E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 13

[NYGiants25]

My best Week 13 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele

Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.

In the first 12 weeks I have gone 89-31 (74 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 62-56-2 (53 percent) against the spread (ATS).

Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) at Auburn Tigers
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Nick Saban and Kirby Smart don't like to be embarrassed. Two years ago, Texas A&M put up 628 yards on them in a 49-42 defeat; in 2014, Alabama had a 455-51 edge in yards at the half and shut out the Aggies 59-0. Auburn made Alabama look silly last year, rolling up 630 yards. This year Auburn lost six players who accounted for 88 percent of those yards. The Tigers averaged 34 points per game in SEC play, but are averaging 20 points per game in regulation this year.

Alabama has the best defense in the country, allowing 2.8 yards per carry and a 47.6 percent completion rate versus the SEC and has recorded 38 sacks. Alabama was the No. 1 seed for the playoff last year and Auburn had five losses, yet Auburn was the SEC media's pick to win the conference this year. Derrick Henry got plenty of rest last week and Saban would love to have a second Heisman Trophy winner. Yes, Auburn is a rivalry dog, but in Alabama's last three series wins, the Crimson Tide have been favored by an average of 21.3 points per game and won by 29.3 points per game. They will be reminded they lost their last trip here on a kick-six. Alabama is 4-0 ATS away this season, covering those games by 16.6 points per game.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Auburn 10


No. 1 Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (+17)
Saturday, noon, ESPN
In the past two weeks, the undefeated teams are just 1-11 ATS, and four of the six have now lost outright. My twitter feed was blown up by Clemson fans when I had Syracuse (+31) over Clemson, yet Syracuse ended up covering by three touchdowns. This week, the situation greatly favors South Carolina as this line is inflated after the Gamecocks lost to an FCS team last week. This is their final home game and basically their bowl. Last year the dogs had a great season in the major rivalry games. I've had Clemson in pen in my playoff bracket since it beat Florida State. The Tigers don't need style points and they have the ACC title game next week. South Carolina stayed within three of Tennessee, seven of Texas A&M and 10 of Florida, and should keep this within the number.

ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Clemson 37, South Carolina 24


Wisconsin Badgers (-2.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, 3:30, Big Ten Network
I love taking teams off a misleading loss versus teams off a misleading win. Last week, Minnesota led Illinois 24-23 with the ball at its own 25 and Illinois having just one timeout with 1:22 left. A simple handoff turned into a 75-yard touchdown run to give them a nine-point win and cover. Wisconsin had a minus-five turnover differential last week versus Northwestern and had three touchdowns either called back by penalty or overturned by replay; despite that, the Badgers lost by just six. Against five mutual opponents, Wisconsin is plus-115 yards per game, while Minnesota is minus-53 YPG. I'll call for Wisconsin to hold onto Paul Bunyan's axe for the 12th straight year.

ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 17


No. 18 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (+1)
Saturday, 7:15, ESPN2
Dak Prescott is having an All-American-type of season. He's guiding the Bulldogs, who were the consensus pick for seventh in the SEC West, to an 8-3 record, with a solid shot at a 10-win season. I was most impressed with Mississippi State in its loss to Alabama. Three big plays in the first half were the difference, as the Bulldogs had a 254-180 edge in yards at the half, but trailed. Ole Miss is a solid team, but is just plus-53 YPG in SEC play and has been outgained in three of four road games.

ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Mississippi State 31, Ole Miss 28


No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5) at No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, 8, ABC
Both teams have one loss, but Oklahoma has outgained its Big 12 foes by 207 yards per game and Oklahoma State is just plus-41 YPG. While Oklahoma State beat TCU 49-29, the Cowboys were outgained 663-456 and benefited from a plus-four turnovers differential. Last week I pointed this out, went with Baylor and they dominated, with a 699-441 edge in yards. That includes the Pokes' 65-yard touchdown drive with 1:12 left, trailing 45-28. Oklahoma already went into Baylor and had a 28-18 first down edge, dealing them their first loss in their new stadium. Last year Oklahoma blew a 28-14 lead in the Bedlam game; the Sooners will get their revenge.

ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 27


No. 16 Northwestern Wildcats vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+3.5) in Chicago
Saturday, 3:30, ESPNU
This is the opposite part of the Wisconsin/Minnesota outlook. Illinois was better than last week's score, and had a 433-268 yardage edge until allowing a 75-yard touchdown run late. Northwestern benefited from a 5-0 turnover edge and some overturned Wisconsin touchdowns. Illinois needs a win to get to a bowl and is playing solid defense. My computer shows Illinois with the offensive edge, and they also have my No. 49-rated special teams unit. Northwestern has just my 121st-ranked special teams unit. Illinois should also get back dynamic running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn to team with Josh Ferguson. Illinois pulls the upset in a defensive struggle.

ATS pick: Illinois
Score: Illinois 16, Northwestern 13


Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13.5)
Friday, 2:30, CBS
Last week was the final home game for Gary Pinkel, and his Tigers gave a maximum effort, but came up short. Missouri has a solid defense, allowing just 339 YPG in SEC play, but its offense averages just 256 YPG. Last year Arkansas entered this game off two shutout wins, led 14-6 in the fourth quarter, but got complacent and lost. There will be no letup this year, as the Hogs don't want a second consecutive 6-6 regular-season finish. Arkansas' weakness is pass defense, but Missouri completes just 47.7 percent of its passes in the SEC and Drew Lock has a 4-7 TD-INT ratio. Missouri had a favorable SEC schedule this year, avoiding Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss, but it's the wrong week to travel to Fayetteville. I think Arkansas wins this one big.

ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 31, Missouri 10


Oregon State Beavers at No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-34.5)
Friday, 4, Fox Sports 1
Yes, this is a rivalry game, but these teams are polar opposites. Oregon is the hottest team in the country since Vernon Adams returned to health, and the Ducks are averaging 573 YPG over their last four -- that includes games vs. USC and Stanford the past two weeks. They're starting to regain their swagger, and unlike many past years, they don't have the Pac-12 title game on deck. Oregon State is allowing 639 YPG the past three weeks. The only thing that could slow Oregon down is the weather, but it'll be 42 degrees and sunny, which is good for this site at this time of year.

ATS pick: Oregon
Score: Oregon 51, Oregon State 13


No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (+1) at No. 12 Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, noon, ABC
Ohio State's offense was ugly in the rain last week, finishing with just five first downs, but the Buckeyes didn't trail until the final play. Neither team trailed Michigan State until the final play in home losses. Both are close statistically, with Ohio State plus-94 YPG in Big Ten play and Michigan plus-85. Ezekiel Elliott's postgame news conference has many wondering whether this team is falling apart. The key to me is that Michigan is favored, and the world is down on Ohio State. All my power ratings had Michigan playing seven to 10 points better than Michigan State, but I picked the Spartans a few weeks ago, and Michigan State finished with a 20-10 first down edge. Urban Meyer is a perfect 6-0 as a dog at Ohio State, and I think the Buckeyes play their best game of the year.

ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 23, Michigan 17


Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers (-5)
Saturday, 7:30, SEC Network
LSU lost its third game in a row last week for the first time since 1999. The Tigers were done in by big plays again, and lost despite rolling up 508 yards and holding Ole Miss to 95 yards below its season average. The good news is Leonard Fournette will be going up against the No. 13 SEC rush defense, as Texas A&M is allowing 229 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry in SEC play. LSU has played at Alabama, at Mississippi State and at Ole Miss and has faced my 18th-toughest schedule. A&M has taken on my No. 51 schedule, with just one game against an upper-half SEC team (Ole Miss) and was outgained 471-192. I think LSU is the stronger team, matches up well and is at home. Will this be Les Miles' last game as coach of LSU?

ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 34, Texas A&M 23

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 13 college football ATS bets
Will Harris

Last week saw the ACC and Mountain West fill their championship games, but plenty of division races have come down to the final week, including winner-take-all tilts in the AAC West and Pac-12 South, plus de facto semifinals in Conference USA.

A 5-1 mark picking games against the spread in Week 12 leaves our record at 42-36 for the season. Rivalry Week has us eyeing an axe, a bucket and a cup, and backing teams with bowl berths on the line.

Note: All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and current as of Wednesday, Nov. 25.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-6.5) at Tulane Green Wave (Friday)
The Tulsa offense lost its knack for big plays for a while after losing wideout Keevan Lucas, but the Hurricane is back on track with a balanced attack that boasts nine players with at least 400 yards of offense. Tulane is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, and ill-equipped to exploit the porous Tulsa rush defense that has been the Hurricane's biggest weak spot this season. Tulsa was 5-4 two weeks ago and since then has been competitive but outmatched by Cincinnati and Navy. The bowl-hungry Hurricane won't squander a third chance to seal the deal against a less talented team.

ATS pick: Tulsa
Score: Tulsa 35, Tulane 21


Minnesota Golden Gophers (+2.5) versus Wisconsin Badgers
We've been waiting for this game all year, and so have the Gophers. Wisconsin is the only West division team Minnesota hasn't beaten since Jerry Kill arrived, and it's been 11 years in all since Minnesota claimed Paul Bunyan's Axe.

Defeating the Badgers has been a key goal of this year's team since the offseason. The game's import is magnified now not only by the bowl berth on the line, but also by the Gophers' desire to get a signature win to honor their former coach. Minnesota has been bringing it every game since Tracy Claeys took over, but hasn't had the horses to knock off Michigan, Ohio State or Iowa. This one is a fair fight, and the Gophers will be dialed in.

Wisconsin was already having the most unimpressive 8-2 season imaginable, with zero victories over winning teams. Then came a controversial and difficult-to-swallow loss to Northwestern, and we doubt Paul Chryst can get this team fully refocused. Barry Alvarez hired the wrong guy, and the first bill coming due on that mistake is the Axe. After the game, both sides will acknowledge Minnesota just wanted it more.

ATS pick: Minnesota
Score: Minnesota 20, Wisconsin 9


Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) at Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech has won 11 straight Commonwealth Cups, and 15 of the past 16. It's Bud Foster's defense that has been the difference. In those 15 wins, Virginia has scored 14 or fewer points 11 times, and no more than 21 in any of them. Last year's 314-yard outburst was the first time the Cavaliers cracked 300 yards against Foster's lunch pail crew since their last series win, back in 2003. As usual, the Hokies have the better defense this season, and should be able to assert control of the line of scrimmage with their front four.

This Tech team has good leadership and plenty of upperclassmen on the field. Motivation is high, as this group certainly does not want to be known as the team that broke a 22-year bowl streak and sent Hall of Famer Frank Beamer out a loser. No doubt Virginia will bring its A-game in its last chance to beat the man who has been the Cavs' personal tormentor for the past decade. But the better team will do the same, and Tech's A-game is superior.

ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 12, Virginia 0


Indiana Hoosiers (-7) at Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is 5-0 ATS this season when getting more than a touchdown, and 0-5 ATS when getting one score or less. The Boilermakers have continued to play hard despite another tough season in the win-loss column, and the improvement from 2014 is evident across the board.

Indiana is a good team that's been brutalized by life in the Big Ten East. The Hoosiers can throw it and run it equally well, and will have too much firepower for the Boilers, even if running back Jordan Howard can't play. Purdue has its own injury questions, with quarterback David Blough unlikely to be available.

When Indiana entered its Week 9 open date, the team sat at 4-4 and fully understood the first two games were tougher than the last two. Close losses to Iowa and Michigan didn't deter a group that has known all year it's good enough to be the first Indiana bowl team since 2007, and the Hoosiers won convincingly at Maryland after a slow start. Now beating outmanned Purdue is all that's left between this bunch and a chance to bag the school's first bowl win since 1991.

ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Indiana 42, Purdue 24


Clemson Tigers (-17) at South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina might hang around for a while, but the Clemson offense is too explosive for a Gamecocks defense that lacks a pass rush and is bad at situational football. This underdog isn't unified or mentally strong enough to stop the snowball from rolling once it becomes apparent there's no chance to win.

Big underdogs are preferable when they've got a stake in the moral victory of keeping it close, and when they have the moxie and mental toughness to keep coming for the backdoor cover even when they're getting whipped. Neither applies to a South Carolina team without much chemistry.

Furthermore, the Tigers' firepower allows for some margin for error; the favorite would by no means be out of contention for the money even if tied at halftime. Clemson is healthier for this game than in recent weeks. That includes tailback Wayne Gallman, who will lead the charge against a rush defense that ranks outside the top 100 in 10 of the 13 rushing-specific defensive metrics we track.

ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 49, South Carolina 14

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 13 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 49-32-3 ATS (last week: 2-4)
Coughlin: 33-24-3 ATS (last week: 2-2-1)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Ohio State Buckeyes (+1.5) at Michigan Wolverines
Fallica: It's amazing to see Ohio State as an underdog here, but it might be deserved. Michigan is the team which has played with hunger and desire this year, on the verge of an improbable 10-win season. This is a dangerous spot, though, as Urban Meyer is 6-0 at Ohio State as an underdog. A loss to Michigan in Harbaugh's first year could signal a shift in power of the rivalry. While the Buckeyes have disappointed, Michigan still hasn't beaten a top-40 team this year and will probably have a lot of trouble with the Ohio State defense. After last week's hideous offensive performance, I expect Ohio State will throw everything out there -- Braxton Miller taking snaps included.

ATS pick: Ohio State 24, Michigan 17

Coughlin: I know things couldn't be worse for the state of the Ohio State program with how things have unfolded after the loss last week to Sparty, but if there is a coach who can somehow funnel that negative energy and turn it into a rage of excitement and motivation for the ultimate rivalry in the Big Ten, it's Meyer. I know that everyone has been so impressed with how Michigan QB Jake Rudock has looked the past couple of weeks in road wins over Minnesota, Indiana and Penn State, but I believe those are mediocre to below-average defenses. I think the Ohio State defense dominates this game and causes enough turnovers to make its offense turn things around and get a road win in "The Game."

ATS pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4) at Stanford Cardinal
Fallica: Why would I be petrified to be on Stanford here? I haven't heard anybody side with the Irish yet, and that's usually a good side to be on; plus, this number might go up even more. With all the injuries Notre Dame has, shouldn't Stanford win this game easily? The Cardinal has a Heisman candidate in Christian McCaffrey and an outside shot still at reaching the CFP. Even with all the perceived advantages Stanford has here, I will take the Irish with the points. The Irish have been a dog twice this year and came through with a dominant win over Georgia Tech and a two-point loss at No. 1 Clemson.

Notre Dame has overcome adversity all season long, so why should it stop and get blown out now? McCaffrey will put on a show for the Heisman voters and DeShone Kizer-to-Will Fuller will be shouted more than once. I expect a high-scoring affair on The Farm.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 35, Stanford 33

Coughlin: After seeing the latest College Football Playoff rankings this week, there is no doubt the most motivated team will be Notre Dame. First off, I like the matchup for the Irish because their defense is obviously their strength and matches up well with the Stanford offense, and most importantly I think the Irish run defense has the goods to shut down Heisman candidate McCaffery. Another factor you have to consider is Stanford lost fullback Daniel Marx for the season with a lower leg injury against Cal. I don't think the Stanford offense is balanced enough to keep the Irish off guard, which makes me think the Irish win the game straight-up.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 21


Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Fallica: Oh good, I get to miss on another Big 12 game! I think I have won one Big 12 game this year (Texas Tech/TCU), so take the next few sentences as lightly as one can.

I've been bitten by backing Big 12 favorites the past few weeks, so I will opt for the home dog here. After being embarrassed by the Baylor offense last week, I would expect Glenn Spencer's defense to play a much better game this week. And this is the end of a tough three-game stretch for the Sooners. Might they be a little tapped on the emotional end? In the end, Samaje Perine should be the difference as he gives OU a massive advantage in the running game. And that might be just what the OU defense needs to stay fresh against the Oklahoma State offense.

ATS pick: Oklahoma 34, Oklahoma State 31

Coughlin: It's Bedlam time, with what seems like everything on the line for the Sooners, plus we have the uncertainty of whether Baker Mayfield will be calling the plays for Oklahoma. With that information, I think the Cowboys have just what it take to ruin the Sooners' season, if not at least make them earn every point they need for a victory, which you would have to think makes them earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. We have seen how the pressure has built up on these Big 12 teams with this backloaded conference schedule, and I'm just going off the notion that I don't think many teams in America could pull off the three-game stretch that the Sooners are about to pull off. Take the home underdog,

ATS pick: Oklahoma State 35, Oklahoma 31


Illinois Fighting Illini (+3.5) vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Fallica: This game features two bad offenses against two above-average defenses. Northwestern has been held under 20 points five times this year, including last week when it put up just 13 points and 209 yards against Wisconsin. It's also one last chance for Bill Cubit to help his cause for a head coaching job -- whether it be at Illinois or elsewhere. There isn't a team the computer power rankings and the traditional polls differ on more than Northwestern (17th in AP poll, 55th in ESPN's Football Power Index). I'll take the points here.

ATS pick: Illinois 17, Northwestern 16


NC State Wolfpack (+7) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Fallica: I was really impressed with North Carolina last week in Blacksburg. UNC may have its detractors because of its résumé, but the Tar Heels pass the eye test for me. While the Virginia Tech offense isn't anything special, the Tar Heels made a ton of plays and were in the backfield all day. However, Jacoby Brissett is capable of making plays with his feet. NC State should score its share of points -- after all, the Pack put up 41 on Clemson and 24 at Boston College, which has one of the best defenses in the country. I will reiterate the stat I mentioned last week about UNC on the road: It has played one-possession games in all three true road games. I expect that to continue this week. NC State put a beating on UNC last year as a dog, so the Heels will be motivated to make amends for that. I believe they will, but it will be close.

ATS pick: North Carolina 38, NC State 35


San Jose State Spartans (+7.5) vs. Boise State Broncos
Fallica: I don't see why the Broncos are over a touchdown favorite here -- and maybe I'm being suckered into something here. Boise State has dropped two straight outright at home as a double-digit favorite and is 1-4 ATS in its past five games. The Spartans have cashed on six of eight, but need one more win to qualify for a bowl game as their last two losses have come by a combined four points. Boise is overvalued here because of its past success. San Jose State's defense has tailed off a little bit from its early-season success, but its offense rates 13 spots higher in terms of efficiency. With nothing truly at stake for a slumping Boise team, I'll side with the team needing a win to make the postseason.

ATS pick: San Jose State 31, Boise State 30


Purdue Boilermakers (+6.5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Fallica: FPI has the Hoosiers as a one-point favorite here, so there is a lot of value with the home underdog. Indiana needs a win for bowl eligibility for the first time since 2007. However, Purdue has been a very good dog this year -- 5-2 in Big Ten games and 5-0 when catching more than a touchdown. The Hoosiers have the worst defensive efficiency rating among Power 5 teams, so even if QB David Blough can't go, the Boilermaker offense should enjoy more success than they did the last two weeks vs Northwestern and Iowa. I'll go with the home underdog in a rivalry game.

ATS pick: Purdue 35, Indiana 31


UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans (-4)
Coughlin: It feels like Jim Mora coaches against a new USC head coach every time these teams play the past couple of years. To add on top of the rivalry, there is a spot in the Pac-12 title game and a rematch versus Stanford on the line. It's hard to fathom how impressive Bruins freshman phenom QB Josh Rosen has been this year. He has shown way more than the usual flashes that you expect from a highly recruited and touted frosh. And when you look at both teams as a whole, I just trust the Bruins more, especially when you consider what both teams did last week, as UCLA won in Salt Lake City and the Trojans got blown out in Eugene (against what I think is the best team in the Pac-12 right now). We'll take the points in what I expect to be a close game.

ATS pick: UCLA 34, USC 31


Florida State Seminoles (-2) at Florida Gators
Coughlin: This is strictly going against the grain here. Has there been a top-25 team that has looked worse in the past couple of weeks than the Gators? The answer is no. The playoff committee even dropped them four spots after their latest brutal-looking win against Florida Atlantic, which had to go to overtime. So why do I like the home team? It's a night game at The Swamp and this will be the best defense the Seminoles will face this season. Whoever starts or gets snaps at QB for Jimbo Fisher's squad will be running for his life all night long, as the athleticism of the Gators' front seven will dominate this game.

ATS pick: Florida 17, Florida State 14

 

[NYGiants25]

Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 13
Will Harris

It's the final week of the regular season for the eight leagues with championship games, while eight teams have clinched division crowns and berths into their league title games. Air Force will play San Diego State for the MWC title and Clemson and North Carolina will decide the ACC. Meanwhile, Bowling Green, Iowa, Florida and Stanford have locked up their divisions and are awaiting their opponents.

This week's juicy slate features winner-take-all clashes for the AAC West and Pac-12 South, as well as bona fide semifinals in Conference USA, where Louisiana Tech hosts Southern Miss and Western Kentucky hosts Marshall, with each game determining a division title and the winners advancing to play each other for the championship.

Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.


Adjustments and takeaways, Week 12

Farewell, Paul Rhoads
From coordinating Pitt's colossal 13-9 upset of West Virginia that cost Rich Rodriguez a shot at the 2007 national title, to the 2009 "I'm so proud to be your coach!" locker room moment following his defense's eight-takeaway performance in a 9-7 upset at Nebraska, to the 2011 win over unbeaten Oklahoma State that gave Alabama another shot at LSU, Paul Rhoads has left us plenty to remember about him.

We were surprised that Rhoads was fired, given his close relationship with Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard and the sharp uptick in the team's performance since midseason changes at offensive coordinator and quarterback. But 32 wins in seven years and a disastrous collapse at Kansas State -- one that saw Rhoads join luminaries like Barry Alvarez and Mike Leach in the infamous club of coaches who lost games in which victory required only execution of the kneel-down play -- was enough for Pollard to pull the plug.

The way this team snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at Kansas State was absolutely brutal, especially on the heels of the collapse that spoiled the Cyclones' upset bid versus Oklahoma State the week before. We were expecting this team to limp into the finale in Morgantown with something still in the tank. That had us really looking forward to laying two touchdowns with a West Virginia team that we rarely back but that is playing well and has its running game really cranked up. Run defense is usually where being in the tank shows first, and it was just hard to imagine Iowa State getting off the mat to prepare with purpose for this uninspiring season-ending road trip. We figured we'd be writing something later in the week like, "We admire Paul Rhoads' ability to forge teams with strong intangibles, but it's the intangibles that will get his down-and-out Cyclones rolled in Morgantown this week."

But things have changed. Rhoads' players will certainly rally around the popular coach, who will be on the sideline for the finale, and now laying double digits with West Virginia is out of the question. We might just change sides before the week is out.

Where does the program go from here? Iowa State is a consistently struggling program that has only been ranked twice and hasn't won a conference championship since 1912. Only one coach since World War I, Earle Bruce, has left Ames with a winning record. The list of failures includes the school's top two all-time win leaders, and two more coaches who won national championships elsewhere. The school, which fired its all-time winningest coach, Dan McCarney, just three years before hiring Rhoads, obviously wants to raise the program's expectations. Recent significant facility improvements are another clear sign of increased commitment.

But this program has to change its course. It is firing another good coach, one who knew how to instill a tough, hardworking culture and get the most out of inferior talent but still couldn't win enough games. So just bringing in a quality coach is not enough. Iowa State has to change the whole dynamic, and that means one of two things: different players, or a different blueprint. The Cyclones must either hire an ace salesman who can recruit the top-shelf players required to compete in a tough Big 12 that's full of better, faster athletes than Iowa State has ever had, or go off the conference reservation entirely and stop trying to beat the league at its own game.

The best stop along the latter route is Ken Niumatalolo, though we're not convinced he can be had. The Navy boss is a Paul Johnson disciple and the next-leading practitioner of an option offense that has touched five FBS programs. But whether it's a unique scheme, selling out to recruiting with a marketing makeover or some other original angle, Iowa State will have to differentiate itself from its Big 12 brethren in some way. The program has proven time and again that good coaching alone doesn't get it done in Ames.


Next QB In
Defense might win championships, but sometimes quarterback depth does too, and it's always something to think long and hard about when playing the championship futures market. Baylor and Michigan State followed the lead of 2014 Ohio State and showed off some impressive backup quarterbacks Saturday, winning elimination games to stay in their conference races.

Baylor's Chris Johnson was the third man up, but he took over for the injured Jarrett Stidham and put Oklahoma State away with two long third-quarter touchdown passes.

With Connor Cook shelved, Sparty kept the ball on the ground with an improvised two-quarterback offense that was heavy on quarterback runs, leading to matching eight-carry, 25-yard rushing totals from both Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry. It wasn't much, but it was enough.

The 5-7 teams shouldn't get their bowl hopes up too much.
With a record 80 teams needed to fill postseason games, it looked like this year was the best chance by far for the number of bowl spots to exceed the number of bowl-eligible teams. But with 71 teams now eligible, only nine spots need be filled and there are twice as many teams still on the six-win bubble. Of those 18, five teams are Big 12 or Sun Belt members with two games left to play. Three of those five are real long shots to make it to six wins. But 11 of the remaining 13 that close their season this week are either favored or underdogs of four points or fewer. It will be a very close call as to whether a 5-7 team is needed this year.


Games of interest, Week 12

LSU (-5.5) versus Texas A&M
It's hard to believe the boss of an athletic department as accomplished as LSU's might make the colossal mistake of intentionally attempting to trade in a Hall of Fame coach for the significant downgrade of Jimbo Fisher. Whatever happens, we expect LSU's players to respond to the noise, reclaim their identity as the most physical team on the field and whip Texas A&M in front of 100,000 fans -- Les Miles supporters, detractors and undecideds alike -- uniting for a night to make things difficult for the Aggies.

Virginia Tech (-3) at Virginia
There's no question Virginia will come to play in what the Cavs know is their last chance to beat the man who has tormented them for the better part of two decades. But Frank Beamer knows how to beat the Hoos, and his team will be locked and loaded in what is truly a must-win spot. We anticipate backing the Hokies for a third straight week.

No. 1 Clemson (-18) versus South Carolina
Road favorites in rivalry games aren't typically the first place we look for good values, but if Clemson shows up with something to prove, the Tigers can name their score. We'll be watching this team closely this week, because it's easy to see the favorite thinking that it won't have to prepare or play too hard to beat a team that just lost to The Citadel. But while the Tigers snapped a five-game series losing streak last year, they haven't won in Columbia since 2007. This could be an overconfident team expecting a cakewalk, but it could well be a team that feels like it still owes Carolina a whooping, and shows up bent on embarrassing the rival Gamecocks while they're down. The disparity between the two teams' best efforts is greater than the asking price, but this game -- like so many others featuring big road favorites -- will be determined by the mentality of the visitor.


Movers and shakers
According the the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the national title race is down to 13 contenders. Here are the last teams remaining on the board, with last week's prices in parentheses.

Alabama 3-2 (5-2)
Clemson 4-1 (7-2)
Oklahoma 7-1 (10-1)
Baylor 8-1 (60-1)
Notre Dame 8-1 (8-1)
Michigan State 12-1 (40-1)
Iowa 20-1 (20-1)
Ohio State 20-1 (11-4)
Oklahoma State 25-1 (12-1)
Florida 25-1 (25-1)
Michigan 30-1 (100-1)
Stanford 50-1 (300-1)
North Carolina 60-1 (80-1)

Naturally, the two big winners (Michigan State and Baylor) saw their prices drop, while Ohio State and Oklahoma State saw theirs lengthen. But Michigan's chances also took a hit, with Sparty now an odds-on favorite to win the division by beating Penn State at home.

The oddsmakers also realized that Stanford's price was a bit too high at 300-1 last week (and probably got a notice to that effect in the form of some big bets on the Cardinal.)

There are few big early moves so far this week, but Tulsa has moved from minus-4 to minus-6.6 on the road at Tulane. The Golden Hurricane need a win to get to 6-6 and bowl eligibility.

Surging Oregon has moved from minus-31 to minus-34 in the Civil War with Oregon State.

Appalachian State is up to minus-23 from an opener of minus-20 versus reeling Louisiana-Lafayette.


Chalk Bits
Comparing the Westgate's prices at the time of this writing to their last preseason "Games of the Year" numbers at the end of August, we see that there are several games this week that have moved more than 10 points from those preseason numbers:

Alabama is minus-14 in the Iron Bowl after laying two in August.

Oregon is minus-34.5 against Oregon State, up from minus-21.5.

Nebraska is plus-2.5 after laying Iowa plus-9.5 at the beginning of the year.

Clemson was giving South Carolina just three in August, but it's now minus-18

By kickoff, the biggest move of all might be on Jim Harbaugh's first Michigan squad, a 13.5-point preseason underdog to Ohio State. The Wolverines were taking 6.5 points as recently as last week. And now the game is a pick 'em at the Westgate, the lowest available number in a market that has the host as a small favorite at nearly every shop.

Texas is an elite program, but not every year has been a parade for the Longhorns. There were some rough times in the 1930s, three bad years immediately prior to the legendary Darrell Royal's arrival, three losing seasons in five years under David McWilliams and, of course, the rocky end to Mack Brown's tenure.

The Horns have had some bad teams over the years, but only five of them have ever lost to Texas Tech in Austin. And no Texas team has ever been a home underdog to the Red Raiders. So how bad is this year's squad? Only John Mackovic's historically futile final team in 1997 was less than a touchdown favorite at home to a Texas Tech program that owns just 15 wins in 64 tries against the Longhorns. For this year's Tech team -- one with arguably the worst defense of any power five team -- to be taking a point and a half in Austin on Thanksgiving night is a stark indicator of the current hard times in the Hill Country.

 

[Frank Costanza]

NYG....Can you post this? Thanks.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/insider/sto...very-bowl-game

 

[barisu]

Dec. 26


St. Petersburg Bowl


Connecticut Huskies vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (-4)
St. Petersburg, Florida | Tropicana Field
Dec. 26, 11 a.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 52 percent pick Connecticut


Coughlin: I am going to go out on a limb and say this will be the best defense the Thundering Herd will line up against all season. I will also add that no one in America will have their hair looking better at 11 a.m. Eastern on the morning after Christmas than Huskies coach Bob Diaco. He'll look good and so will his defense, which comes in allowing an average of 19.8 points per game (17th in the country). Give me the Huskies and their stud running back, Arkeel Newsome, who comes in ranked 18th in the country in all-purpose yards (1,621).


ATS pick: Connecticut
Score: Connecticut 17, Marshall 16


Hyundai Sun Bowl


Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Washington State Cougars (-3)
El Paso, Texas | Sun Bowl
Dec. 26, 2 p.m. on CBS
PickCenter consensus: 78 percent pick Washington State


Harris: The Cougars boasted another good quarterback and the deepest receiver group Mike Leach has ever had, but defensive improvements really keyed this squad's breakout season. That unit was headlined by first-year coordinator Alex Grinch and the deepest defensive line seen at Wazzu in decades.


Quarterback Luke Falk will be back under center for this one, and we doubt a Miami team finishing the season in a border-town bowl under an interim coach will play a better game than the Hurricanes did when the Randy Shannon era ended in the exact same scenario.


ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Washington State 37, Miami 30


Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl


Washington Huskies (-8.5) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Dallas | Cotton Bowl
Dec. 26, 2:20 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 67 percent pick Southern Miss


Harris: We've written often that Washington is the rising power in the Pac-12 and the best bet to win the league's next national championship. The Huskies didn't land the best possible bowl invitation, and laying heavy weight in Power 5 versus Group of 5 matchups in third-tier bowls is often a bad plan. However, the team closed the season playing its best ball of the year, and a postseason coach as accomplished as Chris Petersen isn't likely to tolerate less than full focus on winning this game after his team was embarrassed in last year's Cactus Bowl.


Southern Miss has had a tremendous season, and much of the credit goes to the growth of third-year coach Todd Monken. But now the Eagles have lost offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to Arizona State, and the offense that ran roughshod over Conference USA will meet its match in the Pac-12's top defense. The Huskies' running game got cranked up late in the year, and will be a big challenge even for a vastly improved Southern Miss defense that held Louisiana Tech star Kenneth Dixon to negative yardage two weeks ago.


ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 34, Southern Miss 17


New Era Pinstripe Bowl


Indiana Hoosiers (-1.5) vs. Duke Blue Devils
Bronx, New York | Yankee Stadium
Dec. 26, 3:30 p.m. on ABC
PickCenter consensus: 81 percent pick Indiana


Harris: This is a disappointing matchup and a very tough bowl to call, as we were looking to back both of these teams in the postseason. We love Indiana's veteran offense, and like the way the Hoosiers have prepared for this game. A loss would make this bunch one of the best 6-7 teams in history. However, it's impossible for us to fade Duke, whose preparation and mentality are as good as any bowl team you'll see. Duke is a passing team throwing against an overmatched Hoosiers secondary, while Indiana can score on anyone, so it's easy to buy the shootout narrative. But both the game and the total will probably hinge on finishing drives. Both offenses have struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone, while both defenses have been poor at preventing red zone scores.


ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 38, Indiana 35


Camping World Independence Bowl


Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-14)
Shreveport, Louisiana | Independence Stadium
Dec. 26, 5:45 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 53 percent pick Tulsa


Virginia Tech represents a big step up in class for Tulsa, as suggested by the latter's negative 600-yard margin in AAC play and unimpressive 10-point home win against the worst Louisiana-Monroe team in more than a decade. Frank Beamer is ending his 23-year bowl streak where it began, and Hokies historians will recognize our projected score.


ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 45, Tulsa 20




Foster Farms Bowl


UCLA Bruins (-6.5) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Santa Clara, California | Levi's Stadium
Dec. 26, 9:15 p.m. on ESPN


PickCenter consensus: 70 percent pick Nebraska


Harris: Nebraska is an amply talented team with a chip on its shoulder over being told it doesn't deserve to be here. The Huskers played their best ball in November, and are led by a top bowl coach and an improving quarterback with a pretty sporty bowl track record. The Bruins' regular season ended with a thud and now they're assigned to a humble, nearby bowl against a 5-7 outfit that the fourth- and fifth-year players have already beaten twice. Mike Riley and Tommy Armstrong will outperform their UCLA counterparts, while the Huskers run the ball consistently, stay ahead of the chains and keep the Bruins' offense on the bench. This is easily our favorite bowl play to date.


ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 34, UCLA 24


Fallica: How many times between now and kickoff will we hear that Nebraska went 5-7 this year and shouldn't be in a bowl game? Well, the snake-bitten Huskers clearly have the talent to play with the nation's elite, as evidenced by a win over Michigan State and a four-quarter game with Iowa. This will be a big deal for Mike Riley and the Huskers, who can end the year on a high note with a win in the state of California, where Riley would like to grab recruits from. Nebraska has thrown an amazing 13 interceptions in the last four games, so the Huskers need to eliminate those. But is UCLA really going to be excited about playing in a half-full (maybe) stadium in Northern California after it was blown out by its rival with a chance to play for the Pac-12 title in that stadium and a Rose Bowl berth?


Josh Rosen has a huge future, but with all the injuries the Bruins have suffered this year along with dreams of a Pac-12 title gone, I don't know how much is left in the tank. Remember that last year Nebraska went to California and played USC tough in a bowl game. Sneaky-good upset chance here.


ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 38, UCLA 31


Dec. 28


Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman


Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Navy Midshipmen (-3.5)
Annapolis, Maryland | Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Dec. 28, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 60 percent pick Navy


Quick Lane Bowl


Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6)
Detroit | Ford Field
Dec. 28, 5 p.m. on ESPN2
PickCenter consensus: 52 percent pick Minnesota


Dec. 29


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl


California Golden Bears (-7) vs. Air Force Falcons
Ft. Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium
Dec. 29, 2 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick Air Force


Russell Athletic Bowl


North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Baylor Bears (-2.5)
Orlando | Orlando Citrus Bowl
Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 74 percent pick Baylor


NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl


Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Colorado State Rams (-3)
Tucson, Arizona | Arizona Stadium
Dec. 29, 7:30 p.m. on Campus Insiders/American Sports Network
PickCenter consensus: 78 percent pick Colorado State


AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl


LSU Tigers (-7) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Houston | NRG Stadium
Dec. 29, 9 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 72 percent pick Texas Tech


Harris: Players and coaches say all kind of ridiculous things in response to questions from the media, but Texas Tech fans have to be concerned that members of an already seemingly overmatched defense are comparing LSU's Leonard Fournette to Oklahoma's Joe Mixon. The price on this game suggests a 40-33 final, and we'll be among the majority expressing surprise if the Tigers can't hold up their end of the deal. The Tech rushing defense has shown absolutely no sign that it can deliver in this bout, and while the Red Raiders do own an early-season road win at a physical, downhill SEC West team (Arkansas), LSU in December presents a different challenge.


The liability that is LSU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele will keep us from really sending it in heavy on this or any other LSU game until a change is made, but the Tigers probably project enough offense in this matchup to make investment worthwhile.


ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 52, Texas Tech 38


College Football PickCenter


Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Solar: The Tigers opened as 5-point favorites and have received 74 percent of spread bets. This high level of public support has moved the line from -5 to -7.


Since there have been no steam moves triggered on this game, we can assert that public money is solely responsible for this 2-point line move. That's fantastic news for opportunistic contrarian bettors.


LSU is still dealing with the fallout from Les Miles' awkward return, and it will be interesting to see whether the team comes out looking sluggish after dealing with this mini-drama. Playing in Houston you can safely expect a strong showing from the Red Raider faithful, which should give Texas Tech an effective home field advantage. Kliff Kingsbury may remind fans of Ryan Gosling but, as we found out in a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, the Texas Tech coach is much cooler under pressure than his actor doppelganger.


Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair, but we like the Red Raiders to keep it close and cover the seven-point spread.


ATS pick: Texas Tech


Fallica: Oh, if only we knew how LSU was going to approach this game offensively. Will the Tigers simply run Leonard Fournette against one of the worst Power 5 defenses out there? Or will Les Miles begin 2016 preparations here and start to throw the ball a bit more and evolve the offensive game plan some? Will the players be happy with "saving" Miles' job versus Texas A&M, which really marked the end of the season for them?


One thing I do know is that Texas Tech is going to score (second nationally in offensive efficiency). The Red Raiders also did a good job defensively against Arkansas earlier this year, and Arkansas is probably a better team than LSU right now. Texas Tech is used to pulling off bowl upsets and LSU has been a poor bowl team lately (the Tigers haven't covered a bowl game as a favorite since 2010). With that track record, I would certainty lean towards taking the points and an offense that will be hard to keep out of the end zone.


ATS pick: Texas Tech
Score: Texas Tech 35, LSU 34


Dec. 30


Birmingham Bowl


Auburn Tigers (-2.5) vs. Memphis Tigers
Birmingham, Alabama | Legion Field
Dec. 30, noon on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick Auburn


Steele: This game is all about the talent differential. Memphis has had the better season statistically, but aside from the quarterback, Auburn has the talent edge at every other position. Auburn has coach Gus Malzahn, who nearly won a national title as a head coach (and did win one as its offensive coordinator), while Memphis has first-year coach Mike Norvell, the former Arizona State offensive coordinator who was hired Dec. 3 to replace Justin Fuente (now the coach at Virginia Tech).


Memphis QB Paxton Lynch has had a fine season and should be able to have success against my No. 45-ranked pass-efficiency defense, but Auburn is battle-tested after having gone through the SEC. Auburn has played my 13th-toughest schedule, while Memphis has played just my No. 72-ranked slate. Auburn can't afford to have a losing season, and I'll call for them to outlast Memphis. Jeremy Johnson could have his best game of the season versus a middle-of-the-road Memphis defense.


ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 37, Memphis 27


Belk Bowl


NC State Wolfpack vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-4.5)
Charlotte, N.C. | Bank of America Stadium
Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 80 percent pick Mississippi State


Fallica: It's ironic that Dak Prescott's final college game is against NC State. I can see the Bulldogs treating this game like the Wolfpack did Philip Rivers' final college game -- allowing him to put up the biggest numbers possible. I know the game is in Charlotte, but NC State hasn't beaten anyone this season. Here are NC State's wins: Troy (4-8), Eastern Kentucky (FCS), Old Dominion (5-7), South Alabama (5-7), Wake Forest (3-9), Boston College (3-9) and Syracuse (4-8).


None of those are close to the quality of Mississippi State (18th in offensive efficiency, 35th in defensive efficiency). The Bulldogs are better offensively and infinitely better defensively than the Wolfpack. And State is familiar with a dual threat QB, as it faces Prescott in practice each day. That will help against Jacoby Brissett. I'll go with the team looking to end the season on a better note than last year and send its record-setting QB out a winner.


ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Mississippi State 41, NC State 27


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl


Texas A&M Aggies vs. Louisville Cardinals (-2.5)
Nashville | Nissan Stadium
Dec. 30, 7 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 54 percent pick Texas A&M


Holiday Bowl


USC Trojans (-3) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
San Diego | Qualcomm Stadium
Dec. 30, 10:30 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 83 percent pick Wisconsin


Steele: When I first started breaking down this game I was leaning with Wisconsin, which has the better defense. The Badgers lost only three games, while USC has lost five. However, the Trojans do have a large edge at the skill positions with quarterback Cody Kessler and running backs Ronald Jones II, Justin Davis and Tre Madden. For the season, those three backs combined to rush for 2,271 yards, averaging 5.9 YPC.


For Wisconsin, this was not a typical year for the offense. Last season, the Badgers averaged 320 rushing yards per game on 6.9 YPC; in 2015, they averaged just 148 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC. USC is more battle-tested, as the Trojans have taken on my third-toughest schedule this season, while Wisconsin has played my 73rd-toughest slate. Clay Helton is officially USC's coach after the school removed the interim tag on Nov. 30. I'll side with USC and its talent edge.


ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 28, Wisconsin 20


Dec. 31


Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl


Houston Cougars vs. Florida State Seminoles (-7)
Atlanta | Georgia Dome
Dec. 31, noon on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 53 percent pick Houston


Steele: It's normally tough for a Power 5 conference team to get up for a Group of 5 conference team in a major bowl. Boise State upset Arizona and Oklahoma, while UCF upset Baylor in recent scenarios; Florida State was in a similar spot and beat Northern Illinois in the 2013 Orange Bowl.


Houston has lost just one game and quarterback Greg Ward Jr. didn't start it. It was the Cougars' least important game of the month and Connecticut's most important. The Cougars rebounded from that 20-17 loss to blast Navy and Temple by 16 points per game. Houston coach Tom Herman has implemented an offense that averages 240 rushing yards per game and 247 passing yards per game.


While the offensive coordinator at Ohio State last year, he implemented a great game plan in the CFB playoff against Alabama. Florida State has been to the CFB playoff each of the past two years and could be disappointed to be here, but the Seminoles have the edge at every position except quarterback and have played a much tougher schedule. Dalvin Cook should be as healthy as he has been all year and coach Jimbo Fisher is 4-1 SU in bowl games.


ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 34, Houston 21


Fallica: Florida State found itself in a similar spot a few years ago when the Noles blasted "Group of 5/Non-AQ" Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl. If Temple was able to contain the Houston passing attack (Greg Ward Jr. was 11-of-21 with 88 yards), I would think Derwin James, Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the FSU defense would be able to do the same, so long as the Noles are motivated -- and I think they will be. The Cougars haven't seen anything close to a RB like Dalvin Cook this season and after not getting to New York for the Heisman, along with a month to rest up, Cook could eclipse the 183 yards he ran for versus Florida, the 194 versus Clemson or the 222 vs. Miami. An 11-2 season would be some "down year" for FSU.


ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Houston 21


Coughlin: I feel like I owe it to the Cougars to pick them in this game. Before the season I predicted they would win the American Athletic Conference, but I'm still mad at myself for pulling back on my prediction that I thought they might go undefeated. Houston was my favorite team to go over its win total too. On the other hand, the Cougars are facing the most explosive and dangerous player in the country, in my opinion, in Cook. But there aren't too many coaches in the country that love being the underdog more than Tom Herman. I think the Cougs keep it close.


ATS pick: Houston
Score: Florida State 31, Houston 27


Jan. 1


Outback Bowl


Northwestern Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-9)
Tampa | Raymond James Stadium
Jan. 1, noon on ESPN2
PickCenter consensus: 60 percent pick Tennessee


Fallica: Usually I hate adages like "x plays away from ..." a certain record, but in Tennessee's case it completely rings true. The Vols had CFP teams Alabama and Oklahoma on the ropes and had SEC East winner Florida beaten in Gainesville. The Vols were fourth in ESPN's Game Control metric; they just couldn't finish against the nation's elite. Now the Vols finish with Northwestern, which is 100th nationally in offensive efficiency and 54th in FPI. On paper, everything points to Tennessee. I think the Vols end the season for the second year in a row with a big win over the Big Ten, and win nine games for the first time since 2007.


ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 31, Northwestern 14




Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl


Michigan Wolverines (-4.5) vs. Florida Gators
Orlando | Orlando Citrus Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. on ABC
PickCenter consensus: 74 percent pick Florida


Harris: Florida limped down the stretch of Jim McElwain's fantastic debut season, with poor depth at quarterback and offensive line catching up with the Gators as the season wore on. Michigan also ended on a down note with a blowout loss to Ohio State, but if quarterback Jake Rudock returns healthy, the Wolverines are a much more complete team in Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh than Florida is in Mac's first season. Greg Mattison is an able replacement for departed defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, now the head man at Maryland.


Michigan is further along right now, but the question will be whether a suddenly leaky rush defense that was run over by Jordan Howard and Ezekiel Elliott in November can get on track during bowl practices. If the Wolverines can contain RB Kelvin Taylor, then Florida will have a tough time doing much offensively against a defense that won't allow the Gators anything downfield through the air.


ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 24, Florida 7


Solar: With two of the nation's top defenses facing off, the over/under for the Citrus Bowl opened at 40.5 -- easily the lowest of any bowl game. That's highly beneficial for the Gators, since underdogs have offered tremendous value in low-scoring games.


The Wolverines opened as 4-point favorites, and they have received 71 percent of spread bets. This has caused the line to move from Michigan minus-4 to minus-4.5, but once again there have been no steam moves triggered, which means that public money has caused this half-point move.


Although it may not seem significant, "4" is actually the fifth-most common margin of victory, which makes it an unexpected key number.


Florida fits numerous betting systems including the aforementioned system from last season's betting guide. It's also interesting to note that while Jim Harbaugh gets all the attention, Jim McElwain actually has the superior record against the spread.


In this matchup between marquee programs, we are more than happy to grab the points and take Florida +4.5.


ATS pick: Florida


BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl


Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)


O/U: 53.5




Glendale, Arizona | University of Phoenix Stadium
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. on ESPN


PickCenter consensus: 59 percent pick Ohio State


Steele: These college football blue bloods are meeting for just the sixth time in history. In bowl games, coach Brian Kelly is 4-4; Urban Meyer is 9-2. Notre Dame is two plays away from being undefeated and in the CFB playoff, while Ohio State lost to Michigan State despite never trailing a single second in the game (Spartans hit a field goal with no time remaining). The Irish have had a remarkable season, considering they're had to overcome major injuries on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes failed to play up to their talent level until their final game of the season in their rout over Michigan.


This will probably be the most-watched non-playoff game of the season, as many people like to root against both teams and each has an extremely passionate fan base. The big question is: Will Ohio State be motivated?


If the Buckeyes are, they will win this game; they have the talent edge. Ezekiel Elliott should have a big day against a Notre Dame defense that is allowing 4.5 YPC, J.T. Barrett is now in full command of the offense, and watch for a big day out of Braxton Miller. The safest pick is to go with the over, which appears cheap at 53.5.


Pick: Over 53.5
Score: Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 27


Harris: Notre Dame had a good team on a playoff mission this season, but couldn't overcome a schedule that produced two very narrow losses in tough road environments. Put the Clemson and Stanford games on neutral fields and the Irish might be the undefeated and unanimous No. 1 team in the nation right now, but schedule disparity is not something solvable in a sport with 128 differently resourced teams. The Fighting Irish knew the drill as well as anyone: You have to play the hand you're dealt in a particular year.


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Despite the disappointment of missing the final four, Notre Dame has a championship-like opportunity in facing the defending national champ. The last time the Irish were on a big national stage, the team was embarrassed by Alabama in the 2012 title game. The program hasn't won a major bowl game since 1993, and the potential to validate the progress under Brian Kelly with the first significant postseason victory in more than two decades won't be lost on the players or coaches.


We're not much on fading Urban Meyer, especially late in the season, but the Buckeyes are a more selfish team with far less to be gained in this spot. There is no way we'd lay points here, and the Irish have a good shot to make our final list of plays.


ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 28, Ohio State 24


Fallica: Barring a brief spell against Virginia Tech and in the season finale at Michigan, Ohio State never really found itself this year offensively, and struggled as a whole in an effort to repeat as national champions. So my question is this: if the Buckeyes had trouble getting up during the year when it still controlled its chance at a national title, how will it get up for a game which has zero title implications? Will the numerous NFL draft prospects be more concerned about the combine and such, opposed to being fully invested in a bowl game? There is no doubt Notre Dame will be ready to play.


The Irish were as impressive as anyone in the country this season, overcoming numerous injuries and coming within a couple plays of being in the playoff. If Ohio State had trouble with the Michigan State defense, it will be interesting to see how it handles Jaylon Smith, Sheldon Day, Joe Schmidt and Co. The Buckeyes are going to have to throw to win and they really haven't demonstrated this year that they can. Maybe they will get Braxton Miller more involved on offense? But I expect to see an top-notch effort from the Irish who will hear about being blown out in BCS games and living more off their losses than anyone they have beaten. That changes here.


ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Notre Dame 27, Ohio State 23


Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual


Stanford Cardinal (-7) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Pasadena, California | Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 5 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 53 percent pick Iowa


Steele: Iowa is expecting to have 60,000 fans in attendance, as this is its first Rose Bowl in 25 years. The Hawkeyes were nearly in the CFP, but allowed a 22-play drive that ended with a touchdown with 27 seconds left in their Big Ten championship game loss to Michigan State. Stanford's two losses came at Northwestern (a 9 a.m. ET start on the West Coast) and versus Oregon.


Stanford has the Heisman Trophy runner-up in RB Christian McCaffrey, along with a veteran quarterback in Kevin Hogan and the edges on offense and special teams. I'll give Iowa the edge on defense here, with Thorpe Award winner Desmond King. I believe Stanford is the stronger team overall, but Iowa at 12-1 will be playing the "no respect" card as a TD underdog. The Hawkeyes should be able to run on a Cardinal defense that is allowing 4.6 YPC. I'll call for a potential upset here and take the Hawkeyes.


ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Stanford 27, Iowa 26


Allstate Sugar Bowl


Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Ole Miss Rebels
New Orleans | Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 64 percent pick Oklahoma State


Steele: Oklahoma State was 10-0 at one point, and many folks mentioned the Cowboys as being one of the top four teams in the country. The Rebels lost three games, including a 13-point loss to Memphis and a 28-point loss to Florida, but were still just a fourth-and-25 lateral play away from being in the SEC championship game.


The Rebels beat Alabama this season and are plus-36 yards per game against bowl teams, while Oklahoma State is minus-54 yards per game. The Pokes' defense allowed 588 yards per game in its last five, while Ole Miss' offense is averaging 129 yards per game above what its opponents allow on average on the season. Oklahoma State has just one win over a ranked team (TCU) but was outgained by 207 yards, while Ole Miss not only beat Alabama, but also LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The return of left tackle Laremy Tunsil late in the year gave the Rebels' O-line a nice boost. I like Ole Miss to take this one outright.


ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 40, Oklahoma State 28


Jan. 2


TaxSlayer Bowl


Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)
Jacksonville, Florida | EverBank Field
Jan. 2, noon on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 52 percent pick Penn State


Fallica: So Georgia has lost its coach, its offensive coordinator and its defensive coordinator? Other than that, all is well in Athens. Kidding aside, even before the last couple of weeks, Georgia was struggling mightily on offense and nearly lost at home to Georgia Southern. Sure, the defense should shut down Penn State, but how many points are the Bulldogs going to score? And you know that after getting blasted in East Lansing, James Franklin will be selling his team hard on ending the season with a bowl win over an SEC team in SEC Country.


Again, as in so many cases in bowl games, I'll go with the motivated team -- especially in an underdog role. Last year, four of the seven SEC teams favored by more than a field goal in their bowl game lost. Don't be afraid of going against the SEC this time of year.


ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 20, Georgia 17


AutoZone Liberty Bowl


Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-11)
Memphis | Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Jan. 2, 3:20 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick Arkansas


Steele: If this game was all about talent, then Arkansas would win it going away. The Razorbacks have the talent edge across the board, with the exception of maybe the defensive line (Kansas State defensive linemen accounted for 25 of the team's 36 sacks). The most important factor, however, could be coaching, and there isn't a better underdog coach in the nation than Bill Snyder. The Wildcats had their backs against the wall, needing to win their final three games just to become bowl eligible, and they did just that. Arkansas has the edge on offense and defense, while Kansas State has a large special teams edge.


Snyder is 23-8 ATS as a 'dog, and for three weeks the Kansas State players will be hearing that they have no chance to win this game. I'll side with the underdog and will call for Kansas State to keep this one closer than the folks in the desert expect.


ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Arkansas 31, Kansas State 28


Valero Alamo Bowl


Oregon Ducks vs. TCU Horned Frogs (PK)
San Antonio, Texas | Alamodome
Jan. 2, 6:45 p.m. on ESPN
PickCenter consensus: 66 percent pick TCU


Steele: This game will be played in a dome, so the weather will be perfect, unlike the last time, when TCU took the field against Baylor in a downpour. Oregon's offense has been tremendous since Vernon Adams Jr. returned to full health. In the Ducks' past five games, they averaged 48.6 points and beat Stanford, USC and Arizona State in that span. TCU will be without its best wide receiver in Josh Doctson (left wrist), so Trevone Boykin will have to find a new favorite target.


One of TCU's losses was to Oklahoma on the road by one-point on a failed two-point conversion (missing Doctson and Boykin), while the other was on the road at Oklahoma State, a game in which the Frogs had a 207-yard edge.


Both teams are fairly even on offense and special teams, and despite TCU having a banged-up defense, the Horned Frogs still held their opponents to 32 yards per game below their season average. Oregon allowed 50 yards per game more than its opponents averaged this season. I'll side with the better defense and call for TCU to win.


ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 43, Oregon 36


Harris: Oregon played inspired ball after a miraculous overtime win at Arizona State, and turned a 3-3 start into a 9-3 campaign. But after beating USC in Week 12, the Ducks had made their point, and there's not that much to play for after that. The cracks showed in a 10-point win over heavily outmanned Oregon State, and now offensive coordinator Scott Frost has bolted for Central Florida.


At first blush this looks like two unstoppable offenses versus struggling defenses, but the Frogs' defense is the one that improved in November as it tried to prop up a wounded offense. The Ducks have an All-American in pass-rusher DeForest Buckner, but this unit is flat-lining under Don Pellum. TCU also enjoys a special teams advantage, as well as the 2015 bowl season's biggest coaching mismatch. TCU backers should expect to lay a field goal or more at kickoff.


ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 59, Oregon 34

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting.

 

[Frank Costanza]

If one of you has the ESPN inside access would appreciate your cutting and pasting the below. I like getting Fallica's insights.

Thanks in advance.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/insider/st...ive-betting-advice-alabama-clemson-title-game

 

[NYGiants25]

Vegas experts' guide to betting Alabama-Clemson
Danny Kanell explains why he believes Clemson will beat Alabama in the national championship game and discusses what would be the difference if Alabama beats Clemson. (1:20)

After 40 bowl games, the College Football Playoff National Championship is finally upon us, with the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide squaring off in Arizona on Monday night. Can Nick Saban claim his fifth ring or will Dabo Swinney take home his first title?

Our CFB Vegas experts here at Chalk, including Chris Fallica, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Phil Steele and Will Harris, have gathered for the final time this season to give you their best bets for the game.


No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers Total: 51
8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent pick Alabama

Steele: My computer had Oklahoma defeating Clemson in the semifinals. After watching Clemson's dominating second half and the way the Tigers played in the underdog role, I thought there was no way I was going to go against them here. Clemson has a mobile quarterback in Deshaun Watson, something that has given Alabama problems in the past: Chad Kelly and Ole Miss had 433 yards, Dak Prescott and Mississippi State had 393 yards and Joshua Dobbs and Tennessee put up 21 first downs in games against the Tide this season. And Clemson's offense is better than all of those.

Clemson's defense has held foes to 105 yards below their season averages, and its offense has gained 156 more yards per game than its opponents normally allow. That is a combined plus-261 yards, which leads the nation, while Alabama is No. 2 in that category at plus-222. Clemson is No. 1 in the country and still almost a touchdown 'dog. I could make a great case for Clemson, but I'm still taking Alabama in this one.

I feel the Crimson Tide are the most talented team in the country, and their defense and defensive depth are amazing. They have three potential first-round draft picks on the defensive line in Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed, and have the best rush defense in the country, allowing just 71 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry. Saban's defenses averaged just 29.5 sacks per season over the six previous years, but this season the unit has produced an FBS-leading 50. Clemson's young offensive line has performed better than expected, but has yet to face a front seven like the one it will face here. Alabama has more speed at linebacker than it has had recently, which will help them contain Watson.

On offense it will be a much different game plan than last week's. Michigan State shut down the rushing offenses from all the top teams it faced, but its weakness was the secondary. Clemson has a much better secondary, and while its front seven has top-notch personnel, it's still thin. I look for the Tide to run Derrick Henry early and often. He may not have great success in the first quarter, but that offensive line will help him wear down the Clemson defense as the game goes on.

Alabama has a different look this year after it lost in last season's playoff; the Crimson Tide are not about to let that happen again. They get the advantage of some extra practice time with Clemson limited to just 20 hours as school is back in session for the Tigers. Alabama also has the edge on special teams, which is often overlooked. The Crimson Tide are used to this type of setting and that experience and depth will give Saban his fifth national title.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 30, Clemson 20


Fallica: I think this number is a little on the high side, as there has been a reaction to how dominant the Tide were in their win over Michigan State. But as many mentioned leading up to that semifinal, Michigan State was the absolute perfect opponent for Alabama. The Spartans simply didn't have the pieces to exploit Alabama and were no match in "strength vs. strength" matchups. And once CB Darian Hicks was hobbled with an ankle injury, it allowed Calvin Ridley to run free and make Jake Coker's job easy. That job isn't going to be as easy against a much better defense Monday night. And remember, Clemson has four wins over teams currently ranked in the top 10 (Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Oklahoma), while Alabama has just the one win over Michigan State, so there should be zero doubt about Clemson's pedigree here.

Cordrea Tankersley and Mackensie Alexander can certainly limit big plays in the Alabama passing game, as the Tigers have already held Baker Mayfield to a 23 QBR and DeShone Kizer to a 29 QBR. Even without Shaq Lawson, the Tigers shut down the Oklahoma running game and were in the backfield all game. I thought the break between the end of the regular season and the Orange Bowl would do wonders for the Tigers, and it did. I expect Brent Venables to play a lot of zone here and force Coker to read a lot more coverages than he had to against Michigan State.

Deshaun Watson's legs will be key to Clemson's title chances. Bill Frakes for ESPN
If the Tigers can't stop the Alabama running game, it could be all for naught. However, if Clemson has success up front -- and I think it can -- maybe the Tigers can force some mistakes on third-and-long situations. Alabama is just 6-of-30 on third-and-5 or longer in the past three games, and it has converted just 24.6 percent of those situations this year.

Watson has been doing a lot of damage with his legs lately as well. He has carried the ball at least 21 times and gained at least 114 yards each of the past three games, with a season-high 145 yards in the win over Oklahoma. Watson can also throw the ball, though, and that's what makes him so dangerous. He has a Power 5-best 16 TD passes on throws of 20-plus yards, so while the Alabama secondary has been dominant, Watson possesses the most unique threat the Tide have faced at the QB position this year. Ole Miss' Kelly threw for 341 yards and had seven 20-yard completions in an upset win over the Tide earlier this year, but he ran the ball only eight times.

I think there are two ways to play this game: Either lay the points or play Clemson on the money line. Going back to the first BCS National Championship Game, there have been 21 games that have decided the national championship (including the CFP semifinals and final). The only time the underdog covered but didn't win outright was in 2013, when Auburn lost by three as a double-digit underdog in the final seconds to Florida State. Ten other times the 'dog won outright and 10 other times the favorite covered, with those 10 favorites covering by better than 18 PPG. So history shows that either the favorite wins easily, as Alabama has in four previous instances (winning by 38, 28, 21 and 16 as a 10-, 9.5-, 2.5- and 3.5-point favorite), or loses outright, as Alabama did last year to Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite.

Given Clemson's recent success as an underdog -- the Tigers have won four straight bowl games, each coming as a 'dog -- an emotional edge which they have been playing with all year, a defense which should pose a good challenge for the Alabama offense and Watson, who will be the best QB Alabama has played all year, I'll go with Clemson to win the game and capture its second national title in school history.

ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 24, Alabama 21


Coughlin: I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated the Alabama staff going into the playoff game against Michigan State. I didn't think the Crimson Tide would get out of their offensive mindset, which I believe is centered on getting Henry about 30 carries. Saban allowed Lane Kiffin to call his kind of game, which featured a lot of quick screens and ultimately the deep ball over the secondary of Sparty, which produced two big-time touchdowns by Ridley. I'll also admit that I didn't think Coker was capable of completing 25-of-30 passes.

On the other side of the ball, I was shocked Clemson didn't lose anything defensively against Oklahoma when Lawson went out. Looking at this matchup, the player who has the most weight on his shoulders is Watson. Will he be able to create plays and get first downs with his feet when pass plays break down or he gets flushed from the pocket by the best front seven he will face this year? Or will he try to take a chance and make plays the way he did at the end of the first half versus Oklahoma, which ended in what looked like a costly interception at the time.

Clemson matches up pretty well in all facets against Alabama; I just don't think the Tigers will play as well as they did in their last game, and that has a lot to do with their opponent. I'll lay the points here.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Clemson 19


Harris: A couple of months ago we called Clemson an outfit that could get to the final, but not win it all, and we still see Alabama's big-game experience as a significant edge versus a Tigers squad that's putting a lot of youth on the field. Against Oklahoma, Clemson showed off the power makeover that has gotten the program to this point, with Watson and tailback Wayne Gallman rushing for just short of 300 yards, much of it on downhill interior runs.

Running between the tackles is not going to fly against an Alabama defense that's as stout versus the run as any in the past decade and features a defensive line that might be the sport's best group at that position in history. Watson is an accurate deep thrower and will make some plays downfield, but Alabama's defenders are elite tacklers, and we're skeptical that the Tigers can move the chains with enough regularity to threaten a team total that's currently north of three touchdowns. We're certainly not bullish on Gallman's chances to crack the over on his 60-yard rushing prop bet.

Back in September, Alabama needed to find a quarterback so it could form an offensive identity, stop killing itself on special teams and continue to improve in the secondary. Now, all those boxes are checked. Coker has gone from an error-prone rookie gamer to a savvy, veteran, heart-and-soul-of-the-offense leader who alternates turns as playmaker and ace game manager. Freshman Minkah Fitzpatrick has filled a void in the defensive backfield while secondary mainstays Cyrus Jones and Eddie Jackson have upped their games. And speaking of Jones, also a return man extraordinaire, the special teams' transformation from liability to weapon is even more remarkable than Coker's rapid evolution.

It's hard to find edges favoring Clemson in this matchup. Most of what the Tigers do well, like running the ball, stopping the run and getting after the opposing passer, Alabama does even better. And much of what the Tigers struggle with, like turnovers and field position, are strengths for the Crimson Tide. The differences in the special teams and field position really stand out as potentially difficult to overcome, especially for an underdog that's already a little smaller and less experienced.

Thursday night's beatdown of one of the best teams in Michigan State history was a gaudy display of power that should have shown the buy sign to the last remaining doubters. Take Alabama in this one.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Clemson 14

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks as always for these, NYG.