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My 10 best Week 3 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups. This year has started off on a solid note, as my first two weeks of selections have now gone 18-2 (90 percent) picking the straight-up winners and 12-8 (60 percent) against the spread.
Here are my best bets on Week 3's biggest games:
Note: All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
No. 14 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2.5)
Why is No. 8 Notre Dame a home dog to No. 14 Georgia Tech? There are a couple of main reasons. Notre Dame is without its starting quarterback Malik Zaire, top two projected running backs and its starting nose tackle (Jarron Jones), who are all out for the year. People know that the Fighting Irish are overpriced at home, which is why they are just 18-31-5 as a home favorite over the past 11 years. Also Georgia Tech has a lot of people following the hottest team in football, as the Yellow Jackets have covered nine games in a row including outright upsets of Clemson, Georgia and Mississippi State.
With that said, I like the Irish here, as my computer is calling for them to win the game outright. While Notre Dame has struggled against Navy's option in recent years, with two games against the option in 2015, the Fighting Irish probably spent a good portion of the spring and August prepping for it.
I like redshirt freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer, who is 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, has a strong arm and is athletic. He gained a lot of confidence with that big TD pass against Virginia on the road to pull out the win. Also, running back C.J. Prosise has looked great since moving back from wide receiver and has rushed for 253 yards (6.8 YPC) on the year. Notre Dame has nine returning starters on defense; they should circle the wagons and get the home win here.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31. Georgia Tech 27
Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-33)
Last week on College Football Live, I mentioned that Las Vegas had made bettors pay an extra price for the top teams in the country, as the top 11 teams in the AP poll were just 1-6 versus the number in Las Vegas when facing nonranked FBS foes. This week, the number seems a little more reasonable.
Last week Ohio State was coming off a Monday night game, playing on a short week and had everyone singing their praises during the week. They had just 363 yards of offense against a beatable Hawaii defense. Last year they were held to less than 400 yards of offense just twice and bounced back in their next games with 628 and 545 yards, scoring 66 and 55 points.
Northern Illinois has been to five straight MAC title games, and that will get the Buckeyes' attention, as will watching film of last weeks "disappointing" 38-0 win. So far this year, Northern has won by at least a couple of touchdowns fewer than I expected in both games. Last year the Huskies won 11 games, but when they went on the road at Arkansas, they were crushed 52-14, and that Arkansas team had come in 5-10 in the Bret Bielema era prior. Ohio State is at a much higher level.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 52, Northern Illinois 10
Air Force Falcons at No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (-27.5)
This is a nice situation for Air Force. Michigan State just had a huge game against Oregon that went to the wire, got the big win and now has a great shot at making the playoff this year. The Spartans do have only Central Michigan on deck but Air Force is a tough foe to play.
Air Force runs the option, which requires extra focus from the defense, and one breakdown in lane discipline could result in a TD. Playing in the Big Ten, the Spartans rarely face the option. They also have a lot of NFL-caliber defensive linemen who will likely be very concerned with the Falcons' cut-blocking techniques.
I am not concerned with Air Force being down to its backup quarterback, as the coaching staff has faith in Karson Roberts. Michigan State has a large edge but is in a letdown spot, and I can't see Mark Dantonio running up the score against a service academy, so this will be closer than expected.
ATS pick: Air Force
Score: Michigan St 41, Air Force 21
No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6)
Ole Miss has vaulted to No. 1 in the ESPN Football Power Index ratings, and its offense leads the nation in scoring at 74.5 points per game behind new starting quarterback Chad Kelly. The Rebels have a top-10 defensive front seven and last year beat Bama at home 23-17.
This game reminds me a little of 2013, when Alabama was a two-touchdown favorite at home but many were calling for an upset. The Tide were fully focused and rolled to a 25-0 win versus an Ole Miss team that came in averaging 38 PPG.
Alabama has my No. 1-rated defensive front seven, is at home and is playing with revenge from its only loss of the regular season in 2014. Alabama held some stuff back last week and only has Louisiana Monroe on deck, so this is the game the Tide wanted. Nick Saban has won his past seven SEC opening games by an average of 24.4 PPG and only once did he win an opener in that span by less than seven.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Ole Miss 17
Georgia State Panthers at No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-47.5)
Oregon impressed me last week and had the ball late with a chance to tie or win but came up just short against one of the top teams in the country in a very hostile setting.
Georgia State has a solid quarterback in Nick Arbuckle, who has thrown for 671 yards (ninth best in the country) and completed 66 percent of his passes. Georgia State is a poor team that is just 2-24 since joining the FBS ranks in 2013, but the Panthers have been an underdog of 15 or more points eight times in that span and are 8-0 against the spread in those games.
The Ducks are coming off that big game and have their Pac-12 opener on deck, so this would classify as a sandwich and a flat spot. Georgia State is on its second straight long trip but should keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Georgia State
Score: Oregon 52, Georgia State 17
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils (-3.5)
Northwestern has been a snake-bitten team the past couple of years but has had talent. Last year the Wildcats lost a lot of close games but still managed wins over Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Penn State. This year the Wildcats finally have a quarterback that fits their offense, as Clayton Thorson is 6-4, 210 and can hurt defenses both running and passing.
They took on a strong Stanford team and dominated them in the opener and I think they are still under the radar. Duke is a strong team, and the Blue Devils might actually be stronger at quarterback than they were last year. I have been very impressed with Thomas Sirk who is 6-4 with a strong arm. He leads the team in rushing and has hit 68 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
My computer has Duke winning by 3 but Northwestern outgaining them; I think I will be using Northwestern often in this section, as they are way under the radar this year.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 24, Duke 23
BYU Cougars at No. 10 UCLA Bruins (-16)
Last week I had BYU in this section, and in the final minute against Boise State they trailed by three and were just outside field goal range. For the second straight week, Tanner Mangum delivered a Hail Mary touchdown pass on fourth down, and the Cougars added an interception return for a TD in the final seconds for an 11-point win.
BYU does have belief on its side. If the Cougars enter the fourth quarter and the game is even close, they will believe they can win. They also have a Bronco Mendenhall defense going against a true frosh quarterback.
I like UCLA in this one because of the situation. UCLA is a superior team to both Nebraska and Boise State, the teams BYU has already beaten. Also, this has to be a letdown spot for BYU. It was an emotional road win, followed by a very emotional home upset win over Boise State and the Cougars now have to travel and face UCLA before a charged-up nighttime crowd going against them. This will be Mangum's first road start, and the gas tank might be empty.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 38, Brigham Young 20
Stanford Cardinal at No. 6 USC Trojans (-9.5)
I was very high on both these teams at the start of the year. I picked USC to make the 2015 playoff as the Pac-12 champ and the Trojans have looked the part. They have outscored Arkansas State and Idaho by almost 100 combined points (99), and their offense is putting up 623 yards per game.
Stanford struggled in Week 1 and got upset by Northwestern. Last week they bounced back and wiped out UCF at home 31-7 with a 491-181 yard edge. I still expect them to challenge Oregon in the Pac-12 North.
USC is a complete team this year, as its lowest-rated position unit in the front of my magazine is the running backs, who are 13th best in the country. Stanford's running game is not up to where I think it will be, averaging just 3.2 YPC. Last year Stanford lost at Arizona State on the road by 16 and at Oregon by 29. I think this goes a similar way.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 32, Stanford 14
No. 18 Auburn Tigers at No. 13 LSU Tigers (-7)
Line value is clearly on Auburn's side, as before the year they were anywhere from pick-'em to +3 in this game. After they barely got past Jacksonville State, they plummeted to No. 18 in the rankings, are now a touchdown dog and are getting beat up by the media nationally. They still are a 2-0 team with the same talent that had everyone calling them a national title contender, so if that is what you believe they are, then the value is there.
Last week LSU let me down, as watching the game early it appeared the Tigers were on their way to a blowout road win, but they let Mississippi State come back to cover the number (and almost win).
LSU is out to avenge its 41-7 blowout loss to Auburn last year and has won its past seven matchups at home against Auburn by 18 PPG. I had LSU favored by a touchdown in my rankings before the year and was impressed with quarterback Brandon Harris, who I think will have a breakout game here. Jeremy Johnson has not played up to my level of expectations and has not only thrown five interceptions, but he has also had about another five dropped. I will call for LSU to win this by 10.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 31, Auburn 21
UTSA Roadrunners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-24)
Last year the Cowboys had the least experienced team in the country, having to replace half their lettermen, and UTSA had the most experienced. Oklahoma State was favored by only two touchdowns but won 43-13 with a 477-206 yard edge.
This year Oklahoma State has 16 returning starters and UTSA is the least experienced team in the FBS with just six returning starters. UTSA did outgain Arizona in the opener 525-392 but last week probably showed its true colors getting beat 30-3 at home by Kansas State.
Oklahoma State has opened up slowly the first two weeks and needs to get in stride this week. The Cowboys have large edges on offense and defense as well as on special teams. Look for Mike Gundy to put the hammer down here and get his team firing on all cylinders for its game next week against Texas.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma St 44, UTSA 10
Phil Steele
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups. This year has started off on a solid note, as my first two weeks of selections have now gone 18-2 (90 percent) picking the straight-up winners and 12-8 (60 percent) against the spread.
Here are my best bets on Week 3's biggest games:
Note: All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
No. 14 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2.5)
Why is No. 8 Notre Dame a home dog to No. 14 Georgia Tech? There are a couple of main reasons. Notre Dame is without its starting quarterback Malik Zaire, top two projected running backs and its starting nose tackle (Jarron Jones), who are all out for the year. People know that the Fighting Irish are overpriced at home, which is why they are just 18-31-5 as a home favorite over the past 11 years. Also Georgia Tech has a lot of people following the hottest team in football, as the Yellow Jackets have covered nine games in a row including outright upsets of Clemson, Georgia and Mississippi State.
With that said, I like the Irish here, as my computer is calling for them to win the game outright. While Notre Dame has struggled against Navy's option in recent years, with two games against the option in 2015, the Fighting Irish probably spent a good portion of the spring and August prepping for it.
I like redshirt freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer, who is 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, has a strong arm and is athletic. He gained a lot of confidence with that big TD pass against Virginia on the road to pull out the win. Also, running back C.J. Prosise has looked great since moving back from wide receiver and has rushed for 253 yards (6.8 YPC) on the year. Notre Dame has nine returning starters on defense; they should circle the wagons and get the home win here.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31. Georgia Tech 27
Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-33)
Last week on College Football Live, I mentioned that Las Vegas had made bettors pay an extra price for the top teams in the country, as the top 11 teams in the AP poll were just 1-6 versus the number in Las Vegas when facing nonranked FBS foes. This week, the number seems a little more reasonable.
Last week Ohio State was coming off a Monday night game, playing on a short week and had everyone singing their praises during the week. They had just 363 yards of offense against a beatable Hawaii defense. Last year they were held to less than 400 yards of offense just twice and bounced back in their next games with 628 and 545 yards, scoring 66 and 55 points.
Northern Illinois has been to five straight MAC title games, and that will get the Buckeyes' attention, as will watching film of last weeks "disappointing" 38-0 win. So far this year, Northern has won by at least a couple of touchdowns fewer than I expected in both games. Last year the Huskies won 11 games, but when they went on the road at Arkansas, they were crushed 52-14, and that Arkansas team had come in 5-10 in the Bret Bielema era prior. Ohio State is at a much higher level.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 52, Northern Illinois 10
Air Force Falcons at No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (-27.5)
This is a nice situation for Air Force. Michigan State just had a huge game against Oregon that went to the wire, got the big win and now has a great shot at making the playoff this year. The Spartans do have only Central Michigan on deck but Air Force is a tough foe to play.
Air Force runs the option, which requires extra focus from the defense, and one breakdown in lane discipline could result in a TD. Playing in the Big Ten, the Spartans rarely face the option. They also have a lot of NFL-caliber defensive linemen who will likely be very concerned with the Falcons' cut-blocking techniques.
I am not concerned with Air Force being down to its backup quarterback, as the coaching staff has faith in Karson Roberts. Michigan State has a large edge but is in a letdown spot, and I can't see Mark Dantonio running up the score against a service academy, so this will be closer than expected.
ATS pick: Air Force
Score: Michigan St 41, Air Force 21
No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6)
Ole Miss has vaulted to No. 1 in the ESPN Football Power Index ratings, and its offense leads the nation in scoring at 74.5 points per game behind new starting quarterback Chad Kelly. The Rebels have a top-10 defensive front seven and last year beat Bama at home 23-17.
This game reminds me a little of 2013, when Alabama was a two-touchdown favorite at home but many were calling for an upset. The Tide were fully focused and rolled to a 25-0 win versus an Ole Miss team that came in averaging 38 PPG.
Alabama has my No. 1-rated defensive front seven, is at home and is playing with revenge from its only loss of the regular season in 2014. Alabama held some stuff back last week and only has Louisiana Monroe on deck, so this is the game the Tide wanted. Nick Saban has won his past seven SEC opening games by an average of 24.4 PPG and only once did he win an opener in that span by less than seven.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Ole Miss 17
Georgia State Panthers at No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-47.5)
Oregon impressed me last week and had the ball late with a chance to tie or win but came up just short against one of the top teams in the country in a very hostile setting.
Georgia State has a solid quarterback in Nick Arbuckle, who has thrown for 671 yards (ninth best in the country) and completed 66 percent of his passes. Georgia State is a poor team that is just 2-24 since joining the FBS ranks in 2013, but the Panthers have been an underdog of 15 or more points eight times in that span and are 8-0 against the spread in those games.
The Ducks are coming off that big game and have their Pac-12 opener on deck, so this would classify as a sandwich and a flat spot. Georgia State is on its second straight long trip but should keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Georgia State
Score: Oregon 52, Georgia State 17
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils (-3.5)
Northwestern has been a snake-bitten team the past couple of years but has had talent. Last year the Wildcats lost a lot of close games but still managed wins over Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Penn State. This year the Wildcats finally have a quarterback that fits their offense, as Clayton Thorson is 6-4, 210 and can hurt defenses both running and passing.
They took on a strong Stanford team and dominated them in the opener and I think they are still under the radar. Duke is a strong team, and the Blue Devils might actually be stronger at quarterback than they were last year. I have been very impressed with Thomas Sirk who is 6-4 with a strong arm. He leads the team in rushing and has hit 68 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
My computer has Duke winning by 3 but Northwestern outgaining them; I think I will be using Northwestern often in this section, as they are way under the radar this year.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 24, Duke 23
BYU Cougars at No. 10 UCLA Bruins (-16)
Last week I had BYU in this section, and in the final minute against Boise State they trailed by three and were just outside field goal range. For the second straight week, Tanner Mangum delivered a Hail Mary touchdown pass on fourth down, and the Cougars added an interception return for a TD in the final seconds for an 11-point win.
BYU does have belief on its side. If the Cougars enter the fourth quarter and the game is even close, they will believe they can win. They also have a Bronco Mendenhall defense going against a true frosh quarterback.
I like UCLA in this one because of the situation. UCLA is a superior team to both Nebraska and Boise State, the teams BYU has already beaten. Also, this has to be a letdown spot for BYU. It was an emotional road win, followed by a very emotional home upset win over Boise State and the Cougars now have to travel and face UCLA before a charged-up nighttime crowd going against them. This will be Mangum's first road start, and the gas tank might be empty.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 38, Brigham Young 20
Stanford Cardinal at No. 6 USC Trojans (-9.5)
I was very high on both these teams at the start of the year. I picked USC to make the 2015 playoff as the Pac-12 champ and the Trojans have looked the part. They have outscored Arkansas State and Idaho by almost 100 combined points (99), and their offense is putting up 623 yards per game.
Stanford struggled in Week 1 and got upset by Northwestern. Last week they bounced back and wiped out UCF at home 31-7 with a 491-181 yard edge. I still expect them to challenge Oregon in the Pac-12 North.
USC is a complete team this year, as its lowest-rated position unit in the front of my magazine is the running backs, who are 13th best in the country. Stanford's running game is not up to where I think it will be, averaging just 3.2 YPC. Last year Stanford lost at Arizona State on the road by 16 and at Oregon by 29. I think this goes a similar way.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 32, Stanford 14
No. 18 Auburn Tigers at No. 13 LSU Tigers (-7)
Line value is clearly on Auburn's side, as before the year they were anywhere from pick-'em to +3 in this game. After they barely got past Jacksonville State, they plummeted to No. 18 in the rankings, are now a touchdown dog and are getting beat up by the media nationally. They still are a 2-0 team with the same talent that had everyone calling them a national title contender, so if that is what you believe they are, then the value is there.
Last week LSU let me down, as watching the game early it appeared the Tigers were on their way to a blowout road win, but they let Mississippi State come back to cover the number (and almost win).
LSU is out to avenge its 41-7 blowout loss to Auburn last year and has won its past seven matchups at home against Auburn by 18 PPG. I had LSU favored by a touchdown in my rankings before the year and was impressed with quarterback Brandon Harris, who I think will have a breakout game here. Jeremy Johnson has not played up to my level of expectations and has not only thrown five interceptions, but he has also had about another five dropped. I will call for LSU to win this by 10.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 31, Auburn 21
UTSA Roadrunners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-24)
Last year the Cowboys had the least experienced team in the country, having to replace half their lettermen, and UTSA had the most experienced. Oklahoma State was favored by only two touchdowns but won 43-13 with a 477-206 yard edge.
This year Oklahoma State has 16 returning starters and UTSA is the least experienced team in the FBS with just six returning starters. UTSA did outgain Arizona in the opener 525-392 but last week probably showed its true colors getting beat 30-3 at home by Kansas State.
Oklahoma State has opened up slowly the first two weeks and needs to get in stride this week. The Cowboys have large edges on offense and defense as well as on special teams. Look for Mike Gundy to put the hammer down here and get his team firing on all cylinders for its game next week against Texas.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma St 44, UTSA 10
