Eagles vs. Bears Week 15 Top Picks: Bear Rush Attack to Challenge Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Best Bet: Bears +9 at -110 with BetOnline
Importance of Chicago's Ground Game
The success of Chicago's rush attack is seminal to the overall success of its offense.
By a considerable margin, Chicago owns the NFL's highest rush-play percentage.
Their improvement in scoring -- relative to the very beginning of the season -- coincides with their increased devotion to running the ball.
Justin Fields' Running Ability
Specifically, they are having quarterback Justin Fields be more of a runner by, for example, designing more plays in which he runs the ball without ever intending to pass.
On a weekly basis, he is likely to eclipse upwards 15 or even 20 carries.
It's evident that Fields is great at being a running quarterback.
He has amassed 905 rushing yards, which is an insane figure for a quarterback, while averaging a highly efficient 7.1 YPC.
Fields has also rushed for eight touchdowns, including at least one in each of his last six games.
Run-Blocking
Chicago's run-blocking has helped Fields and its running backs.
Khalil Herbert might still be somebody who you haven't heard of, but the young former sixth-rounder ranks 4thin averaging six YPC.
While his injury might elicit concern, it shouldn't, because concern over Herbert's injury derives from a misunderstanding of the significance of offensive line performance.
Bear run-blockers repeatedly make it so that any running back can succeed.
Specifically, they rank fourth in run block win rate, although percentage-wise they have the same run block win rate as two other teams.
Eagles vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Since running the ball forms so much of what Chicago wants to do offensively, it's crucial to consider whether the Eagle defense is geared to succeed by assessing the merits of its run defense.
Philadelphia's ideal opponent is one with a statue quarterback who will drop back and remain vulnerable to Eagle pass rushers.
Hence, Philadelphia's top defensive performances have come against the likes of Indianapolis with its old and immobile quarterback.
But Chicago is not this sort of team.
Fields loves to run, and his outlook in this aspect of his game is highly positive on Sunday.
Throughout the season, Philadelphia has proven itself to be vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
Last week, for example, Giant quarterback Tyrod Taylor ran for 40 yards on two carries against the Eagles, although he is normally disinclined to run the ball too many times.
Philadelphia has mostly gotten to duck mobile quarterbacks, but another example is provided by Kyler Murray, who had his most efficient rushing performance -- with 10.5 YPC -- in his game against Philly.
Eagle Run Defense
Philadelphia has allowed opposing running backs to thrive when they play for a team that, as Chicago does, ranks among NFL leaders in run block win rate.
Detroit's D'Andre Swift, example, ran for 144 yards on 15 carries against Philly.
Likewise, Dallas, a team that ranks almost as highly as Chicago in run block win rate, accrued 134 rush yards on 5.2 YPC on the strength of its running back duo.
Evidently, Bear running backs are primed to thrive on Sunday alongside their mobile quarterback.
Philly's defensive outlook is negative on Sunday because it is vulnerable to the things on offense that the Bears are most comfortable attempting.
Philadelphia's Offensive Outlook
Given their defensive outlook, the Eagles will need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread.
December weather in Chicago aside, the Bears will be good enough defensively because they have improved against the run.
Most recently, they limited Green Bay running backs except for one nice carry from AJ Dillon.
But Aaron Jones mustered 26 rushing yards on nine carries.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts is generally not one to throw for a lot of yards, and Chicago's top cornerback Jaylon Johnson is healthy.
While Hurts loves to run, Chicago has been effective against mobile quarterbacks, recently limiting Falcon Marcus Mariota, for example to 1.9 YPC, although Mariota averages 5.2 YPC on the season.
The Verdict
Chicago has a real chance at winning this game thanks to its superior rush attack.
For your NFL bets, invest in the Bears to cover.
I also like the "over" because of Philadelphia's relatively vulnerable run defense and the potency of Philadelphia's third-ranked rush attack.
The Eagles will generate some big plays on the ground to ensure that the "over" hits.
Best Bet: Over 48.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Best Bet: Bears +9 at -110 with BetOnline
Importance of Chicago's Ground Game
The success of Chicago's rush attack is seminal to the overall success of its offense.
By a considerable margin, Chicago owns the NFL's highest rush-play percentage.
Their improvement in scoring -- relative to the very beginning of the season -- coincides with their increased devotion to running the ball.
Justin Fields' Running Ability
Specifically, they are having quarterback Justin Fields be more of a runner by, for example, designing more plays in which he runs the ball without ever intending to pass.
On a weekly basis, he is likely to eclipse upwards 15 or even 20 carries.
It's evident that Fields is great at being a running quarterback.
He has amassed 905 rushing yards, which is an insane figure for a quarterback, while averaging a highly efficient 7.1 YPC.
Fields has also rushed for eight touchdowns, including at least one in each of his last six games.
Run-Blocking
Chicago's run-blocking has helped Fields and its running backs.
Khalil Herbert might still be somebody who you haven't heard of, but the young former sixth-rounder ranks 4thin averaging six YPC.
While his injury might elicit concern, it shouldn't, because concern over Herbert's injury derives from a misunderstanding of the significance of offensive line performance.
Bear run-blockers repeatedly make it so that any running back can succeed.
Specifically, they rank fourth in run block win rate, although percentage-wise they have the same run block win rate as two other teams.
Eagles vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Since running the ball forms so much of what Chicago wants to do offensively, it's crucial to consider whether the Eagle defense is geared to succeed by assessing the merits of its run defense.
Philadelphia's ideal opponent is one with a statue quarterback who will drop back and remain vulnerable to Eagle pass rushers.
Hence, Philadelphia's top defensive performances have come against the likes of Indianapolis with its old and immobile quarterback.
But Chicago is not this sort of team.
Fields loves to run, and his outlook in this aspect of his game is highly positive on Sunday.
Throughout the season, Philadelphia has proven itself to be vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
Last week, for example, Giant quarterback Tyrod Taylor ran for 40 yards on two carries against the Eagles, although he is normally disinclined to run the ball too many times.
Philadelphia has mostly gotten to duck mobile quarterbacks, but another example is provided by Kyler Murray, who had his most efficient rushing performance -- with 10.5 YPC -- in his game against Philly.
Eagle Run Defense
Philadelphia has allowed opposing running backs to thrive when they play for a team that, as Chicago does, ranks among NFL leaders in run block win rate.
Detroit's D'Andre Swift, example, ran for 144 yards on 15 carries against Philly.
Likewise, Dallas, a team that ranks almost as highly as Chicago in run block win rate, accrued 134 rush yards on 5.2 YPC on the strength of its running back duo.
Evidently, Bear running backs are primed to thrive on Sunday alongside their mobile quarterback.
Philly's defensive outlook is negative on Sunday because it is vulnerable to the things on offense that the Bears are most comfortable attempting.
Philadelphia's Offensive Outlook
Given their defensive outlook, the Eagles will need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread.
December weather in Chicago aside, the Bears will be good enough defensively because they have improved against the run.
Most recently, they limited Green Bay running backs except for one nice carry from AJ Dillon.
But Aaron Jones mustered 26 rushing yards on nine carries.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts is generally not one to throw for a lot of yards, and Chicago's top cornerback Jaylon Johnson is healthy.
While Hurts loves to run, Chicago has been effective against mobile quarterbacks, recently limiting Falcon Marcus Mariota, for example to 1.9 YPC, although Mariota averages 5.2 YPC on the season.
The Verdict
Chicago has a real chance at winning this game thanks to its superior rush attack.
For your NFL bets, invest in the Bears to cover.
I also like the "over" because of Philadelphia's relatively vulnerable run defense and the potency of Philadelphia's third-ranked rush attack.
The Eagles will generate some big plays on the ground to ensure that the "over" hits.
Best Bet: Over 48.5 at -112 with BetOnline
