E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 6

[NYGiants25]

My 10 best Week 6 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele

Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.

This year has started off on a solid note. In the first five weeks, my selections have now gone 41-9 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 28-21-1 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).

So far this year there have been 15 meetings between ranked teams. The higher-rated team is 10-5 SU (2-3 last week) but the 'dog is 8-7 ATS in those matchups. This week there are only two games between ranked teams.

Here are my 10 best bets for Week 6 in college football:


Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) 3:30 PM ET, ABC
While neither team is in the top 25, this is a key game in determining the Big Ten West title, as both teams are very much alive. Each was upset last week, with Nebraska suffering its third loss in the final seconds of a game (or in overtime). The Cornhuskers were outgained by Illinois 292-382 but did lead 13-0 in the fourth quarter.

Wisconsin lost to Iowa at home last week but had a solid 21-14 first down edge and 320-221 yard advantage. The Badgers lost due to being minus-four in the turnover category. Nebraska does have the home and offensive edges in this game, especially since Wisconsin will be likely without WR Alex Erickson and TE Austin Traylor. The Badgers do have the defensive edge as they are allowing just 298 yards per game and are led by LB Joe Schobert, who had three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss last week. I feel Wisconsin is the stronger team and capable of winning on the road.

ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 21, Nebraska 17


South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 7 LSU Tigers (-18.5) 3:00 p.m. ET
I had LSU typed in as one of my plays before the shift in venue, and I'm still going to roll with the Tigers here. South Carolina is dealing with a lot of chaos back home and now must go on an unexpected road trip. LSU gets to stay in the comfortable confines of Tiger Stadium and now plays five SEC home games. South Carolina has a struggling rush defense that is allowing 206 yards per game on the ground (5.5 yards per carry versus Power 5 conference teams) and now faces Leonard Fournette.

Last week, I had Eastern Michigan when it was catching LSU in a flat spot. This week, LSU will be in full force at home with Steve Spurrier coming to town. The Tigers have already beaten Auburn at this site 42-21, and they led that game 24-0 at the half. South Carolina has failed to top 300 yards of offense its last two SEC games and was already pounded by Georgia on the road 52-20. Spurrier will likely be going for it on fourth down as he did often against Auburn last year in a game where he was a three-TD 'dog. The Gamecocks converted almost every time in that game, but this time will be stopped, which will give LSU a short field and turn it into a romp.

ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 38, South Carolina 13


No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7) at West Virginia Mountaineers 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
All the Big 12 talk is about Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, and this game is a key battle between two teams hoping to enter that mix. Oklahoma State is 5-0 this year but has not been as impressive as I thought it would be. The Cowboys have outgained their foes by 172 yards per game, including a 490-351 yard edge versus a solid Kansas State team last week.

I went against the Mountaineers in this piece last week, and the Oklahoma Sooners rolled over them in a 44-24 win in Norman. West Virginia does have its best defense yet under Holgorson, but its three impressive wins to open the year each gave the team advantages that aren't repeated here. The Mountaineers had the entire month to prep for Georgia Southern's triple option, and were facing their backup quarterback; Liberty is an FCS school; and Maryland is much weaker than last year's bowl squad and has not found a productive quarterback. I'm calling for Oklahoma State to pull the upset win on the road.

ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 27


Duke Blue Devils (-12) at Army Black Knights 12:00 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
The Blue Devils are 4-1 and just on the outskirts of the rankings at No. 27, but could climb into the top 25 this coming week. Duke's offense opened the year strong, gaining 593 yards per game and scoring 46 points per game in its first two contests. The Blue Devils have faced a pair of top-10 defenses the last three weeks in Northwestern and Boston College, plus an underrated Georgia Tech defense; they have been held to 278 yards per game in those contests. Now they take on my No. 106-ranked defense and should return to that early-season form.

Duke's defense has been solid this year, holding foes to 112 yards below their season average. Just two weeks ago, the Blue Devils faced the Georgia Tech option and held that unit to just 316 total yards. Getting to face the option twice in three weeks is a nice advantage. The clincher is that Army may be facing its toughest opponent of the year to date while Duke is playing one of its easiest.

ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 34, Army 14


No. 19 Georgia Bulldogs (-3) at Tennessee Volunteers 3:30 PM ET, CBS
This was thought to be the showdown for the SEC East title, but both teams now find themselves chasing Florida. Last week, Arkansas came in averaging just 186 rushing yards per game (low for them) but powered their way to 275 rushing yards against the young Volunteers defense. Georgia has one of the top offensive line and running back units in the country and last week rushed for 193 yards versus Alabama's vaunted veteran defensive front seven.

Tennessee has faced the tougher schedule, but Georgia has the defensive edge, allowing just 294 yards per game while Tennessee allows 414. This reminds me of 2012, when Georgia was ranked No. 5 and was trounced by South Carolina, 35-7, in Week 6. The Bulldogs bounced back and won out, getting to the SEC title game, and then nearly upset Alabama. I'm projecting Georgia to win out again, and it takes the first step here by winning on the road with the stronger team.

ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Tennessee 27


Navy Midshipmen at No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14.5) 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Irish have struggled versus Navy, with the Middies gaining 419 and 454 yards versus the Notre Dame defense and scoring 34 and 39 points the last two years. And this year, Notre Dame is in a large Clemson/USC sandwich. Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to South Bend. That's why Notre Dame is just a 14.5-point favorite.

I like the Irish here. Notre Dame is coming off a loss in which it actually outgained Clemson 437-296 but were minus-three in turnovers. Navy, meanwhile, was plus-four in turnovers in its 22-point win over Air Force. Watching the Georgia Tech game a few weeks back, it was clear Notre Dame spent a lot of time working on defending the option in the offseason and the Fighting Irish led the Yellow Jackets 30-7 before allowing two touchdowns in the last minute. Notre Dame has taken on my sixth-toughest schedule, while Navy has taken on my 109th-toughest slate.

ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 16


New Mexico State Aggies at No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels (-43.5) 12:00 Noon ET, SEC Network
This seems like a large number to lay, but there are numerous factors pointing to a blowout. Ole Miss comes in not only off a loss, but also off a game it lost by four touchdowns as a touchdown favorite. New Mexico State just played a tight game against rival New Mexico and has almost its full conference schedule still to come.

New Mexico State needs some wins this year, and coach Doug Martin uses these paycheck games as throwaways. In his three years, they have been a five-touchdown 'dog versus a Power 5 conference team on four different occasions. The Aggies have lost to Texas by 49, UCLA by 46, LSU by 56 and Florida by 48. Their offense is limited to running back Larry Rose, who has 589 yards and averages 8.3 yards per carry. I would expect limited carries from him as they have winnable games versus Troy and Idaho at home in the next three weeks and Martin needs wins to keep his job.

Finally, the Rebels have been held to just 37 total points the last two games. In the two nonconference games they have played this year, they have scored 76 and 73 points. They need some confidence on offense and have another nonconference game on deck.

ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 64, New Mexico State 13


No. 3 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks (+44) 12:00 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Last week, I had Eastern Michigan in this spot versus LSU, and the Eagles covered by 23. Baylor has the most explosive offense in the country and takes on a Kansas team that has generated three touchdowns the last two weeks facing Iowa State and Rutgers. Kansas is also without its top two quarterbacks due to injury. I like true freshman quarterback Ryan Willis, and he may just become a four-year starter and give them an upgrade at the position as he was recruited for their offense. Coach Art Briles has had 41 regular-season games away from home in his eight years and only twice has he won a road game by more than 35. Baylor is also off a big game against Texas Tech and has a revenge match versus West Virginia on deck.

ATS pick: Kansas
Score: Baylor 55, Kansas 19


No. 13 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (-8) 3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Michigan won last year's meeting between these teams by a final score of 10-9, with Northwestern having a slim 264-256 yard edge. Last year, Northwestern allowed foes 20 yards per game over their season average, but this year they are allowing 156 yards less than their opponent's season averages and just seven points per game total. Michigan had a top-10 defense last year and is even stronger this year, holding foes to 232 yards per game below their season average and just 184 yards per game total.

One of my nine sets of power ratings calls for a 6-3 final score. I like Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson, who can run and pass, as he is an upgrade at that spot over last year. This figures to be a tight, low-scoring game, and an upset is very possible. Michigan not only has to win this game, they also have to outscore the Wildcats by over a touchdown. I am taking the defensive 'dog here.

ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Michigan 13, Northwestern 10


No. 11 Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+5.5) 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
This is a tough spot for Florida. While the Gators gain confidence every week, I have to wonder how much they have left in the tank. They beat East Carolina at home by a touchdown. They then got past Kentucky on the road by 5, with the Wildcats dropping a couple of TD passes. Tennessee had the Gators beat 27-14, but the Gators got the huge and unlikely comeback to move to 4-0. Last week, they were sky-high as a home 'dog in the Swamp facing the No. 3 team in the country and won 38-10. Now they have a huge game versus LSU on deck and this is just their second trip to Missouri, with a 36-17 loss here in 2013.

Who will win the SEC East this year? Missouri's chances were thrown out the window when it lost to Kentucky, but the Tigers have just one SEC loss and likely control their own destiny. Their defense is allowing just 264 yards per game, and the offense looks stronger with frosh QB Drew Lock. RB Russell Hansbrough should continue to improve in his third week back. This figures to be a low-scoring game, and Missouri has the home and special teams edges.

ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Florida 16

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 6 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 24-8-1 ATS (last week: 4-3-1)
Coughlin: 13-10-2 ATS (last week: 3-1-1)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


California Golden Bears (+7) at Utah Utes Over/under: 61
Fallica: When last seen, Utah was rolling up 530 yards and 62 points on Oregon at Autzen Stadium. But in the first three games, the Utes didn't crack the 380-yard mark in any game and were held to 327 yards by Utah State. Turnovers played a huge part in the wins over Michigan and Oregon, as six forced turnovers in the two games resulted in 28 points. Jared Goff isn't going to turn it over like subpar QBs at Michigan and Oregon did. I expect Goff to move the sticks a lot, as Utah is 60th of 65 Power 5 teams in third-down passing conversions, allowing 60 percent of the third-down completions to go for first downs. The Utes are also in the lower third of Power 5 teams in sack percentage.

I think there is value with the underdog here, as people just see that Oregon score and are wowed. Well, what if Oregon isn't that good and that night was just a perfect storm? I think Utah is good and thought they would handle Michigan and give Oregon all it could handle. The Bears are used to playing in close games, and I expect another close one this week in Salt Lake City.

ATS pick: Cal 35, Utah 34

Coughlin: College GameDay will be in Salt Lake City for the first time since 2010 when the Utes were a member of the Mountain West Conference and got smoked by a visiting TCU Horned Frog team 47-7. I was there and it was not pretty. ... I'll leave it at that. What I can offer this time around is that this matchup is a lot closer in talent level than that 2010 game was. Many people have said this week they think the Utes deserve to be ranked No. 1 in the country based on their resume. I don't agree with that, but you can't deny what Coach Kyle Whittingham's team has done this year, beating Michigan and then blitzing Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Utah RB Devontae Booker is as a dependable, rugged player, and he comes in averaging 4.2 yards per carry. The atmosphere will be phenomenal Saturday night, and I think there will be a lot of points scored. I can see Cal falling behind early and then finding its groove offensively late in the game, perhaps a little too late. Take the over.

Pick: Utah 38, Cal 28 (over the total 61 points)


Michigan Wolverines (-8) vs. Northwestern Wildcats O/U: 35
Fallica: Both defenses have been great this year -- Michigan is second in yards per play and points per drive, while Northwestern is sixth in yards per play and third in points per drive. But I think it's going to be tougher for Northwestern to move the ball on Michigan here. The Wildcats are 116th in the country in yards per play and have settled for 10 field goals this year; only Charlotte is worse in red zone TD percentage. If -- and that's a big if -- the Wildcats reach the red zone, I'm not sure they can punch it in for seven, where Michigan has punched it in every time it has had goal-to-go this season. Wolverines move to 5-1 and set up a showdown with the undefeated Spartans next week.

ATS pick: Michigan 24, Northwestern 10

Coughlin: How many college games this year will have an over/under at 35? Let's just say I'm still looking for another one. I have watched plenty of these two teams so far this year, and both offenses are as vanilla as I have seen. Now, you have to realize and respect why coach Pat Fitzgerald and Jim Harbaugh have chosen this offensive approach.

Coach Fitz has a freshman QB, so you can wonder why he is keeping things basic, but it has worked. His team comes into Ann Arbor undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country in scoring defense. We all know the story of coach Harbaugh, and his offensive approach simply shows how stubborn he is in his ways, but he brings in a defense ranked No. 2 in scoring defense. So, what gives? Can you trust a freshman QB on the road and a shaky QB who transferred in conference? I really want to tell you to take the points with the visiting team, but let's do what makes no sense and take the over the total of 35 total points.

Pick: Michigan 21, Northwestern 18 (over the total 35 points)


Kansas State Wildcats (+9) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Fallica: The past 12 times Kansas State was a regular-season underdog of 7 points or more, the Cats were 10-2 ATS, including last week's controversial loss at Oklahoma State. The Cats are familiar with high-powered offenses, so this week's matchup with TCU won't phase them. Yes, TCU looked great last week, but how much of that was a quit effort from Texas? Remember the struggles at Texas Tech and Minnesota? Or the lethargic effort vs. SMU? I'm thinking that's the truer TCU this year. I'll back Bill Snyder as a big 'dog whenever the opportunity arises.

ATS pick: TCU 38, Kansas State 35

Coughlin: How do you feel about TCU? Many were worried about them after Week 1's unimpressive effort at Minnesota, then we talked about how vulnerable they were after a come-from-behind win in Lubbock, and now it seems as if everyone loves them because they scored 50 on Texas. I have no idea what to think of the Horned Frogs. The problem: what should we expect from Kansas State at home in a night game in The Little Apple with what looks like a fourth-string QB? Snyder is a mastermind as an underdog, and you can assume he will have his team ready to defend the high-octane TCU offense, but how much can the Wildcats contain them? I also feel as if Trevone Boykin still isn't as consistent as Gary Patterson wants him to be, and it seems as if we are due for a subpar effort after two impressive showings. However, the Bear is picking KSU, so I have to try and catch up. I'll take TCU here.

ATS pick: TCU 38, Kansas State 24


Tennessee Volunteers (+3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Fallica: Call me crazy, but I think this is a great spot for the Vols to get a much-needed win. Florida's win last week coupled with Tennessee's loss to Arkansas essentially means the Vols have no chance of getting to Atlanta for the SEC title game. Now it's about playing for pride. Fortunately for the Vols, they get a team even more wounded than they are with Georgia.

I really wonder how it is going to go here for Georgia. They had the eggs in the basket last week and were smashed again in a way we are used to seeing in big games. The Bulldogs' QB situation is a mess, and the offense might wind up being one-dimensional. Each of the past four meetings between the two have been one-possession games won by Georgia -- the past three coming as a double-digit favorite and the past two in excruciating fashion for the Vols. I know Tennessee can play with class teams, evidenced by near-misses with Oklahoma and Florida; I don't know the same about the Bulldogs. FPI has the Vols as a slight favorite here and I agree.

ATS pick: Tennessee 23, Georgia 20


Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Fallica: Wisconsin's offense really struggled last week against Iowa without Corey Clement, running 34 times for 86 yards. Expecting Joel Stave's passing to carry a team to victory doesn't sound like a recipe for success given his QBR of 54 this year (and 62 for career when he had Melvin Gordon to fall back on). After seemingly giving one away last week against Illinois, I expect Nebraska to bounce back at home.

ATS pick: Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 21


Ball State Cardinals (+10.5) at Northern Illinois Huskies
Fallica: Another spot to take the underdog versus the public-backed Huskies, and this time you're getting double digits. FPI has NIU roughly a four-point favorite here, so there is over six points of value according to that metric. The Cardinals have struggled offensively, but the defense has played well this year -- especially in the red zone -- outside of the trip to Kyle Field. Last year's 14-point loss to NIU hinged on a fourth-quarter pick-six. Expect another four-quarter game this year.

ATS pick: Northern Illinois 28, Ball State 23


Massachusetts Minutemen (+13.5) at Bowling Green Falcons
Fallica: I'll take another MAC underdog here as UMass comes in off a win over FIU. The week prior, the Minutemen gave Notre Dame all they could handle into the third quarter. Factor in the Temple game, and UMass has seen some fairly salty defenses this year; Bowling Green is not going to be one of those. Bowling Green beat UMass 47-42 a year ago, and it wouldn't shock me to see a similar type of game on Saturday given both teams are in the bottom 15 nationally in defensive efficiency.

ATS pick: Bowling Green 44, UMass 34


Iowa State Cyclones (+13) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Fallica: There is little appeal to most in Iowa State here, but if you look at the Cyclones' season, they played a much better defense in Iowa and were in a four-quarter game. Toledo sounds like a bad loss, but then you see the Rockets beat Arkansas (just like Texas Tech) and are one of the top Group of 5 teams out there. Kansas is a bad team -- the worst Power 5 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency. Iowa State did exactly what it should in that game: 38 points, 512 yards, 7 yards per play and 24 first downs. Texas Tech is 64th of 65 Power 5 teams in defensive efficiency so I again expect Sam Richardson to move the ball. Two years ago in Lubbock, the Cyclones covered as a two-touchdown underdog, and I suspect they will do the same here.

ATS pick: Texas Tech 45, Iowa State 35


Connecticut Huskies at UCF Knights (-2.5)
Coughlin: Have you heard of "The Civil Conflict"? Don't feel bad if you haven't, because I can bet you some of the players that are part of this conflict on the UCF side barely know about it either. The story is that this offseason, UConn head coach Bob Diaco created a trophy, cup and rivalry after beating the Knights last year in a big upset win. Whenever asked about this, UCF head coach George O'Leary has no idea what to make of it and is clueless to it and plays it off as not a big deal. So, looking at this game, who would you rather have in a fight? A team that's fired up for it because it's a big fight, or the team that doesn't have any interest in the fight?

I'll take the team who has the head coach with the best hair and gel job on game day in college football ... that being "Big Game" Diaco.

ATS pick: UConn 20, UCF 13


Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-9.5)
Coughlin: I could be on the total wrong side of this one, but here's how I feel: Florida State is as unimpressive a top-15 team as we have seen this year with road wins at Wake Forest by 8 points and a week prior winning at Chestnut Hill, scoring 14 points. I picked FSU to make the playoff this year, based off the belief of the ACC was down, and the Seminoles would still have most talent in the league. I don't feel good about that pick now. On the other side, you have a desperate Miami team off a loss at Cincy and, more importantly, a coach whose seat might be hotter than any other coach's in the conference. In times like this, I'll take the desperate team, especially in a rivalry game.

ATS pick: FSU 27, Miami (FL) 21

 

[NYGiants25]

Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 6
Will Harris

Week 5 saw a Top 10 shakeup as Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Georgia and UCLA all took a loss. There are now six teams getting first-place votes in either the AP or coaches' poll. This week we peek in on the race in the American Athletic Conference, choose to overreact or not to Alabama whipping Georgia, break down the Big Ten's overlooked defense and explain why we're backing the Pac-12's slowly rising king this week.

Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday evening except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.

Adjustments and takeaways, Week 5

Bama dominates Georgia
A rare miss on Alabama has us reconsidering some things, but in general we're more likely to overreact to Georgia looking like they just didn't belong on that stage than to Alabama's efficient offensive performance. Lane Kiffin and Jake Coker both had banner days at the office, but quarterback is still an issue and this offense is still likely to prove a downgrade from the 2014 attack. The ingredients probably aren't there for the Tide to win out. Georgia's troubles run even deeper than 2015 now; more on the Dogs below.


Illinois playing defense
The Illini shut down Nebraska a week after holding a potent Middle Tennessee offense to 368 yards. New co-coordinator Mike Phair has made his mark on the defense. It's playing with enthusiasm, playing aggressively, playing together, making game-changing plays and missing a lot fewer assignments than last season. That last factor is most responsible for the dramatic improvement in the rush defense, which gave up at least 194 yards per game in each of Tim Beckman's three seasons. Linebacker Mason Monheim is the key defensive leader; he and T.J. Neal are seasoned tackling machines in the middle, while safety Clayton Fejedelem and Leo rush linebacker D.J. Smoot have emerged as playmakers. This defense is ahead of a very banged-up offense right now, and for the time being will have to carry the team. Expect more low-scoring games with Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin the next three outings.

The American race shaping up
Navy and Houston passed tough tests this week, covering as favorites against Air Force and Tulsa, respectively. With Memphis, they form a formidable trio atop the American West, certainly the stronger of the two divisions out of the gate for the conference. After five weeks, there's a definite divide between the top and bottom half of the divisions. Current standings aside, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati are the best three teams in the East, and of the six teams in the bottom halves, Tulsa looks the best. The new Cure Bowl in Orlando gives this league a seventh bowl tie-in, and even just five weeks in, there's already enough separation that we'd be surprised if those slots weren't filled by the aforementioned seven schools.


Games of interest, Week 6

Georgia (-3) at Tennessee
We liked Georgia last week and saw the game as a very high-stakes affair for Mark Richt's program. This was the final exam for Georgia's two-year remodeling project. And the Dogs couldn't have looked less ready. This is a tough, tough loss that has even the faithful doubting Richt, and it will be difficult for him to navigate the program back into position for a statement opportunity as good as the one it squandered Saturday. But can Georgia follow Arkansas' lead? Need a win after a tough loss? Go to Knoxville and get healthy at the Vols' expense.

Last week we painted the Arkansas-at-Tennessee clash as a cultural referendum for a pair of struggling third-year coaches. Butch Jones' repetitive message is playing even thinner after another loss, and it's getting more challenging for the staff to keep this bunch together.

Richt's been good on the road, good off a loss and great as a small road favorite. If he can get his team angry, Georgia could run for 300 yards and Tennessee might quit. But there's certainly no floor on how hard the Bulldogs could be tanked after getting the message that they're not yet relevant. We'll have to see how they respond this week.

Missouri (+5.5) versus Florida
Florida certainly has some locker room mojo working and has been sparked offensively by the emergence of Will Grier at quarterback. But this team has spent a lot of energy the past few weeks, following up a road win at Kentucky with a series of miracles to secure an 11th straight victory over Tennessee and then an emotional blowout of third-ranked Ole Miss in a week when the team was weakened by the flu. To brush all that off and go win road games in Columbia and Baton Rouge is a tough assignment the next two weeks. We'll be trying to learn if Florida seems out of gas this week, and looking to Missouri to see whether the Tigers are an appropriate hammer if the Gators do indeed prove fade-worthy.

Missouri's Maty Mauk was suspended for the win over South Carolina and will be out indefinitely. That leaves blue-chip true freshman Drew Lock in charge of the offense. The team's anointed "quarterback of the future" had been sharing time with Mauk, and he performed well against South Carolina, completing 75 percent of his passes within a dink-and-dunk game plan that moved the chains 18 times. The Missouri offense has been struggling for reasons affected by every position group, not just spotty quarterback play, but Mauk's ongoing absence might actually serve to stabilize the offensive performance, rather than disrupt it.

Washington (+16.5) at USC
USC and Washington didn't play last season, but second-year coaches Steve Sarkisian and Chris Petersen have history. Petersen's 2012 Boise State squad nipped Sarkisian's Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. That game was played with foreknowledge of a rematch, as the two were scheduled to open the 2013 season in Seattle. There the Huskies won 38-6, handing Petersen the most lopsided loss of his career. As head coach of Washington from 2009-13, Sarkisian coached the Huskies in their last four meetings with USC. He won two and covered three, all as underdogs, against a USC program that was then his immediate former employer. Friday, he'll oppose his old team from Seattle for the first time.

We'll be backing Washington, this week and beyond. We've written since Petersen was hired of our belief that his Huskies will win the Pac-12's next national title, and this season would start a long winning streak against rival Oregon. Expectations were low for Washington this season due to quarterback issues and a serious talent exodus on defense. There were also significant cultural differences between the way Petersen operates and the way things were done under his predecessor. But Pete is building this organization nicely, and is well on his way to conference overlord status in the coming years. Opportunities to take this many points with this burgeoning power will not come often. It's also worth noting that Petersen is 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ATS following regular-season open weeks. After Washington's only 2014 open date, the team went to California and played its best game of the season.

Purdue (+3) versus Minnesota
Minnesota's struggling offense bottomed out in a shutout loss at Northwestern, and the injuries are really starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. The Gophers were our preseason pick in the Big Ten West, but the offense hasn't found a consistent formula, and health has been a big issue. We still expect this team to close strong in late November, but the Gophers will be nearly out of the West race if they can't get past Purdue.

We might end up passing on this one given a price that asks us to win outright with a program that's 5-24 over the past three seasons and Jerry Kill's excellent record in competitively priced games. But we certainly can't back Minnesota until later in the season. Purdue is looking good with David Blough under center and is playing with as much confidence as you'll ever see a 1-4 team show. This bunch is hungry for Darrell Hazell's second conference win, and a wounded Minnesota coming off a whitewashing certainly must look like a good opportunity. That's especially true given the Gold and Black's 39-38 loss last season in Minneapolis, a performance also crafted following a moral victory/cover versus a heavily favored Michigan State squad. Purdue is much-improved over last year's standard, and this looks like a spot the Boilers will bring their best.


Movers and shakers
Moves at the Westgate Las Vegas' futures market weren't as dramatic this week. Prices all lengthened slightly on Top 10 losers Ole Miss (10-1 to 20-1), Georgia (also 10-1 to 20-1), Notre Dame (15-1 to 30-1) and UCLA (30-1 to 50-1).

Clemson didn't move off 25-1 despite the big win, and Alabama is priced alongside Texas A&M at 15-1, a small change from the 18-1 listed prior to the Tide's demolition of Georgia. Michigan (60-1 to 25-1), Florida (100-1 to 50-1) and Utah (40-1 to 20-1) saw their prices shorten the most.

Minor shuffling at the top of the betting order leaves the current top five as:
Ohio State 2-1
Baylor 6-1
LSU 8-1
Michigan State 10-1
TCU 12-1

Oklahoma opened at minus-14 over Texas and was quickly bet up to minus-17. There were few moves of more than a field goal so far this week, including Houston from minus-20.5 to minus-24.5 over SMU, Western Michigan from minus-4 to minus-7.5 over Central Michigan, Boise State from minus-11.5 to minus-15 at Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic from a pick 'em to minus-3.5 over Rice.

Chalk bits
Paul Johnson has been confronted with the chance to snap a two-game losing streak in each of the past five seasons, and has been an underdog of between three and 10 points each time. He's 2-3 in those spots, with the winner covering all five games.

On the other side, Dabo Swinney hasn't had to deal with many potential letdown spots like this. The Tigers' biggest wins have come in bowls, and the only Top 10 teams Clemson beat in the regular season -- Georgia in 2013 and at Miami in 2008 -- were followed by easy victories over weak FCS teams. The only other storm-the-field type moment for Clemson fans was the 2011 win over defending national champ Auburn, then ranked 23rd. That was followed by wins over a pair of teams ranked just outside the Top 10, Florida State at home and Virginia Tech on the road. Notre Dame was at least as big a game for Clemson than any of the above, and this week presents Swinney with a different test of his program's maturity.

Baylor is an amazing 45-point road favorite at Kansas this week. Our records go back to 1976, and we could not find a larger home 'dog than the Jayhawks in a power conference game. Washington State took about six touchdowns at home from both USC and Arizona in 2008. The most points Kansas has seen at home is a five-TD price from Baylor in 2013 and Oklahoma in 2011. The largest home spread in a conference game? Oregon giving Colorado 47 at Autzen in 2012.

In the five seasons under Skip Holtz and Willie Taggart since Jim Leavitt was fired, South Florida has been favored 29 times. The Bulls are 8-21 ATS and 15-14 straight up. And the figures get worse if we remove September cupcake games. USF has covered just three out of 19 as a single-digit favorite. Syracuse is playing salty defense, and it's hard to imagine laying points with an outfit that's scored more than three touchdowns just three times in 25 FBS games under Taggart. Fellow third-year coach Scott Shafer's tenure has also been known for struggling offense, but the Orange have already scored more than three touchdowns three times this season, for a total of nine on Shafer's watch.

Akron was not favored in a MAC game in two seasons under Rob Ianello from 2010 to 2011, but since Terry Bowden came along in 2012, the Zips have enjoyed that status 11 times. They're 5-6 straight up with just one cover. We're not saying you have to go around backing Eastern Michigan all the time, but laying points on the road with a slumping Akron team with a broken offense is not part of a winning plan.

Last week brought us the highest total ever as Baylor and Texas Tech touched the 90s before closing at 89. This week Michigan and Northwestern sit at 35, the lowest total this season.

 

[Timh]

Thanks for the post :shake:

 

[bull]

Thanks for the post :shake:

Second that.

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 6 CFB totals bets
Warren Sharp

Using an advanced metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.

Every Thursday during the football season for ESPN Chalk, he will share his top totals bets for the upcoming college football weekend. On Fridays, he'll hit on the NFL.

Record this season: 6-0

Here are his top Week 6 college football totals bets:

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia State Panthers
Total: 59
When these teams met last season in North Carolina, there was a driving snowstorm with high winds. Georgia State's players took pictures of the snow and then were defeated 44-0. This game is in the fast track of the Georgia Dome, which will provide a great surface for Appalachian State (the nation's sixth-most efficient run offense). Last week, the Panthers allowed 5.3 yards per rush to Liberty, and before that, 5.9 YPR to Oregon, neither of which is as efficient as Appalachian State on the ground. Meanwhile, the Panthers tend to abandon the run and are extremely pass-heavy. They should find success vs. the 98th-rated pass defense of Appalachian State. Both offenses rank in the top 30 for explosive play offense and should find opportunities for them on Saturday.

ESPN Chalk pick: Over 59


Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Total: 68.5
This is a battle of two very pass-heavy teams that also happen to rank in the top 15 in passing efficiency, and both have poor pass defenses. The offensive metrics of the Blue Raiders have been depressed a bit by games against Alabama, Illinois and Vanderbilt, but their other two contests saw the Blue Raiders top 70 points. The Hilltoppers are running slightly slower than in 2014, but are a more efficient offense in 2015, and should find success when they do decide to run against Middle Tennessee (121st in run defense efficiency).

ESPN Chalk pick: Over 68.5


Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Total: 72
Texas State is coming off a bye, and with a new defensive coordinator. UL Lafayette must prepare without knowing what new defensive coordinator Brad Franchione, son of head coach Dennis Franchione, will bring to attack their offense. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns are getting much needed help defensively via the return of several players from injury in their previous game, as well as the return of pass-rushing specialist LB Darzil Washington, who missed the past three games. Both of these defenses have struggled, but the time off and change at the top can only help Texas State, while player health should give the Ragin' Cajuns a boost (UL Lafayette doesn't have another game after this one until Oct. 20). Additionally, Texas State is fresh off of games against Houston and Southern Mississippi, two offenses far superior in efficiency to UL Lafayette, and two offenses that rank in the top seven in explosive plays. With each team starting its conference schedule, intensity should be high; last season's meeting ended 34-10 on a 62-point total.

ESPN Chalk pick: Under (split between 37 first half and 72 full game)


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Texas San Antonio Roadrunners
Total: 57.5


After seeing UTSA's defensive statistics deflated due to games vs. Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Colorado State, we were on the under last week against UTEP, and the UTSA defense held UTEP to six points on the road in a 25-6 win. This week, UTSA will be without starting quarterback Blake Bogenschutz (undisclosed injury) to run its complex, no-huddle offense. In his place enters Dalton Sturm, who started the season as the fourth-string QB. UTSA ranked 112th in pass efficiency with Bogenschutz, so improving the passing offense without him will be a challenge. Bogenschutz played in just three games in 2014 because of a broken hand, and after averaging 25 points a game with him, the Roadrunners averaged 10 points a game until their season finale. Last season's meeting erupted in a lot of heated exchanges and bad blood, and I expect a high-intensity effort from both defenses.

ESPN Chalk pick: Under (split between 29.5 first half and 57.5 game)

 

[NYGiants25]

no problem fellas ... always interesting their "best bets" are the prime matchups of the weekend ... :shake:

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 6 college football ATS bets
Will Harris

After a Week 4 when fewer than six underdogs won outright, Week 5 saw four top-10 teams go down. Now there are 16 undefeated teams, and the only four not ranked in the AP poll are the four unbeatens from the AAC.

A 5-2 week picking against the spread drew the record even at 17-17 on the season, and this week we'll look to capitalize on an SEC squad's misfortune, fade an undefeated team that's surely a bit low on gas and take advantage of a bad team laying points to an opponent from a stronger conference.

Note: All lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Oct. 8.

Missouri Tigers (+4.5) versus Florida Gators
Florida has had a whirlwind two weeks. Picture the Gators at the beginning of the season: New staff. Low expectations. Perilously thin depth on the offensive line. New quarterback. Then, after a 3-0 start, there's a miracle comeback to extend a long winning streak over a hated rival, followed by an emotional home beatdown of a top-five team in a week when a flu bug hampered preparations. That's a lot of energy expended the past fortnight, and it's not hard to question what the Gators have left in the tank as they face a road date with Mizzou, a trip that many of their young contributors didn't make two years ago. The flu bug has hit the coaches this week, and while there's no question that this team has some mojo working out of the gate with its new staff, we'll say that road favorite status is a bit much.

Things at Missouri seem a bit chaotic as well, but Maty Mauk's suspension might serve to stabilize this offense in the short term. Missouri is playing better up front, has had its quarterback issue solved by default and is getting healthier coming into October. Russell Hansbrough's return is big for a group that's really struggled to run the ball in his absence.

ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 20, Florida 17


Washington State Cougars (+17.5) at Oregon Ducks
Oregon fended off Colorado by leaning on Royce Freeman and the running game, but the Ducks will need to throw and catch it better to keep winning conference games. Washington State is well-equipped to bomb away on the porous Oregon secondary, and the deepest defensive line rotation of Mike Leach's tenure will help the cause when Freeman has the ball.

ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Oregon 38, Washington State 31


Ball State Cardinals (+10.5) at Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois has won five straight MAC West titles under three different head coaches, going 38-2 in regular-season MAC play during that span. The constant has been a rushing offense that's churned out at least 190 yards per game on the ground each year. This year's team hasn't been as efficient offensively, and ball security has been an issue. We're always looking for spots to back an extremely well-prepared Ball State team that won't beat itself. The Cards are 6-1 ATS under Pete Lembo when taking double digits in MAC play.

ATS pick: Ball State
Score: Northern Illinois 27, Ball State 21


Syracuse Orange (+2) versus South Florida Bulls
South Florida improved from 13 points per game to just 17 points per game in Willie Taggart's second year, and so far this season it looks like the same story: The offense can't push the ball down the field in the passing game, has nothing to hang its hat on beyond the running of Marlon Mack and hasn't cracked 17 points yet in an FBS game. It will be tough to put up more than 17 on a salty Syracuse stop unit that ranks in the top 20 in most rush defense metrics. The Orange claimed a moral victory over LSU, and now are much healthier and feeling good about their prospects coming out of an open date.

ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Syracuse 20, South Florida 10


LSU Tigers (-19.5) versus South Carolina Gamecocks
Carolina is a mess offensively, as the ground game has been disappointing and the offense has no identity beyond hobbled freshman quarterback Lorenzo Nunez orchestrating some playground ball with ace wideout Pharoh Cooper. Having a local natural disaster cause a home game to become a road game is a tough deal in the best of times, but this team was already playing and practicing poorly. Now this becomes a throwaway game, one the coaches weren't optimistic about winning anyway and that now comes with a built-in excuse for a loss. It's not that hard to picture LSU beating Carolina by three scores even with the Gamecocks at their best, but the challenging circumstances plus the comfort of a home date with Vanderbilt and a bye week coming up next make this a game Carolina can afford to give away.

ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 42, South Carolina 14

 

[Eric8923]

Really do appreciate you taking the time to post these write ups.