EPL Aug 18 to 19 Plays from North of the Border

Toronto_Mike

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Record: 9-11 -$1412.50
Totals 3-1
Big Plays: 0-0

Interesting midweek action. We'll see some teams fresh and others a little fatigued but never the less, i think there are some great games on board.

Portsmouth vs Bolton
Portsmouth 1.83
Draw 3.30
Bolton 4.33

Bolton are looking for their first point while Portsmouth are still looking for their first win. Portsmouth are coming off a very intense midweek encounter vs Man Utd and will miss hardnose midfielder Sulley Muntari due to second bookable offense and will serve his suspension this match. Also absent in this match will be captain Sol Campbell. However, Portsmouth did pretty good without Campbell vs Man Utd and will want to try and immitate their performance midweek to fend of Bolton.
The Wanderers on the other hand will still be without Kevin Davies and Ricardo Vaz Te. The key concern for Bolton has been their defense, they are starting to feel the effects of no Ben Haim and i'm starting to think goalie Jussi Jaaskelainen doesn't care anymore and will just want a quick exit. I am expecting a Portsmouth victory here, its now part of my system play.
Bet: Portsmouth -0.5 @ 2.05 $250 to win $262.50
Prediction: Portsmouth 2-0 Bolton
Goal Scorers: Portsmouth, John Utaka, David Nugent
 
Birmingham vs West Ham
Birmingham 2.37
Draw 3.25
West Ham 2.87

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend, not because its a battle at the top of the league but there is quite a lot going on in the backroom especially for West Ham. West Ham have recently signed Kieron Dyer from Newcastle and he is expected to make his debut vs Birmingham. Along with Dyer will be Lee Bowyer, a former Newcastle teammate. Sounds like all fun and games but back in 2005 during a match against Aston Villa, Bowyer and Dyer had a go at each other and had to be separated by both Villa and Newcastle players. It was quite an embarrassing moment for Newcastle and the players. I'm still a little baffled by Curbishley's buy simply because he clearly knows the history between the players. To make matters more interesting, earlier this week former player Paul Konchesky now in London rivals Fulham took a shot at Curbishley saying the players hate him and the manager was the reason why Tevez left. Another interesting note is that Sheffield United are now suing West Ham over the Carlos Tevez issue. Seems like those pesky Blades wont give up until they get some sort of compensation. So what can we expect from the interesting week? Well you could say Birmingham will take advantage of this little internal suffering but then again, the Blues are finding it quite difficult to defend against teams.
Birmingham look upon Mikael Forssell to provide the offense needed. Olivier Kapo has performed well the first 2 games in Birmingham but might be slightly hampered from a little knock he picked up midweek.
I'm not keen on this match but considering Lucas Neill is back for West Ham and is available for selection that is an added boost to the West Ham backline. I also think West Ham maybe able to squeak out a positive result in the Midlands having the week to recover and rest.
Bet: NO BET
Prediction: Birmingham City 1-1 West Ham Utd
Goal Scorers: Birmingham City, Mikael Forssell West Ham Utd, Craig Bellamy
 
Fulham vs Middlesbrough
Fulham 2.10
Draw 3.25
Middlesbrough 3.40

Two teams that were tipped for a relegation battle, one team looks ready to stay in the Premiership, while the other looks destined for a long struggle. Fulham welcome Middlesbrough to the Cottage where Boro have only managed 1 victory in 5 tries at the Cottage. The home team has won the last 4 meetings and i think we'll see the same trend again. Boro are still one of the worse road teams in the league. Whereas Fulham have known to be a pretty good home squad. Fulham Lawrie Sanchez is most likely going to stick with the same squad that beat Bolton midweek. Boro still without their 3 key defenders while Fabio Rochemback will serve his last game of suspension. The key news that really bought this game to my attention was that Middlesbrough forward Yakubu is most likely heading to Everton and did not travel with the team. That's a big hit to the offense that has struggled in the first 2 games. Gareth Southgate could be on the hot seat and i think Boro will push further more into the deep end of the table. I expect Fulham to continue being a great value bet. This will be my biggest bet of the week
Bet: Fulham to win @ 2.10 $1000 to win $1100
Prediction: Fulham 2-0 Middlesbrough
Goal Scorers: Fulham, Brian McBride, David Healy
 
Reading vs Everton
Reading 2.50
Draw 3.25
Everton 2.70

Reading has had the hardest schedule yet to date but they have not been pushovers. Opening with a very tough defensive display vs Utd and just narrowly losing out to Chelsea, the Royals now face the Toffees who are seeking 3 wins out of 3. Everton, traveled to London midweek and convincingly won 3-1 at White Hart Lane. The Royals will miss some crucial players for this match. Centre-Back Michael Duberry who has been absolutely brilliant for the Royals will be out with a groin injury, newly purchased Kalifa Cisse is suspended for this match due to his red card vs Chelsea. I"m a little worried that Kevin Doyle might be over worked as he is Steve Coppell's only available key striker. Everton will most likely field the same starting XI as in midweek. So no new injury concerns. I'm still scratching my head over the line. The books are doing one of two things, they are either respecting Reading's fight too much or are still not impressed by Everton's wins. I for one will not touch this match, no Cahill, no bet when Everton plays. I do have this gut feel that this could turn out to be a draw for Reading but more likely to see Everton with the positive play.
Bet: NO BET
Prediction: Reading 0-1 Everton
Goal Scorer: Everton, Andy Johnson
 
Tottenham vs Derby
Tottenham 1.44
Draw 4.00
Derby 7.50

Ok so Tottenham have looked depleted and unorganized especially at the back but its still early in the season. We now know how important Aaron Lennon is to the offense and we also know that Tottenham is most likely going to have to outscore its opponents to win most of their games for the time being. Derby played fairly well vs Man City midweek and will look to continue their current form over to London. The Spur's will be missing 3 key defenders, Ledley King, Michael Dawson and now Younes Kaboul will be out, that's 3 key central defenders gone leaving that backline practically wide open to attack. Dimitar Berbatov is also out of the match after picking up a groin injury, but i think this is the game that the record signing, Darren Bent, finally gets his first Tottenham league goal. The heat is on for the Londoner's, they cannot afford to lose points especially at home. Their next game will be at Old Trafford so Martin Jol knows if they want points, its best to rake up the 3 at home vs the newly promomted visitors.
Bet: Tottenham -1 @ 1.90 $300 to win $270
Over 2.5 @ 1.95 $300 to win $285
Both teams to score @ 2.10 $200 to win $220
Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Derby
Goal Scorers: Tottenham, 2 Darren Bent, Jermaine Defoe Derby, Robert Earnshaw
 
Good luck with your plays Mike, any thoughts on Newcastle-Villa over? It seems like a good play to me, thinking of adding it
 
Wigan vs Sunderland
Wigan 2.30
Draw 3.25
Sunderland 3.00

Wigan are coming off a positive 1-0 result during the midweek. Sunderland had a thriller against new comers Birmingham in a 2-2 draw. Both sides know that getting the maximum points from either one will give them an added advantage in their fight to stay off the bottom half of the table. Wigan played very well against Middlesbrough, all in part to new boy Antoine Sibierski, however he has picked up a slight injury and i doubt he will be 100%. He will feature but that injury might only keep him the game for about 60mins. Sunderland has so far taken a very direct approach in the 2 games. Roy Keane has installed a very hard working team that doesn't seem to easily give up. Both games has provided late game dramatics so it might be an advantage for Sunderland here knowing some of the Wigan players are unfit and banged up. However, the Black Cats will miss midfielder Carlos Edwards so i think we can expect a little bit more tightness in the midfield and back. I still don't think Wigan are deserving to be favored the line seems a little off should be evens. Sunderland should be able to get at least a draw here or even better a win to really push them up the ladder. The Black Cats have a big game next when they host Liverpool, so there is added incentive winning at Wigan because they know the percentages of a victory here is greater than one against Liverpool.
Bet: Sunderland +0.25 @ 1.825 $200 to win $165
Prediction: Wigan 0-1 Sunderland
Goal scorers: Sunderland, Michael Chopra
 
Goal Scorers: Portsmouth, John Utaka,

utaka_john_pfc_profile_2007.jpg
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW MIKE!
 
as an insurance playing this

Portsmouth/Bolton Draw @ 4.50 $50 to win $175

The Pompey D is still a little shakey, and now that the over has hit i'm going to back it up just incase.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=440 border=0 contains="events" stage="812084"><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 3px; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cccccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 135px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cccccc 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e4ede5; TEXT-ALIGN: right">Portsmouth </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cccccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 35px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cccccc 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e4ede5; TEXT-ALIGN: center">3 : 1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cccccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 135px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cccccc 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e4ede5; TEXT-ALIGN: left"> Bolton</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

DONE!!
 
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle 1.90
Draw 3.30
Aston Villa 4.00

Two squads coached by two class managers clash at St James' Park. Sam Allardyce started his Newcastle debut with a 3-1 win over his former club. Martin O'Neill started his 2nd season with a home loss to Liverpool. Newcastle have been extremely busy on the transfer front whereas Aston Villa have been a lot more quiet then initially expected. I will try not to be bias on this game because of my support for Aston Villa, but i am a little concerned people are judging both team by their first game of the season. Villa faced title contenders Liverpool and were denied a point but an extremely world class free kick by Steven Gerrard that NO ONE would of been able to spot. Newcastle finally figured out how to score on the road even against Bolton who are now shaping up to be a crap team. So really we cannot predict teams from just one game. Villa will start on loan goalie Scott Carson for his first match of the season. Tommy Sorensen is still out with a hamstring injury while Taylor even though he would of been fit, is out with a calf strain. We should see the same squad that faced Liverpool. One problem Newcastle will have is the left wing which is primarily the one weak spot Villa have. Both Duff and Celestine Babayaro are out which means Allardyce will have to play someone out of their position, most likely James Milner. During the week, veteran right back Mark Delaney has decided to retire due to his long fight over injuries, this is a big blow to Villa's right back slot because they do not have a true right full back anymore, so Craig Gardner will not be tested to see if he can take that slot. Interesting battle in the midfield with Geremi and Butt vs Reo Coker and Barry. Both teams will want to attack as both the defenses are very questionable. Newcastle still does not have a proven Centre Back and they are also using 2nd choice keeper Steven Harper in place of the injured Shay Given. Attacking options, expect Michael Owen to be on the bench, he may have a part in the match later on but we'll most likely see Smith, Viduka, Martins upfront. For Villa they will also have 3 upfront but there will be questions as to whether or not Agbonlahor will play on the right. Carew will spearhead the attack, Young will control one of the flanks, but i would think it would be wise to use Shaun Maloney on either the left or right wings instead of Gabby. It doesn't seem like Newcastle will be a system play, the numbers are just under what is expected for me to play them at -0.5. I sense both teams will score this game without a doubt, it is obvious i would like Villa to win but with their past history at St. Jame's looking rather bleak i am rather wary of a positive outcome. One thing for certain though. Sam Allardyce loves playing games vs Villa and does tend to get the better of the Villans defense. During his time at Bolton, the last 10 games vs Aston Villa, there has only been 2 matches where there was a clean sheet. I expect the same situation to happen again, only this time, Newcastle have more offensive power and their defense is still below par. I think Villa have what it takes to compete offensively with Newcastle and might even sneak out a draw. I'm going to wait out 15mins before kick off to see if this turns out to be a system play for Newcastle. If it is then i'll lay off the handicap if not i'll play Aston Villa. UPDATE: Newcastle is a system play
Bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 $500 to win $500
Over 2.25 @ 1.95 $200 to win $190
Predicition: Newcastle 3-2 Aston Villa
Goal Scorers: Newcastle, Alan Smith, Geremi, Mark Viduka Aston Villa, John Carew, Gareth Barry
 
ugh sorry about the Fulham pick folks.....couldn't do anything after that McBridge goal, Boro seemed more interested in the 2H.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
ugh sorry about the Fulham pick folks.....couldn't do anything after that McBridge goal, Boro seemed more interested in the 2H.
Click to expand...
You post great stuff Mike, sorry when the payout doesn't follow.

Big bets can be a killler. I only do flatbetting. That way, your hitrate is all that counts, no losses are more bitter.

Still, I need at least a draw from Toons now to scrape out a winning day. I have them asian -1/4.

:cheers:
 
dont feel bad mike, i feel so bad about my birmingham pick, last time ill trust that fathead bruce
 
GL with Newcastle bro.... nice work and good calls on a couple of these; Fulham just didn't have what it took in the second half to eek one out...
 
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