I'm not sure that I can agree that spread won't make the difference.
If Pacers will start strong and Wade and Bosh will be mediocre - and there is a very good chance it will be the case, LeBron can try and take over and win the game by himself and managing to do so, but not covering the spread.
Overall, I would feel much better as Pacers backer here than Heat backer. The spread means that if you take the Heat, you need to believe in a blowout and win by 10 - 15 points at least.
Pacers won easily Game 6, despite every sign going against them. Heat shot incredible behind the arc. I doubt they will shoot this way again. West was sick and started with 0 from 7 and again, he can be much more dominant. Pacers outplayed Heat absolutely at HT, but missed a lot of really easy shots and still, after amazing half, trailed by a point.
Stephenson - Pacers x factor for this series, was terrible on offense and while Hill made enough points for the entire backcourt, I can easily see him showing up tonight.
I can add that Pacers bench was non existent and while I doubt if will change in Game 7, it means that Pacers can repeat the easy win from Game 6.
As for the Heat, Game 6 proved few things in my mind:
1) Spoelstra is outcoached and simply can't find the answers and makes a lot of mistakes.
2) LeBron can't win by himself against the Pacers
3) The moment that refs gave Pacers small edge calling wise, it was a blow out.
4) Defense can't win against the Pacers - Joel did great job in the paint on defense, but when Heat failed to score, they simply couldn't do anything right. Heat can win only via offense and it's a problem when you face the best team on defense in your Conference.
5) Spoelstra admitted that Heat weren't built right in the summer. They went with the concept of playing Bosh and LeBron as 4 & 5 or even Bron as 5 and around him shooters - Allen and Lewis were brought for their three point shooting skills. Last year, they won against Indiana by going small and forcing Hibbert to guard a small player and caused him to get in foul trouble. Last 4 games, Spoelstra playing big with usually two big man in the paint.
Should be great game and I'm holding my fingers crossed for the Pacers to win this one!