EPL Sept 22 to 23 Plays from North of the Border

Toronto_Mike

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
English Premier League:
Record: 34-33-7 -$446.25
Totals 8-8-2
Big Plays: 3-1

Been going on a hot streak the last 3 weeks, lets have a go at it this week

Arsenal vs Derby Kickoff 10:00am EST
Arsenal 1.14
Draw 7.00
Derby 23.00

Huge mismatch. Top of the table Arsenal play host to 2nd from bottom, Derby. Arsenal coming off an impressive 3-0 win over Sevilla during Champions League play. A lot of positive things are happening for the Gunners. Have yet to taste defeat this season and quite honestly should of been 100% if it wasn't for Lehmann's howler vs Blackburn. This squad is boosting with confidence now. The players understand their roles. Derby notched their first win of the season when new signing Kenny Miller scored a beauty against Newcastle at Pride Park. Their celebrations will be short lived when they travel to the Emirates, a very intimidating ground. I mentioned in the start of the season that these relegation dwellers will need to count on their home form to gain the points. So far Derby have been miserable on the road having allowed 11 and not even scoring a single goal in 3 road games. Arsenal can afford to play about this match. The quality of players is immense. Alexander Hleb and Phillippe Senderos will both be doubtful and in all honesty, I don't see why Wenger will want to risk any players who are listed as probable or doubtful in a match like this. We should see Arsenal just dominate this match, no reason why they won't, Derby will most likely play with 1 forward and the rest will defend in hopes of frustrating the Arsenal defense. Unfortunately for Derby, that tactic didnt work against Liverpool and Tottenham and they got crushed in both games. I like Arsenal to do damage yet again and continue their fine form of play.
Bet: Arsenal -1.75 @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Either team not to score @ 1.72 $300 to win $216
Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Derby
Goal Scorers: Arsenal, Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, Tomas Rosicky
 
Liverpool vs Birmingham Kickoff 10:00am EST
Liverpool 1.22
Draw 5.25
Birmingham 17.00

Another mismatch, although this game might be a little bit more of a headache for Rafa Benitez. During midweek, Liverpool settled for a 1-1 draw against Porto in the Champs League, it was by far one of their poorest performances this season and it was shown by Rafa's frustration on the sidelines. Lets not that Steven Gerrard is still playing with a sore toe, Jamie Carragher still does not look fit recovering from his rib injury. If there was one weakness teams can look into during the Porto match, it was their set piece defending. Some bad news, Xabi Alonso and Daniel Agger will be out for about 6 weeks. Both are key players to the Pool squad, even though there is depth on the Liverpool bench, it isn't the same quality that these 2 players posses.
Birmingham on the other hand are still a yo yo team. The results have been skeptical. Probably the most inconsistent team in the EPL, they opened up a positive result vs Chelsea but now we are starting to realize that Chelsea aren't their great self. So we can count that this Liverpool meeting will be Birmingham's first real test. Until captain Damien Johnson comes back, there is still a lack of leadership from this club.
In my opinion, i think the Liverpool offense will need to do their best to keep the pressure off the backline. The pace of the wings for Liverpool will be too much for Birmingham. This will be another case of defend as long as they can before the flood gates open. Birmingham have probably one of the worse goalies in the league in Maik Taylor. Fernando Torres should have a field day and add to his goal tally. The Reds will be happy to note that they will not have tough encounter for the next 3 games. i think with Agger gone, Birmingham might just slip a goal in, however their defense is absolutely horrendous and it will be exposed by the Liverpool forwards. Expect another home blowout.
Bet: Over 2.75 @ 2.10 $300 to win $330
Fernando Torres to score anytime @ 2.37 $200 to win $274
Prediction: Liverpool 4-1 Birmingham
Goal Scorers: Liverpool, Fernando Torres 2, Peter Crouch, Ryan Babel Birmingham, Cameron Jerome.
 
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland Kickoff 10:00am EST
Middlesbrough 2.10
Draw 3.20
Sunderland 3.60

Boro will look to get back on track after a humbling defeat to West Ham. Prior to that match, Boro had obtain points in 3 matches and were looking to shake off their rocky start to the campaign. Sunderland finally got a positive result last week with a 2-1 win over Reading. I think the 1-0 Loss to Man Utd really inspired the squad to push hard. Manager Roy Keane is pure discipline and understands that a game like this means a lot considering its against a midtable dweller.
Boro will still have some key injured players. Julio Arca, Emmanuel Pogatetz, Chris Riggot and Jeremie Alladiere are all out. Without Alladiere, now the attacking options for Middlesbrough will be limited to Sanli Tuncay. Tuncay hasn't done much since his move over the summer and people are starting to wonder if he is adjusting properly. Boro don't have a real attacking presence now that Yakubu is gone which makes them more vulnerable. Sunderland have had to deal with long term injury issues for a couple weeks now and it should now pan out to work in their favor as Keane will now know who he can consistently depend on to cover the absent players. Its tough to go against Boro at the Riverside, but I think now is the right time to do it. This team needs to find a new physio or players who aren't injury prone because its becoming absolutely ridiculous they cannot field their strongest XI for at least one game of a season. This is Roy Keane's 50th game he's managing and I think his character and determination will spread towards his players. Sunderland should be able to compete, this is a mini rivalry due to the North East location so it could very well end up in a draw. I think both sides will be extremely cautious and really take turns on attacks. Hard to say this but this could be a snoozefest when Boro usually lights it up at the Riverside.
Bet: Sunderland +0.5 @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Both teams to score @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Prediction: Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland
Goal Scorers: Middlesbrough, Fabio Rochemback Sunderland, Michael Chopra
 
hey mike like the aresenal pick
and for the boro game.. since it is a rivalry.. i think this igame is well under.. i hear sunderland coach likes to play a tight D
 
Ocean,
I was about to hammer Boro but then the line looks a little off. Their line up looks significantly weaker, during the first few games, it was their defense that looked weak, now its their frontline.
 
Reading vs Wigan Kickoff 10:00am EST
Reading 2.10
Draw 3.60
Wigan 3.20

2 very cautious teams with young managers. Both teams started out brightly but have all of a sudden fallen into the abyss and its starting to show they both will have a long season as earlier predicted. Now they face off in a crucial match for both squads to really get an advantage over the other if they want to start moving into a safe position from relegation. Wigan will be devastated to note that striker Emile Heskey will be out of action for at least 4 weeks. He was crucial to their attack and will surely be missed. Reading have been absolutely horrendous in the offensive front. They have managed only 3 goals during league play and have relied heavily on counters and the defensive approach. Now they are boosted by the return of Kevin Doyle and should have some sort of life with him partnering upfront with Leroy Lita. Manager Steve Coppell is a very disciplined manager and its hard to really see why his team is struggling, however, a lot of teams in their 2nd year into the EPL tend to falter, teams will know their weaknesses and their abilities. Wigan was in the same position before they fought off relegation. I'm still not impressed by Wigan, they have had an easy schedule and have really needed Heskey as a form of inspiration upfront. I dont' think Marcus Bent is anywhere close to being a good replacement for Heskey so Antoine Sibierski will now have a harder time finding the back of the net. Reading will be extremely happy to be back home. They have managed their only victory at home vs Everton and this is another good opportunity to get the max 3pts. Wigan manager Chris Hutchings is starting to realize that the EPL managerial role is not all that glamorous.
Bet: Reading -0.25 @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Prediction: Reading 1-0 Wigan
Goal Scorer: Reading, Leroy Lita
 
Fulham vs Manchester City Kickoff 12:15pm EST
Fulham 2.50
Draw 3.25
Manchester City 2.80

Teams with 2 contrasting styles of football. Fulham with a much more attacking flow but extremely weak defense and Manchester City who have a rock solid defense, patient but not as explosive attack. Fulham are starting to enjoy conceding late goals. The lack of concentration is costing them more points than they should of obtained. Last weeks 1-1 draw to Wigan was extremely disappointing, considering it was a home game.
Manchester City won have a very tight game vs Aston Villa due to Michael Johnson's brilliant goal. Defensively they look very solid with Micah Richards controlling the back, and a positive note is that captain Richard Dunne is back to partner up with Richards at the back. The weak link for City has been the play of keeper Kasper Schmiechel. Yes he's obtained quite a few clean sheets, but he still has A LOT to learn. Very timid in his decisions, he needs to work on his defensive commands, strength and judgement. I tip my hat to Sven for keep his faith on the young keeper.
Both teams do not have any fresh injury concerns. Key in this match is which team will play the tempo they want. The Craven Cottage should help out Fulham but don't expect to see another thriller like the Tottenham game. I do think that Man City's defense will get broken but City should be able to score on this pathetic Fulham defense. Players like Elano will open up that Fulham D and expose them during set pieces. Tough to pick a winner because one team has the advantage of solid home play but are currently on crap form, the other are still trying to find their rhythm on the road but are defensively sound. I don't like play unders when Fulham play its a crap shoot. I think City will manage to get on the score board twice.
Bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 $300 to win $249
Over 2.25 @ 1.975 $300 to win $292.50
Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Manchester City
Goal Scorers: Fulham, David Healy Manchester City, Elano, Emile Empenza
 
Newcastle vs West Ham United Kickoff 8:30am EST
Newcastle 2.10
Draw 3.40
West Ham Utd 3.40

This is such a difficult game to really predict. An inform West Ham team travels to a struggle Newcastle squad that has been a hit or miss all season. The Magpies have surely been the most overrated team this season. Things started brightly with a 3-1 win over Bolton at the reebok. Since then, they have had a hard time finding consistency scoring. Michael Owen has been rejuvenated but only for the England squad and still nothing for Newcastle. The partnership of Owen/Martins has been expected to succeed but it hasn't exploded as most predicted.
West Ham come in the game full of confidence. Since their opening day defeat to Man City, they have notched a point in every single game since. 2 road games, 2 wins, 2 clean sheets. Pretty impressive for a team that doesn't boost a really high calibre player. However, manager Al Curbishley has really settled the squad. After losing some key players to injury for the start of the season, the team has built a momentum and has a better understanding for one another. Influential midfielder Scott Parker could make his debut for West Ham and funny enough it would be against his former club. There are other former Newcastle players that could be featured, Noberto Solano who was considered a Newcastle legend may feature, Craig Bellamy will be upfront to lead the attack, Lee Bowyer has seen a new perspective and is playing fantastic football, whereas Kieron Dyer will be out due to a broken leg.
I really do not know what manager Sam Allardyce is doing twinking his attack line. Amoebi and Viduka are absolute rubbish yet he choses to play them ahead of the Martins/Owen combo. Alan Smith has not been as effective as thought to be, and they still seriously lack any sort of creative football. The Magpies suffered a humiliating loss to Derby on Monday and will look to erase that train of thought. However, I'm a little skeptical, they have proved nothing to me they can be trusted, just the inconsistency to score, even at St James' Park gives me concern. I do fancy Newcastle to get a result but its not a match I can clearly see a higher percentage winner or bet.
Bet: NO BET
Prediction: Newcastle 1-0 West Ham
Goal Scorers: Newcastle, Obafemi Martins
 
Aston Villa vs Everton Kickoff 9:00am EST
Aston Villa 2.20
Draw 3.20
Everton 3.40

This is going to be a very tough encounter for both teams. For Aston Villa, they are playing a difficult stretch, having played Chelsea and Man City, Everton come into town, after this, Villa travel to London to face Tottenham then play host to West Ham and Manchester Utd. So points are needed to really keep the players morale alive after their Chelsea victory. Last week saw Man City really frustrate the Villa attack. It is apparently that Villa are deadly on the attack set pieces but they are also a little weak when defending the set pieces.
Everton are coming off a miserable midweek when they opened their UEFA quest with a 1-1 draw vs FC Metalist. The big news there was how Andy Johnson managed to miss 2 penalties which could prove costly. Now, if Everton want to get anything from this match, Johnson has to stay focus. Manager David Moyes has kept his faith on the former Crystal Palace hitman but the striker has yet to hit a goal since March vs Arsenal. The purchase of Yakubu has certainly given the Everton attack some sort of light but the club still relies heavily on their defensive approach. A couple key injuries for Everton, keeper Tim Howard is still out with a finger injury, influential midfielder Mikel Arteta is still listed as a game time decision after missing the UEFA Cup match with a foot injury.
Both teams are looking to get back on track to winning ways and both suffered 1-0 defeats to Manchester teams in the last EPL encounter. However, Villa have been down right awful on the right, having not scored a goal, they shift their focus at home where they have found more success infront of the net. The players are focused to get back on track and hope that the 2-0 victory over Chelsea is no fluke. I do not think we'll see a draw here, so far this season Everton tend to lose a bit of focus in the last quarter of the game and has proven costly. If Villa can provide a much better offensive effort at home, they have an advantage. Everton will need to take advantage of their set pieces and corners to get anything out of this match.
Bet: Aston Villa ML @ 2.20 $300 to win $360
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton
Goal Scorers: Aston Villa, John Carew, Luke Moore
 
Blackburn vs Portsmouth Kickoff 10:00am EST
Blackburn 2.00
Draw 3.20
Portsmouth 4.00

Blackburn come into this match depleted from their 2-0 UEFA Cup loss. It was a poor result considering the positive form Blackburn have been during league play. They will need to bounce back this match at Ewood Park to erase any sort of morale pain inflicted during midweek. Portsmouth are still winless in their last 19 road matches. Its quite a record considering the amount of talent they have on their team. Not too sure what is going on there but it doesn't make sense. Portsmouth have a fully fit squad for this encounter and it really is troubling to see them struggle. Manager Harry Redknapp seriously needs to discipline his team on their travels if they want any shot at playing in Europe next season.
Blackburn will miss captain Ryan Nelsen, he is out due to a hamstring injury. Blackburn's attack has been far from impressive since last season. The squad has been blanked in back to back games now and really should get a result here at home. Blackburn have suffered only 1 defeat in the last 15 competitive matches and will look to rebound again today. Next two matches for Blackburn will be at home so they will look to pick up the points and form before their UEFA Cup tie. Not a fan of Portsmouth on the road, they play a lot better at home as an underdog. But on the road in a bigger stadium, there is a sense of loss communication between the defenders. Blackburn should take the points here
Bet: Blackburn -0.5 @ 2.05 $300 to win $315
Prediction: Blackburn 2-1 Portsmouth
Goal Scorers: Blackburn, Benni McCarthy, Robbie Savage Portsmouth, Benjani
 
Bolton vs Tottenham Kickoff 10:00am EST
Bolton 3.00
Draw 3.20
Tottenham 2.40

So has Tottenham seen some light with their recent 6-1 UEFA Cup victory? Well the opponents weren't worthy but a big win like that really gets the confidence going from the players, especially a bench warmer like Jermaine Defoe who seemed destined to leave in the summer after the Darren Bent purchase. Defoe played a fantastic game and looks rather to compete for a start upfront. Bolton on the other hand have only secured 3 points in their 3-0 win over Reading. During the midweek they were lucky to have earned a 1-1 draw on the road. Luck doesn't keep you up in the EPL. The quality of defenders have drop and Sammy Lee is not the right manager nor is he a manager of EPL quality. Martin Jol is still at Tottenham, the board has kept their faith in the man. I am not a big fan of Jol, but the board are doing the right thing to keep Jol for the time being, it is a long season so Jol still has time, if he can manage some positive results against teams such as Bolton, Tottenham can easily be back in the picture. Defender Michael Dawson will play his second full game after recovering from an injury, hopefully he can solidify the Spurs defense which has been their weaklink. There are no fresh injury reports from either side of the camp. Spurs should be impressed by the recent form of Gareth Bale. The squad now has speed on both sides with Lennon back in the scene. I don't think we'll see any sort of defense this encounter, attack attack attack! However, Tottenham should be able to snatch this one. I see value in them, they have more quality but need to show they can posses the quality into wins especially on the road.
Bet: Tottenham ML @ 2.40 $300 to win $420
Over 2.5 @ 1.8 $300 to win $240
Prediction: Bolton 1-2 Tottenham
Goal Scorers: Bolton, Nicolas Anelka Tottenham, Gareth Bale, Robbie Keane
 
sorry for the no write up on this one. But i got this line the moment i heard Mourinho got sacked. Lets see if it holds.

Man Utd ML @ 2.20 $300 to win $360
 
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