Early Early Line Game for WK 1

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Some pretty decent WK1 games, if you had to guess in Feb what you thought the lines would be in WK1 on the following. Should be fun to compare in June-July when everyone is getting ready for the season. I literally just spit out the first number that came to my head without any research.

SoCar +5.5 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +10 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -6 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -17 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -13 @ Memphis
 
SoCar +5.5 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +10 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -6 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -17 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -13 @ Memphis
Click to expand...

South Carolina +6 @ NC State
Nevada +14.5 @ Notre Dame
BYU +13 vs Okie
Alabama -4 vs Va Tech
Oregon -3.5 @ Boise St
Baylor +7 @ Wake Forest
Georgia +3.5 @ Oklahoma State
Illinois -6 vs Missouri
Louisiana St -20.5 @ Washington
Maryland +11.5 @ California
Ole Miss -10.5 @ Memphis
 
E.T.G. said:
Some pretty decent WK1 games, if you had to guess in Feb what you thought the lines would be in WK1 on the following. Should be fun to compare in June-July when everyone is getting ready for the season. I literally just spit out the first number that came to my head without any research.

SoCar +5.5 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +10 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -6 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -17 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -13 @ Memphis
Click to expand...

Don't think Oregon should be a fav @BSU. They may end up being favored, but I'd have to play the Broncos is that was the case. BYU +17.5. That's going to be embarrassing for them. Lose 4/5 OL, top 3 WR's and their secondary will get shredded by Bradford. Like CAL to get some serious revenge against Maryland as well.
 
UO vs. Boise will be a shootout. Last team with the ball wins. Probably around a PK I would expect.

Wake will be giving a lot more than 7 in that game, but if its too many I will be on the Bears.
 
TheGarfather said:
UO vs. Boise will be a shootout. Last team with the ball wins. Probably around a PK I would expect.

Wake will be giving a lot more than 7 in that game, but if its too many I will be on the Bears.
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Do you think? I was at first as well but went on the natural home/away swing from last year and tried to even it out. This is obviously without having looked at these teams yet and going off last season and knowing whats coming back.

The PK at Boise could be a possibility. Pretty cool the Ducks are heading over there for a game.
 
How on earth can anyone make a line for LT @ Auburn? I honestly don't even know where to start with this one. I'm thinking that it has to be more than the standard home field, but it can't be more than ten because A) the Tigers can't score and B) LT is a lot better now then they were against MSU in last season's opener. MSU and Auburn aren't so different, but there is a change of venue. Let's say Auburn -8.5 just to kick off the Chizik era with a win.

How about Navy @ Ohio State?
 
TheGarfather said:
How on earth can anyone make a line for LT @ Auburn? I honestly don't even know where to start with this one. I'm thinking that it has to be more than the standard home field, but it can't be more than ten because A) the Tigers can't score and B) LT is a lot better now then they were against MSU in last season's opener. MSU and Auburn aren't so different, but there is a change of venue. Let's say Auburn -8.5 just to kick off the Chizik era with a win.

How about Navy @ Ohio State?
Click to expand...



navy one of the biggest bet against teams of 2009 in all likelihood. i am not willing to make lines though haha.


LT is going to be better next year. The benching of bennett midseason really helped that team .. good coach and they did get that msu win by playing hard nosed football. Just such a different team at home and away though.

Gar ... going back to the boise game from last year. I distinctly remember you saying after the game that oregon was the better team. How much do you think revenge comes into play and how do you see the ducks lining up for next season ?
 
I can def see the BYU line being a lot higher than what I projected.

With the Oregon game, I don't know I felt like I thought Boise was losing a lot and Oregon was suppose to be returning a decent amount, espcially on offense? Then add in a whole summer of prep for Boise in a big-time revenge game for Oregon and I came up with this... I could just be totally off, I'm just going from what I thought was memory. Boise as a home dog will be attractive to a lot of people though and if I could get Oregon as a PK it would be really hard to turn down

I have no idea on a LT/Auburn line. I think I am going to resist betting in games that involve a new head coach though unless I really like the game. I want to give the coach about 3-4 games before making a decision one way or another on how the season will go
 
Last edited:
vegaskyle said:
navy one of the biggest bet against teams of 2009 in all likelihood. i am not willing to make lines though haha.


LT is going to be better next year. The benching of bennett midseason really helped that team .. good coach and they did get that msu win by playing hard nosed football. Just such a different team at home and away though.

Gar ... going back to the boise game from last year. I distinctly remember you saying after the game that oregon was the better team. How much do you think revenge comes into play and how do you see the ducks lining up for next season ?
Click to expand...

Yeah, UO was head and shoulders better than Boise, but a few things went against them that day including a cheap shot that knocked out Masoli. Revenge is always a consideration, but really the game is about preparedness and execution and those are things that both Bellotti and Peterson are quite good at. (That game was the only "evidence" all season that BSU was any good, and while most people viewed it with significance I saw it for it was, a fluke. Broncos never were any good last year but it wasn't revealed until the bowl against a decent opponent.)

I don't like UO a whole lot for next year. They will get bowl eligible just by out-scoring some folks, but they lose an awful lot on both lines. With 3.5 new OLmen and 3 new DLmen it could be a real adventure especially against a disciplined gritty team like BSU. That is not the team that I would prefer to open the season against. I am making a committment to avoid betting the first two weeks of the season because not once in all my years have I ever been ahead after the first two weeks (money line dogs don't become profitable until late September), but with that said I would probably take the Broncos as a home dog.
 
Not one to bet against Boise at home, but there could be some value here with Oregon. I look for Oregon to be pretty damn good next year. Their offense with that QB is going to be damn hard to stop. I look for Alabama to take a slight step back. Agree with Kyle, Navy a big bet against team this upcoming year. Can't wait for Phil Steele to come out to start sifting through data and preparing for the upcoming college football season and crush the books again with the help of a couple of sharp guys here and other places I have linked up with.
 
TheGarfather said:
Yeah, UO was head and shoulders better than Boise, but a few things went against them that day including a cheap shot that knocked out Masoli. Revenge is always a consideration, but really the game is about preparedness and execution and those are things that both Bellotti and Peterson are quite good at. (That game was the only "evidence" all season that BSU was any good, and while most people viewed it with significance I saw it for it was, a fluke. Broncos never were any good last year but it wasn't revealed until the bowl against a decent opponent.)

I don't like UO a whole lot for next year. They will get bowl eligible just by out-scoring some folks, but they lose an awful lot on both lines. With 3.5 new OLmen and 3 new DLmen it could be a real adventure especially against a disciplined gritty team like BSU. That is not the team that I would prefer to open the season against. I am making a committment to avoid betting the first two weeks of the season because not once in all my years have I ever been ahead after the first two weeks (money line dogs don't become profitable until late September), but with that said I would probably take the Broncos as a home dog.
Click to expand...



thanks Gar.
 
sirwinzalot said:
Not one to bet against Boise at home, but there could be some value here with Oregon. I look for Oregon to be pretty damn good next year. Their offense with that QB is going to be damn hard to stop. I look for Alabama to take a slight step back. Agree with Kyle, Navy a big bet against team this upcoming year. Can't wait for Phil Steele to come out to start sifting through data and preparing for the upcoming college football season and crush the books again with the help of a couple of sharp guys here and other places I have linked up with.
Click to expand...


football season is so short and damn basketball season is sooooo long......
 
NCST/SCak Over (38?)

Over/Under in this game last year was 43, def can not see it being set higher than that. Coming into the year the perception will be that SC has no offense but plays pretty tough defense and I think this perception is going to be a large reason this O/U is set low, I am thinking in the high 30's. SCar is not going to be as strong on defense, and depending what happens here in the spring with a few DBs and their grades, they could be really weak at the CB position, on top of being very inexperienced. NCST got their offense going to end the year and Wilson and company will move the ball. I think fans were treated to an absolute bore fest last year but the game this year is going to have a lot more action. I honestly think looking at it this early there are going to be 47+ points.
 
E.T.G. said:
NCST/SCak Over (38?)

Over/Under in this game last year was 43, def can not see it being set higher than that. Coming into the year the perception will be that SC has no offense but plays pretty tough defense and I think this perception is going to be a large reason this O/U is set low, I am thinking in the high 30's. SCar is not going to be as strong on defense, and depending what happens here in the spring with a few DBs and their grades, they could be really weak at the CB position, on top of being very inexperienced. NCST got their offense going to end the year and Wilson and company will move the ball. I think fans were treated to an absolute bore fest last year but the game this year is going to have a lot more action. I honestly think looking at it this early there are going to be 47+ points.
Click to expand...

Rusty Wilson may be responsible for 31 of them.. Guy is gonna be ACC player of the year
 
E.T.G. said:
NCST/SCak Over (38?)

Over/Under in this game last year was 43, def can not see it being set higher than that. Coming into the year the perception will be that SC has no offense but plays pretty tough defense and I think this perception is going to be a large reason this O/U is set low, I am thinking in the high 30's. SCar is not going to be as strong on defense, and depending what happens here in the spring with a few DBs and their grades, they could be really weak at the CB position, on top of being very inexperienced. NCST got their offense going to end the year and Wilson and company will move the ball. I think fans were treated to an absolute bore fest last year but the game this year is going to have a lot more action. I honestly think looking at it this early there are going to be 47+ points.
Click to expand...

Great post, bro............:cheers:
 
Wilson sure was a cash cow last yr.

South Carolina finished the year with 38turnovers (28int) and 39 sacks.

They have no where to go but up with the OL-RB-QB situation.

Really think get a low number here.
 
More to the point regarding your over play, ETG:

http://blogs.ajc.com/barnhart-colle...-sec/?cxntfid=blogs_barnhart_college_football


I’m starting to get a little concerned about the South Carolina defense: Six starters were set to return from a defensive unit that kept the Gamecocks in most games while the offense was doing very little. The holes created by the losses of CB Captain Munnerlyn, a player I really liked, SS Emmanuel Cook, and LB Jasper Brinkley were going to be tough enough to fill. Now DT Ladi Ajiboye, who has started 22 games, and sophomore cornerback C.C. Whitlock, who was contending for a starting spot, have now been suspended. Ajiboye, from Riverdale, Ga., was arrested and charged with marijuana possession. Whitlock is a sophomore who played in nine games last season. Coach Steve Spurrier would only say that Whitlock had not been adhering to team requirements but reports say there are academic issues involved. I think Ajiboye has a chance to eventually get back after going through a diversion program. Don’t know about Whitlock. Spurrier’s not saying. I do know that South Carolina can’t afford to lose many more SEC caliber players at this point.
 
I mentioned this in the notes for the upcoming season in another thread. I will go more in detail about South Carolina after spring but Ajiboye is reported to be at about 260lbs now, down 30 from his playing weight, and I just can't expect him to be much of any kind of factor for the season unless things drastically change. He is not with the team, and his status is still in the air.. Whitlock is going to be back with the team but he needs to keep his ass in the books because he is dangerously close to being out of school. Stephen Gilmore is a true frosh who is enrolled early who is going to be a starting CB, ultra taletned but a true frosh. The depth at DT-CB is scary thin.</p>
 
tunasunday said:
I’m starting to get a little concerned about the South Carolina defense: Six starters were set to return from a defensive unit that kept the Gamecocks in most games while the offense was doing very little. The holes created by the losses of CB Captain Munnerlyn, a player I really liked, SS Emmanuel Cook, and LB Jasper Brinkley were going to be tough enough to fill. Now DT Ladi Ajiboye, who has started 22 games, and sophomore cornerback C.C. Whitlock, who was contending for a starting spot, have now been suspended. Ajiboye, from Riverdale, Ga., was arrested and charged with marijuana possession. Whitlock is a sophomore who played in nine games last season. Coach Steve Spurrier would only say that Whitlock had not been adhering to team requirements but reports say there are academic issues involved. I think Ajiboye has a chance to eventually get back after going through a diversion program. Don’t know about Whitlock. Spurrier’s not saying. I do know that South Carolina can’t afford to lose many more SEC caliber players at this point.
Click to expand...

bout this specific article. Not sure why the writer reallyed liked Munnerlyn. He sucked last yr as a CB. He had 0int and it was not cause they didn't throw his way. He made a few big plays on special teams to his credit but got beat often and had a piss poor team attitude to go with it. Cook will be missed in terms of stopping the run but was nothing special in space or stopping the pass. Brinkley, love the kid, wasn't himself for most of the year. Now he is at 249lbs and tested really well for the combine, love the kid as I said before, hope someone takes him first day. Ajiboye really hurts the middle of the defense at DT, he had started 22games going into this yr. SC also lost 2 other CBs not mentioned in the article (Carlos Thomas/Stoney Woodson) who were Seniors, experienced, and they each played better than Munnerlyn. The most important player from the defense, Norwood, returned so I guess there is 1 positive from the defense last yr. They will be fine at DE-LB-Safety but CB-DT will be a grave concern.
 
ETG, thanks for starting a great thread

I am in the process of formulating my "rough draft" power rankings and then will start forming preliminary Week One lines from there.

However, it is easy to see that you know what you're doing and can "make a number." I know a lot of outstanding handicappers who couldn't make a good number if they had to.

Four months away. It's certainly time to kick the preseason process into second gear.

Good luck,
Paul
 
pstone said:
I am in the process of formulating my "rough draft" power rankings and then will start forming preliminary Week One lines from there.

However, it is easy to see that you know what you're doing and can "make a number." I know a lot of outstanding handicappers who couldn't make a good number if they had to.

Four months away. It's certainly time to kick the preseason process into second gear.

Good luck,
Paul
Click to expand...

:tiphat:
 
E.T.G. said:
SoCar +5.5 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +10 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -6 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -17 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -13 @ Memphis
Click to expand...

Thanks PStone. Since I opened this thread and I'm pretty up to date on what went on during most springs, I will try to make some new guesses.

SoCar +4 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +17 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -4.5 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -23 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -17 @ Memphis
 
E.T.G. said:
Thanks PStone. Since I opened this thread and I'm pretty up to date on what went on during most springs, I will try to make some new guesses.

SoCar +4 @ NCST
Nevada +17 @ ND
BYU +17 vs. Oky (Arlington)
Bama -2.5 vs. VT (ATL)
Oregon -4.5 @ Boise
Baylor +7 @ Wake
UGA +4 @ Oky ST
Illy -3 vs Mizz (St. Louis)
LSU -23 @ Wash
Maryland +10 @ Cal
Ole Miss -17 @ Memphis
Click to expand...

bama will be a full 3 and maybe 3' i think

oregon favored on the smurf turf?

I think your first number was better on ole miss.. I'd take Memphis +17 right now on May 1st without thinking twice
 
CrimsonK said:
bama will be a full 3 and maybe 3' i think

oregon favored on the smurf turf?

I think your first number was better on ole miss.. I'd take Memphis +17 right now on May 1st without thinking twice
Click to expand...


I'm seeing Ole Miss as a top 10 ranked team with a lot of hype, a big name QB, a studly DL, a strong OL going against a CUSA team. I think the line is going to be a little inflated?

I still have not come around on that Oregon-Boise game.
 
E.T.G. said:
I'm seeing Ole Miss as a top 10 ranked team with a lot of hype, a big name QB, a studly DL, a strong OL going against a CUSA team. I think the line is going to be a little inflated?

I still have not come around on that Oregon-Boise game.
Click to expand...

I agree on OM being Top 10 and your position asessment. Line very well may be inflated as ESPN and co. will be all over them this year. But this is a rivalry game on turf against a team that played in a bowl last season. Just sayin if the line was 17 right now I'd take the home dog and prob pretty heavy
 
Garfather, it's certainly time to get things revved up

a little bit for the 2009 season.

A lot of sharp minds and good dialogue on this board.

And you know how much I love those first few weeks of the CFB season.

Although the numbers eventually get tight, the linemaker is certainly at a disadvantage against an astute handicapper.

Good luck,
Paul
 
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