EC Finals game 3

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Playoffs: 20-13-1, 58.82%

I pissed away 12.5 units on a keystroke mistake a couple weeks ago, and I'm up cash again in this playoff gig. hurray!

alright, simple math.

In Detroit the lines were -6 and -5.5. Now, okay, the pistons didn't cover, but those were soem ugly fucking games from the pistons...they're just clutch in the 4th, and the Cavs blow goats (and David Stern's Penis if you're Lebron).

Those games were an exercise in defensive domination, and I expect to see the same out of the pistons in Game 3. In the ingame, the question was asked many times (essentially):

how is it that the Cavs can look so good in the 2nd Q and not in the rest of the game.

The answer is simple. They didn't look good. It's just that in the 2nd Q some of those jackass shots they were tossing up actually went down, they got a few lucky and opportunistic offensive rebounds, and there were a couple Sideshow Bob cuts to the rim that gave them a few points.

Once the crazy outside jumpers stopped dropping in the 2nd, the Pistons started covering the sideshow a tad better on the cavs "go-to play", and Bron got even MORE frustrated, they could do absolutely nothing. 3 of those 13 3rd Q points were a lucky-ass 3pter by Marshall at the end of the shotclock when it should have been Pistons ball.......at least that's how I saw it.

Sideshow won't get 14 and 14 again. If Jones wants to prove he's the best shooter in the NBA...that's fine. I'll take it (he shot 38.5% from 3 this season and 37.7 last season). In last season's playoffs he hit 5 of 18. I'll also take Donyell Marshall shooting 3s...he missed a wide-open 3 at the end of the the 4th Q in game 1. Jackass has GOT to hit that, and he just isn't clutch. He hit 35.1% from 3pt land in the season, and he hit 32.4% last season.

If this team would RUN RUN RUN, then they might have a chance, but Detroit won't let them. Period. Detroit takes it down low and makes them defend too hard. They make buckets, and they get back on defense. Nash can run the pick and roll with Amare in late transition or early set D......no one on the Cavs can do that. Every time Lebron tries one of those Nash baseline passes, Rip, Tayshaun, or Murray grab it.

Lebron may get his 20 again, but he won't get 10 assists........and he's going to try. Drew Gooden should be another non-issue, and Z is just too damned slow to be a problem for the stones.

In short, I think the Pistons are the much better team, and I think there's at least 2.5 points of value at 3.5 (or 4 at bookmaker), and I think the ML is more than valuable as I figure on at least a 50% chance the Pistons win outright.

only thing working against me is how much david stern likes Lebron's blowjobs.

:pillow:

Pistons +3.5 (+106) 2 units
Pistons +160 2 units

Good luck gentlemen.
 
I can ensure you we won't see a flat Pistons 1H like games 1 and 2. Being on the road, they know the importance of coming out from "Jump Street".
 
that's one of the things I'm hoping for. My thinking is that the Pistons get out to a significant lead and the foul..ahem.....differential......lets the Cavs get back in and lose respectably instead of just outright GIVING a game to them...

we shall see.
 
I agree with Believe. Detroit comes out strong... but Cleveland is going to win this one. Bron, Sideshow, and the other Cavs players will definitely step up in front of the home crowd.

I won't be surprised if Sheed is called for some early fouls and he eventually fouls out. The "make-up" calls for games 1 and 2 will be coming in favor of Cleveland.

Cleveland wins, covers, and the score hits over as the fg% of Cleveland goes off the charts in game 3!!!
 
see, I don't think Cleveland got hosed by foul no-calls.

I think they were very physical games wherein the guys beat the shit out of each other...and especially in the last minute, they were just letting them play.

You may be right that the FG% goes off the chart for them, but I do wonder which performance the Cavs gave vs the Pistons that leads you to believe that...

DATE DAY AWAY PTS HOME PTS HOMELINE ATS TOTAL OU FG% EDGE REB EDGE 3PT EDGE

05/24/2007 Thu CLE 76 DET 79 -5½ CLE 174½ U DET CLE Push
05/21/2007 Mon CLE 76 DET 79 -6½ CLE 177 U DET CLE DET
04/08/2007 Sun CLE 82 DET 87 -5½ CLE 181½ U CLE CLE DET
03/07/2007 Wed CLE 101 DET 97 -5 CLE 179 O CLE CLE Push
02/04/2007 Sun DET 90 CLE 78 -2½ DET 183½ U DET DET DET
12/21/2006 Thu DET 87 CLE 71 -3½ DET 185 U DET DET Push
 
This game is in a weird place. Detroit is obviously the better team. There is no question about that. But the public bettors and David Stern will be on the same side come this game.

No way does the league want Cleveland to get swept. No way, no how.

So what do you do? Do you play the better team or do you play the conspiracy angle which just so happens to involve home court and what has to be a desperate team?

I personally think you stay off a side.

I do agree with Red, the only value in the side is with Detroit. Somehow home court here is an eight point swing? So, what, on a neutral court the Pistons would be a -1? Excuse me while I run to the window.

The problem with betting the Cavs is both that you're betting the inferior team and that you need a bad team to make plays. The odds are simply against you.

Don't get me wrong, this game is the perfect spot for it, because if it doesn't happen now it won't happen at all.

But asking bad players to make plays to beat a good team is a bet I never want to make in any sport.

All that aside, I'm still interested in the over.

First, I think you're going to see Cleveland go to the line a lot in this game. LeBron in particular. I also think they're going to try to push it some. They have to.

Red's right, Detroit's defense is just that good, but that doesn't mean you don't try, and if you're dumb enough to slow it into a half-court game, you might as well start reserving tee times.

No plays for me yet, and I wish you luck, Red, it's the value side, really the right side, only sometimes in the NBA that just doesn't matter.
 
the style of officiating favors detroit. they can body lebron which = pistons win almost every time imo.

however, lebron and mike brown seemed a lil unhappy bout how things were going on in the interview following the game. their body langauge said that they were frustrated. so will the style of officiating change with the change in venues?

if it becomes a tighter called game i favor the cavs more than i do the stons. and vice versa.

who knows.
 
great thoughts red/Joe...

Gonna be interesting...no play for me...

got burned by the weirdness of game 4 last year..ain;t falling for it this year...

Value is with DET...but cannot predict what Stern has up his sleeve..plus great HCA for cAVS IN PLAYOFFS...

WHATS THEIR MINDSET....SO many questions
 
Thanks, BAR.

You hit it. It's hard to 'cap those strange, mysterious things that seem to happen in the NBA playoffs. Like when the Lakers would shoot 34 free throws to the other team's eight, or whatever.

I do think the reffing will change some here, but I think the Cavs will change a bit, too.

The problem, aside from the Cavs being a bad basketball team, is that they're a bad basketball team without much heart either.

So even if they do get a lead late, it's a huge question as to whether or not they can hold it.
 
I hear you Joe. I was just figuring on a pick here.......-3.5 strikes me as asinine high so I'm hopping on it.

I understand contrary opinions. Home team is a big deal...especially for game 3. But the Cavs have given up...they're not hopeful gong home like the Jazz are.

They know they're beatable at home.....the Jazz think they should win. I think the Cavs know they had 2 opportunities with the pistons playing, frankly, poorly......and now if the pistons play well, they really ought to know they have no chance.

just my opinion. The Cavs think they're already beaten.
 
I actually totally agree with you, Red.

The only reason I won't join you is my left-wing nutball brain sees the potential for conspiracy theory bulls**t going down.

But you're betting the better team, there is no debate about that, and you're getting value with them, so I think it's a great play.
 
I see the validity of your point Red and I do agree that Stons are the better team. Even if the Stons play lousy ball at times, Cavs can't seem to get it together themselves and they've wasted opportunities to win at least one game in Detroit.

I agree with JP in saying that you're betting on the better team with the added points. If that's not value, I don't know what is. Looks like the right play in this game but we've seen it a countless times, the right play gets moosed one way or another. Don't have any plays yet in the game, and I doubt if I will, but I do have the Cavs to win the Eastern Conference and the NBA Championship so that really is affecting my judgement.

Great points from everyone in this thread!!!
 
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Detroit is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
 
That's what I think. What others think might be different. I think it ought to be much closer to a pk.
 
The Pistons historically in game # 3's during the playoffs have not been that strong...especially when they are up 2-0 in the series...and on the road...I think my play tomorrow is gonna be CLE...still undecided.:smiley_acbe:
 
Its funny how people think the Cavs get calls. You can't possibly be watching the games then. Lebron is getting beat up everytime he goes to the lane but I am sure its just "physical" defense LOL. Cavs should be 1-1 or even 2-0 in this series and should have no problem beating up a team they have outplayed both games. The pistons are the better team but right now the Cavs are outplaying them and should continue to do so just like last year until game 7. The pub will continue to ride the Pistons giving the Cavs great value the rest of the way
 
Its funny how people think the Cavs get calls.

I don't they 'are' getting them, I believe they 'will' get them in Game Three.

Second, I disagree with Brewer. I don't think you ever have to be careful about voicing your opinion around here. I don't think that is the point of the place. Now, if you want to be a prick and pick fights, or be a flaming racist or something like that, then, yeah, you might consider somewhere else. But an opinion on a game is what I thought this place was about.

Last, CB brings up a good point, the Cavs should at least be 1-1 in this series right now, they could be up 2-0. But that is the fundamental problem. They know they should be 1-1 or 2-0 and they're not. That takes a huge toll on a team's psyche, especially when they know the team they're playing is a good one.

I'm not saying Cleveland is going to lose tomorrow, or that they'll win, just that with the line where it is, I see zero value in the Cavs based on how this series has gone and where their heads have to be at.

They've proven that they can't hold a lead, they've proven that they crumble under pressure, so given that I think it leaves the backdoor swinging wide open in this game.

But, of course, that's exactly when a team wins by 10 for fun because the NBA is "unpredictable."
 
sportsladyd said:
The Pistons historically in game # 3's during the playoffs have not been that strong...especially when they are up 2-0 in the series...and on the road...I think my play tomorrow is gonna be CLE...still undecided.:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

I respect your opinions, so I don't like this particular disagreement....heh. And what you say is certainly true. But I think it's not so much the case this year.

Detroit layed the wood on Chicago in the second half of game 3 in that series, and...well, I won't mention Orlando. They were just bad by the end of the season, and there really was nothing that bunch could do. I will mention them. 93-77.......wowsers. The stones went 8 of 13 from 3 pt land and hit 17 of 23 FTs while the Magic made 12 of 21...this includes 4 tech FTs...Pistons hit 43% and Magic hit 41%......hardly the greatest of shooting by them (cept from 3pt), but the stifling defense...the hard defense...the playoff winning defense - that was DEFINITELY there.

I think this year's Detroit team understands that tendency you mention, and I think they know they actually didn't play all that well in games 1 and 2. In short, I don't think they're complacent or that they think the championship will be hand-delivered to them like they seemed to think last year. Sheed is healthy this year (again, unlike last year), and he's gotten some of that demonstrative technical foul glue out of his system....some. At the end of game 2 when that offensive foul was called on him, last year and the year before he would've lost his mind, his shit, and gotten tossed with brown drawers and the opposing team going to the line to take a lead and the ball.

Not so this year. His jaw dropped in abject disbelief for a moment, then he shut up, tossed the ball to a ref, and went down to play defense. This is the sort of thing I see in Detroit this year...and not just that one instance.

Maybe Lebron did get fouled at the end of Game 2, but if so there were fouls all over the place. I commend the refs for calling a consistent brutal game the whole way through. They didn't start calling touch fouls in the last 3 minutes. It was great playoff basketball, and the refs didn't fuck it up. Ultimately, I think, Brown and Lebron know deep down that they simply didn't get it done, and to rail at the refs not making *that* call is like bitching about being served too many drinks the night before after you wet the bed. It was the cavs who failed - brown's technical foul pretty much sealed their fate. If the cavs were waiting for the officials to save their asses, then that's expecting to play 8 on 5 bball, and the pistons know better than to ever expect that. The pistons know they better fucking get it done. Lebron will learn that you don't fade away and hope for a foul there...you plow through and MAKE them call an offensive foul on you if anything.

Now, maybe you say, "redbearde had the stones so of course he thinks that"...but I had the stones 2nd half -7, and that wasn't in doubt since the 3rd quarter. I'm also not really an NBA fan to begin with, and that does help with some objectivity.

boy have I run on....

good health to you if you take the cavs. After all, I could be completely wrong.
 
brewer said:
careful voicing that opinion around here, its not a shared one.
Click to expand...

BAR was irritated that someone would declare an obvious travel to be not a travel. Sideshow shuffled both pivot feet. That's a travel.

If you want to say your team got hosed with the officiating, that's fine. But understand you're saying that the Detroit Pistons had the benefit of officiating help, and that, on its face, is rather silly. Sheed and Rip lead the league in techs. Detroit was called for 16 fouls and Cleveland was called for 18. That includes the last second possession foul. Cleveland made 10 FTs (15 attempted) to detroit making 9 FTs (19 attempted).

The cavs had several opportunities to win that game by finishing their offense or simply be executing a play or two (Boobie even had that wide-open 6 foot jumper he missed at the 3 secs left), and they simply didn't do it...just like Marshall missing that wide-open 3 at the end of game 1. If you're going to win in the playoffs, you have GOT to finish those plays. Cavs can't or won't...not sure which, but it ain't the officiating that's causing them to lose.

:shake:
 
So, Red, take this for what it's worth but I talked to a friend of mine in D-Town tonight.

I can't say he knows any more about the Pistons than BAR or anything, but he's basically followed them very closely since he's been there the last five years or so. His company has tickets to all the playoff games and he's a pretty knowledgable guy about the team and the game.

He feels the series only goes five, maybe six if the Cavs get lucky or Detroit mails in more than one game. But he feels that tomorrow is the game Detroit doesn't show up for. That this is the one, consistently, where they just take the day off. His words, "Just watch, that's Pistons' basketball, they'll lose by like 20. Then they'll win Game Four and beat 'em back here by like 20 to finish the series."

Again, it's just one guy's opinion, but hearing somebody who follows the team pretty closely say that tomorrow's the game they take off--combined with how much we all know the NBA wants this thing to be a series . . .

Well, it makes me think anyway.
 
I hear ya...conversely, I just read *my* favorite fade in the pbox has claimed he laid

11,000 oreos to win 10,000 oreos on Cavs -3.5

imagine my glee!
 
in any event, I don't load up on games. I happen to like this one a lot, but I have a standard number of quatloos I put on a dog (ML & Spread if I think it might be a last second sort of game), and that's all I'm doing.

:shake:

In response to your friend, I would point to the other detroit games 3 this season as opposed to other seasons.
 
Good point. And any time you've got a good fade on the other side, that's got to make you feel good.

The reality is, this guy's comments only make me think, but they don't change my opinion that all the value is on Detroit tomorrow.

I'll have to fight the urge to play it, though, because I don't trust the NBA.

I like the over to be honest. I think they get the over here that they refused to get in Game Two mostly thanks to free throws.
 
honestly.......and don't tell nobody.........I kinda like that over as well.

Where the hell is that number now? 172...?

geesh...
 
as far as not wanting to play it....just put $5 on whatever. No big deal (I'm assuming, here), but it'll make it somewhat fun to watch.

and if the game turns into 8 on 5 like the Cavs seem to demand and expect, then you're only out 5 bucks.
 
Yeah, that's good advice.

And, honestly, if I were a gambling Joe I might put odds on me breaking down playing that total tomorrow.

Have a good night.

=)
 
You do the same. Seems my fade typed in this for his wager:

110000 to win 10,0000

...oreos of course.

so now the big question is...are we on a super mega ABSOLUTE L0cK GOY, yo...

or just a super ABSOLUTE GOY....

you know, I may win and I may lose......but some of the things one sees online are just beyond the comprehension of anyone with a positive IQ...
 
Thanks red. I think they score a ton in the 1st half then tone down but still get the over by around 2-3 points. well hopefully. lol
 
I can easily see a 96-94 sort of game either way tomorrow.

Or the Stones blow em out. 102-74.

Aren't I nice?
 
well, that shit went pretty much how I thought it would except lebron made that insane fadeaway 3pt shot and the pistons couldn't get a rebound at all in the last minute.

Oh well. Win some lose some.
 
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