early PGA Championship discussion

LeRinkRat

LeRinkRat

Pretty much a regular
August 9th thru 12th @ Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis, Missouri

current favorites:
Dustin Johnson 10-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Jordan Spieth 12-1
Tiger Woods 16-1
Justin Thomas 16-1
Rickei Fowler 18-1
Justin Rose 18-1 (WD from WGC-Bridgestone due to back spasms)


late qualifiers: odds & history
Byeong Hun An 150-1 (T-2nd Canadian Open. solo 2nd Memorial)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 150-1 (T-5th BMW PGA. WIN Super 6 Perth)
Daniel Berger 100-1
Alex Bjork 300-1 (WIN China Open. T-8th Open de France. T-3rd Trophee Hassan)
Thomas Bjorn 1000-1 (geezer Euro Ryder Cup captain)
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100-1
Jorge Campillo 300-1 (solo 3rd Irish Open. T-5th Open de Espana. T-3rd China Open. 2nd Maybank)
Kevin Chappell 100-1 (T-6th British Open)
Stewart Cink 200-1 (T-2nd Travelers)
Jason Dufner 125-1
Paul Dunne 200-1 (solo 2nd Open de Espana)
Tony Finau 50-1
Ross Fisher 250-1 (solo 2nd Abu Dhabi. T-8th BMW PGA)
Matthew Fitzpatrick 150-1
Tommy Fleetwood 28-1 T-12th British Open. solo 2nd US Open. WIN Abu Dhabi)
Ryan Fox 150-1 (solo 2nd Irish Open-playoff. T-8th Italian Open. T-3rd Maybank)
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
Jim Furyk 250-1 (geezer USA Ryder Cup captain)
Brian Yag 300-1
Branden Grace 60-1 (T5th BMW PGA. T-3rd Byron Nelson)
Emiliano Grillo 125-1
Bill Haas 200-1
Chesson Hadley 200-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
Seungsu Han 500-1
Justin Harding 150-1
Padraid Harrington 250-1
Tyrrell Hatton 100-1 (T-9th Scottish Open. T-6th US Open. Y-3rd WGC-Mexico. solo 3rd Dubai Desert Classic)
Russell Henley 150-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
J.B. Holmes (T-2nd Travelers)
Beau Hossler 150-1 (T-2nd Travelers)
Charles Howell III 200-1
Yuta Ikeda
Sungjae Im 500-1
Shugo Imahira 500-1
Martin Kaymer 150-1 (T-2nd BMW International)
Si Woo Kim 200-1 (solo 2nd RBC Heritage)
Michael Kim 300-1 (WIN John Deere)
Whee Kim 500-1 (T-2nd Canadian Open)
Russell Knox 150-1 (WIN Irish Open-playoff. T-2nd Open de France)
Mikko Korhonen 300-1 (WIN Shot Clock Masters - Austria)
Anirban Lahiri 250-1
Alex Levy 250-1 (WIN Trophee Hassan)
Hao Tong Li 150-1 (WIN Dubai Desert Classic)
Luke List 150-1
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 250-1
Jamie Lovemark 200-1
Shane Lowry 200-1
Yusaku Miyazato 300-1
Troy Merritt 300-1 (WIN Barbasol)
Kevin Na 150-1 (WIN Greenbrier)
Joaquin Niemann 80-1
Alex Noren 40-1 (WIN Open de France)
Thorbjorn Olesen 150-1 (WIN Italian Open)
Adrian Otaegui (WIN Belgian Knockout)
Eddie Pepperell 500-1 (T-6th British Open. solo 2nd Scottish Open. WIN Qatar Masters)
Thomas Pieters 80-1
Chez Reavie 200-1
Ollie Schniederjans 250-1
Charl Schwartzel 125-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Shubhankar Sharma 300-1 (WIN Joberg Open. WIN Maybank)
Cameron Smith 200-1
Brandt Snedeker 100-1
J.J. Spaun 300-1
Kyle Stanley 150-1
Brandon Stone 300-1 (WIN Irish Open)
Andy Sullivan 200-1
Julian Suri 200-1 (T-2nd Open de France)
Ryuko Tokimatsu 1000-1
Peter Uihlein 150-1
Jhonattan Vegas 300-1
Matt Wallace 300-1 (WIN Indian Open. WIN BMW International)
Nick Watney 250-1
Lee Westwood 150-1
Chris Wood 200-1 (T-2nd Open de France)


last year @ Quail Hollow, Charlotte, NC
winner: Justin Thomas [-8]
T-2nd: Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed & Louis Oosthuizen [-6]
T-5th Rickie Fowler & Hideki Matsuyama [-5]
T-7th Graham DeLaet & Kevin Kisner (3rd round leader) [-4]
T-9th: Matt Kuchar, Jordan L Smith & Chris Stroud [-1]
T-13th: Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Ryan Moore, Brian Harman, James Hahn, Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey & Scott Brown [even]
 
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my "to win" mostly "cats & dogs" picks so far as of Friday August 3rd (bet/return)

John Rahm 25-1 (40/1040)
Tommy Fleetwood 28-1 (40/1160)
Francesco Molinari 33-1 (30/1020)
Alex Noren 40-1 (25/1025)
Xander Schauffele 50-1 (20/1020)
Tony Finau 50-1 (20/1050)
Bryson DeChambeau 60-1 (17/1037)
Zack Johnson 80-1 (12.50/1012.50)
Ian Poulter 100-1 (10/1010) press (5/505)
Thorbjorn Olesen 150-1 (7/1057)
Ryan Fox 150-1 (7/1057)
Byeong-Hun An 150-1 (7/1057)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 150-1 (7/1057)
Kevin Na 150-1 (7/1057)
Russell Knox 150-1 (7/1057)
Luke List 150-1 (7/1057)
Haotong Li 150-1 (7/1057)
Kevin Na 150-1 (7/1057)
Julian Suri 200-1 (5/1005)
Paul Dunne 200-1 (5/1005)
Chris Wood 200-1 (5/1005)
Anirban Lahiri 250-1 (4/1004)
Austin Cook 250-1 (4/1004)
Ross Fisher 250-1 (4/1004)
Michael Kim 300-1 (4/1204)
Shubhankar Sharma 300-1 (4/1204)
Andrew Landry 300-1 (3.35/1008.35)
Jordan L Smith 300-1 (3.35/1008.35)
Matt Wallace 300-1 (4/1204)
Jorge Campillo 300-1 (4/1204)
Alex Bjork 300-1 (4/1204)
Adrain Otaugui 300-1 (4/1204)
Brandon Stone 300-1 (4/1204)
Whee Kim 500-1 (2/1002)
Eddie Pepperell 500-1 (2/1002)
Seungsu Han 500-1 (2/1002)
Ryan Armour 500-1 (2/1002)
Ted Potter, Jr 500-1 (2/1002)
Chris Stroud 500-1 (2/1002)
Scott Brown 500-1 (2/1002)
 
Dang Rat, hope one of those wins to get you $.
Hope it works to have Sunday turn out with many picks at the top, would be fun.

Just FYI Business Insider has released "longshot or sleeper picks" early in the week of each major.
They had the winner on their list in each major this year, seems the list is 25-1 or better odds, they listed 7 to 10 players each major.
Will be interested in their picks this week
 
per >>> https://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/2018/08/03/pga-championship-tee-times-and-featured-groups/ featured threesomes first round (all times eastern)

8:17am: Tony Finau - Jim Furyk - Xander Schauffele
8:39am: Rickie Fowler - Hideki Matsuyama - Ian Poulter
9:01am: Phil Mickelson - Jason Day - Keegan Bradley
9:23am: Tiger Woods - Rory McIlroy - Justin Thomas
1:53pm: Dustin Johnson - Adam Scott - Bubba Watson
2:15pm: Brooks Koepka - Francesco Molinari - Patrick Reed
2:37pm: Jon Rahm - Jordan Spieth - Justin Rose

"of interest" for me
6:50am: Michael Block - Eddie Pepperell - Ryan Fox
12:42pm: Chris Wood - Alex Noren - Matt Kuchar
1:04pm: Tommy Fleetwood - Satoshi Kodaira - Marc Leishman
1:32pm: Thorbjorn Olesen - Charl Schwartzel - Patrick Cantlay

WILL "Edgy" (current 250-1 down from 500-1) and/or "Foxy" (current 200-1 up from 150-1) go out early with little gallery distraction and shoot "wicked low" ???
WILL Spieth, Noren, "X" "The Poulter-geist" "Cocker Tommy" and "The Mole" "bounce back" from their horrid WGC performance last week ???
WILL Jordan Spieth complete his "Grand Slam" ???
WILL Justin Thomas repeat B2B ??? (last week WGC AND last year @ Quail Hollow)
WILL Thor Olesen build on his final round [-6] T-3rd WGC finish ???
WILL "Rickie Tickie" Fowler get his first major ???
WILL Justin Rose wonky back be OK ???
WHICH Jon Rahm will show up ??? "Rahmbo" OR the "Rahm-a-lama Ding Dong" ???
WHICH Brooks Koepka will show up ??? the solo 5th last week WGC and US Open winner OR the Open Championship and Canadian Open CUT ???
 
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B.A.R. said:
I'm not cliche with majors a lot but DJ, JT... Rory/Finau...Koepka....a few of those will be there Sunday.
Click to expand...

you like long driving "bombers" do NOT forget Ryan Fox (5th in distance Euro Tour), Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and even Justin Rose. also Rory McIlroy 7th in distance Euro Tour
 
I was all over Rahm early in year but he needs to grow up. Obviously Justin always in conversation as is Fleetwood Mac nowadays.
 
Unlike the Open this will be the humidity/air creating distance, hard greens shouldn't be so much a factor. Will definitely give the longer hitters an advantage.
 
B.A.R. said:
I was all over Rahm early in year but he needs to grow up. Obviously Justin always in conversation as is Fleetwood Mac nowadays.
Click to expand...

ref: WHICH Jon Rahm SHOWS UP this week ??? the club throwing idiot that "blew up" the Open Championship 2nd round OR the solo 4th at The Masters, T-4th Irish Open T-5th Open de France and Open de Espana WINNER ??? :confused:
 
Problem with Jon is once it goes South there is zero recovery and it just escalates, happened again this weekend
 
KJ said:
Problem with Jon is once it goes South there is zero recovery and it just escalates, happened again this weekend
Click to expand...

Ya he was "in range" @ [-8] T-7th going into the final round BUT shot [+3] and ended up [-5] T-17th. BUNCH of "top players" finished poorly @ Firestone last week. Rory McILroy final [+3] for [-8] T-6th. Jason Day [+3] for [-7] T-10th Ian Poulter [+4] for [-7] T-10th. Tommy Fleetwood final [+1] after a 3rd round [+4] for tourney [-6] T-14th. "Cocker Tommy" had been tied 2nd round lead [-7] for tourney [-11] with both Poulter and eventual winner Justin Thomas :mad:
 
Is anyone else in full fade Tiger mode? He looked physically and mentally done on the weekend. And that was over a course he has loved his entire career!
 
RBTrojan said:
Is anyone else in full fade Tiger mode? He looked physically and mentally done on the weekend. And that was over a course he has loved his entire career!
Click to expand...
In the playoffs I will consider it. This week I think he tried hard but this isn't his kinda course...so...could be good here to(fade).
 
I would be more inclined to fade him on a Sat matchup as opposed to tournament, if he's in the hunt and actually puts together a nice round on Saturday I want no part of fading him Sunday at this point. Almost looked like he checked out midday last Saturday to focus on this week....like any sport where a favorite that's actually good knows when to shift focus. Was just going through the motions on Sunday really, couple early birds but no real focus.
 
Good golfers start experimenting with shots they've been practicing on the range in a tournament setting. I agree with the fade on a Saturday but the single round match ups are too random. I wanted to fade Tiger Sunday but couldn't pull the trigger due to him being paired with Ornsby...
 
agree with the comments that The Open Championship TV coverage was FANTASTIC!!! Masters is always well done too. NO "featured group" coverage BEFORE 2:00pm eastern time ??? they can NOT be SERIOUS!!! that means NO 9:23am tee time: Tiger Woods - Rory McIlroy - Justin Thomas ??? WHAT ever HAPPENED to "ALL Tiger ALL the TIME" TV coverage ??? NO Golf Channel LIVE coverage ??? they usually partner with CBS :mad:
 
Rockfish said:
Mick Fleetwood ov Spieth

Matchup record 8-6 (L3)
Click to expand...

I am cautious betting AGAINST "Squirrely" Spieth in majors. THAT always seems to BITE me in the BUTT. the bugger always seems to "find a way" to be near the top even IF he has been playing poorly going in. AND "Cocker Tommy" BLEW UP the 3rd and 4th rounds last week @ Firestone :nonofinger:
 
LeRinkRat said:
I am cautious betting AGAINST "Squirrely" Spieth in majors. THAT always seems to BITE me in the BUTT. the bugger always seems to "find a way" to be near the top even IF he has been playing poorly going in. AND "Cocker Tommy" BLEW UP the 3rd and 4th rounds last week @ Firestone :nonofinger:
Click to expand...
I understand your hesitancy with Spieth and majors. I'm hoping that fingernail he split during the final round of the Open is still causing him trouble with his grip. I also think Tommy's advantage off the tee will be heightened with this course and the soft conditions.
 
Here's what I got:

Stanley +115 vs Phil
Olesen +105 vs Phil
Cantlay -135 vs Noren
Day +165 vs DJ
Day +115 vs JT
Day -115 vs Rose
Koepka +125 vs JT
Koepka +170 vs DJ
Koepka -115 vs Rose

Top 10:
Day +130
Koepka +130
Cantaly +250
Oosthuizen +500

Top 5:
Day +320
Rory +180

A couple of things. I think Phil is done until the Ryder Cup. This course is long, will be hot and humid, and he's probably going to wear one of those ridiculous shirts. I think he knows he's a lock for the RC team. Obviously, I'm high on Day and Koepka this week. I think this course sets up extremely well for them. Of course, it also sets up well for DJ and JT, but I think getting + odds for Day/Koepka presents value, no matter who they are matched up against. Also, it's really hard to play that well 8+ rounds in a row. Day has been especially good at the PGA, going 1, 2, 9 the last 3. And he had a really good chance to win last year before he tried to hit that hero shot on 18 in the 3rd round and made triple or whatever. I think Rose will be steady, unless his back flares up again, but I don't think he has the firepower to keep up with those 2 on this type of setup

I'm going Rory for one and done. He's been playing well, despite not hitting his irons very well at all. If he can sharpen that just a bit, and continue to putt like he has, I think he can run away from the pack.
 
Rockfish said:
I understand your hesitancy with Spieth and majors. I'm hoping that fingernail he split during the final round of the Open is still causing him trouble with his grip. I also think Tommy's advantage off the tee will be heightened with this course and the soft conditions.
Click to expand...

you make a good point about Spieth's adventure with the gorse bush at Carnoustie. his putting went south after he injured his finger which is why he "collapsed" in the final round AND putted poorly last week at Firestone. he is normally one of THE best putters on the tour BUT will see what happens this week

another Euro Tour player that can get really HOT with his putter on large greens is "The Matthew Mouse" Fitzpatrick. as B.A.R's post stated, they were showing the greens yesterday during The Golf Channel's "Morning Drive" and they look pretty "ratty". we could have a re-run of the 2015 US Open at Chambers Bay with those lumpy, bumpy greens :(

some interesting high odds "Group" bets at Westgate this week. I will probably stay away BUT think they have a good chance

Group A
Dustin Johnson +210
Rory McIlroy +250
Justin Thomas +260
Brooks Koepka +300 <<< will agree with gps_3 on Brooks this week. he could WIN the whole schemer @ 20-1

Group C
Tiger Woods +250
Tommy Fleetwood +245
Francesco Molinari +240
Tony Finau +280 <<< ONLY because the other three STUNK at Firestone last week and Tony played well in majors this season

Group D
Patrick Reed +240
Henrik Stenson +250
Hideki Matsuyama +250
Marc Leishman +275 <<< ref the Finau comment

Group G
Ian Poulter +250
Branden Grace +260
Kyle Stanley +240
Thorbjorn Olesen +260 <<< toughest one to pick. the "Poulter-geist" or "Stanley Steamer" also could win. Thor +105 over Phil Mickelson head up match play probably the better bet

:shake:
 
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speaking of Ryan Fox, his tourney match play opened -115 vs Austin Cook. NOW +125. at that price I think he is worth a "sprinkle". "Foxy" and "Edgy" Pepperell are the first off the tee Thursday at 7:50am eastern with a teaching pro as their third. Cook goes at 8:01am eastern with Alex Bjork and a teaching pro

Ryan Fox T-39th British [+2] T-6th Scottish [-14] 2nd Irish [-14] playoff T-44th Open de France T-41st US Open [+14] T-8th Italian [-16] NO CUT his last 9 tourneys
Austin Cook T-53rd Bridgestone [+3] T-28th British [even] T-34th John Deere [-11] T-5th Greenbrier [-12] CUT Travelers T-6th FedEx St Jude [-7] CUT Memorial CUT Colonial
 
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RBTrojan said:
Is anyone else in full fade Tiger mode? He looked physically and mentally done on the weekend. And that was over a course he has loved his entire career!
Click to expand...
Took Monday off, with three ice baths. Played five holes Tues before rain hit. Rain expected again today. Has never played this course. Doesn't sound too promising.
 
Rory wins, then the "he only wins majors" on these types of courses narrative can begin. Either way, this should just be a shootout for a lot of big guns.
 
Administrator said:
100.00 up for grabs -- PGA Contest -- Free to Enter
Click to expand...

well I see needlenose selected
Justine Thomas
Rory McIlroy
Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka
so ONE of of THOSE should WIN. needlenose been "HOT as Chinese Mustard" with his contest picks

interesting "Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas or Tiger Woods to win the PGA" prop @ Westgate YES +280. that is three of needlenose six picks. they also have a Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm or Brooks Koepka YES +425 (to bad NO Jason Day instead of either Spieth or Rahm). BEST Tony Finau "to win" 30-1 @ Westgate and William-Hill (down from 50-1) :)
 
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I think that's a winner Rat.
I'm sensing chalk.
I've got JT at 18-1 so I'm hoping it's him.
But with my luck it'll be Finau (my team is Needlenose's w/o Finau)
 
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