E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 9

[NYGiants25]

My 10 best Week 9 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele

Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups. This year has started off on a solid note.

In the first seven weeks my selections have now gone 65-15 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 43-35-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS).

Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (+3) Thursday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
North Carolina has the stronger numbers, outgaining foes by 124 yards per game while Pitt is plus-49. However, upon closer inspection those numbers are flawed.

North Carolina has faced only one FBS team with a winning record (4-3 Illinois) and has played two FCS opponents. The Tar Heels also lost to South Carolina, whereas Pitt's only loss was to No. 10 Iowa. North Carolina has faced five of its seven opponents in Chapel Hill, with only one true road game; Pitt has faced five of its first seven foes on the road and this is only its third home game. North Carolina has an improved defense with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, but against a light schedule, is allowing opponents 6 yards per game above their season average. Pitt is holding foes to 99 yards per game below their average despite playing many on the road. There are an amazing 29 home 'dogs this weekend and I will pick the first one of the week to open with an upset.

ATS pick: Pitt
Score: Pitt 28, North Carolina 27


No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-9.5) at No. 21 Temple Owls 8 p.m. ET ABC
The only matchup of ranked foes this week features the Owls. Temple is a great story at 7-0, including a 27-10 win over Penn State, and featuring a defense that is giving up only 141 yards per game at home. The Owls moved up to No. 21 in the polls and will be on ABC in prime time.

That will bring a lot of attention and pressure to a team that hasn't been to a bowl game since 2011. Notre Dame will have a solid following of fans and already went into Clemson and had a 437-296 yard edge, despite losing 24-22. Temple has been outgained in three games this year and is just plus-39 yards per game on the season despite facing my 102nd-toughest schedule. Notre Dame is plus 129 yards per game against my No. 6-rated schedule. When the clock strikes midnight, Cinderella's unbeaten season will be over.

ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Temple 17


Maryland Terrapins at No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes (-17) 3:30 p.m. ET
Iowa really needed a bye the week before Northwestern as it was extremely banged up, yet the Hawkeyes went into Evanston and dominated with a 492-198 yard edge. Now they have had a week off and figure to be healthier. They are balanced on offense, averaging 214 yards per game rushing and 207 yards per game passing, and their defense is giving up only 294 yards per game, including just 2.2 yards per rush in Big Ten play. Maryland gave an all-out effort in Mike Locksley's first game as interim head coach but came up one point short against Penn State. The Terps are being outgained by 94 yards per game in Big Ten play, and Iowa is plus-103 yards per game. Maryland has lost four games by 21 or more points, and this will make it five.

ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 41, Maryland 17


South Carolina Gamecocks (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies Noon ET, SEC
Just two weeks ago Texas A&M was undefeated, No. 9 in the AP poll, and even drew a first-place vote. They have now slipped out of the rankings and the quarterback job is up for grabs. Their defense, while improved, is giving up 5.3 yards per carry, 68 percent completions and is being outgained by 71 yards per game in conference play. South Carolina is a team that is trending upward. The Gamecocks have new enthusiasm at practice under interim head coach Shawn Elliot. The Gamecocks won his first game and had a bye to put in new wrinkles to the offense, which might include some triple option. South Carolina is 3-4, but a win here would give it a shot at getting to a bowl and keeping Elliot as the head coach. An upset would not be a surprise.

ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 24


No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5) over Texas Tech Red Raiders 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Texas Tech has the edge on offense, but Oklahoma State has a large edge on defense as the Cowboys give up only 316 yards per game and the Red Raiders are giving up 562. In Big 12 play, Texas Tech is outgaining foes by four yards per game and the Cowboys are plus-131. Oklahoma State has won six in a row straight up in the series by 25 points per game (5-1 ATS). The Cowboys are fresh off a bye and a 58-10 win over Kansas. They've already won at Texas and at West Virginia, are getting stronger by the week, and I consider them a Big 12 title contender. Texas Tech has struggled against the big boys: The Red Raiders are 1-14 SU the last three years against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma, with their lone win coming against a 2013 TCU team that finished 4-8.

ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 38


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (+6) 3 p.m. ET
Georgia Tech is off a miracle win over Florida State. Now, it has to go on the road where the home team is 16-4 SU the last 20 years in this series, winning four of the last five. The Yellow Jackets are playing a ninth straight week, and Virginia had a bye a few weeks back.

Last year Jon Tenuta's defense "held" Georgia Tech to 409 yards, which was the fifth best of any Georgia Tech opponent and 73 yards below its season average. Last year's Yellow Jackets offense averaged 477 yards but this year is averaging only 404. Virginia is 11-3 ATS as a 'dog, including 5-1 as a home 'dog with two outright upsets and also near upsets of UCLA and Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is not in that class and has already lost five games.

ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia 27


No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+14) 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Michigan had a bye to recoup from the crazy last-play, botched punt loss to Michigan State. Minnesota just got the sad news that Jerry Kill has stepped down as coach and Tracy Claeys will be the interim head coach. Claeys filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a great job. Minnesota was a 'dog in six of those games and went 6-1 ATS with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. Michigan's defense is giving up only 211 yards per game, and Minnesota is giving up 329 yards per game. Michigan is averaging only 329 yards in Big Ten play, which makes it tough to cover a two-touchdown spread. Minnesota has won its last five as a home 'dog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons. I will take the points here.

ATS pick: Minnesota
Score: Michigan 20, Minnesota 13


No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners (-39) at Kansas Jayhawks 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
I made a mistake last week by putting Baylor on this page over Iowa State, as I didn't check the weather in advance, and it turned out to be a steady downpour. Early weather shows rain in the morning clearing out by afternoon and 63 degrees. My computer says Oklahoma is the fourth-best team in the country with both its offense and defense in the top 10. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and the Sooners have rushed for 319 yards per game and thrown for 274 yards per game the last two, although that came against middle-of-the-road Big 12 teams in Kansas State and Texas Tech. Kansas is much worse (Texas Tech was favored over Jayhawks by 32.5). Kansas's defense is giving up 581 yards per game in Big 12 play, including 5.5 yards per carry and 69 percent completions. Last year Samaje Perine set an NCAA record by rushing for 427 yards against Kansas. The Sooners have only Iowa State on deck. Oklahoma wins big here.

ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 51, Kansas 3


Georgia Bulldogs (+3) vs. No. 11 Florida Gators (in Jacksonville) 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Gators impressed me in their last game as they went into LSU without quarterback Will Grier and lost by only 7. Florida has one of the top defenses in the country, giving up only 314 yards per game, but Georgia actually yields only 308. Both teams are off a bye and Georgia is plus-64 yards per game in SEC play, and Florida is being outgained by 3 yards per game. Georgia holds the edge on special teams as well. A Florida win here basically puts them in the SEC title game, but believe it or not, so does a win for Georgia as both will be favored in their final two SEC games. Georgia is a 'dog for the first time in 24 games (at Auburn in 2013).

ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Florida 17


Oregon State Beavers at No. 13 Utah Utes (-24) 7:30 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
I went against Utah last week and they were handled 42-24 by USC. Normally, I like to go against a team that had their national title bubble burst, but here I like the home team. Utah has taken on the second-toughest schedule in the country and was playing with mounting pressure last week; now the Utes will be looser. Oregon State is in a rebuilding year and the Beavers have struggled on the road, being outgained by an average of 523-260 and losing by 29 points per game. Utah defensive players may show a little extra passion after their well-liked defensive coordinator Kilane Sitake left them for Oregon State in the offseason. Utah still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South.

ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 40, Oregon State 10

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 9 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 33-19-3 ATS (last wk: 3-3-1)
Coughlin: 20-17-2 ATS (last wk: 3-2)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10) at Temple Owls
Fallica: It's not quite Boston College-esque, but Temple's offensive/defensive efficiency splits are dramatic. The Owls are 10th in defense, but 89th in offense. And four of Temple's wins have come over teams that have two wins or fewer, including a 25-23 nailbiter vs. UMass in mid-September (a week later the Irish beat UMass 62-27 in what could have been a look-ahead spot for the Irish). Ten years ago this week Temple was 0-9 -- and steamrolling to an 0-11 mark (outscored 498-107 on year) -- so the program has made colossal steps forward. But I don't see how the Owls will match up in the trenches or score many points at all. The defense will keep the Owls in it for a while, but ultimately the Irish will pull away to a comfortable win.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 31, Temple 13

Coughlin: I'm worried that the Temple fan base is -- and was -- more concerned with whether or not College GameDay was coming to Philadelphia for the game, rather than the opponent that was invading the City of Brotherly Love this Saturday. I have been a huge fan of both these teams all year and they have two of the best defenses in all of college football. The question is: how will Temple go about this game offensively? Will the Owls come out and take shots down the field and try and get the Irish on their heels? Or will they play conservative and rely on their defense to win the game? My other question is with all the noise from Owls fans, will Temple even have a home-field advantage, knowing how there are Notre Dame fans all over the country? Golden Domers cover here.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 34, Temple 20


Washington State Cougars (+12) vs. Stanford Cardinal
Fallica: In Stanford's seven-game winning streak over Washington State, the Cougs have scored more than 17 points only once - a 38-28 loss in 2010. In the three years under Mike Leach, the Cougars have scored exactly 17 points each time. But this might be the year where Washington State puts a scare into Stanford. The Cardinal are just 50th nationally in defensive efficiency and have been winning with offense. Christian McCaffrey will get his yards, but so will Luke Falk. The Cougs are 4-0 ATS as a 'dog this year with three outright wins. Stanford wins, but it's closer than the experts think.

ATS pick: Stanford 40, Washington State 31A

Coughlin: Leach said this week that Cougars home games are like Woodstock back in 1969. If that's the case, then look out -- things are going to get weird in Pullman. I have played at Wazzu: It's a great home-field atmosphere when the team is playing well; it gets dark there at like noon; and you have to walk like a mile to get to the field, which resulted in a couple of our guys getting lost on the way to the field pregame - but that's a story for another time. Things are going well for the Cougs this year and this will be built up like their Super Bowl as first place in the Pac-12 North is on the line, which is the first time in a long time for the Cougs this late in the year. Falk comes into the game leading the conference with passing yards with 2885. I expect the Stanford secondary to be tested like it hasn't been yet this year. Leach will pull out all the stops in this game. Stanford wins, but Wazzu covers here.

ATS pick: Stanford 38, Washington State 28


Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5) vs. Florida Gators
Fallica: Last year, Florida's win over Georgia was one of the most unexpected results of the year based on how both teams had been trending. 418 rush yards? Really, Georgia? I would have to think that is a major motivating factor heading into this season's matchup. Both teams were idle last week and it should serve both well -- Florida coming off a hard-fought loss at LSU and Georgia an ugly win over Missouri. The winner here is likely a near lock for the SEC title game in Atlanta. I expect both defenses to play well and it could come down to a late FG -- and if it does, the Bulldogs have the edge. Underdogs have had the edge in this series lately, so I will let history and an edge in the FG unit make the call for me.

ATS pick: Georgia 24, Florida 21

Coughlin: I know all the money is on Florida already, and I don't care. This pick is totally based on the eye test. We all know everyone thinks the best front seven defensively in the country is Alabama, but I would be on the short list of people that would prefer the Gators front seven when it comes to rushing the passer. I think the defense from Gainesville is good enough to dictate what Georgia can and can't do offensively. I also know that the favorite is not the right side usually in this rivalry, but I don't care.

ATS pick: Florida 20, Georgia 13


Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Fallica: Oklahoma State has been vulnerable all three games away from Stillwater this year, including a sluggish season-opener at Central Michigan. Texas Tech nearly pulled a home upset of TCU earlier this year and after allowing 63 last week in Norman, the Red Raiders should put up a much better defensive effort. I've been in Lubbock Halloween weekend and it was unlike anything I've ever seen (the weekend Tech upset Texas). The Cowboys are 7-0 but haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year -- in fact only Central Michigan is even .500 -- and they aren't a top 20 team efficiency-wise in any unit. One of the Big 12 unbeatens goes down Saturday.

ATS pick: Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 38


Tulane Green Wave (+30.5) at Memphis Tigers
Fallica: Whether Memphis reaches a New Year's Six game or not hinges on the next three games for the Tigers -- Navy, at Houston and at Temple. I expect Memphis to go through the motions here, and that still might be good for a 31-point win, but Tanner Lee should help the Green Wave put up enough points to keep it within the number. The Tulane defense only allowed 291 yards to Navy last week. Hey, it's something to build on!

ATS pick: Memphis 49, Tulane 21


Air Force Falcons (-7) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Coughlin: Week after week this season I have found Rainbow Warriors trying to find themselves into our "Bad Beats" feature on SportsCenter, which even included a team playing them that kicked a last-minute field goal to cover 21.5 points on the infamous island. So, in regards to games on the island, if there was one team you could trust to travel to Honolulu and take care of business on the field, it would be a service academy, right? Now, would you be worried if I told you the Falcons have not led for a second of the 180 minutes they have played away from their home field? Don't worry, fly with the Falcons.

ATS pick: Air Force 31, Hawaii 19


Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-5.5)
Coughlin: Well it's not a chance to get a landmark victory, so you have to like James Franklin and the Nitts this Saturday, right? You tell me, name the big win the program has with him as head coach? OK, there isn't one. So, Franklin will have his guys fired up enough to avenge a loss in Champaign ... yes, they lost to Illinois last year. They're giving less than a touchdown, and there aren't many better in this spot than Franklin. Take the home team here.

ATS pick: Penn State 24, Illinois 14

 

[NYGiants25]

Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 9
Will Harris, ESPN Contributor

Two more schools lost head coaches, Baylor lost its quarterback, Arkansas and Duke won four-OT thrillers, and a pair of vastly overranked unbeatens went down in Los Angeles and Atlanta. This week we reiterate our longstanding message about the Miami Hurricanes program, check in on the Mountain West race and wonder about the best and worst of the two-loss teams.

Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.


Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 8
What happened with the Miami Hurricanes
In the two decades between 1983 and 2003, Miami posted 14 seasons with double-digit wins, one season with fewer than eight wins, eight conference championships, five national championships, 14 appearances in the big five bowls, and 13 finishes in the top six of the AP poll.

Since the school left the Big East for the ACC in 2003, there have been no seasons with double-digit wins, seven seasons with fewer than eight wins, no championships of any kind, no major bowl appearances and no top 10 poll finishes. And now the school has fired its third coach in that span.

Miami has failed to meet expectations on almost every level. Even the oddsmakers have been unable to keep up with the decline. Since its last national title, Miami has covered 43 percent of its games and suffered 10 losing ATS seasons.

So what happened? Well, nothing new. We get asked about Miami a lot, because the Canes have almost exactly fulfilled our own expectations. We've written for years that this is a below average FBS program and a bad job, that Randy Shannon would not make it through his first contract, that Al Golden was a no-hoper. Now we'll say that the next coach to be seduced by this position has little chance as well. To have legitimate hopes of national relevance, the Hurricanes would need to land Greg Schiano or better, allow him far more resources than his predecessors were given, address the stadium issue ... and probably on top of all that would need to have Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech miss on their next hires.

Miami owns natural recruiting advantages provided by geography. Otherwise, there are no edges to build on. Apart from the rich local talent base, the past success of this outfit was fueled entirely by two utterly irreplaceable factors: epic cheating and an equally unlikely string of Hall of Fame coaches.

Geography and other factors do not level the playing field in college football, but the reason that some programs succeed and others don't can mostly be boiled down to institutional support. (The institution's constituency is actually what drives the train, but for simplicity it's fair to call "institutional support" the single biggest factor.) Miami does not enjoy the institutional support required to compete nationally, and that's been reflected in the relative quality of its coaches and facilities over the past decade.

Best and worst two-loss teams?
There are currently 17 two-loss teams: NC State, BYU, Western Kentucky, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Bowling Green, Boise State, Washington State, California, UCLA, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Georgia Southern.

Apart from GSU -- the only member of the list with a roster that's just outclassed athletically -- we'll say the best and the worst both hail from the Big Ten.

Michigan has largely played like the top-12 team it was before losing to Sparty on the final play. The defense is still tops in the nation in total and scoring D. The offense might be inconsistent enough to call pedestrian, but many times has flashed the trifecta of efficiency, explosiveness and physicality required to be an effective unit. The special teams are well-coached and had the final play gone differently last time out that unit would be credited with winning the Michigan State game rather than losing it.

Most importantly, in just Year 1 of the Jim Harbaugh era, the Wolverines have championship makeup already. An open date is always perfect after a shocking defeat, and this team was showing some great mental signs after just a couple days. Seasons have been ruined over less than what happened in the 60th minute in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, but this bunch looks resilient enough to bounce back strong.

Christian Hackenberg and Penn State are arguably the nation's weakest two-loss team. Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
There are some pretty deep issues at Wisconsin, Georgia, UCLA and Texas A&M, but the weakest two-loss team right now is Penn State. The Lions' six wins include:

• Two uninspiring non-covers over physically outclassed underdogs Army and Buffalo.

• Three wins (Indiana, San Diego State and Rutgers) against teams whose circumstances had them playing their worst game of the year against Penn State. The importance of this cannot be understated. Following each team's story closely enough to know when one team has been catching a string of A+ or C- efforts from the opposition can expose over- and underrated teams before price adjustments are made.

• A one-point win against a Maryland team that might be the worst team in the Big Ten, in its first game after firing its head coach. Penn State did get Maryland's best effort in that game, unlike the aforementioned trio, but it's still not an impressive result. That's especially true when considering that the running game that had just put 195 yards on Ohio State managed just 48 yards at Maryland.

Penn State has six wins but has been outgained four times. The Lions have only caught a solid effort from a solid team twice, and both have resulted in three-score losses. The four defenses left on the schedule will all have the edge over Penn State's struggling offense, and Saturday's turn as a 5.5-point road favorite at Illinois is the best chance to ensure that 6-2 doesn't turn into 6-7 when 2015 is in the books.

Mountain West race shaping up
Undefeated division leaders clashed Friday in what might have been a preview of the MWC title game, and San Diego State came out on top. Way on top, bashing a very good Utah State team 48-14.

In San Diego State's three FBS nonconference games, all straight up and ATS losses, Cal, Penn State and South Alabama outgained the Aztecs by 175 yards per game. In four conference games, all wins and covers, the Aztecs have dominated, outgaining the competition by 222 yards per game and winning each by at least two touchdowns.

Two things have changed. First, attrition due to injuries and suspensions has eased, and the Aztecs have been closer to full strength than they were earlier in the year. Second has been the development of Kentucky transfer Maxwell Smith at quarterback. Smith completed just 42 percent of his passes with a lowly 5.9 yards per attempt through the first five games. The past three games he's completed 70 percent on 10.8 yards per attempt. The light has gone on for Smith, and when a team that runs the ball and plays defense as well as the Aztecs finds a pulse in the passing game, good things happen. The preseason favorite in the West Division has recovered from a slow September and is on its way to its first championship game appearance.

Utah State and Air Force control the Mountain Division, while Boise State joins the tie atop the standings but needs a Utah State loss to get back in control of this three-team race. Air Force hosts Utah State in Week 11 before traveling to Boise State in Week 12.


Games of Interest, Week 9

Arizona State (-3) versus Oregon
Our preseason pick to win the Pac-12 hosts a team we pegged for a losing season. The main reason that the first prediction isn't looking as good as the second has been the performance of the Arizona State offensive line, which has been even worse than feared while breaking in new tackles. Utah's Travis Wilson had all day to throw against Oregon, but the Ducks controlled their game with Washington on the strength of the pas rush. The Huskies are more of a drop-back passing team while the Sun Devils get the ball out a little more quickly, but Oregon should still claim an advantage on the defensive line. That will need to make up for the factors favoring Arizona State, which are mainly a rush defense that should hold up against Royce Freeman and friends, and skill players that should be running free in the Oregon secondary a good bit even if the Ducks generate a consistent pass rush.

Navy (-7) versus South Florida
Last week we wrote about this being the prime spot to capitalize on AAC membership bringing unfamiliar teams onto Navy's schedule. Navy's option offense is a very difficult preparation for defensive coaches that don't have much experience facing it, especially on regular rest. Our offseason study of first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen didn't turn up any clues that he might have seen much triple option, but we'll know more when he's asked about it this week. Divining Allen's level of preparedness is among our top priorities this week, as we're eager to fade a South Florida team that's not as good as its final scores make it appear.

Iowa State (+6.5) versus Texas
There's a lot going on in Ames this week, with offensive coordinator Mark Mangino out and senior quarterback Sam Richardson finally benched after a 1-18 record as a starter in Big 12 play. Expect to see a more run-oriented offense going forward, with freshman tailback Mike Warren the featured performer and new quarterback Joel Lanning chipping in plenty of downhill runs. Few programs circle the wagons better than Iowa State, so we'll be watching closely this week to see if an inspired effort appears on tap.


Movers and Shakers
Among the teams that saw their national championship prices shorten this week are Alabama (7-1 to 6-1), TCU (18-1 to 15-1), Oklahoma (60-1 to 40-1), Stanford (14-1 to 8-1) and Notre Dame (20-1 to 15-1).

Clemson didn't move off of 10-1 despite a 58-0 win at Miami, while LSU saw its odds lengthen from 8-1 to 10-1. Texas A&M and Florida State fell from relevance after losses, while Iowa and Oklahoma State remain in the picture, holding at 25-1 and 20-1 respectively.

There are few big moves in the Week 9 Vegas markets so far, but early bettors do like Vanderbilt coming off Derek Mason's first SEC win. The Commodores opened at plus-13 at Houston and have been bet down to plus-11.

Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS and has been dominating the weaker teams on its schedule. The Eagles were bet up from minus-21.5 to minus-24 at home against UTEP in a game that would make them bowl-eligible for the first time since 2011.


Chalk Bits
We talk a lot about bad favorites here, and this week not only deals us Idaho in a rare turn as road chalk but also 1-6 UTSA giving double digits on the road. Sure, winless North Texas is a bad team, but the Mean Green have notched two straight covers after opening 0-5 ATS. We'll be looking for an excuse to get behind them again versus a Roadrunners squad that's averaged just 19 points since the opener.

After going under a season-low total of 34 last week in a 10-3 Vandy win, Missouri and Vanderbilt remain the only two teams to go under the total every game.

LSU, Iowa and Syracuse are all programs we associate with defense and a physical, clock-eating rushing attack. But each has gone under the total just once all year.

Ole Miss has an explosive offense and a defense that hasn't been up to Land Shark standards, but the under has cashed in five of the Rebels' games.

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 9 CFB totals bets
Warren Sharp

Using an advanced metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.

Record this season
Full recommendations: 9-3
Split recommendations: 6-6
Overall: 15-9

Here are his top Week 9 college football totals bets:

Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels
Total: 55.5
UNLV is coming off of back-to-back games which totaled roughly 60 points each, and saw its defense give up over 30 in each against multiple offenses not nearly the class of Boise State. One of the reason UNLV's defense has looked better on the scoreboard than its stats indicate is it prevents opponents from getting into the red zone; the Rebels rank 32nd in red zone trips allowed. However, when opponents do get there, the UNLV defense ranks 94th in preventing TDs.

Their last game was against Fresno State, which ranks 123rd in red zone trips, and prior to that, San Jose State, (93rd). Boise State ranks 14th in red zone trips, and with a healthy RB Jeremy McNichols, the Broncos should have plenty of opportunities to get into the UNLV red zone and produce. Meanwhile, UNLV gets back the services of starting senior QB Blake Decker, the Mountain West's top passer from 2014, who has missed the last two games. His presence alone should open up the run game due to his ability to throw the ball downfield.

ESPN Chalk play: Over 55.5


Idaho Vandals at New Mexico State Aggies
Total: 63.5
Following their win over Louisiana-Monroe, the Vandals lost star receiver Dezmon Epps, who was suspended after allegedly assaulting his girlfriend. With that suspension goes a team-leading 61 receptions (next closest is 21) for 757 yards (next closest is 267). After facing a slate of strong, nonconference opponents including Mississippi and Georgia Southern, the Aggies thought they might earn their first win of the season at homecoming vs. Troy. Instead, they allowed multiple big plays and were down big early, before losing 52-7.

With this being the penultimate home game for the winless Aggies, they likely may start more focused and methodical to keep from falling behind like they did last week. And the suspension of their best receiver should take some adjustment mixed with a few early failings from the Idaho offense. Thus, despite these poor defenses, there are reasons why this game might start slower than expected.

ESPN Chalk play: First half under 35


Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Total: 38.5
Michigan had a bye week to ponder its huge loss to Michigan State, and while the remarkable blocked punt may have been the final factor, an unaggressive offense which played far too cautiously was a large part of the problem. Michigan was forced into 15 third downs and converted only four against the Spartans. Minnesota's defense is far better at forcing opponents into third down than Michigan State's. And Minnesota does a better job at limiting explosive plays. Lack of focus shouldn't be an issue for the Michigan defense off the bye, as it might have been if they played the week after the Michigan State game.

ESPN Chalk lean: First half under 21 (-120)


Western Michigan Broncos at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Total: 64
Over the last several weeks, the Eagles defense has faced run offenses which rank 58th, 67th and 123rd in run efficiency. Yet, they still rank as the least efficient run defense in the nation. The best run offense they faced this year was LSU, the 11th-rated run offense, which ran for almost 400 yards (391) and averaged 7.8 yards per rush. The Broncos offense ranks 21st in the nation, and is fully capable of replicating that success, given their 430 rushing yards (9.8 yards per carry) just two weeks ago. However, their game vs. Miami-Ohio saw them produce only 35 offensive points and the game went under the total in part due to the fact that Miami stacked the box against the run on account of windy conditions, the same type of conditions that may occur Thursday night.

As a result, I won't be on the over. But given the televised spot, if pregame conditions show a lack of wind, or if the wind appears to tail off late in the first half, I would potentially look to play the over at halftime.

ESPN Chalk lean: If not for wind, over 64

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Phil grasping at straws to justify a one point home win by PITT, imo. To say that UNC is the statistical favorite and then cherry pick some weak stats to back up your pick...weak. Take the Tar Heels.

 

[Schrute]

Thanks for posting these

 

[Timh]

Phil grasping at straws to justify a one point home win by PITT, imo. To say that UNC is the statistical favorite and then cherry pick some weak stats to back up your pick...weak. Take the Tar Heels.

And Phil's updated PR has NC by 6 on neutral.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Thanks for posting, NYG.

I always check your thread first when I get on the board.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting.

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 9 college football ATS bets
Will Harris

Utah wasn't favored in Los Angeles and Florida State was barely so in Atlanta; both dropped from the top 10 with losses. Boston College and Missouri combined for 267 yards, 14 first downs, 21 punts and a 1-for-28 mark on third down in losses to Louisville and Vanderbilt, respectively. And that was pretty much par for what these offenses have become. Seven wins and no blowout losses is a tribute to the defense being played in Columbia, Missouri, and Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Offense is being played by Toledo; the Rockets shrugged off a 28-10 halftime deficit on the road at Massachusetts with five straight touchdown drives within 15 minutes.

A 3-2 against-the-spread week has us at 26-25 ATS on the season. Read on as we back some home underdogs on Halloween night and find the best spot to pounce on an angle we've been anticipating for a while.

Note: All lines from the Westgate Las Vegas sportsbook as of Thursday, Oct. 29.


Navy Midshipmen (-7) vs. South Florida Bulls
We've had great success backing Paul Johnson at both Navy and Georgia Tech against defenses that were ill-prepared to face his unique offense. Ken Niumatalolo's teams offer the same opportunity, and we've been scouring the AAC for fresh victims ever since Navy announced it was joining the league.

South Florida in Annapolis, Maryland, with a touchdown price tag is the best spot to date. Willie Taggart saw Navy when he was head coach at Western Kentucky, but the Mids won 40-14, and Taggart is an offensive coach. First-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who has been with Hugh Freeze for most of his career, has not seen anything like this offense at this level.

South Florida is 4-3, but has been outgained in all but one FBS game. The Bulls have won three straight for the first time since 2011, and none of the players on the roster has had the experience of being patted on the back and praised around campus the way they are right now. It will be very difficult for what is in many ways an immature, undisciplined team to tune out the noise and focus while prepping for a team that's a notoriously difficult prep without an open date even for teams that have seen it before. Plus, quarterback Quinton Flowers is banged up to boot.

As for the Mids, don't read too much into Navy's modest offensive output against Tulane. The Green Wave used their open date to surprise Navy by showing an entirely different defense than they played in their two previous games against Georgia Tech's option attack. Tulane coaches also claimed that their offensive game plan was the best of the year, praising Navy's defense for its stellar play. Navy was outgained by nearly 100 yards and didn't sniff covering the 25 points, but this team caught Tulane's best game of the year and still won by 17.

Navy is playing great defense to go along with an offense led by a guy who is rivaling Roger Staubach as the best player in school history and an NFL prospect toting the rock at fullback. Keenan Reynolds' senior season and a schedule full of new opponents makes for a strong confluence in 2015, and we've been looking for spots to capitalize. This one is the best yet.

ATS pick: Navy
Score: Navy 38, South Florida 17


North Texas Mean Green (+8.5) vs. UTSA Roadrunners
North Texas is 0-7, but the Mean Green are getting our green this week. Dan McCarney was fired after a 66-7 loss to Portland State that was the largest FCS-versus-FBS win in history, but the initial shock has worn off and coaching and quarterback changes have taken root. The Green played their best game to date last week at Marshall, and are dialed in for what they consider a rivalry game with a UTSA team that has no business laying this kind of road weight to anybody.

ATS pick: North Texas
Score: North Texas 14, UTSA 10


Iowa State Cyclones (+6.5) vs. Texas Longhorns
It's been a tumultuous week at Iowa State, where offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was ousted and senior quarterback Sam Richardson, who was 1-18 as a starter in Big 12 play, was finally benched in favor of redshirt sophomore Joel Lanning, a physical runner known as the "Lan Ram." We credit the wagon-circling skills of Paul Rhoads, like the improving confidence of the defense, and have long been in favor of finding somebody besides Richardson and giving him a chance.

This is going to be a defensive game, with two offenses sending their quarterbacks and tailbacks between the tackles over and over. Most of the Texas staff and players have never been to Ames, Iowa. If they don't respect the challenge enough to bring their A-game, at least one talking head will use the phrase "Paul Rhoads special" in the postgame wrap-up.

ATS pick: Iowa State and under 51.5
Score: Iowa State 19, Texas 17


Washington State Cougars (+11.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal
No question Stanford's offense is rolling, though the defense isn't a shutdown unit and has given up its share of explosive plays this year. Washington State won't have an answer for Christian McCaffrey, but Luke Falk is piloting what might be Mike Leach's best offense since the 2008 Texas Tech squad that rose to No. 2 in the nation behind a veteran offense and wideout Michael Crabtree. A late Halloween night on the Palouse means home field is worth quite a bit here, and Wazzu can probably shoot it out for four long quarters.

ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Stanford 45, Washington State 42


Kentucky Wildcats (+9) vs. Tennessee Volunteers
The idea of some sort of serious Kentucky football renaissance under Mark Stoops is a fairy tale, but we like the makeup of this year's team and won't say that this bunch can't reach a bowl. Tennessee is still a few players short of 100 percent buy-in, and while the Vols have rallied a bit, this is still a fragile team. No doubt Stoops has received a solid scouting report from his brother, and the Cats figure to bounce back from a poor game in Starkville, Mississippi, with a much more spirited effort at home on Halloween night.

ATS pick: Kentucky
Score: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 31


UTEP Miners (+24.5) at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS, scoring points in bunches, and is generally much improved in Todd Monken's third season. UTEP, though, has regained the services of injured quarterback Mack Leftwich and will be a tougher out with him at the helm than it has been the past few weeks. The Miners could play keep-away here and bring this one in under the number, even with a big yardage deficit.

ATS pick: UTEP
Score: Southern Miss 35, UTEP 21