Eagles vs. Buccaneers Wild Card Game Odds & Picks: Tampa Bay to Pull Away
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 15, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Philadelphia Defense's Strong Starts
It is currently unreasonable to have confidence in Philadelphia's defense except in the first quarter.
While the Eagles' defense is getting lit up every week even by offenses that rank bottom-nine in points per game, Philly's defense consistently starts games strong.
Since Philadelphia's defensive demise began in Week 12, the Eagles have given up zero first-quarter points to Buffalo, zero to San Francisco, ten to Dallas – in Dallas, where the Cowboys score 37.4 points per game – zero to Seattle, and three to the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants.
Explaining The Disparity
Philadelphia's strong starts and weak finishes make sense of the talent on its defense and the extent to which this talent is worn down and exploited by opposing coaches.
Regarding the Eagles' talent getting worn down, defenders like Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat have played close to 90 percent of defensive snaps.
It is hard for them to play up to their ability for more than a quarter.
As for the coaching problem, Philadelphia's defense is clearly easy for opponents to make adjustments against.
Teams like the Cardinals, who rank 24th scoring 19.4 points per game, are exceeding 30 points against the Eagles.
The Giants rank third-to-last with 15.6 points per game and 25 and 27 points in Weeks 16 and 18 against Philadelphia.
Addressing The Counterargument
The counterargument here is that Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield has recently been struggling.
Am I committing a double standard by basing a bet on the recent struggles of Philadelphia's defense?
This is not a double standard, because Mayfield's last two games were against top-ten pass defenses.
But it is precisely Philadelphia's pass defense that is struggling so horribly, allowing the Giants' Tyrod Taylor to attain his season high in passing yards and Arizona's Kyler Murray to achieve his season-best passer rating.
Struggling pass defenses are what Mayfield thrives against, as evident in his combined total of 664 passing yards and six touchdowns that he accumulated in consecutive weeks, four and three weeks ago, against Green Bay and Jacksonville.
Philadelphia's pass rush has declined, so Mayfield will have a lot of time to find any number of talented pass-catchers, including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and running back Rachaad White.
Tampa Bay's Pass Defense
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts, who messed up his finger against the Giants and is, at this moment, unable to pass comfortably, would be in trouble against Tampa Bay even if he were fully healthy.
As evident in, for example, his performances against the Chiefs and most recently against the Giants, he struggles against the blitz.
These struggles are also evident in his passer rating against the blitz and in his high interception total when facing five or more pass rushers.
Indeed, his passer rating in Week 3 against Tampa Bay was an awful 71.6, and that was with a healthy AJ Brown – Brown hurt his knee in Sunday's game.
Because the Bucs blitz with the third-highest frequency, Hurts matches up poorly against them.
Addressing The Best Argument for Philadelphia
The best argument for Philadelphia would be that the Eagles ran very well against the Bucs in Week 3.
However, since Week 11, the Eagles rank towards the bottom in rushing yards and YPC allowed.
So, even if their rush attack were to do well, they wouldn't have much of an advantage over Tampa Bay's rush attack.
Any advantage that they did have would be erased by the necessity that they will face to go pass-heavy in order to keep up with Mayfield's exploitation of their porous pass defense.
But I also don't think that the Eagles will perform well on the ground again against a Bucs' run defense that showed its capability in a rematch by improving against Carolina and New Orleans' starting running backs and by shutting down Atlanta's starting running back.
Ranking fifth in limiting opposing rushing yards, Tampa Bay has had one of the top run defenses all season, as it is led by run-stuffer Vita Vea.
Tampa Bay's success against Chicago's rush attack and against San Francisco star Christian McCaffrey, whom the Bucs held to 3.7 YPC, prove that the Bucs' run defense is well-tested.
Takeaway
This game will be decided through the air, with Mayfield having a much easier time against Philadelphia's poorly coached pass defense than banged-up Hurts will against the blitz-happy Bucs.
It will be a low-scoring game at first – even in Week 3, Tampa Bay's run defense was solid at first against the Eagles.
But the Bucs will pull away with their offense that will be able to remain balanced.
The odds are, week after week, too generous for Philadelphia, because they reflect the Eagles' earlier-season success.
Losers of five of their last six, the Eagles are collapsing, and Tampa Bay will ultimately prolong their woes.
Best Bet: First Quarter under 7.5 at -115 with Bovada & Buccaneers +2.5 at +100 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 15, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Philadelphia Defense's Strong Starts
It is currently unreasonable to have confidence in Philadelphia's defense except in the first quarter.
While the Eagles' defense is getting lit up every week even by offenses that rank bottom-nine in points per game, Philly's defense consistently starts games strong.
Since Philadelphia's defensive demise began in Week 12, the Eagles have given up zero first-quarter points to Buffalo, zero to San Francisco, ten to Dallas – in Dallas, where the Cowboys score 37.4 points per game – zero to Seattle, and three to the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants.
Explaining The Disparity
Philadelphia's strong starts and weak finishes make sense of the talent on its defense and the extent to which this talent is worn down and exploited by opposing coaches.
Regarding the Eagles' talent getting worn down, defenders like Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat have played close to 90 percent of defensive snaps.
It is hard for them to play up to their ability for more than a quarter.
As for the coaching problem, Philadelphia's defense is clearly easy for opponents to make adjustments against.
Teams like the Cardinals, who rank 24th scoring 19.4 points per game, are exceeding 30 points against the Eagles.
The Giants rank third-to-last with 15.6 points per game and 25 and 27 points in Weeks 16 and 18 against Philadelphia.
Addressing The Counterargument
The counterargument here is that Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield has recently been struggling.
Am I committing a double standard by basing a bet on the recent struggles of Philadelphia's defense?
This is not a double standard, because Mayfield's last two games were against top-ten pass defenses.
But it is precisely Philadelphia's pass defense that is struggling so horribly, allowing the Giants' Tyrod Taylor to attain his season high in passing yards and Arizona's Kyler Murray to achieve his season-best passer rating.
Struggling pass defenses are what Mayfield thrives against, as evident in his combined total of 664 passing yards and six touchdowns that he accumulated in consecutive weeks, four and three weeks ago, against Green Bay and Jacksonville.
Philadelphia's pass rush has declined, so Mayfield will have a lot of time to find any number of talented pass-catchers, including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and running back Rachaad White.
Tampa Bay's Pass Defense
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts, who messed up his finger against the Giants and is, at this moment, unable to pass comfortably, would be in trouble against Tampa Bay even if he were fully healthy.
As evident in, for example, his performances against the Chiefs and most recently against the Giants, he struggles against the blitz.
These struggles are also evident in his passer rating against the blitz and in his high interception total when facing five or more pass rushers.
Indeed, his passer rating in Week 3 against Tampa Bay was an awful 71.6, and that was with a healthy AJ Brown – Brown hurt his knee in Sunday's game.
Because the Bucs blitz with the third-highest frequency, Hurts matches up poorly against them.
Addressing The Best Argument for Philadelphia
The best argument for Philadelphia would be that the Eagles ran very well against the Bucs in Week 3.
However, since Week 11, the Eagles rank towards the bottom in rushing yards and YPC allowed.
So, even if their rush attack were to do well, they wouldn't have much of an advantage over Tampa Bay's rush attack.
Any advantage that they did have would be erased by the necessity that they will face to go pass-heavy in order to keep up with Mayfield's exploitation of their porous pass defense.
But I also don't think that the Eagles will perform well on the ground again against a Bucs' run defense that showed its capability in a rematch by improving against Carolina and New Orleans' starting running backs and by shutting down Atlanta's starting running back.
Ranking fifth in limiting opposing rushing yards, Tampa Bay has had one of the top run defenses all season, as it is led by run-stuffer Vita Vea.
Tampa Bay's success against Chicago's rush attack and against San Francisco star Christian McCaffrey, whom the Bucs held to 3.7 YPC, prove that the Bucs' run defense is well-tested.
Takeaway
This game will be decided through the air, with Mayfield having a much easier time against Philadelphia's poorly coached pass defense than banged-up Hurts will against the blitz-happy Bucs.
It will be a low-scoring game at first – even in Week 3, Tampa Bay's run defense was solid at first against the Eagles.
But the Bucs will pull away with their offense that will be able to remain balanced.
The odds are, week after week, too generous for Philadelphia, because they reflect the Eagles' earlier-season success.
Losers of five of their last six, the Eagles are collapsing, and Tampa Bay will ultimately prolong their woes.
Best Bet: First Quarter under 7.5 at -115 with Bovada & Buccaneers +2.5 at +100 with BetOnline
