DALLAS -3
***Game breakdown from Rafael Vela from theboysblog.com***
The old rivals finally meet this year when Dallas goes to Philadelphia for the teams third Sunday night game of the still-young season.
When Dallas Has the Ball
The Eagles beat Dallas twice last year using a fairly basic game plan. They double-teamed Terrell Owens, frustrating him and used a lot of stunting and twisting off four man rushes to frustrate Drew Bledsoe. In the second game, they saw that Tony Romo was even more dependent on Owens than Bledsoe and kept him off balance by taking his primary away. The Eagles then stopped Dallas with a goal line stand and played keep away the rest of the way, hammering the ball for over 200 yards on the ground.
The Cowboys played a version of the stunting, blitzing Jim Johnson scheme in week one. Then the Giants tried hitting Dallas with a lot of early blitzes off the edges. On third and long situations the Giants would line up in a 4-2-5 nickel, fake rushes by the linebackers and then bring corners and safeties off the slot.
Dallas destroyed these blitzes by stretching the field laterally and isolating Jason Witten on Giants linebackers.
Johnson does not blitz his secondary as much, preferring to bring linebackers. That said I think his approach will mirror last years — take Owens away and force Dallas to march methodically down the field on short and intermediate throws.
The Cowboys have shown the last two weeks that they can move the ball effectively this way, though they have shown a maddening tendency to bog down inside an opponents red zone, with turnovers being the main culprit.
When the Eagles go with their standard package the primary matchup to watch will be Eagles RE Trent Cole vs. LT Flozell Adams. The Eagles have 24 sacks on the year and Cole has 11 of them. Expect Adams to get lots of chip help from TEs and RBs to slow Cole down.
Also look for Dallas to attack through the air. The book on the Eagles in recent years was to hammer inside on them but they’ve become much more stout this season. Dallas will try hammering at the Eagles — they try this on everyone — but Jason Garrett’s tactics of late have been to throw first and run later. Since the Eagles have more trouble stopping the pass than the run, I look for this strategy to continue.
When Romo does throw look for a more Eagles-like approach, something we saw against New England and Minnesota — throw a lot more to running backs, fullbacks and tight ends. Against New York, Garrett showed a lot of three WR sets and would send backs in motion. If the Eagles want to double Owens in these situations or blitz, Dallas will get one on one matchups and should be able to exploit them, especially in the middle of the field.
When Philadelphia Has the Ball
This week should offer the chance to see the Dallas defense at full strength for the first time this year. CB Anthony Henry is practicing again and Greg Ellis has shown that he still knows how to reach the passer.
Dallas will face an Eagles offense that is rounding back to health. Philadelphia was crippled by line injuries, most notably LT William Thomas’ leg injury. TE L.J. Smith has been the only holdout the last couple of weeks and his return would give the Eagles a full deck.
Some things never change, however and this is Brian Westbrook’s team. He’s the teams leading rusher and leading receiver. The Eagles love the screen and it will a challenge for Dallas not to get caught out of position, as Wade Phillips loves to blitz 5 men as a default.
The Eagles passing game is okay, but lacks the consistent firepower to really scare an opponent. Kevin Curtis has provided a deep threat to complement Reggie Brown, but almost 40% of his 582 receiving yards came in one game. The Cowboys have been good at preventing the deep pass this year and if Curtis does not break free for a 60 yard bomb the Eagles will have to grind downfield in methodical fashion as well, which will give the rush more chances to force a Donovan McNabb miscue.
Summary:
The Eagles are only 1-2 at home this year. They’ve only topped 16 points twice this campaign. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have yet to be held to less than 24 in a game. Philly’s last home match saw Brian Griese rip them for 333 yards. He drove his Bears 90+ yards in the final moments for the win. That’s not the type of Eagles game we’ve seen in recent years. Philadelphia is a slow starting team, but we’re at the halfway point now. I think some trends are starting to harden.
Turnovers will again tell the tale. If Dallas holds on to the football, they’ll have an excellent chance to keep their mojo working. If they handle it the way they did against Minnesota, we’ll all have a frustrating evening. Nobody this side of New England has derailed the Cowboys yet, so while I’m wary of the Eagles and playing in their park, I’m sticking with the streaks:
Dallas 24, Philadelphia 16.
