EPL Sept 15 to 16 Plays from North of the Border

[Toronto_Mike]

English Premier League:
Record: 30-30-7 -$1330.25
Totals 8-7-2
Big Plays: 1-1

So action is back after a weeks break due to Euro Qualifying, the key this week is finding out which team has a lot of fatigued players. There are a couple road favorites this week which doesn't happen too often for good reason. Hopefully we can find some sort of value. Past two weeks have been great so hopefully I can bring in some more winners.

Everton vs Manchester Utd Kickoff 7:00am EST
Everton 4.50
Draw 3.50
Manchester Utd 1.80

A very interesting match to kick off the weekend. Man Utd have somewhat found a little groove but they don't win pretty. Everton have been consistent so far this season, however the past 3 matches have been disappointing. They needed a last minute goal to win at the Reebok, drew with Blackburn and lost to Reading. A major problem may occur in this fixture when starting keeper Tim Howard is reported to have a dislocated finger during an international friendly when he was in goal for the US in a 4-2 defeat to Brazil. There is still no confirmation to the extent of the injury and whether or not he will be available for this big match. If he is unavailable, manager David Moyes will turn to veteran Stefan Wessels who is still a reliable backup choice. During the week, Everton striker James McFadden became a Scotland hero when he struck the winning goal in a famous Scotland victory over France. This is certainly a confidence booster but that does not mean he will get a starting spot because recent arrival Yakubu scored on his debut 2 weeks ago and is set to start upfront with Andy Johnson. Tim Cahill and James Vaughn are still recovering from their injuries and are progressing well.
Man Utd will look to win 3 games in a row and are aiming to keep another clean sheet as well. What is suprising about this years Man Utd squad is that they have great attacking power but yet they still disappoint in games considering they have great defense. If they continue to only win games by one goal, sooner or later they will get caught napping. The 1-0 loss to Man City came from a beautiful Geovanni boot but that was the only threat the Citizens had. So far this season, the teams Utd have played have really been physical and given the Red Devils a real tough test. I think that will happen again at Goodison Park. I think the Utd offense is good enough to get at least a goal vs Everton. Key here will be how well can Everton control the midfield. Time and time again, Utd have used the flanks to storm their attack but what good does it do when they do not have an aerial target. Carlos Tevez has not been as effective yet but perhaps once Rooney comes into the picture there will be magic. Cristiano Ronaldo will be back after serving his suspension. For now, Utd's defense has just been absolutely steady like a rock. I think we should expect the same again in this match. No real recent injury concern for Utd. A couple players on the squad played midweek but the fitness is still top notch. I'm basing my pick due to Tim Howard's presence. For now i've got to go with Man Utd, I believe they play better against tougher oppositions, Everton will not sit and defend and that could be dangerous. Utd's pace maybe a little too much to handle.
Bet: Manchester Utd -0.5 @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Prediction: Everton 1-2 Manchester Utd
Goal Scorers: Everton, Leon Osman Manchester Utd, Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Portsmouth vs Liverpool Kickoff 7:45am EST
Portsmouth 5.00
Draw 3.50
Liverpool 1.72

A game i'm keen to bet on. Liverpool will have quite a few tired legs. The following players have played in both qualifying matches for their country: Fernando Torres, Xabi Alonso, John Arne Riise, Steven Gerrard, Ryan Babel, Yossi Benayoun, Daniel Agger and Andriy Voronin. Though not all of them played 90 minutes, they were featured in the qualifying matches. Only Benayoun played in one match. Sure Liverpool have huge depth but, players such as Steven Gerrard whom the British media had questioned about his toe my start to feel the heat. Pompey on the other hand, were coming off a 3-1 defeat over Arsenal. After the match, manager Harry Redknapp was furious with the defense and admitted, Arsenal outplayed them. The defense was sloppy and Redknapp voiced concerns about the international break. Portsmouth had a tough stretch, in the first month and a half, they have already played Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester Utd and now finish the top 4 with Liverpool this weekend. They loss to Arsenal and Chelsea away but drew against Utd at Fratton Park. I sense they can do something this weekend vs Liverpool. Fratton Park is not an easy place to play, much more smaller stadium, very intimate, Pompey rely heavily on their home form to push them up the ladder and this could be a great match to get the rhythm back. Liverpool will want to look to extend their unbeaten start to the season and i think they can manage at least a draw here. I"m still concern about Carragher's ribs and Gerrard's toe. If both play, how effective will they be, will Rafa Benitez change the line ups? Liverpool will kickoff their Champions League campaign only 3 days after this match vs FC Porto in Portugal. So what could go on the minds of these players? Both clubs will have minds set for Europe, that is for sure but Rafa Benitez is a smart manager will be cautious with his approach. Still very early in the season, he has the bench but playing a team like Portsmouth is hardly the same as Derby. Harry Redknapp will want a much more improved performance by his defense vs Liverpool and i think they match up better vs The Reds then they did against Arsenal. I think a point between the 2 will be an ideal result, both clubs stacked with offensive talent, but defensive abilities will be key in this match.
Bet: Portsmouth +0.75 @ 1.80 $500 to win $400
Prediction: Portsmouth 1-1 Liverpool
Goal Scorers: Portsmouth, Kanu Liverpool, Dirk Kuyt

 

[Greencastle]

Tough games to call.

Like the over in the Man United game though.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

its a tough week indeed green, i'm a little skeptical with how teams would perform after the break. so i'm going to be extremely picky with the favorites. I just feel Utd may have a better defensive effort. Everton's defense has been quite uncharacteristic of late.

 

[Greencastle]

ya, not playing much in the premiership this weekend myself.

got spurs/arsenal over 2.5 already locked in. and will probably play newcastle on monday.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

newcastle game smells like fish, don't like that line. considering its a monday game, vs the worse team in the league, don't know why that line is very deceiving.

 

[Greencastle]

I know what you mean about the line. But it's probably because Newcastle typically don't travel that well and Derby will be determined to make up for that beat down in Liverpool.

Still, I can't see how they keep Owen, Martins, Viduka and co off the scoresheet.

But it's a Monday game, so there's no rush to put the play in just yet.

 

[Morphius]

GL MIke

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Tottenham vs Arsenal Kickoff 8:30am EST
Tottenham 2.80
Draw 3.20
Arsenal 2.50

Game of the week on the board. This is a North London derby. Two teams that do not like each other and are only a few minutes away from one another. 2 Teams in opposite directions of one another. Arsenal are charging through the table while Tottenham are in a complete disarray. However, this game can mark a stepping stone for one team. A win for Tottenham could revitalize Martin Jol's men and his job. A loss could mean Jol is forced out and the Spurs will continue to drop and wonder what on earth is going on. Arsenal will seek a rare victory at The Lane, something they've done only once in the last 9 meetings. However in those last 9 meetings at The Lane, Tottenham have only managed 1 victory.....That's quite astonishing. Tottenham have been hampered by injuries at the back but they at least have Michael Dawson back and it looks like Kaboul will partner along side with him. Best news Tottenham have had in awhile is that Aaron Lennon seems set to fill his place on the right. His speed will provide a much needed boost for the frontline who have been some what inconsistent this season. Arsenal face a couple injuries at the back. Goalie Jens Lehmann is still out, although he has been more of a big mouth than a goalie this season. The Key injuries will be Phillippe Senderos and William Gallas. Both natural Centre Backs are out which means manager Arsene Wenger will have to shift around his defense and force Gilberto Silva to play a central defensive role along side Kolo Toure. In most cases, a derby is an extremely heated encounter, there will be a lot of emotions running in this game. Considering the current state of Tottenham, this is a HUGE game for them. It would be a huge relief if they can manage a victory over their most hated rivals but its not so easy. This season's Tottenham squad have been questionable, they showed a lack of concentration against Fulham but against Man Utd they certainly did not deserve to lose that game. I'm curious to find out which Tottenham side we shall see in this match. Arsenal have been playing brilliantly and good news this past week was that Arsene Wenger extended his contract with the club to much of the relief of the supporters and the club. This is a difficult game to pick in terms of a betting stand point. The best thing to do is watch and play a live bet. We really need to see how Tottenham plays before risking anything. Arsenal have been consistent so far this season playing some great keep away football. Both teams will have European games during the midweek so there is no advantage from one team over the other. The prices for the Over are too short and considering the way Arsenal play, they can easily milk the clock and work the possession up. I believe for either team to win, set pieces will be crucial. The run of play is very open as both teams have options on the wings and speed. I"m going to pass on this game.
Bet: NO BET
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal
Goal Scorers: Tottenham, Robbie Keane Arsenal, Cesc Fabregas

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Birmingham vs Bolton Kickoff 10:00pm EST
Birmingham 2.37
Draw 3.25
Bolton 3.00

Two strugglers face off in a match where both sides really need to get ahead of one another. Both have only 1 win this entire season and both have horrendous defensive issues. Birmingham has allowed a goal in all 5 of their matches, while Bolton have allowed a goal in 4 out of the 5 played. Both teams have been playing uninspiring football, there is a lack of killer instinct and desire to play. Bolton, however, do have more quality then The Blues. Nicolas Anelka, surprisingly decided to stay on with the Trotters instead of moving out. That is a major boost for manager Sammy Lee who needs to worry on other aspects of the team rather than his forwards. Birmingham are still without captain Damien Johnson and until he returns, this team has no form of leadership or guidance. Advantage should be for the home team, however, Steve Bruce has not found success at home. Its difficult to tell how these 2 teams will react in this crucial tie. However, knowing how both lack discipline, i would say we would see a few goals in this match. I think both the defenses are just terrible and are vulnerable to any form of attack, but i also do think Bolton have better quality. Kevin Davies looks set to return for Bolton but it may take awhile before he can click with Anelka. So at this time there really is no advantage for either team.
Bet: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 $300 to win $339
Both teams to score @ 1.80 $300 to win $240
Prediction: Birmingham 2-1 Bolton
Goal Scorers: Birmingham, Olivier Kapo, Gary O'Connor Bolton, Nicolas Anelka

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Sunderland vs Reading Kickoff 10:00am EST
Sunderland 2.25
Draw 3.25
Reading 3.20

Another match deciding 2 strugglers. Sunderland have been free falling. After their victory over Tottenham on opening day The Black Cats have been horrendous only getting 1 point from the next 4 matches. Reading have also been on a free fall. They started out with an impressive 0-0 draw vs Man Utd, then narrowly losing to Chelsea and beating Everton but after that, a string of poor discipline from Steve Coppell's men has seen them go pointless in the next 2 league matches both of which have been 3-0 defeats. Sunderland have been hit with the injury bug, new signing Kieran Richardson is out for about 3 months, whereas key players Andy Cole, Carlos Edwards, Dean Whitehead and Stanislav Varga are all out. Those 5 players are veterans to the game and will surely be missed. Reading have a little bit of a problem themselves. Key players John Oster, Michael Duberry and Glen Little will miss this important fixture. Both teams are having a hard time finding the back of the net. This can become a gritty game but I think Roy Keane's motivational skills will be the decider. Reading aren't a very satisfying road team and to be honest, they aren't playing very competitive football. I think the home comforts will be a huge benefit for Sunderland and Keane will take it a lot of positives from their last performance against Man Utd.
Bet: Sunderland -0.5 @ 2.33 $300 to win $399
Prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Reading
Goal Scorer: Sunderland, Michael Chopra

 

[blackcrow]

Like the picks. I've got similar views

:cheers:

 

[Toronto_Mike]

West Ham vs Middlesbrough Kickoff 10:00am EST
West Ham 2.00
Draw 3.40
Middlesbrough 3.75

A clash of 2 teams jocking for position around the mid-table. Both clubs started out slowly but have come to life the past few games and look set to find a consistent sense of form. West Ham have obtained a point in their last 3 matches since their opening day loss. Boro are on a similar path having lost their first 2 matches they have now come back to obtain 2 wins and a draw in the last 3 league games. West Ham still have a huge list of injuries but they have still managed to compete with the squad they currently have. Scott Parker could make his debut for this match, it certainly will be a boost in the long term but it will take time for him to finally fit into the team. Middlesbrough will be happy to finally get their defensive line back together however, there is news that goalie Mark Schwarzer has tweeked his knee during international friendly. Whether it is serious or it, its questionable so he is listed as probable. Boro is still a terrible road team, they were extremely fortunate enough to escape Fulham with a victory after a referee mistake and a lucky Mido goal. West Ham have bought plenty of players during the window but a ton of them got injured so it took time for a long of the second stringers to finally realize this is their chance to make an impact. Craig Bellamy had a solid outing for Wales midweek and will look to continue his form into the league. Head to Head, the setup is best for a home win. 18 league meetings, only 1 home victory. I sense tradition will continue. Traveling from Middlesbrough to East London isn't easy, expect Middlesbrough true road play to come to life.
Bet: West Ham -0.5 @ 2.05 $500 to win $525
Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Middlesbrough
Goal Scorers: West Ham, Craig Bellamy, Matthew Etherington Middlesbrough, Tuncay

 

[parisnovella]

GOODLUCK MIKE!:cheers:

 

[Toronto_Mike]

thanks fellas, i'm in a big rush i don't have write ups for the next set of matches but I won't touch either of them, too fishy for my liking. Good Luck!

 

[buffalo_bill]

:36_1_36:nicely done with Man U!

 

[El Mago]

Great job all around today.... keep it up

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Kickoff 11:00am EST
Manchester City 2.40
Draw 3.20
Aston Villa 3.00

Aston Villa a remarkable victory over Chelsea 2 weeks ago. It ended Chelsea's 18 match unbeaten run and they shut The Blues out. Now they travel to Manchester, to face a team they do not enjoy playing. In the last 10 games, Aston Villa have managed only 1 victory over Manchester City and oddly enough it was at the City Stadium. Both teams clearly look like a different squad. Man City totally revamping their entire squad other Sven Goran Eriksson. Aston Villa look like a much more compact unit and have played absolutely superb on the defensive end. Manchester City started out the season brilliantly but have now started to show signs of lapses. They will have to wait on the fitness of midfielders Geovanni and Michael Johnson. The City attack hasn't been as impressive as most would of thought. Bianchi is still having a hard time adjusting, Valeri Bojinov is a long term injury. The depth of the forward line is slowly depleting with Darius Vassell being unsettled. Defensively, Man City have done a traffic job but i'm curious to see how young keeper Kasper Schmeichel can keep up his work rate. Aston Villa still have problems at the Right Back, but now have shifted Olaf Mellberg to that position and Martin O"Neill has decided to partner Zat Knight and Martin Laursen together. Keeper Scott Carson has just been absolutely wonderful. He is well organized and this season has been extremely determined to prove he is worth of being the England #1. This game marks 2 things. Villa will need to prove that their victory over Chelsea wasn't a one trick pony thing and that they can really compete. Man City on the other hand have to start beating competitive teams like Villa if they really believe they have the squad to go into Europe. This could be a real good defensive battle. However, Villa's pace along the wings has been a real nuisance to a lot of defenders and I can see that happening again today. Gareth Barry is coming off a superb week for England and will look to continue his form this game. I think Villa can repeat last season's 2-0 victory at City. Not going to go too crazy this game as Villa are my team but I do think they are worthy of a punt at the odds given.
Bet: Villa ML @ 3.00 $100 to win $200
Prediction: Manchester City 0-1 Aston Villa
Goal Scorer: Aston Villa, John Carew

 

[parisnovella]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="95%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD align=left>Man City vs Aston Villa</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Man City: Schmeichel, Onuoha, Richards, Corluka, Garrido, Vassell, Johnson, Hamann, Petrov, Mpenza, Elano</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Subs: Hart, Ball, Bianchi, Jihai, Gelson</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Aston Villa: Carson, Mellberg, Laursen, Knight, Bouma, Agbonlahor, Reo-Coker, Barry, Young, Carew, Moore</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Subs: Taylor, Davies, Petrov, Gardner, Maloney</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Referee: Martin Atkinson (W Yorkshire)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
---------------------
CAREW,AGBONLAHOR AND VILLA
GOOD LUCK MIKE