Echopark Automotive Grand Prix Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Echopark Automotive Grand Prix Preview and Free Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Echopark Automotive Grand Prix
Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas

Race Info

This has been a pretty weird start to the NASCAR season.

After Chase Briscoe of all people won in Phoenix, William Byron earned his third career win by defeating the field last week in Atlanta.

You slowly begin to wonder: when will the big names start to take over?

In any case, the season hasn't been totally weird.

We can rest assured that Byron won't win this week's race as well just like we knew that Briscoe wouldn't also win in Atlanta.

It is very hard, even for the best driver, to win back-to-back races.

So, we can rule out Byron from our list of candidates to win this week.

For this Sunday's race, drivers must complete a total of 68 laps.

As has always been the case, there will be a total of three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires the drivers to complete 15 laps.

Stage 2 terminates after the 32nd lap.

Stage 3 consists in the next last 36 laps.

The entry list has been published by now. There are 39 teams/drivers listed for 40 spots.

So, barring any really weird circumstances, we already know which drivers will participate in this race. You can expect all the familiar faces.

As for the starting lineup, there will be qualifying after the practice session.

Drivers will have their practice session on Saturday, March 26 at 10 a.m. That will last for an hour.

At 11 a.m. on the same day, drivers will have a slightly different qualifying session. This time, qualifying will be multi-vehicle. It will be two rounds.

This week's starting lineup will be decided by qualifying.

Track Info

This is the second time ever that the NASCAR Cup Series is staging a race at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas.

So, at least in one sense, this is still a fairly new course for drivers.

This track has so few laps because one lap requires 3.4 miles.

So, in completing 68 laps, drivers will have amassed 231.2 miles.

There are 20 turns per lap and elevation will change more than 100 feet over the course of a single lap.

Since this is a road course, banking won't be a thing like in the previous races that have taken place on more traditional NASCAR surfaces.

Drivers I Dislike

Stats are radically skewed for this race because drivers have only raced here a single time.

So, well-known guys like Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick find themselves statistically at the bottom because they did not finish the one race that took place here.

Those guys are not among the guys I dislike.

Instead, I want to focus on fading Brad Keselowski who ended a streak of three top-20 races this season to finish 12th at Atlanta.

More importantly, in 31 tries, he has never won a road race in his career.

His average finishing position in this kind of race is a relatively awful 15.42.

My Guy

Chase Elliott is typically the guy that bettors will blindly invest in to win a road race.

But there are other guys as well who have strong road racing numbers.

One such guy is Kyle Larson who has three wins and six top five finishes at road courses.

Among the historically best road course racers, Larson clearly has shown the highest ceiling this year, winning at California and finishing second at Las Vegas.

Best Bet: Larson to Win (Odds TBA)
 
I'll be really interested to see the pricing on Larson vs Chase. Imo KL has surpassed him as King of the Road courses.

Cindric is one I'll be invested on this week. Had a strong showing on this race last year.
 
Are there actually passes in a Nascar GP? I see it often in F1 and Indy but anytime I've ever turned a Nascar event on it doesn't seem like there is any change of places.
 
I'll be really interested to see the pricing on Larson vs Chase. Imo KL has surpassed him as King of the Road courses.

Cindric is one I'll be invested on this week. Had a strong showing on this race last year.
DK has Chase -115 v Larson -105
 
I think Cindric, Briscoe, Chastain, and Allmendinger all are live this week. McDowell as well.
 
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I bet these on Thursday for the Xfinity race later today:

0.5 unit:

Brandon Jones -120 versus Riley Herbst (BAS)
(Jones did not practice or quality and I do not know the reason. Due to this, he will start 38th. For some reason when BAS put his odds back up today, he is now -135, which does not make sense. I would probably not bet it at that price since it was just a 0.5 unit play anyway.)

1.0 unit:

Myatt Snider -115 versus Brett Moffitt (BAS)

I don't follow the truck series, but Kyle Busch is -150 or so to win against the field. Sheldon Creed was fast in practice and in qualifying and is around +750 to win.
 
I bet these on Thursday for the Xfinity race later today:

0.5 unit:

Brandon Jones -120 versus Riley Herbst (BAS)
(Jones did not practice or quality and I do not know the reason. Due to this, he will start 38th. For some reason when BAS put his odds back up today, he is now -135, which does not make sense. I would probably not bet it at that price since it was just a 0.5 unit play anyway.)

1.0 unit:

Myatt Snider -115 versus Brett Moffitt (BAS)

I don't follow the truck series, but Kyle Busch is -150 or so to win against the field. Sheldon Creed was fast in practice and in qualifying and is around +750 to win.
His car died on the track like 1st lap of practice.
 
Kyle Busch has been a bit more vulnerable in the truck series his last few starts, mainly teammate JHN getting the best of him. But on this road course, I don't see him losing. Not worth -150 though.
 
Also Creed has to start from the rear.
Thanks for letting me know that. Not as interesting if he has to come through the field.

Let me know if you ever see anything worth betting in the Truck series. I don't follow it or the drivers, but I did watch some of the race last week and it was entertaining.
 
Thanks for letting me know that. Not as interesting if he has to come through the field.

Let me know if you ever see anything worth betting in the Truck series. I don't follow it or the drivers, but I did watch some of the race last week and it was entertaining.
I like fading Matty D. He's in a crap truck. Starting from the back today too. But they've adjusted accordingly on his prices.
 
His car died on the track like 1st lap of practice.
Ok, so they had to repair the car or go to a backup. Either way, he is a better road course driver than Herbst. Herbst qualified 22, so he is not that far ahead of Jones.
 
Hill -110 over Berry
Chastain -115 over Bubba for the Xfinity race.
Won both.

Nice pick with Hill. Tell me about him. I assume you know him from the truck series.

I assumed he was just a good superspeedway racer based on the Xfinity season so far.
 
Won both.

Nice pick with Hill. Tell me about him. I assume you know him from the truck series.

I assumed he was just a good superspeedway racer based on the Xfinity season so far.
Basically a fade of Berry. Berry is only full time this year. He never ran on a road course before.

Hill has plenty of road course races from his time in the truck series.
 
I bet these on Thursday for the Xfinity race later today:

0.5 unit:

Brandon Jones -120 versus Riley Herbst (BAS)
(Jones did not practice or quality and I do not know the reason. Due to this, he will start 38th. For some reason when BAS put his odds back up today, he is now -135, which does not make sense. I would probably not bet it at that price since it was just a 0.5 unit play anyway.)

1.0 unit:

Myatt Snider -115 versus Brett Moffitt (BAS)

I don't follow the truck series, but Kyle Busch is -150 or so to win against the field. Sheldon Creed was fast in practice and in qualifying and is around +750 to win.

Nice call on these. I think Herbst was ahead of Jones on the last lap and idk what happened but Jones ended up ahead.
 
Nice call on these. I think Herbst was ahead of Jones on the last lap and idk what happened but Jones ended up ahead.
Yeah, I got lucky with Jones. He was 3 spots and over a second back with 1 lap left then the ticker had Herbst 26th. I assume Herbst ran off the course on the last lap, but did not wreck since he only lost 8 or 10 spots.

Snider barely held on.
 
I bet these on Thursday for the Xfinity race later today:

0.5 unit:

Brandon Jones -120 versus Riley Herbst (BAS)
(Jones did not practice or quality and I do not know the reason. Due to this, he will start 38th. For some reason when BAS put his odds back up today, he is now -135, which does not make sense. I would probably not bet it at that price since it was just a 0.5 unit play anyway.)

1.0 unit:

Myatt Snider -115 versus Brett Moffitt (BAS)

I don't follow the truck series, but Kyle Busch is -150 or so to win against the field. Sheldon Creed was fast in practice and in qualifying and is around +750 to win.
+1.5 units on the day.

COTA:
Xfinity +1.5 units
Cup ????

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +5.8 units
Cup +25.54 units
Both +31.34 units
 
I played these at DK for tomorrow:

2 units:

Chastain Top 10 -110

1 unit:

McDowell -130 over Bubba

0.5 unit:

Kurt Busch Top Toyota +700
 
Cindric -108 Allmendinger

Hamlin -113 Truex

Logano-118 Allmendinger

Bubba -108 Gilliland

Don’t do a lot of nascar but felt like gambling today. I always appreciate y’all’s work in these threads. Ice them down and win money
 
Cindric -108 Allmendinger

Hamlin -113 Truex

Logano-118 Allmendinger

Bubba -108 Gilliland

Don’t do a lot of nascar but felt like gambling today. I always appreciate y’all’s work in these threads. Ice them down and win money
Good luck today Capt. Like those alot. Thats actually a Bubba matchup I would play. Lol.
 
Hard to find good matchups, I played these:

2 units:

Chastain Top 10 -110 (DK)
McDowell -130 over Bubba (DK)

1 unit:

Allmendinger -105 over Bell (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Kurt Busch Top Toyota +700 (DK)

0.4 unit:

Suarez Top 3 +500 (BM)
 
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McDowell, Allmendinger, and Hand to the rear. Two guys that I bet on.

I wanted to bet on Suarez and Kurt Busch but I cannot find any good matchups with them.
 
McDowell, Allmendinger, and Hand to the rear. Two guys that I bet on.

I wanted to bet on Suarez and Kurt Busch but I cannot find any good matchups with them.
I was just gonna post this. I think on a road course it's tougher to drive your way up through the field. Not impossible though.
 
My only Suarez prop is vs Jones and he's -200.
Yeah, that is all that I could find.

Kurt is matched up against all of the young drivers having good seasons, Briscoe, Chastain, and Reddick

I had to find other ways to bet them.
 
I was just gonna post this. I think on a road course it's tougher to drive your way up through the field. Not impossible though.
McDowell going to the rear is not that bad, he qualified 27th. As long as he gets by all of the Rick Ware type cars without getting wrecked, he will be ok.
 
Hard to find good matchups, I played these:

2 units:

Chastain Top 10 -110 (DK)
McDowell -130 over Bubba (DK)

1 unit:

Allmendinger -105 over Bell (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Kurt Busch Top Toyota +700 (DK)

0.4 unit:

Suarez Top 3 +500 (BM)
I added these:

Kurt Busch -150 over Harvick (DK) 0.5 units
Logano -115 over Byron (BAS) 1.0 units

So I have the following:

2 units:

Chastain Top 10 -110 (DK)
McDowell -130 over Bubba (DK)

1 unit:

Allmendinger -105 over Bell (BAS)
Logano -115 over Byron (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Kurt Busch -150 over Harvick (DK)
Kurt Busch Top Toyota +700 (DK)

0.4 unit:

Suarez Top 3 +500 (BM)
 
I added these:

Kurt Busch -150 over Harvick (DK) 0.5 units
Logano -115 over Byron (BAS) 1.0 units

So I have the following:

2 units:

Chastain Top 10 -110 (DK)
McDowell -130 over Bubba (DK)

1 unit:

Allmendinger -105 over Bell (BAS)
Logano -115 over Byron (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Kurt Busch -150 over Harvick (DK)
Kurt Busch Top Toyota +700 (DK)

0.4 unit:

Suarez Top 3 +500 (BM)
All of that for 0.15 units. It looked a lot better before the final few turns.

COTA:
Xfinity +1.5 units
Cup 0.15

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +5.8 units
Cup +25.54 units
Both +31.49 units
 
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