Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 16 Top Picks: Underdog Eagles to "Upset" Dallas
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Best Bet: Eagles +6 at -108 with BetOnline
The Odds
Dallas opened this game as a 1.5-point home favorite.
While I still would have liked Philadelphia just as much as I do now, that spread made logical sense to me because it implied that Philadelphia would be a small favorite at home.
Now, however, Dallas is favored by six points.
-6 is obviously a tremendous difference from -1.5, so what explains the change?
Eagle starting quarterback Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder against the Bears.
Because the Eagles will make the playoffs, it would clearly be prudent for them to rest Hurts.
Hurts did play through his injury against the Bears, so it seems that he is capable of playing.
But the Eagles will surely think of their future outlook in the playoffs when deciding whether to play him or not.
Scrutinizing the Odds
So, there are three assumptions in play here.
The first assumption contains two related assumptions: Philadelphia's backup quarterback is vastly inferior to Hurts, and his inferiority will make a significant difference in the outcome of this game.
Three, Philadelphia is focused on the playoffs and thus might very well be less motivated than Dallas for this game.
These assumptions have motivated the perception that Dallas will win this game.
Part of the reason why I like Philadelphia to cover the spread and win outright is that I think both assumptions are rather ridiculous.
Philadelphia's Backup Quarterback
Assuming that Hurts won't play, Philadelphia will start Gardner Minshew.
You might remember the hype about "Minshew Magic" when Minshew was Jacksonville's starting quarterback.
Despite being a backup, he has strong experience as a starter.
Thus, as far as backups go, the Eagles are in relatively good hands.
Minshew has also started for the Eagles.
Last season, he achieved a 133.7 passer rating against the Jets before mustering an 81.1 passer rating against the Cowboys.
While an 81.1 passer rating is poor, it is close to Hurts' passer rating last season (87.2).
Hurts' passer rating improved by 17 points from last season to this one in no small part because of AJ Brown's arrival.
Brown is an elite wide receiver: he ranks top-five in receiving yards (1,201) and receiving touchdowns (10).
His presence will help Minshew's passing numbers just as it has Hurts' -- this is especially true on Sunday as Dallas misses two of its top three cornerbacks to injury.
I think that Philadelphia will be just fine with Minshew because he is a capable passer.
While he lacks Hurts' prowess as a runner, the Eagles have an excellent group of running backs with which to amass rushing yards.
Motivation
I've seen the notion floated that, in line with their caution with the injured Hurts, Philadelphia is not going to take this game seriously.
I think this is a very stupid notion.
There is no way that the Eagles will relax when they have yet to clinch the top seed.
They will be cautious with Hurts, but their available players will want to win this game.
One may just as well suggest that Dallas won't be motivated, because the Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot.
Both teams will come prepared for this rivalry game in which a lot is on the line.
The First Meeting
Cowboy supporters will point to the first meeting as a source of optimism.
While the Eagles won that game by nine points, Dallas stopped the Eagle rush attack.
The thinking is that if Hurts can't go and Dallas can stop Philadelphia's running backs, then the Eagles will lack sufficient offensive power with which to challenge Dallas' defense.
But recall that literally all of Philadelphia's starting offensive linemen were on the injury report that week.
Most critically, Lane Johnson, the team's Pro Bowl right tackle, had to leave the game early. He did not finish the first half.
So, it is not the case that the Cowboys possess a strong rush defense -- Dallas actually has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL; the Cowboy run defense ranks 24th.
Philadelphia was injured in a way that it is not now: Philadelphia's starting offensive line is completely healthy right now and good to go.
Dallas' Rush Defense
The Cowboys' 24th-ranked run defense reliably falls prey to strong rush attacks.
Chicago's first-ranked rush attack, for example, amassed 240 rushing yards largely due to running back Khalil Herbert's great game.
Lesser offenses thrived similarly.
For example, Green Bay with its great running back duo exceeded 200 rushing yards against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia boasts Miles Sanders at running back with his 1,110 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC.
The Eagles also rank second in run-block rate, ahead of Chicago as well as every other previous Cowboy opponent.
Dallas Offense's Outlook
Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott has a bad problem with interceptions -- he has already thrown five in three games in December.
He'll struggle against Philadelphia's top-ranked pass defense, just as he did against Green Bay.
The Packers own the second-best pass defense. Prescott's passer rating against them was a poor 78.6.
While the Cowboys boast a great rush attack,Philadelphia repeatedly gives up a lot on the ground without allowing more than around 20 points, like last week against Chicago's top-ranked rush attack.
Dallas will need help from Dak to finish off drives, and it won't get this help.
The Verdict
The clock will be ticking in this game as both teams rely primarily on their running backs to sustain drives.
Even granted that Hurts doesn't play, Dallas lacks an advantage in its own pass attack, and its rush defense remains completely vulnerable to Philadelphia's rush attack.
Philadelphia has the stronger weapons on offense with Brown and Sanders, the superior o-line, and the better overall defense.
For the above reasons, I find it ridiculous that the Eagles are dogged by six points.
In addition to Philly covering the spread, expect the continually ticking clock to ensure an "under."
Best Bet: Under 46 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Best Bet: Eagles +6 at -108 with BetOnline
The Odds
Dallas opened this game as a 1.5-point home favorite.
While I still would have liked Philadelphia just as much as I do now, that spread made logical sense to me because it implied that Philadelphia would be a small favorite at home.
Now, however, Dallas is favored by six points.
-6 is obviously a tremendous difference from -1.5, so what explains the change?
Eagle starting quarterback Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder against the Bears.
Because the Eagles will make the playoffs, it would clearly be prudent for them to rest Hurts.
Hurts did play through his injury against the Bears, so it seems that he is capable of playing.
But the Eagles will surely think of their future outlook in the playoffs when deciding whether to play him or not.
Scrutinizing the Odds
So, there are three assumptions in play here.
The first assumption contains two related assumptions: Philadelphia's backup quarterback is vastly inferior to Hurts, and his inferiority will make a significant difference in the outcome of this game.
Three, Philadelphia is focused on the playoffs and thus might very well be less motivated than Dallas for this game.
These assumptions have motivated the perception that Dallas will win this game.
Part of the reason why I like Philadelphia to cover the spread and win outright is that I think both assumptions are rather ridiculous.
Philadelphia's Backup Quarterback
Assuming that Hurts won't play, Philadelphia will start Gardner Minshew.
You might remember the hype about "Minshew Magic" when Minshew was Jacksonville's starting quarterback.
Despite being a backup, he has strong experience as a starter.
Thus, as far as backups go, the Eagles are in relatively good hands.
Minshew has also started for the Eagles.
Last season, he achieved a 133.7 passer rating against the Jets before mustering an 81.1 passer rating against the Cowboys.
While an 81.1 passer rating is poor, it is close to Hurts' passer rating last season (87.2).
Hurts' passer rating improved by 17 points from last season to this one in no small part because of AJ Brown's arrival.
Brown is an elite wide receiver: he ranks top-five in receiving yards (1,201) and receiving touchdowns (10).
His presence will help Minshew's passing numbers just as it has Hurts' -- this is especially true on Sunday as Dallas misses two of its top three cornerbacks to injury.
I think that Philadelphia will be just fine with Minshew because he is a capable passer.
While he lacks Hurts' prowess as a runner, the Eagles have an excellent group of running backs with which to amass rushing yards.
Motivation
I've seen the notion floated that, in line with their caution with the injured Hurts, Philadelphia is not going to take this game seriously.
I think this is a very stupid notion.
There is no way that the Eagles will relax when they have yet to clinch the top seed.
They will be cautious with Hurts, but their available players will want to win this game.
One may just as well suggest that Dallas won't be motivated, because the Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot.
Both teams will come prepared for this rivalry game in which a lot is on the line.
The First Meeting
Cowboy supporters will point to the first meeting as a source of optimism.
While the Eagles won that game by nine points, Dallas stopped the Eagle rush attack.
The thinking is that if Hurts can't go and Dallas can stop Philadelphia's running backs, then the Eagles will lack sufficient offensive power with which to challenge Dallas' defense.
But recall that literally all of Philadelphia's starting offensive linemen were on the injury report that week.
Most critically, Lane Johnson, the team's Pro Bowl right tackle, had to leave the game early. He did not finish the first half.
So, it is not the case that the Cowboys possess a strong rush defense -- Dallas actually has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL; the Cowboy run defense ranks 24th.
Philadelphia was injured in a way that it is not now: Philadelphia's starting offensive line is completely healthy right now and good to go.
Dallas' Rush Defense
The Cowboys' 24th-ranked run defense reliably falls prey to strong rush attacks.
Chicago's first-ranked rush attack, for example, amassed 240 rushing yards largely due to running back Khalil Herbert's great game.
Lesser offenses thrived similarly.
For example, Green Bay with its great running back duo exceeded 200 rushing yards against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia boasts Miles Sanders at running back with his 1,110 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC.
The Eagles also rank second in run-block rate, ahead of Chicago as well as every other previous Cowboy opponent.
Dallas Offense's Outlook
Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott has a bad problem with interceptions -- he has already thrown five in three games in December.
He'll struggle against Philadelphia's top-ranked pass defense, just as he did against Green Bay.
The Packers own the second-best pass defense. Prescott's passer rating against them was a poor 78.6.
While the Cowboys boast a great rush attack,Philadelphia repeatedly gives up a lot on the ground without allowing more than around 20 points, like last week against Chicago's top-ranked rush attack.
Dallas will need help from Dak to finish off drives, and it won't get this help.
The Verdict
The clock will be ticking in this game as both teams rely primarily on their running backs to sustain drives.
Even granted that Hurts doesn't play, Dallas lacks an advantage in its own pass attack, and its rush defense remains completely vulnerable to Philadelphia's rush attack.
Philadelphia has the stronger weapons on offense with Brown and Sanders, the superior o-line, and the better overall defense.
For the above reasons, I find it ridiculous that the Eagles are dogged by six points.
In addition to Philly covering the spread, expect the continually ticking clock to ensure an "under."
Best Bet: Under 46 at -110 with BetOnline
