Eagles vs. Colts NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Both Offenses Will Struggle to Score
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Indianapolis' Pass Protection Issues
One respect in which Indianapolis' offensive line has regressed is in pass protection.
The Colts rank 27that limiting the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked.
While having a statue in quarterback Matt Ryan doesn't help, Ryan has shown that he can still be a successful passer if he just gets enough protection from his offensive line.
Conversely, he tends to suffer when his pass protection is lacking. In such cases, the entire Colt offense will struggle.
Colt Offense's Best Games
To be exact, the Colt offense's best performances this year have come in games in which Ryan was sacked the fewest number of times.
Most recently, Ryan was sacked once in 28 drop-backs when he faced the Raiders last week.
Indianapolis won that game while Ryan achieved a solid 109.5 passer rating.
But the Colts' best offensive performance this season took place a few games ago.
Outside of Jacksonville, where they seem to be cursed every year, the Colts scored 34 points against the Jaguars.
Ryan was sacked zero times in 58 drop-backs, and with 389 passing yards he led his Colts to a win.
In a similar vein, there was one more instance in which Ryan was sacked fewer than three times.
Against the Texans, Ryan was sacked twice, and, in that game, he helped his team manage a 20-20 tie, despite Indianapolis' horrific opening day tendencies under its prior head coach.
Colt Offense's Worst Games
The Colts did manage 20 points one other time despite Ryan getting sacked more often in that game.
That game was anomalous. In it, the Chiefs gifted the Colts an early turnover, allowing to require all of four yards for a touchdown.
Otherwise, the Colts haven't managed to score more than 16 points in a game.
As their pass protection has struggled to limit the number of times Ryan gets sacked, the entire offense struggles to sustain drives.
Run-blocking is an issue, too, as running back Jonathan Taylor's stats have regressed significantly from last year.
His YPC and rushing touchdowns per game averages have both dropped.
Philadelphia's Stronger Pass Rush
Indianapolis' ability to sniff 20 points hinges on the success of its ability to limit the number of times Matt Ryan gets sacked.
The Colts maximized this ability only in games in which they faced low-ranked pass rushes -- this statistic, sack rate, is what unites the defenses that Ryan and the Colts thrived against.
To be exact, the Raider pass rush ranks 32nd. Jacksonville's ranks 30th.
While the Raiders especially do boast an excellent pass rusher and he did manage a sack against the Colts, this one pass rusher doesn't possess nearly enough help from teammates.
Quite unlike the Raiders and Jaguars, Philadelphia has a high-ranking pass rush.
The Eagles boast the fifth-best team sack percentage.
They boast sundry strong pass-rushing options who will attack the opposing quarterback from both the interior and from the outside.
Moreover, these studs are healthy.
While Josh Sweat is listed as questionable, the talented defensive end is healthy. On Monday Night, in fact, he achieved a sack.
Also look out for Haason Reddick off the edge and Fletcher Cox in the interior.
Both players have combined for 9.5 sacks, and there are more quality pass-rushing options beside them.
They will harass Matt Ryan all game, limiting his capacity to throw and ultimately replicating his offense's worst performances.
Philadelphia's Offensive Inclinations
In order for the "over" to hit, Philadelphia's offense will need to do a lot of work because it won't get much help from the Colt offense.
Primarily, the Eagles want to run the ball.
They typically aren't going to rely on quarterback Jalen Hurts to throw for 300 yards. He will not reliably lead, via his passing skills, a game to ultimately go "over" the total.
Instead, Hurts is one reason why the Eagles own the fifth-highest run-play percentage.
Colt Run Defense
I like the Colt defense because it is strongest against the offensive aspect on which Philadelphia relies most heavily, running the ball.
Indianapolis benefits from excellent defensive line play that, among others, features Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner.
Most notably, Stewart has accumulated 12 run stuffs so far while Buckner reliably handles double teams to facilitate the success of his team's linebackers.
Overall, they rank 10that limiting opposing rushing yards, while they are trending upwards in their most recent performances.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 at -108 with Heritage
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Indianapolis' Pass Protection Issues
One respect in which Indianapolis' offensive line has regressed is in pass protection.
The Colts rank 27that limiting the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked.
While having a statue in quarterback Matt Ryan doesn't help, Ryan has shown that he can still be a successful passer if he just gets enough protection from his offensive line.
Conversely, he tends to suffer when his pass protection is lacking. In such cases, the entire Colt offense will struggle.
Colt Offense's Best Games
To be exact, the Colt offense's best performances this year have come in games in which Ryan was sacked the fewest number of times.
Most recently, Ryan was sacked once in 28 drop-backs when he faced the Raiders last week.
Indianapolis won that game while Ryan achieved a solid 109.5 passer rating.
But the Colts' best offensive performance this season took place a few games ago.
Outside of Jacksonville, where they seem to be cursed every year, the Colts scored 34 points against the Jaguars.
Ryan was sacked zero times in 58 drop-backs, and with 389 passing yards he led his Colts to a win.
In a similar vein, there was one more instance in which Ryan was sacked fewer than three times.
Against the Texans, Ryan was sacked twice, and, in that game, he helped his team manage a 20-20 tie, despite Indianapolis' horrific opening day tendencies under its prior head coach.
Colt Offense's Worst Games
The Colts did manage 20 points one other time despite Ryan getting sacked more often in that game.
That game was anomalous. In it, the Chiefs gifted the Colts an early turnover, allowing to require all of four yards for a touchdown.
Otherwise, the Colts haven't managed to score more than 16 points in a game.
As their pass protection has struggled to limit the number of times Ryan gets sacked, the entire offense struggles to sustain drives.
Run-blocking is an issue, too, as running back Jonathan Taylor's stats have regressed significantly from last year.
His YPC and rushing touchdowns per game averages have both dropped.
Philadelphia's Stronger Pass Rush
Indianapolis' ability to sniff 20 points hinges on the success of its ability to limit the number of times Matt Ryan gets sacked.
The Colts maximized this ability only in games in which they faced low-ranked pass rushes -- this statistic, sack rate, is what unites the defenses that Ryan and the Colts thrived against.
To be exact, the Raider pass rush ranks 32nd. Jacksonville's ranks 30th.
While the Raiders especially do boast an excellent pass rusher and he did manage a sack against the Colts, this one pass rusher doesn't possess nearly enough help from teammates.
Quite unlike the Raiders and Jaguars, Philadelphia has a high-ranking pass rush.
The Eagles boast the fifth-best team sack percentage.
They boast sundry strong pass-rushing options who will attack the opposing quarterback from both the interior and from the outside.
Moreover, these studs are healthy.
While Josh Sweat is listed as questionable, the talented defensive end is healthy. On Monday Night, in fact, he achieved a sack.
Also look out for Haason Reddick off the edge and Fletcher Cox in the interior.
Both players have combined for 9.5 sacks, and there are more quality pass-rushing options beside them.
They will harass Matt Ryan all game, limiting his capacity to throw and ultimately replicating his offense's worst performances.
Philadelphia's Offensive Inclinations
In order for the "over" to hit, Philadelphia's offense will need to do a lot of work because it won't get much help from the Colt offense.
Primarily, the Eagles want to run the ball.
They typically aren't going to rely on quarterback Jalen Hurts to throw for 300 yards. He will not reliably lead, via his passing skills, a game to ultimately go "over" the total.
Instead, Hurts is one reason why the Eagles own the fifth-highest run-play percentage.
Colt Run Defense
I like the Colt defense because it is strongest against the offensive aspect on which Philadelphia relies most heavily, running the ball.
Indianapolis benefits from excellent defensive line play that, among others, features Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner.
Most notably, Stewart has accumulated 12 run stuffs so far while Buckner reliably handles double teams to facilitate the success of his team's linebackers.
Overall, they rank 10that limiting opposing rushing yards, while they are trending upwards in their most recent performances.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 at -108 with Heritage
