry because I think all those lines may go my way. Lean N Dame, OU/Neb over, Wyoming, Liberty, Liberty over.

Any feel for any of those games?
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i like the under better than a side in the vtech/wvu game, i was surprised that total wasnt in the 40s. (i already bet under 50.5). just dont think either offense gonna have a lot of success, hokies missing their stud te who really their best playmaker in the passing game.. should be a real grind it out defensive battle, barring a bunch of special teams or defensive scores i just dont see it taking more than 24 at most to win that game,, far as side id lean bears way with wvu but was hoping they be small dogs.. under just makes way more sense imo..

canes are not one the acc teams i feel great about capping as i think they tough to get a handle on.. i certainly understand playing sparty with the points cause they might very well be able to push canes around with the run game..., my problem with sparty is i have app st rated better than them, of course i bet app st last week, they covered and probably should have won, problem being i got +8.5 with app st so getting less than a td with sparty doesnt feel like much value to me.. not sure the teams sparty have beat warrant them getting less points than a good app st team? doesnt mean they wont cover or even win, they very well might if they able to dominate the los and run all over mia. if canes can get penetration and get them playing behind the chains i think sparty could have turnover problems. total stay away for me.


i dont love boise qb but i think it them or nothing, something doesnt seem right with okie lite, if you got issues last place a power 5 team wants to be on the smurf turf!


i still have work to do on several the others you mentioned. ill come back to them sometime today.
 
i certainly understand playing uva with the points, im certainly not looking to lay them with unc..as much i like howell and as much hype he gets i thought last year those 2 stud rbs now in the nfl really what drove the bus for the heels offense, the transfer from tennessee was supposed to fill those shoes but so far the run game hasnt been good, against hokies they basically abandoned it from the jump rarely running any between the tackles. last week howell was the leading rusher against a team you woulda thought they be able to try and start establishing the run!! heels oline is not good enough in pass protection for them to be so one dimensional, at this point i dont even know why any team would come in respecting heels ground game at all? that asking a lot from Howell and his shaky line,, really think unc gonna have to start establishing something on the ground or this season gonna be a huge disappointment.. i do think the heels defense is pretty solid, after getting pushed around in the 1st half against tech i thought they played more than well enough for heels to win that game, it was the pressure on Howell that cost them that game..i do think heels defense is more equipped to deal with what uva does offensively than they are a power team. i think this more a watch and see game for me so i can try to figure out wtf to do with the heels moving forward cause right now i just dunno? like i said if they continue to be so Howell dependent with a suspect pass blocking oline it gonna be a problem..
 
2daBank said:
something doesnt seem right with okie lite,
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They are struggling. A lot of injuries on both offense and defense and Okla St rarely has any depth. They can't run the football at all, even though they have good RBs and Sanders is a better runner than passer. Problems with the O-line for sure and injuries to some of the best WRs.

Defense is playing better than the offense, but they've had injuries there too

I agree with you. Being on the blue turf is no place to be when you are already struggling
 
2daBank said:
i dont think there any chance cincy blows their chances vs power 5 teams this year,
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I lean the same way. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on giving points on the road, but I agree with you. A lot of other handicappers must too. I see a lot of picks on the Bearkats, not a single one on Indiana...uh, I mean Indinia.
 
Best Bets of Week II from the ESPN D-League Pickers:
(no picks from Hale this week)
Joe Fortenbaugh 5-4
Purdue +7
Bama/Florida o 58x
Utah -7x
Arizona St -3x

Bill Connelly 5-4-1
Virginia Tech +3
Michigan -27
Stanford -12
Texas -26
UCLA -11x

Doug Kezirian 4-9
N Dame -7
Penn St/Auburn u 1st H 27x
Stanford -12

Tyler Fulghum 2-1
Ohio St 1st Q -7
Liberty -27x
Iowa/Kent St u 56x

David M. Hale 2-6
 
SVP "I should make the bonus picks official, know what we're going to do we're going to list them because they're good at 6-1. When they stink I'm going to act like I never gave them" - classic!
 
Miss State line is coming down. I like to back Leach. I don't see Memphis as having the athletes they did a couple of years ago. I like Miss State in this spot. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, probably will later tonight
 
TahoeLegend said:
I lean the same way. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on giving points on the road, but I agree with you. A lot of other handicappers must too. I see a lot of picks on the Bearkats, not a single one on Indiana...uh, I mean Indinia.
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that is the only thing that really worries me, cincy feel super square but im convinced they win this game.. jesus, earlier in week i thought on the yahoo pick'em it showed pretty split picks on cincy/indy but now im seeing 85% taking bearcats.. so far this year you would be doing really well just fading the team with the higher percentage of picks on that site!! although last week teams picked at 80% or higher did manage to go 4-4-1 so not a total death sentence!! think they were 4-7 week 1.. i just cant believe cincy has worked their way up to this point and gonna blow it against the 1st power 5 on schedule.. i think how flat they were against murry st in 1st half last week speaks to how they view this game!! the way things going i really think stars aliening for them to make the playoff if they can handle their business,.i feel like they plenty deserving and can hang with the big boys other than bama who nobody can hang with,,., lets say another playoff caliber team was coming into this game at indy, wouldnt they be somewhere between 8-13 point favs?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Miss State line is coming down. I like to back Leach. I don't see Memphis as having the athletes they did a couple of years ago. I like Miss State in this spot. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, probably will later tonight
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i really dont like miss st but their defense did totally dominate ncst last week.
 
It's Cincinnati vs Indiana...feels like they are about equal really. I don't know that Cincinnati views this as some big hurdle we have to show the world game...it's Indiana. Indiana is respectable and had a good season last year, but if they think they are going to get a ton of praise and attention for beating Indiana that isn't happening. Now if it was Notre Dame like it will be 10/2, now that is something different, the history and the national brand.
 
s--k said:
It's Cincinnati vs Indiana...feels like they are about equal really. I don't know that Cincinnati views this as some big hurdle we have to show the world game...it's Indiana. Indiana is respectable and had a good season last year, but if they think they are going to get a ton of praise and attention for beating Indiana that isn't happening. Now if it was Notre Dame like it will be 10/2, now that is something different, the history and the national brand.
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i think the chance to beat any power 5 is a big deal to them.. i think these smaller schools always mark these chances.. the fact they get ND is why i think they have a legit shot to sneak in playoff but the irish game doesnt mean anything if they dont handle business here..
 
Looked back, Cincy was pk'em this summer at IU. IU O played bad week 1. Cincy has been Cincy. 3.5/4 point move, I guess if Indiana would've beat Iowa the line wouldn't have moved?
 
2daBank said:
i think the chance to beat any power 5 is a big deal to them.. i think these smaller schools always mark these chances.. the fact they get ND is why i think they have a legit shot to sneak in playoff but the irish game doesnt mean anything if they dont handle business here..
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Yes, I can't argue against that and agree from the standpoint of kids who are bitter they didn't get an offer at a P5 school. So they have something to prove. Indiana though has something to prove too, hey, a top 10 team is coming to their stadium, that is a big deal too.
 
i personally thought hoosiers were getting way too much love coming into the season, it crazy to me that game was a pick.. i certainly dont care what happened vs iowa, id have preferred indy looked good in that game cause i hate the perception is now the way i looked at this game from beginning.. maybe im too high on cincy? certainly possible,, fair point that it a important game for hoosiers also,, i just think cincy is much better team. i understand from a value perspective it aint great, where it sits now what is that like cincy-10 at home? i actually think that about spot on so not a great amount of value. im just convinced cincy not gonna blow their chance in this game.
 
Adding Pamela Maldonado to the list of pickers.

She picks both ML dogs and ATS. Last week she was 2-1 on ML dogs, 4-1 overall. The guy who sent me her picks says she was 3-0 on ML picks in week one

Her ML dogs this week (she lists the spreads, but is betting them ML)
Michigan St +6x
Kansas St +2x
Duke +3
 
i dont understand the sjst line moving off 7,, i hate my favorite 2 sides this week are popular road favs, not exactly my comfort zone.. i know hawaiii can be a tricky trip but sjst dealt with a lot of potential distractions last year and handled really well.. matchup wise i dont see anything to like bout hawaii and trust sjst off a bye and stepping back down in comp will button up their red zone issues and just dont think hawaii can match them score for score against sjst defense... far as cincy goes im still kicking myself for backing way off broncos last week even tho i was saying since start of preseason if teddy b won job i loved them week 1, then i let the fact everyone started buying them and line moving up scare me off a play that was spot on.. lol.. dont wanna do that again,
 
TahoeLegend said:
Adding Pamela Maldonado to the list of pickers.

She picks both ML dogs and ATS. Last week she was 2-1 on ML dogs, 4-1 overall. The guy who sent me her picks says she was 3-0 on ML picks in week one

Her ML dogs this week (she lists the spreads, but is betting them ML)
Michigan St +6x
Kansas St +2x
Duke +3
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Who is Pamela Maldonado? She could be an Al Quaida operative for all I know - but if you're a good capper, everyone's welcome I suppose.

Just never heard of her.
 
i had sportcenter on when SVP was doing "winners" segment but guess i was high or distracted cause dont remember any of it! lol., i do think he on illini cause i recall hearing him say "im not saying terps lose maryland fans dont get on me" (he is a maryland alum i believe)

cowherd blazing 5

panthers +3.5
colts+3.5
eagles +3
steelers =6.5
chargers -3.5

he also said bungals were his 6th team but didtnt make the cut cause their defense worried him,, last week his 6th pick that didnt make it was zona.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
Who is Pamela Maldonado
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Never heard of her either. She has a background in gambling and gambling media I think, but I only heard of her this week when a handicapper told me she was 3-0 on ML dogs in week one, 2-1 last week, 7-2 on her picks overall this year and her picks are published on Yahoo. That's all I know, but went back and looked in the Yahoo archives and those numbers are correct
 
i dunno bout playing eagles vs niners? i guess b2b early road starts might be tough, i dont completely buy philly just cause they whipped atl. niners looked pretty good until the last 4 minutes last week..
 
Added Virginia, but didn't pull the trigger on Mississippi State. Now I wake up this morning and the line is up to Miss St -3x.

Same story as Cincinnati. Both road teams, both teams I like, both look good to me, but I know giving points on the road is just not going to win money in the long term.

I see the Bama/Florida line is going down. I see why. Florida getting two touchdowns plus in the swamp is tempting. But not tempting enough to go against Alabama
 
I'd have to look at history but SF has gone back-to-back east coast games frequently. They usually stay somewhere in the east in between. No knowledge how they are doing it this year.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Virginia, but didn't pull the trigger on Mississippi State. Now I wake up this morning and the line is up to Miss St -3x.

Same story as Cincinnati. Both road teams, both teams I like, both look good to me, but I know giving points on the road is just not going to win money in the long term.

I see the Bama/Florida line is going down. I see why. Florida getting two touchdowns plus in the swamp is tempting. But not tempting enough to go against Alabama
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Up to -3? I haven't seen lower than a 3 anywhere. I had been seeing 3.5.
 
I think at times the Oklahoma St D can be pretty good. OSU OL wasn't good last year either, I'm surprised they are still struggling, but players being out can do that. Hard to trust the Ok St O. They were a 4 pt fav this summer at Boise.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Virginia, but didn't pull the trigger on Mississippi State. Now I wake up this morning and the line is up to Miss St -3x.

Same story as Cincinnati. Both road teams, both teams I like, both look good to me, but I know giving points on the road is just not going to win money in the long term.

I see the Bama/Florida line is going down. I see why. Florida getting two touchdowns plus in the swamp is tempting. But not tempting enough to go against Alabama
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i wanted to like the gators but feel like betting against bama the equivalent of simply setting money on fire.. i do think gators defense will have success getting pressure as bama oline hasnt really gelled as you would expect a bama road grading oline full of nfl talent to do. gators DC is really aggressive with blitzes and stunts which i think the right approach against bama offense, might as well be aggressive and try to create some splash plays on defense even if it means giving up some home runs, still beats the alternative of sitting back and waiting for the inevitable!! young has been getting pressured on a really high percentage his drop backs so far, of course he has some redic 150ish rating when under pressure!! i dont care how good he is that cant be sustainable can it? my bigger concern for the gators is i dont think either qb is accurate enough and while bama has at times struggled with mobile qbs i think most those guys were better passers than the gators pair, i think bama d is too fast for a run oriented qb to make a lot of plays vs them..
 
s--k said:
I think at times the Oklahoma St D can be pretty good. OSU OL wasn't good last year either, I'm surprised they are still struggling, but players being out can do that. Hard to trust the Ok St O. They were a 4 pt fav this summer at Boise.
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yea the d been solid but the run game has been inexplicably bad last few years, freaking Sanders was the leading rusher last week against a team you woulda thought they been able to do some things on the ground. All a sudden Gundy offenses a shell of what they used to be. Seems like it been awhile since boise got a power 5 up on the smurf turf! Last I remember was a pac-12 team (udub or ducks I forget) and think they handled them. I don’t like boise qb but I do think Cowboys better be careful or they fuck around and get rolled.
 
2daBank said:
yea the d been solid but the run game has been inexplicably bad last few years, freaking Sanders was the leading rusher last week against a team you woulda thought they been able to do some things on the ground. All a sudden Gundy offenses a shell of what they used to be. Seems like it been awhile since boise got a power 5 up on the smurf turf! Last I remember was a pac-12 team (udub or ducks I forget) and think they handled them. I don’t like boise qb but I do think Cowboys better be careful or they fuck around and get rolled.
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OSU is missing a couple WRs. Chubba tanked last year. Gundy should have let him go, rather than apologizing for his political preference.

I know you don't like the Boise QB. Why? IDK..he is a tough SoB and plays within the system. One that has been in place since Peterson was HC.
 
booksbestfriend said:
OSU is missing a couple WRs. Chubba tanked last year. Gundy should have let him go, rather than apologizing for his political preference.

I know you don't like the Boise QB. Why? IDK..he is a tough SoB and plays within the system. One that has been in place since Peterson was HC.
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I just feel like I’ve seen him make too many poor decisions, capped off by that awful one that cost them the ucf game. Think he needs to learn to just eat the ball and live to fight another down at times instead of forcing the action. He not terrible or anything. I don’t dislike him more than cowboys qb Sanders, that kid a freaking turnover waiting to happen! Lol
 
TahoeLegend said:
Three FCS road teams giving points to FBS home teams, Cincinnati, UCF, Nevada. I don't recall ever seeing that before
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only one I don’t like is ucf tonight, crazy thing is I think for most part all 3 getting love from the majority. It’s a new day! Of course several these group of 5 teams gonna find themselves in the big12 or another conf shortly. If they Havnt found one yet they better get on it cause think once all the super conf shuffling gets done it will be even tougher for teams not in one the power 5 to get a fair shake.
 
Think I’m gonna have a pretty light card this week, so far I’m on:

cincy-3.5
Boise -3
Sjst -6.5
Vtech/wvu under 50
arky st +17.5

Can’t believe I only have one dog so far! Not my kind of card but woof this week seems tough for them. Arky st could look like a awful bet within the 1st 10 min, or they could win outright! I still lean a few others and couple more totals like the under in BC/temple, cincy/Indy, and auburn/psu, most likely won’t play the auburn total good chance end up on the other 2.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Phil Steele picks. You can always count on him to make some picks no one else is making
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yes, UMass! Would you release UMass if you knew their top 2 interior DL were out on an already thin roster though? I mean I'm betting UMass knowing that but I'm not somebody people looks to for picks. If you are a guy like Phil, hard to give out UMass and USF on the same card!
 
Best College Bets of the Week by the Daily Wager crew
Anita
Auburn +5
Bear
Wake Forest -4x
Fortenbaugh
Bama/Florida o 60
Kezarian
Stanford -12x
 
Added Trocci picks. He had the best record of any public pickers last year, but has been 1-2 both week so far this year. If he goes 1-2 again I hope the 1 is Michigan St
 
I don't understand how sportsbooks are operating any more. This week 92% of the money and 88% of the tickets are on Alabama and it's the most heavily bet college game. It's the ninth straight Alabama game where 89% or more of the money is on them and yet the books never move the line. Week after week last year everyone bet on Bama, week after week the books lost money, almost every week the Bama game was the most heavily bet game of the week, and yet they never move the line more than a point or two

Also this week Virginia has 90% of the money on them and the line only moved from 9 to 8. 91% of the money and 92% of the tickets are on Coastal Carolina and the line never moved at all

In the pros 93% of the money and 91% of the tickets are KC and the line barely moves

Obviously the books are making money overall, but I don't understand why they don't even try to balance the books on some of these teams, especially Alabama when they
 
good call with k-st bro,, glad i was able to just pass cause i sure as shit woulda bet wolfpack, lol.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I don't understand how sportsbooks are operating any more. This week 92% of the money and 88% of the tickets are on Alabama and it's the most heavily bet college game. It's the ninth straight Alabama game where 89% or more of the money is on them and yet the books never move the line. Week after week last year everyone bet on Bama, week after week the books lost money, almost every week the Bama game was the most heavily bet game of the week, and yet they never move the line more than a point or two

Also this week Virginia has 90% of the money on them and the line only moved from 9 to 8. 91% of the money and 92% of the tickets are on Coastal Carolina and the line never moved at all

In the pros 93% of the money and 91% of the tickets are KC and the line barely moves

Obviously the books are making money overall, but I don't understand why they don't even try to balance the books on some of these teams, especially Alabama when they
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couple things, 1st im incredibly skeptical about the accuracy of the money they taking in, ive never really believed even if they telling a site that they being honest!! case and point i heard some obscure podcast this week where guy had on one the heads of a vegas book and he said flat out this was gonna be a rare week he got to root for bama so somebody lying!!! lol... secondly, it dont matter if there a few teams they get smashed on cause 99% of bettors gonna give those winnings back and them some!! who the hell comes into saturday and only bets one game? not many ppl!!!
 
TahoeLegend said:
I lean the same way. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on giving points on the road, but I agree with you. A lot of other handicappers must too. I see a lot of picks on the Bearkats, not a single one on Indiana...uh, I mean Indinia.
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they gave me a scare, played like complete ass most the 1st half with bunch of dumbshit penalties, luckily hoosiers let them hang around by squandering red zone chances!!
 
2daBank said:
they gave me a scare, played like complete ass most the 1st half with bunch of dumbshit penalties, luckily hoosiers let them hang around by squandering red zone chances!!
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They looked like they were clearly better once they got rolling. Now N Dame is probably going to be the biggest game in their history

Hope you are right on Boise St. I need them to come through
 
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