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DAMN ALREADY WEEK 10 ... TOO DAMN FAST ... :shake:
E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 10 (WOW)
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NY Giants fan, anyone?
My 10 best Week 10 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 72-18 (80 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 48-40-2 against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning. Rankings from latest College Football Playoff standings.
Duke Blue Devils (+8.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels Noon ET, ESPN2
North Carolina is much more efficient on offense this year. In 2014, the Tar Heels were No. 18 in plays run with 77.3 per game and No. 66 in yards per play (5.6). This year, they are only at No. 123 in plays run (62.9) but third in yards per play, improving to 7.5. Duke made a miracle comeback last week trailing by 12 with 3 minutes, 30 seconds to go, but had it undone by the miracle lateral kickoff return. Last year, Duke was upset at home by North Carolina and that loss kept them out of the ACC title game so the Blue Devils are playing with legitimate revenge. This is a rivalry game, and each of the last three meetings has been an outright upset. Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112. The clincher for me is that Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games when installed as a 'dog, but is 8-1 straight up in those.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: North Carolina 28, Duke 27
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) at Pittsburgh Panthers Noon ET, ABC
Last week, Notre Dame got to the Temple 14-yard line or inside three times and ended those drives with two turnovers and a short field goal. One of the drives was 14 plays, and another was 15. That inability to finish drives gives us some line value here. The defenses are close, but the Irish have a large edge on offense, averaging 496 yards per game and gaining 129 yards more than their opponents allow. Pitt averages 365 yards per game and gains 13 yards less per game than their opponents normally allow. I think the Irish cover this one.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Pitt 20
No. 2 LSU Tigers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5) 8 PM ET, CBS
All summer long on my radio show circuit, I said that LSU was my No. 2 surprise team (non-top 10 team that could win it all) in the country. Despite all the talk being about Alabama and Auburn, I said this game would resemble those game of the century matchups from 2011 and 2012 when both were in the top five when they met. This week, it's finally arrived. Both teams have great RBs, with Leonard Fournette having a slight edge on Derrick Henry. Both have top-notch defenses, but Bama is holding opponents to 172 yards below their season average and LSU at 102 yards below. Those other two top-five matchups were decided by just three and four points. I could make a great case for LSU, but my computer says Alabama by 10, and I agree. I will give a lean to the home team.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, LSU 20
Auburn Tigers (+7.5) at No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies Noon ET, SEC
Last week, I used South Carolina in this spot, and the Gamecocks easily covered in College Station. Auburn was the SEC media's pick to win the conference but enters this game just 4-4, trying to make a bowl. Gus Malzahn's offense has been improving weekly as it averaged just 344 yards per game the first five games but 428 the last three. Texas A&M is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC games and 67 percent completions. Auburn got back defensive end Carl Lawson last week and is playing with legitimate revenge. Last year, A&M came into Auburn a 23-point underdog and won outright. The visitor has won outright in all three SEC meetings.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Texas A&M 37, Auburn 34
No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5) vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3:30 PM ET, FOX
TCU has struggled on the road this season, winning by six over Minnesota, three over Texas Tech and seven at Kansas State. Oklahoma State is stronger than all three of those teams and is 42-9 straight-up at home over the last eight seasons. The Cowboys won for me on the road last week at Texas Tech, but this is their toughest test of the year so far. I listed four legitimate contenders in the Big 12 this year in my magazine: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They are the clear top four, but Oklahoma State has not been as strong as I expected and have had their share of close calls. These two have faced four mutual opponents and TCU is plus-188 yards per game in those with the Cowboys just plus-45 yards per game. The clincher is TCU's defense was very banged up at the start of the year and had to play a bunch of inexperienced players. Patterson says they are improving weekly and last week held West Virginia, which came in averaging 486 yards per game, to just 327 yards.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 42, Oklahoma State 35
Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) at No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats Noon ET, ESPNU
These teams mirror each other. Both are 6-2, have great defenses and are just average on offense. Northwestern running back Justin Jackson has rushed for 731 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and Penn State's top running back (Saquon Barkley) has rushed for 716, but 6.6 YPC. Penn State has defensive end Carl Nassib and potential high-draft pick Austin Johnson at defensive tackle. The Nittany Lions also have a large edge at quarterback with potential first-round pick Christian Hackenberg having a 12-0 TD-INT ratio his last six games versus redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson. While the Wildcats are off a bye, they have lost their last eight in that situation. Northwestern also is off a misleading final, where at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit versus Nebraska but somehow led the game 14-6 and went on to win. Penn State is plus-76 yards per game in Big Ten play and Northwestern is minus-102.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Northwestern 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-23) 8 PM ET, ESPN
Last week, I had Minnesota plus the points over Michigan in this column. It was an emotional week for the Gophers, as Jerry Kill stepped down and they gave it everything they had. They had a 461-296 yard edge but got stopped at the goal line at the end in a 3-point loss. Last year, fans were streaming out of TCF Bank Stadium with Ohio State up 31-14 in the fourth quarter, but two fumbles had the game in doubt at the end with the Buckeyes clinging to a 7-point win. This year, Ohio State is off a bye and has just played its best six quarters of the year, crushing Penn State and Rutgers. I would much rather have J.T. Barrett at quarterback, but Cardale Jones has been the starter in all but one game, and the Buckeyes only have Illinois on deck. Minnesota already lost to Northwestern by 27 and Nebraska by 23. Ohio State is clearly superior to those two teams.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 7
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-25.5) 7 PM ET, ESPNU
My computer says the Sooners are the third-best team in the country, with both their offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and they have rushed for 301 yards per game and thrown for 331 YPG the last two. Their defense is holding opponents to 111 yards below their season average. Iowa State is off its big shutout win over Texas at home and now must travel. Oklahoma went into Ames last year and won 59-14, but now get the Cyclones at home. Iowa State has had two Big 12 road games and trailed Texas Tech 66-24 in the fourth quarter and Baylor 35-0 at the half in a downpour. The forecast here is sunny and 62 degrees. Even with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State on deck, the Sooners will keep it rolling here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 10
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Florida Gators (-20.5) Noon ET, ESPN
Jim McElwain is on my short list for coach of the year. Florida has a dominating defense that holds opponents to 127 yards below their season average. Vanderbilt was just shut out by Houston, 34-0, and averages only 11.2 points per game versus FBS foes. This is a sandwich game for Florida off their big tilt against Georgia and with South Carolina on deck. Vanderbilt also has a defense allowing just 324 yards per game. Bottom line is my computer is calling for a shutout, and Florida lost to Vanderbilt two years ago here in the Swamp, so the Gators will be ready.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3
No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (+12.5) at No. 1 Clemson Tigers 3:30 PM ET, ABC
I have been very impressed with Clemson on both sides of the ball, and I am not surprised the Tigers are No. 1 with the playoff committee. I also like what I have seen from Florida State this year with only a fluke loss to Georgia Tech marring its record. The Seminoles have only been an underdog twice in this series in over 35 years and both times they pulled the outright upset, but Florida State has never been a double-digit 'dog under Jimbo Fisher. My computer agrees with Las Vegas and has Clemson winning by 15. This game should go down to the wire, and while I will call for Clemson to escape with the straight-up win, I will also take the generous points with a very dangerous 'dog.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 27
Phil Steele
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 72-18 (80 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 48-40-2 against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning. Rankings from latest College Football Playoff standings.
Duke Blue Devils (+8.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels Noon ET, ESPN2
North Carolina is much more efficient on offense this year. In 2014, the Tar Heels were No. 18 in plays run with 77.3 per game and No. 66 in yards per play (5.6). This year, they are only at No. 123 in plays run (62.9) but third in yards per play, improving to 7.5. Duke made a miracle comeback last week trailing by 12 with 3 minutes, 30 seconds to go, but had it undone by the miracle lateral kickoff return. Last year, Duke was upset at home by North Carolina and that loss kept them out of the ACC title game so the Blue Devils are playing with legitimate revenge. This is a rivalry game, and each of the last three meetings has been an outright upset. Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112. The clincher for me is that Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games when installed as a 'dog, but is 8-1 straight up in those.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: North Carolina 28, Duke 27
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) at Pittsburgh Panthers Noon ET, ABC
Last week, Notre Dame got to the Temple 14-yard line or inside three times and ended those drives with two turnovers and a short field goal. One of the drives was 14 plays, and another was 15. That inability to finish drives gives us some line value here. The defenses are close, but the Irish have a large edge on offense, averaging 496 yards per game and gaining 129 yards more than their opponents allow. Pitt averages 365 yards per game and gains 13 yards less per game than their opponents normally allow. I think the Irish cover this one.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Pitt 20
No. 2 LSU Tigers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5) 8 PM ET, CBS
All summer long on my radio show circuit, I said that LSU was my No. 2 surprise team (non-top 10 team that could win it all) in the country. Despite all the talk being about Alabama and Auburn, I said this game would resemble those game of the century matchups from 2011 and 2012 when both were in the top five when they met. This week, it's finally arrived. Both teams have great RBs, with Leonard Fournette having a slight edge on Derrick Henry. Both have top-notch defenses, but Bama is holding opponents to 172 yards below their season average and LSU at 102 yards below. Those other two top-five matchups were decided by just three and four points. I could make a great case for LSU, but my computer says Alabama by 10, and I agree. I will give a lean to the home team.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, LSU 20
Auburn Tigers (+7.5) at No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies Noon ET, SEC
Last week, I used South Carolina in this spot, and the Gamecocks easily covered in College Station. Auburn was the SEC media's pick to win the conference but enters this game just 4-4, trying to make a bowl. Gus Malzahn's offense has been improving weekly as it averaged just 344 yards per game the first five games but 428 the last three. Texas A&M is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC games and 67 percent completions. Auburn got back defensive end Carl Lawson last week and is playing with legitimate revenge. Last year, A&M came into Auburn a 23-point underdog and won outright. The visitor has won outright in all three SEC meetings.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Texas A&M 37, Auburn 34
No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5) vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3:30 PM ET, FOX
TCU has struggled on the road this season, winning by six over Minnesota, three over Texas Tech and seven at Kansas State. Oklahoma State is stronger than all three of those teams and is 42-9 straight-up at home over the last eight seasons. The Cowboys won for me on the road last week at Texas Tech, but this is their toughest test of the year so far. I listed four legitimate contenders in the Big 12 this year in my magazine: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They are the clear top four, but Oklahoma State has not been as strong as I expected and have had their share of close calls. These two have faced four mutual opponents and TCU is plus-188 yards per game in those with the Cowboys just plus-45 yards per game. The clincher is TCU's defense was very banged up at the start of the year and had to play a bunch of inexperienced players. Patterson says they are improving weekly and last week held West Virginia, which came in averaging 486 yards per game, to just 327 yards.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 42, Oklahoma State 35
Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) at No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats Noon ET, ESPNU
These teams mirror each other. Both are 6-2, have great defenses and are just average on offense. Northwestern running back Justin Jackson has rushed for 731 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and Penn State's top running back (Saquon Barkley) has rushed for 716, but 6.6 YPC. Penn State has defensive end Carl Nassib and potential high-draft pick Austin Johnson at defensive tackle. The Nittany Lions also have a large edge at quarterback with potential first-round pick Christian Hackenberg having a 12-0 TD-INT ratio his last six games versus redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson. While the Wildcats are off a bye, they have lost their last eight in that situation. Northwestern also is off a misleading final, where at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit versus Nebraska but somehow led the game 14-6 and went on to win. Penn State is plus-76 yards per game in Big Ten play and Northwestern is minus-102.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Northwestern 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-23) 8 PM ET, ESPN
Last week, I had Minnesota plus the points over Michigan in this column. It was an emotional week for the Gophers, as Jerry Kill stepped down and they gave it everything they had. They had a 461-296 yard edge but got stopped at the goal line at the end in a 3-point loss. Last year, fans were streaming out of TCF Bank Stadium with Ohio State up 31-14 in the fourth quarter, but two fumbles had the game in doubt at the end with the Buckeyes clinging to a 7-point win. This year, Ohio State is off a bye and has just played its best six quarters of the year, crushing Penn State and Rutgers. I would much rather have J.T. Barrett at quarterback, but Cardale Jones has been the starter in all but one game, and the Buckeyes only have Illinois on deck. Minnesota already lost to Northwestern by 27 and Nebraska by 23. Ohio State is clearly superior to those two teams.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 7
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-25.5) 7 PM ET, ESPNU
My computer says the Sooners are the third-best team in the country, with both their offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and they have rushed for 301 yards per game and thrown for 331 YPG the last two. Their defense is holding opponents to 111 yards below their season average. Iowa State is off its big shutout win over Texas at home and now must travel. Oklahoma went into Ames last year and won 59-14, but now get the Cyclones at home. Iowa State has had two Big 12 road games and trailed Texas Tech 66-24 in the fourth quarter and Baylor 35-0 at the half in a downpour. The forecast here is sunny and 62 degrees. Even with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State on deck, the Sooners will keep it rolling here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 10
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Florida Gators (-20.5) Noon ET, ESPN
Jim McElwain is on my short list for coach of the year. Florida has a dominating defense that holds opponents to 127 yards below their season average. Vanderbilt was just shut out by Houston, 34-0, and averages only 11.2 points per game versus FBS foes. This is a sandwich game for Florida off their big tilt against Georgia and with South Carolina on deck. Vanderbilt also has a defense allowing just 324 yards per game. Bottom line is my computer is calling for a shutout, and Florida lost to Vanderbilt two years ago here in the Swamp, so the Gators will be ready.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3
No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (+12.5) at No. 1 Clemson Tigers 3:30 PM ET, ABC
I have been very impressed with Clemson on both sides of the ball, and I am not surprised the Tigers are No. 1 with the playoff committee. I also like what I have seen from Florida State this year with only a fluke loss to Georgia Tech marring its record. The Seminoles have only been an underdog twice in this series in over 35 years and both times they pulled the outright upset, but Florida State has never been a double-digit 'dog under Jimbo Fisher. My computer agrees with Las Vegas and has Clemson winning by 15. This game should go down to the wire, and while I will call for Clemson to escape with the straight-up win, I will also take the generous points with a very dangerous 'dog.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 27
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Best Week 10 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin
After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.
2015 season record:
Fallica: 35-22-3 ATS (last week: 2-3)
Coughlin: 25-18-2 ATS (last week: 4-1)
2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)
Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) vs LSU Tigers
Fallica: The Alabama defense has been the most dominant unit I've seen this year and it is well equipped to offset Leonard Fournette. I love how Minkah Fitzpatrick and Eddie Jackson have been making plays all year in the secondary. In its last five games against Alabama, LSU has scored 13, 17, 17, zero and nine points. Do I think Alabama can generate 24 points vs. LSU? Yes, I do. With all the talk of these defenses, big plays in the passing game have proved crucial in this rivalry lately. Dating back to 2011 national championship game, LSU has been an underdog away from home five times and the Tigers haven't won or covered any of them. Four of the losses have come by at least 17 points, including a pair of 21-point losses to the Tide (one in Tuscaloosa, one in the previously mentioned title game). Can LSU win the game? Sure it can. Are the Tigers an attractive underdog? Sure they are. And I can't fault anyone who likes them here, but I'll side with the Tide.
ATS pick: Alabama 28, LSU 17
Coughlin: For the first time since 2009, I will not be on the sidelines for what is one of my favorite games of the year, every year. This year the teams square off in Tuscaloosa, which makes me miss it a little less, but that's just because Baton Rouge is my favorite campus in the country. Let's get to the game. It's pretty simple for me -- what do you expect from Brandon Harris, the LSU quarterback? I don't expect much, simply because I just don't see it. He's ninth in the conference in completion percentage and 11th in passing passing yards. Yes, I know, he's so low because of the success of the ground game. But as you know from my previous feelings, this Alabama front seven is unreal and I don't see the LSU offense doing much on a Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Hey, be happy LSU fans. I'm picking against your Tigers ... again.
ATS pick: Alabama 24, LSU 13
Florida State Seminoles (+12) at Clemson Tigers
Fallica: I've thrown the question out there this week to a bunch of people: Is this the biggest game for Clemson since it won the national title? The Tigers can dispatch the kings of the ACC and would be a near lock to reach the College Football Playoff. A loss would have people saying they couldn't even beat FSU on their home field as a double-digit favorite, especially with the 'Noles as vulnerable as they've been in a while. Clemson should have won the game last year in Tallahassee, but a series of head-shaking mistakes did them in. On paper, this is no contest. Clemson is in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. FSU has just one win over a team with a winning record, injury concerns and, apparently, a decision to make at QB. I think Clemson will win, but I don't think it will be as easy as many people think, given all the stakes of this game and Clemson's new found position as CFP No. 1.
ATS pick: Clemson 30, Florida State 24
Coughlin: What should we expect from Florida State at the quarterback position? Everett Golson or Sean McGuire? Only Jimbo knows, and that's the way Jimbo likes it. Speaking of Jimbo Fisher, this is the first time since he has been the FSU head coach that he has been a double-digit underdog and that makes me fascinated in the style in which Jimbo chooses to call his offensive plays. On the other hand, I kind of challenged Deshaun Watson before he and the Tigers went to Miami and put it on the 'Canes, and he is now playing the best he's played all year. Let's go Dabo!
ATS pick: Clemson 38, FSU 24
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Fallica: Well, this is what we've been waiting for in the Big 12. It's time to find out how the backloaded schedule in November will shake itself out. The Cowboys rallied from 17 down last week to avoid the upset trap and have all their goals still in front of them. TCU has been putting up points on everyone, but has faced just one team with a winning record and three of its four road games were decided by a touchdown or less, including a comeback win at Kansas State. This will be the Horned Frogs' toughest test to date -- a top-25 defense on the road. I love what J.W. Walsh brought to the Cowboys offense last week. There could be something special going on in Stillwater this year and I would be surprised if TCU escaped the final four games unbeaten, with the two trips to the state of Oklahoma and a home game vs Baylor. The last time a top-10 team visited Stillwater, it left with a loss. I think it will happen again here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State 49, TCU 45
Coughlin: Let me just start out by saying that I am worried about the path in which the Big 12 is headed as a conference as we get deeper in the season. That's because there is no title game and the conference schedule is so backloaded. I will also add that the only way a Big 12 team gets in the playoff is if it goes undefeated. It's really hard for me to go against Oklahoma State in this spot, because I know OSU head coach Mike Gundy will have his team ready and he will not be afraid to take shots in this game. But seriously, can't you just say whoever kicks the most field goals in this game will lose? I do think TCU is one of the most improved teams from the start of the season, and I simply trust them in this spot.
ATS pick: TCU 48, Oklahoma State 35
San Jose State Spartans (+12.5) vs. BYU Cougars
Fallica: The Spartan defense has played pretty well this year, holding opponents to 5.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 2 in FBS) and held Auburn to 342 yards in Jordan-Hare. Running back Tyler Ervin is coming off a huge game vs. New Mexico and if that confidence carries into this week -- and his running allows them to eat some clock -- that, along with a better than you would think pass defense, might cause the Spartans to stick around in this one.
ATS pick: BYU 27, San Jose State 20
Vanderbilt Commodores (+21) at Florida Gators
Fallica: This has all the looks of a letdown game for the Gators, who are coming off a throttling of Georgia last week. Vanderbilt's defense couldn't hold up against the Houston spread last week, but the Commodores are still No. 17 nationally in defensive efficiency and have been in every SEC game they have played this year. Now, the offense is horrific and I can't see them scoring more than 14, but that might be enough. The Gators win and clinch the SEC East -- and maybe national coach of the year honors for Jim McElwain -- but the Vandy defense keeps things relatively interesting for a little while at least.
ATS pick: Florida 28, Vanderbilt 10
Idaho Vandals (+9.5) at South Alabama Jaguars
Fallica: Sun Belt rivals Idaho and South Alabama -- OK, I'll stop right there.
Kidding aside, the Vandals have turned it around since a 1-4 start and, if they hadn't coughed up a 23-point lead last week, would bring a three-game winning streak into this one. USA has really struggled to get solid QB play this year and with Matt Linehan coming off a couple of good outings, the Vandals offense again might put up some points. FPI has found some value here as well, saying South Alabama is roughly a five-point favorite. I'll take the better offense, the hotter team and the points.
ATS pick: Idaho 24, South Alabama 20
Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Fallica: Indiana has lost four straight since a 4-0 start and the Hoosiers are now scrambling for bowl eligibility. The Hoosiers have nearly pulled upsets over Ohio State and Michigan State, so they can definitely put a scare into the Hawkeyes as well, given that the Buckeyes and Spartans have better offenses (Iowa had just 293 yards vs. Maryland last week). The Hoosiers have a knack of allowing big plays (10 20-yard plays in losses to MSU and OSU) and have had lapses in the kicking game. IU will score, but the Iowa defense will grind out another win.
ATS pick: Iowa 30, Indiana 27
Washington Huskies (-1) vs. Utah Utes
Fallica: A common narrative I've seen this week is, "Utah is an underdog at Washington?" We've already had the somebody knows something chat a few weeks back, so in addition to that, I will say the Washington defense will make it very hard for Utah to run the ball. Travis Feeney and that group already shut down much better offenses in USC and Arizona. The Huskies are No. 5 in the country in defensive efficiency and while the offense has struggled, I suspect it will do enough at home to push their mark to 5-4 this season.
ATS pick: Washington 24, Utah 16
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Fallica: Marshall is outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency in part to numerous injuries suffered this season. That should help a MTSU defense that has been beaten up by Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech the last few weeks. Middle Tennessee has been a pretty good home team this year, scoring 70, 73 and 42 in its three home games against non-SEC teams. Coming off an embarrassing road loss last week at Louisiana Tech, the Blue Raiders need a win this week to avoid having to win out in order to reach a bowl game. I'd be very surprised if they didn't come to play this week.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee 37, Marshall 24
Maryland Terrapins (+13) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Fallica: The Terps have shown a good bit of life the last two weeks under Mike Locksley. Problem is, they just can't stop turning the ball over. They have nine in the last two games and 28 on the season. But the defense has held up in the last two games despite those turnovers. Maryland outgained Penn State by 103 yards and held Iowa to 293 yards. Wisconsin's defense has held four of five Big Ten teams to 13 points or fewer. The return of Corey Clement was a boost to the Badgers offense last week and he'll have to make some plays this week as well to survive an upset trap.
ATS pick: Wisconsin 24, Maryland 17
Arkansas Razorbacks (+11) at Ole Miss Rebels
Coughlin: When we get this late in the season, call me crazy but I will more often than not always take double-digit points in a conference game, let alone it being a division game. The Ole Miss offense comes in averaging more than 39 points, so we will have to hope the Hogs' defense can slow them down a little, but I honestly think the Razorbacks will do an effective job in keeping Chad Kelly off the field with their own running game, which features Alex Collins, who is 40 yards away from 1,000 this year. Coach Bret Bielema keeps it close
ATS pick: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 20
Cincinnati Bearcats (+9) at Houston Cougars
Coughlin: Houston has easily been one of my favorite teams of the year, and I was on them early, even in the preseason -- but I did shy away from calling them to go undefeated. The reason is because I worry about how ready the Cougars are in their first season under Tom Herman. He made it a point to make training camp the toughest thing his team has ever had to overcome, but I just think Cincinnati is more battle tested in terms of competition on the field. These two teams are ranked No. 2 and 3 in the conference in points per game, so expect a Big 12-type pingpong match. I'll take coach Tommy Tuberville and the points
ATS pick: Houston 48, Cincinnati 42
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin
After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.
2015 season record:
Fallica: 35-22-3 ATS (last week: 2-3)
Coughlin: 25-18-2 ATS (last week: 4-1)
2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)
Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) vs LSU Tigers
Fallica: The Alabama defense has been the most dominant unit I've seen this year and it is well equipped to offset Leonard Fournette. I love how Minkah Fitzpatrick and Eddie Jackson have been making plays all year in the secondary. In its last five games against Alabama, LSU has scored 13, 17, 17, zero and nine points. Do I think Alabama can generate 24 points vs. LSU? Yes, I do. With all the talk of these defenses, big plays in the passing game have proved crucial in this rivalry lately. Dating back to 2011 national championship game, LSU has been an underdog away from home five times and the Tigers haven't won or covered any of them. Four of the losses have come by at least 17 points, including a pair of 21-point losses to the Tide (one in Tuscaloosa, one in the previously mentioned title game). Can LSU win the game? Sure it can. Are the Tigers an attractive underdog? Sure they are. And I can't fault anyone who likes them here, but I'll side with the Tide.
ATS pick: Alabama 28, LSU 17
Coughlin: For the first time since 2009, I will not be on the sidelines for what is one of my favorite games of the year, every year. This year the teams square off in Tuscaloosa, which makes me miss it a little less, but that's just because Baton Rouge is my favorite campus in the country. Let's get to the game. It's pretty simple for me -- what do you expect from Brandon Harris, the LSU quarterback? I don't expect much, simply because I just don't see it. He's ninth in the conference in completion percentage and 11th in passing passing yards. Yes, I know, he's so low because of the success of the ground game. But as you know from my previous feelings, this Alabama front seven is unreal and I don't see the LSU offense doing much on a Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Hey, be happy LSU fans. I'm picking against your Tigers ... again.
ATS pick: Alabama 24, LSU 13
Florida State Seminoles (+12) at Clemson Tigers
Fallica: I've thrown the question out there this week to a bunch of people: Is this the biggest game for Clemson since it won the national title? The Tigers can dispatch the kings of the ACC and would be a near lock to reach the College Football Playoff. A loss would have people saying they couldn't even beat FSU on their home field as a double-digit favorite, especially with the 'Noles as vulnerable as they've been in a while. Clemson should have won the game last year in Tallahassee, but a series of head-shaking mistakes did them in. On paper, this is no contest. Clemson is in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. FSU has just one win over a team with a winning record, injury concerns and, apparently, a decision to make at QB. I think Clemson will win, but I don't think it will be as easy as many people think, given all the stakes of this game and Clemson's new found position as CFP No. 1.
ATS pick: Clemson 30, Florida State 24
Coughlin: What should we expect from Florida State at the quarterback position? Everett Golson or Sean McGuire? Only Jimbo knows, and that's the way Jimbo likes it. Speaking of Jimbo Fisher, this is the first time since he has been the FSU head coach that he has been a double-digit underdog and that makes me fascinated in the style in which Jimbo chooses to call his offensive plays. On the other hand, I kind of challenged Deshaun Watson before he and the Tigers went to Miami and put it on the 'Canes, and he is now playing the best he's played all year. Let's go Dabo!
ATS pick: Clemson 38, FSU 24
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Fallica: Well, this is what we've been waiting for in the Big 12. It's time to find out how the backloaded schedule in November will shake itself out. The Cowboys rallied from 17 down last week to avoid the upset trap and have all their goals still in front of them. TCU has been putting up points on everyone, but has faced just one team with a winning record and three of its four road games were decided by a touchdown or less, including a comeback win at Kansas State. This will be the Horned Frogs' toughest test to date -- a top-25 defense on the road. I love what J.W. Walsh brought to the Cowboys offense last week. There could be something special going on in Stillwater this year and I would be surprised if TCU escaped the final four games unbeaten, with the two trips to the state of Oklahoma and a home game vs Baylor. The last time a top-10 team visited Stillwater, it left with a loss. I think it will happen again here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State 49, TCU 45
Coughlin: Let me just start out by saying that I am worried about the path in which the Big 12 is headed as a conference as we get deeper in the season. That's because there is no title game and the conference schedule is so backloaded. I will also add that the only way a Big 12 team gets in the playoff is if it goes undefeated. It's really hard for me to go against Oklahoma State in this spot, because I know OSU head coach Mike Gundy will have his team ready and he will not be afraid to take shots in this game. But seriously, can't you just say whoever kicks the most field goals in this game will lose? I do think TCU is one of the most improved teams from the start of the season, and I simply trust them in this spot.
ATS pick: TCU 48, Oklahoma State 35
San Jose State Spartans (+12.5) vs. BYU Cougars
Fallica: The Spartan defense has played pretty well this year, holding opponents to 5.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 2 in FBS) and held Auburn to 342 yards in Jordan-Hare. Running back Tyler Ervin is coming off a huge game vs. New Mexico and if that confidence carries into this week -- and his running allows them to eat some clock -- that, along with a better than you would think pass defense, might cause the Spartans to stick around in this one.
ATS pick: BYU 27, San Jose State 20
Vanderbilt Commodores (+21) at Florida Gators
Fallica: This has all the looks of a letdown game for the Gators, who are coming off a throttling of Georgia last week. Vanderbilt's defense couldn't hold up against the Houston spread last week, but the Commodores are still No. 17 nationally in defensive efficiency and have been in every SEC game they have played this year. Now, the offense is horrific and I can't see them scoring more than 14, but that might be enough. The Gators win and clinch the SEC East -- and maybe national coach of the year honors for Jim McElwain -- but the Vandy defense keeps things relatively interesting for a little while at least.
ATS pick: Florida 28, Vanderbilt 10
Idaho Vandals (+9.5) at South Alabama Jaguars
Fallica: Sun Belt rivals Idaho and South Alabama -- OK, I'll stop right there.
Kidding aside, the Vandals have turned it around since a 1-4 start and, if they hadn't coughed up a 23-point lead last week, would bring a three-game winning streak into this one. USA has really struggled to get solid QB play this year and with Matt Linehan coming off a couple of good outings, the Vandals offense again might put up some points. FPI has found some value here as well, saying South Alabama is roughly a five-point favorite. I'll take the better offense, the hotter team and the points.
ATS pick: Idaho 24, South Alabama 20
Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Fallica: Indiana has lost four straight since a 4-0 start and the Hoosiers are now scrambling for bowl eligibility. The Hoosiers have nearly pulled upsets over Ohio State and Michigan State, so they can definitely put a scare into the Hawkeyes as well, given that the Buckeyes and Spartans have better offenses (Iowa had just 293 yards vs. Maryland last week). The Hoosiers have a knack of allowing big plays (10 20-yard plays in losses to MSU and OSU) and have had lapses in the kicking game. IU will score, but the Iowa defense will grind out another win.
ATS pick: Iowa 30, Indiana 27
Washington Huskies (-1) vs. Utah Utes
Fallica: A common narrative I've seen this week is, "Utah is an underdog at Washington?" We've already had the somebody knows something chat a few weeks back, so in addition to that, I will say the Washington defense will make it very hard for Utah to run the ball. Travis Feeney and that group already shut down much better offenses in USC and Arizona. The Huskies are No. 5 in the country in defensive efficiency and while the offense has struggled, I suspect it will do enough at home to push their mark to 5-4 this season.
ATS pick: Washington 24, Utah 16
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Fallica: Marshall is outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency in part to numerous injuries suffered this season. That should help a MTSU defense that has been beaten up by Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech the last few weeks. Middle Tennessee has been a pretty good home team this year, scoring 70, 73 and 42 in its three home games against non-SEC teams. Coming off an embarrassing road loss last week at Louisiana Tech, the Blue Raiders need a win this week to avoid having to win out in order to reach a bowl game. I'd be very surprised if they didn't come to play this week.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee 37, Marshall 24
Maryland Terrapins (+13) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Fallica: The Terps have shown a good bit of life the last two weeks under Mike Locksley. Problem is, they just can't stop turning the ball over. They have nine in the last two games and 28 on the season. But the defense has held up in the last two games despite those turnovers. Maryland outgained Penn State by 103 yards and held Iowa to 293 yards. Wisconsin's defense has held four of five Big Ten teams to 13 points or fewer. The return of Corey Clement was a boost to the Badgers offense last week and he'll have to make some plays this week as well to survive an upset trap.
ATS pick: Wisconsin 24, Maryland 17
Arkansas Razorbacks (+11) at Ole Miss Rebels
Coughlin: When we get this late in the season, call me crazy but I will more often than not always take double-digit points in a conference game, let alone it being a division game. The Ole Miss offense comes in averaging more than 39 points, so we will have to hope the Hogs' defense can slow them down a little, but I honestly think the Razorbacks will do an effective job in keeping Chad Kelly off the field with their own running game, which features Alex Collins, who is 40 yards away from 1,000 this year. Coach Bret Bielema keeps it close
ATS pick: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 20
Cincinnati Bearcats (+9) at Houston Cougars
Coughlin: Houston has easily been one of my favorite teams of the year, and I was on them early, even in the preseason -- but I did shy away from calling them to go undefeated. The reason is because I worry about how ready the Cougars are in their first season under Tom Herman. He made it a point to make training camp the toughest thing his team has ever had to overcome, but I just think Cincinnati is more battle tested in terms of competition on the field. These two teams are ranked No. 2 and 3 in the conference in points per game, so expect a Big 12-type pingpong match. I'll take coach Tommy Tuberville and the points
ATS pick: Houston 48, Cincinnati 42
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NY Giants fan, anyone?
Best Week 10 CFB totals bets
Warren Sharp
Using an advanced, metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.
Record this season
Full recommendations: 11-3
Split recommendations: 6-6
Overall: 17-9
Here are his top Week 10 college football totals bets:
TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Total: 76.5
Throw out prior meetings when TCU's defense was a top-20 unit and Oklahoma State's offense struggled. In 2014, using a custom efficiency metric, I graded TCU as the eighth-best defense in the country; in 2015, it is 66th. In 2014, in weighted red zone defense, TCU was eighth; in 2015 it is 61st. Oklahoma State stands to have far better success this year than it did in 2014.
In terms of overall pace and pressure for production, Oklahoma State was coming off of games vs. Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas before facing Texas Tech. There was a reason none of those opposing teams scored as often against Oklahoma State nor inspired a back-and-forth pace of play: All four of those teams rank 73rd or worse in third down offense, three of the four ranked 88th or worse in the previously mentioned efficiency metric and were 73rd or worse in explosive play offense. Meanwhile, in all of those metrics, TCU and Texas Tech's offenses are far more similar, with TCU's offense ranking second in the nation in all three statistics. This will be a shootout.
ESPN Chalk lean: Over 76.5
Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars
Total: 72
This matchup features two top-10 offenses in adjusted pace, and both teams rank in the top four in explosive play offense. Houston has a very efficient offense and likes to run the football more than many up-tempo offenses, which are more passing-centric. But it's the perfect matchup for running the ball, as the Bearcats literally rank as the nation's least-efficient rushing defense. While the Cougars hang their hats on their defense, the quality of opposition the last three weeks is unmistakably bad. The offenses of Vanderbilt, Central Florida and Tulane rank 108th or worse in weighted red zone offense, 112th or worse in a custom metric I invented to measure efficiency and 113th or worse in explosive play offense; Cincinnati's offense ranks 16th, third and fourth respectively in those three metrics. If the Bearcats offense is able to break big plays or penetrate deep enough into the Houston's defensive red zone, they will have success, as the Cougars actually rank 125th in the nation in red zone D, allowing touchdowns on 79 percent of red zone trips.
ESPN Chalk play: Over 72
New Mexico State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats
Total: 73
Last week I recommended the first half under when New Mexico State hosted Idaho, and it went under with the Aggies producing just 7 points. In the second half, down 16 points and needing to chase, New Mexico rallied and produced 48 more points to earn its first win of the season in overtime. It's not often you see a total this high with offenses this bad and inconsistent, but it's because of such miserable defense we see a total set this high. Even ignoring the potential weather, there is a chance New Mexico State's offense comes out flat after expending enormous amounts of effort to produce the comeback for its first win of the season. As such, when offenses ultimately can get into rhythm late but may start slowly, I'll advocate getting in on a first half recommendation only.
ESPN Chalk play: Under 37 first half (split recommendation)
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Total: 55
The Jayhawks are one of the least efficient offenses in the nation, but their defense ranks dead last in a number of key metrics. However, a large part of that relates to their schedule. Their last four games were against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor. Every single one of those offenses ranks in the top 20 in third down offense (Texas ranks 107th), top 20 in explosive offense (Texas ranks 98th) and top 20 in a custom metric I invented to measure efficiency (in which Texas ranks 114th). In its last two home games, Texas did not allow Oklahoma or Kansas State to exceed 17 points and Kansas has failed to exceed 14 points in any road game this year. The last two meetings between these programs saw 13 and 17 points scored in the first half respectively, so we'll split this one between first half and full game.
ESPN Chalk play: Under 29.5 first half (split recommendation)
Warren Sharp
Using an advanced, metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.
Record this season
Full recommendations: 11-3
Split recommendations: 6-6
Overall: 17-9
Here are his top Week 10 college football totals bets:
TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Total: 76.5
Throw out prior meetings when TCU's defense was a top-20 unit and Oklahoma State's offense struggled. In 2014, using a custom efficiency metric, I graded TCU as the eighth-best defense in the country; in 2015, it is 66th. In 2014, in weighted red zone defense, TCU was eighth; in 2015 it is 61st. Oklahoma State stands to have far better success this year than it did in 2014.
In terms of overall pace and pressure for production, Oklahoma State was coming off of games vs. Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas before facing Texas Tech. There was a reason none of those opposing teams scored as often against Oklahoma State nor inspired a back-and-forth pace of play: All four of those teams rank 73rd or worse in third down offense, three of the four ranked 88th or worse in the previously mentioned efficiency metric and were 73rd or worse in explosive play offense. Meanwhile, in all of those metrics, TCU and Texas Tech's offenses are far more similar, with TCU's offense ranking second in the nation in all three statistics. This will be a shootout.
ESPN Chalk lean: Over 76.5
Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars
Total: 72
This matchup features two top-10 offenses in adjusted pace, and both teams rank in the top four in explosive play offense. Houston has a very efficient offense and likes to run the football more than many up-tempo offenses, which are more passing-centric. But it's the perfect matchup for running the ball, as the Bearcats literally rank as the nation's least-efficient rushing defense. While the Cougars hang their hats on their defense, the quality of opposition the last three weeks is unmistakably bad. The offenses of Vanderbilt, Central Florida and Tulane rank 108th or worse in weighted red zone offense, 112th or worse in a custom metric I invented to measure efficiency and 113th or worse in explosive play offense; Cincinnati's offense ranks 16th, third and fourth respectively in those three metrics. If the Bearcats offense is able to break big plays or penetrate deep enough into the Houston's defensive red zone, they will have success, as the Cougars actually rank 125th in the nation in red zone D, allowing touchdowns on 79 percent of red zone trips.
ESPN Chalk play: Over 72
New Mexico State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats
Total: 73
Last week I recommended the first half under when New Mexico State hosted Idaho, and it went under with the Aggies producing just 7 points. In the second half, down 16 points and needing to chase, New Mexico rallied and produced 48 more points to earn its first win of the season in overtime. It's not often you see a total this high with offenses this bad and inconsistent, but it's because of such miserable defense we see a total set this high. Even ignoring the potential weather, there is a chance New Mexico State's offense comes out flat after expending enormous amounts of effort to produce the comeback for its first win of the season. As such, when offenses ultimately can get into rhythm late but may start slowly, I'll advocate getting in on a first half recommendation only.
ESPN Chalk play: Under 37 first half (split recommendation)
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Total: 55
The Jayhawks are one of the least efficient offenses in the nation, but their defense ranks dead last in a number of key metrics. However, a large part of that relates to their schedule. Their last four games were against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor. Every single one of those offenses ranks in the top 20 in third down offense (Texas ranks 107th), top 20 in explosive offense (Texas ranks 98th) and top 20 in a custom metric I invented to measure efficiency (in which Texas ranks 114th). In its last two home games, Texas did not allow Oklahoma or Kansas State to exceed 17 points and Kansas has failed to exceed 14 points in any road game this year. The last two meetings between these programs saw 13 and 17 points scored in the first half respectively, so we'll split this one between first half and full game.
ESPN Chalk play: Under 29.5 first half (split recommendation)
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NY Giants fan, anyone?
Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 10
Will Harris
Dwight Garner's knee was also down in 1982, but the reason the Cal-Stanford play has been remembered over time as one of the sport's great finishes rather than one of the sport's darkest officiating gaffes is that the play was close enough to have been reasonably misinterpreted by the officials on the field given the available vantage points. ACC officials calling Miami (FL) at Duke gave us an unlikely special-teams play that many are claiming belongs in the all-time conversation with Cal-Stanford, and rivals the previous two weeks' Michigan-Michigan State and Georgia Tech-Florida State finishes. But the officiating errors on display were so monstrously egregious that this game deserves to be remembered only as one of the sport's all-time hose jobs and black moments.
When the game is over the game is over, and wins and losses are never overturned (except in the imagination of NCAA bureaucrats), so justice requires us to remember what really happened. This is also the week to remind everyone that until the final four are actually set, it's not the polls but the conference races that provide the drama worthy of our attention. We'll check in on all of them this week.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 9
The Week 10 media focus will be squarely on the first dose of meaningless information about the prizes that are won off the field in this sport. But while that red herring will be fed to an eager and gullible public on Tuesday night, let's not forget about the 10 exciting championship races that will actually be decided on the field. We covered the Mountain West race in this space last week; here's a quick glance at the other nine.
Four-way battle in the AAC
Four teams -- Temple, Navy, Memphis and Houston -- are undefeated in league play and control their own destiny in the conference race. Temple has a two-game lead in the East division, and of the three West leaders plays only Memphis. The Tigers have the best offense of the group, led by ace triggerman Paxton Lynch, but Memphis is also the most one-dimensional of the four teams, relying on its offense to outscore opponents, whereas the other three have clear offensive identities but can hang their hats on consistent defensive performances as well.
Clarity coming to the ACC race this week
The winner of this week's Clemson-Florida State tilt will build a two-game lead that all but locks up the Atlantic division. The winner of Saturday's Duke at North Carolina clash will be in command of the Coastal division, and a Duke win lets Pittsburgh back into the co-pilot's seat as well.
Big 12 race just now heating up, as intended
The league has controversially arranged its conference schedule so that the preseason favorites don't start playing each other until late in the year. That's drawn cries of foul play from coaches and media at the less fortunate schools forced to play front-heavy schedules less conducive to success, but it has achieved the desired effect, which is that the drama is just now beginning. It's a four-team race, and while Oklahoma is the only one of the group with a loss, all four still have equal control of the conference race. That will change this week when TCU visits Oklahoma State. On Thursday, postgame cameras caught Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson asking West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen how the latter liked TCU's chances against Baylor. Holgorsen's team played both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State immediately prior to Baylor, but no inquiries were made about those two teams. Patterson must hope his players do as he says and not as he does when it comes to looking past the Cowboys and Sooners to the season finale versus the Bears.
Three of the 11 remaining unbeatens hail from Big Ten
The Big Ten has a sordid history of embarrassing and irrational tiebreaker shenanigans (1973, 2010) and might again find itself relying on voters outside the conference to tell the league who its champions are. Michigan is a game down in the East to unbeatens Ohio State and Michigan State, but if the Buckeyes beat Sparty and lose to Michigan, the East champ could be determined by committee ranking.
Undefeated Iowa is driving in the West, but the Hawkeyes' November slate includes two road games and two trophy games, so a Wisconsin team that's playing its best ball of the year could theoretically slip back into the mix. The Badgers are also getting healthier while Iowa is not, though we have limited faith in Wisconsin's chances against Northwestern and especially Minnesota to close the year.
Eagles crashing Conference USA race
The expected favorites -- Western Kentucky and Marshall in the East, Louisiana Tech in the West -- are three of the teams still in control of the league race, but Southern Miss has risen from the ashes of a 4-32 record from 2012-14 and is now the fourth team in command of its own destiny. The Eagles are mostly doing it with offense, which is what they thought they'd be getting when Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Todd Monken was hired as head coach, but the defense is playing much better as well. Lack of institutional support will prevent Southern Miss from returning to its glory days as a small-school power until changes are made in the administration, but the current regime is in solid shape thanks to Monken's growth as a coach. No matter the résumé as coordinator, it's hard for us to form a good read on a coach's chances for success until we see him in that role for a while. It's still too early to say what Monken's ceiling is here, but we've been impressed with his development, as he's gone from clueless to confident in less than three years and has the Eagles headed for the postseason.
Unbeaten Toledo ready to depose kingpin NIU
Northern Illinois has won the more difficult West division five years running under three different head coaches, and has staved off upset in the title game to claim the MAC championship in three of those five. Toledo has lost to NIU in each of those five years, three times by a single score. Now the Rockets finally have the best team and catch the game at home as well. Whatever happens Tuesday night, Western Michigan still shares control of the race, and a good Central Michigan team lurks at just a game back. Both of those teams are tough to beat, and both remain on Toledo's schedule.
Bowling Green has a two-game lead in the East, but the Falcons' November schedule is a lot tougher than the soft October slate. However, a win versus Ohio on Wednesday would leave the Falcons needing just one more win to clinch the division. Like the Big 12 and AAC races, the MAC's better teams play each other mostly in November.
Pac-12 North all but decided; South still open.
Stanford can clinch the North division with a win over Oregon next week, and even with a loss would get a do-over chance versus Cal the following week. The Cardinal would actually still be favored to win the division even if it lost both those games.
Both Utah and UCLA control the South race, and any Utah loss would put USC back in command as well. If UCLA can knock off Utah in Week 12, the USC-UCLA game would be for all the marbles the following week.
Florida's unlikely division title run almost complete
The Gators clinch the East by beating either Vandy or South Carolina. They'll face one of Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss, with the latter two in control of the race currently, and Bama needing some help. The Rebels will be hard-pressed to make it through home games with Arkansas and LSU, and if they do, Dak Prescott still awaits them in Starkville. We doubt Ole Miss can run that gauntlet successfully, and if not the Rebs will need the LSU-Bama winner to drop a game somewhere else.
Preseason favorites on track in Sun Belt
Appalachian State whipped rival Georgia Southern last Thursday and remains unbeaten in league play. The Mountaineers share the top of the standings with Arkansas State, also 4-0 in SBC play. Those two clash this Thursday, with the winner taking sole control of the Sun Belt race. Louisiana and Georgia Southern still lurk with just one league loss.
Games of Interest, Week 10
Middle Tennessee State (-3) versus Marshall
Some tough-to-swallow last-second losses to Power 5 foes Illinois and Vandy put this team in the tank for a bit, but the Raiders have had an open date to regroup and still have some fight left. Marshall is 8-1 but has not faced a team ranked higher than 83rd in FPI.
Ohio State (-23) versus Minnesota
A highly emotional home game with an ending like that ... it will be very difficult for Minnesota to recover from the effects of losing to Michigan in time to prepare for what Ohio State brings to the field. The Gophers did a super job last week channeling their emotion over Jerry Kill's retirement into quality preparation and performance, but this week reality will set in and the task will be tougher.
South Alabama (-9.5) versus Idaho Texas State (-15) versus New Mexico State
We're tentatively interested in fading both participants in last week's Idaho-New Mexico State thriller as they hit the road for Week 10. Idaho let a 30-7 second-half lead slip away as New Mexico State scored twice in the final four minutes to tie the game, then won it in overtime. Idaho had a trying and travel-filled October that included an emotional win at Troy after the Vandals' delayed plane arrived just a few hours before kickoff. Now a third flight in four weeks comes on the heels of a devastating loss.
New Mexico State, for its part, is likely still celebrating the snapping of a 17-game losing streak. Bad teams often handle success poorly, and consequently don't usually show well twice in a row. A road trip to face a Texas State team that's had extra prep time and still has live bowl hopes is not an ideal scenario for the Aggies. California (+5.5) at Oregon
We'd say we like Cal because Jared Goff and the Bears' offense might light up the weak Oregon secondary to the tune of something like 500 passing yards, but Oregon has won two of the four games this year in which it allowed 530 yards or more. The latest was an overtime miracle versus Arizona State in which the Ducks were outgained 742-501 and lost the first-down battle 37-19. Instead, we'll say it's the combination of Goff and Cal's improved defense, which is allowing 26 points and 418 yards per game so far this season after giving up 46 points and 530 yards two years ago, and 40 points and 512 yards last season.
Movers and Shakers
Wednesday night's Bowling Green-Ohio clash opened with the Falcons as 15-point favorites, but that number has already climbed all the way to 19.
UNLV moved from minus-7 to minus-9.5 over Hawaii, whose head coach Norm Chow was fired Sunday.
Troy has been bet up from minus-6 to minus-10 at home versus Louisiana-Monroe.
Arizona State opened as a one-point road favorite in Pullman, but Washington State is now laying two.
South Alabama opened minus-6 versus Idaho, but has climbed to minus-9.5.
Central Florida, the only winless team in the FBS save Kansas, opened plus-13.5 at Tulsa, but that number is now plus-16.
Chalk Bits
Alabama has won four straight versus LSU, but the Saban-Miles series has been so competitive that in nine meetings, as many games have gone to overtime (three) as have been decided by more than a touchdown. The stakes have been so high that the demoralized loser has gone on to lose a subsequent game as a favorite in all but two seasons.
Syracuse has been outgained in every FBS contest this season and has gone over the total in all but one game. The winner has scored 20 points or fewer in all but one of Louisville's ACC games this year.
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was 1-3 versus Brian Kelly's Notre Dame teams as Michigan State's defensive coordinator. Pitt has beaten the Irish in four of their past eight meetings, and the underdog has covered nine straight in the series.
Three SEC meetings between Auburn and Texas A&M have produced at least 79 points, and each has gone over the total. Auburn rolled up 630 total yards of offense and outgained Alabama by nearly 100 yards in defeat last November, but in nine games since has not managed 450 total yards or 250 rushing yards in any game, has outgained only Mississippi State, and has covered just once -- that by a hair at Kentucky a few weeks ago.
Will Harris
Dwight Garner's knee was also down in 1982, but the reason the Cal-Stanford play has been remembered over time as one of the sport's great finishes rather than one of the sport's darkest officiating gaffes is that the play was close enough to have been reasonably misinterpreted by the officials on the field given the available vantage points. ACC officials calling Miami (FL) at Duke gave us an unlikely special-teams play that many are claiming belongs in the all-time conversation with Cal-Stanford, and rivals the previous two weeks' Michigan-Michigan State and Georgia Tech-Florida State finishes. But the officiating errors on display were so monstrously egregious that this game deserves to be remembered only as one of the sport's all-time hose jobs and black moments.
When the game is over the game is over, and wins and losses are never overturned (except in the imagination of NCAA bureaucrats), so justice requires us to remember what really happened. This is also the week to remind everyone that until the final four are actually set, it's not the polls but the conference races that provide the drama worthy of our attention. We'll check in on all of them this week.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 9
The Week 10 media focus will be squarely on the first dose of meaningless information about the prizes that are won off the field in this sport. But while that red herring will be fed to an eager and gullible public on Tuesday night, let's not forget about the 10 exciting championship races that will actually be decided on the field. We covered the Mountain West race in this space last week; here's a quick glance at the other nine.
Four-way battle in the AAC
Four teams -- Temple, Navy, Memphis and Houston -- are undefeated in league play and control their own destiny in the conference race. Temple has a two-game lead in the East division, and of the three West leaders plays only Memphis. The Tigers have the best offense of the group, led by ace triggerman Paxton Lynch, but Memphis is also the most one-dimensional of the four teams, relying on its offense to outscore opponents, whereas the other three have clear offensive identities but can hang their hats on consistent defensive performances as well.
Clarity coming to the ACC race this week
The winner of this week's Clemson-Florida State tilt will build a two-game lead that all but locks up the Atlantic division. The winner of Saturday's Duke at North Carolina clash will be in command of the Coastal division, and a Duke win lets Pittsburgh back into the co-pilot's seat as well.
Big 12 race just now heating up, as intended
The league has controversially arranged its conference schedule so that the preseason favorites don't start playing each other until late in the year. That's drawn cries of foul play from coaches and media at the less fortunate schools forced to play front-heavy schedules less conducive to success, but it has achieved the desired effect, which is that the drama is just now beginning. It's a four-team race, and while Oklahoma is the only one of the group with a loss, all four still have equal control of the conference race. That will change this week when TCU visits Oklahoma State. On Thursday, postgame cameras caught Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson asking West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen how the latter liked TCU's chances against Baylor. Holgorsen's team played both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State immediately prior to Baylor, but no inquiries were made about those two teams. Patterson must hope his players do as he says and not as he does when it comes to looking past the Cowboys and Sooners to the season finale versus the Bears.
Three of the 11 remaining unbeatens hail from Big Ten
The Big Ten has a sordid history of embarrassing and irrational tiebreaker shenanigans (1973, 2010) and might again find itself relying on voters outside the conference to tell the league who its champions are. Michigan is a game down in the East to unbeatens Ohio State and Michigan State, but if the Buckeyes beat Sparty and lose to Michigan, the East champ could be determined by committee ranking.
Undefeated Iowa is driving in the West, but the Hawkeyes' November slate includes two road games and two trophy games, so a Wisconsin team that's playing its best ball of the year could theoretically slip back into the mix. The Badgers are also getting healthier while Iowa is not, though we have limited faith in Wisconsin's chances against Northwestern and especially Minnesota to close the year.
Eagles crashing Conference USA race
The expected favorites -- Western Kentucky and Marshall in the East, Louisiana Tech in the West -- are three of the teams still in control of the league race, but Southern Miss has risen from the ashes of a 4-32 record from 2012-14 and is now the fourth team in command of its own destiny. The Eagles are mostly doing it with offense, which is what they thought they'd be getting when Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Todd Monken was hired as head coach, but the defense is playing much better as well. Lack of institutional support will prevent Southern Miss from returning to its glory days as a small-school power until changes are made in the administration, but the current regime is in solid shape thanks to Monken's growth as a coach. No matter the résumé as coordinator, it's hard for us to form a good read on a coach's chances for success until we see him in that role for a while. It's still too early to say what Monken's ceiling is here, but we've been impressed with his development, as he's gone from clueless to confident in less than three years and has the Eagles headed for the postseason.
Unbeaten Toledo ready to depose kingpin NIU
Northern Illinois has won the more difficult West division five years running under three different head coaches, and has staved off upset in the title game to claim the MAC championship in three of those five. Toledo has lost to NIU in each of those five years, three times by a single score. Now the Rockets finally have the best team and catch the game at home as well. Whatever happens Tuesday night, Western Michigan still shares control of the race, and a good Central Michigan team lurks at just a game back. Both of those teams are tough to beat, and both remain on Toledo's schedule.
Bowling Green has a two-game lead in the East, but the Falcons' November schedule is a lot tougher than the soft October slate. However, a win versus Ohio on Wednesday would leave the Falcons needing just one more win to clinch the division. Like the Big 12 and AAC races, the MAC's better teams play each other mostly in November.
Pac-12 North all but decided; South still open.
Stanford can clinch the North division with a win over Oregon next week, and even with a loss would get a do-over chance versus Cal the following week. The Cardinal would actually still be favored to win the division even if it lost both those games.
Both Utah and UCLA control the South race, and any Utah loss would put USC back in command as well. If UCLA can knock off Utah in Week 12, the USC-UCLA game would be for all the marbles the following week.
Florida's unlikely division title run almost complete
The Gators clinch the East by beating either Vandy or South Carolina. They'll face one of Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss, with the latter two in control of the race currently, and Bama needing some help. The Rebels will be hard-pressed to make it through home games with Arkansas and LSU, and if they do, Dak Prescott still awaits them in Starkville. We doubt Ole Miss can run that gauntlet successfully, and if not the Rebs will need the LSU-Bama winner to drop a game somewhere else.
Preseason favorites on track in Sun Belt
Appalachian State whipped rival Georgia Southern last Thursday and remains unbeaten in league play. The Mountaineers share the top of the standings with Arkansas State, also 4-0 in SBC play. Those two clash this Thursday, with the winner taking sole control of the Sun Belt race. Louisiana and Georgia Southern still lurk with just one league loss.
Games of Interest, Week 10
Middle Tennessee State (-3) versus Marshall
Some tough-to-swallow last-second losses to Power 5 foes Illinois and Vandy put this team in the tank for a bit, but the Raiders have had an open date to regroup and still have some fight left. Marshall is 8-1 but has not faced a team ranked higher than 83rd in FPI.
Ohio State (-23) versus Minnesota
A highly emotional home game with an ending like that ... it will be very difficult for Minnesota to recover from the effects of losing to Michigan in time to prepare for what Ohio State brings to the field. The Gophers did a super job last week channeling their emotion over Jerry Kill's retirement into quality preparation and performance, but this week reality will set in and the task will be tougher.
South Alabama (-9.5) versus Idaho Texas State (-15) versus New Mexico State
We're tentatively interested in fading both participants in last week's Idaho-New Mexico State thriller as they hit the road for Week 10. Idaho let a 30-7 second-half lead slip away as New Mexico State scored twice in the final four minutes to tie the game, then won it in overtime. Idaho had a trying and travel-filled October that included an emotional win at Troy after the Vandals' delayed plane arrived just a few hours before kickoff. Now a third flight in four weeks comes on the heels of a devastating loss.
New Mexico State, for its part, is likely still celebrating the snapping of a 17-game losing streak. Bad teams often handle success poorly, and consequently don't usually show well twice in a row. A road trip to face a Texas State team that's had extra prep time and still has live bowl hopes is not an ideal scenario for the Aggies. California (+5.5) at Oregon
We'd say we like Cal because Jared Goff and the Bears' offense might light up the weak Oregon secondary to the tune of something like 500 passing yards, but Oregon has won two of the four games this year in which it allowed 530 yards or more. The latest was an overtime miracle versus Arizona State in which the Ducks were outgained 742-501 and lost the first-down battle 37-19. Instead, we'll say it's the combination of Goff and Cal's improved defense, which is allowing 26 points and 418 yards per game so far this season after giving up 46 points and 530 yards two years ago, and 40 points and 512 yards last season.
Movers and Shakers
Wednesday night's Bowling Green-Ohio clash opened with the Falcons as 15-point favorites, but that number has already climbed all the way to 19.
UNLV moved from minus-7 to minus-9.5 over Hawaii, whose head coach Norm Chow was fired Sunday.
Troy has been bet up from minus-6 to minus-10 at home versus Louisiana-Monroe.
Arizona State opened as a one-point road favorite in Pullman, but Washington State is now laying two.
South Alabama opened minus-6 versus Idaho, but has climbed to minus-9.5.
Central Florida, the only winless team in the FBS save Kansas, opened plus-13.5 at Tulsa, but that number is now plus-16.
Chalk Bits
Alabama has won four straight versus LSU, but the Saban-Miles series has been so competitive that in nine meetings, as many games have gone to overtime (three) as have been decided by more than a touchdown. The stakes have been so high that the demoralized loser has gone on to lose a subsequent game as a favorite in all but two seasons.
Syracuse has been outgained in every FBS contest this season and has gone over the total in all but one game. The winner has scored 20 points or fewer in all but one of Louisville's ACC games this year.
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was 1-3 versus Brian Kelly's Notre Dame teams as Michigan State's defensive coordinator. Pitt has beaten the Irish in four of their past eight meetings, and the underdog has covered nine straight in the series.
Three SEC meetings between Auburn and Texas A&M have produced at least 79 points, and each has gone over the total. Auburn rolled up 630 total yards of offense and outgained Alabama by nearly 100 yards in defeat last November, but in nine games since has not managed 450 total yards or 250 rushing yards in any game, has outgained only Mississippi State, and has covered just once -- that by a hair at Kentucky a few weeks ago.
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How to bet projected College Football Playoff games
Chris Fallica, Will Harris and Phil Steele
The first unveiling of the College Football Playoff bracket on Tuesday night featured a projected matchup of Clemson (No. 1) vs. Alabama (No. 4), and LSU (No. 2) vs. defending champion Ohio State (No. 3).
ESPN Chalk's Chris Fallica, Will Harris and Phil Steele got together to break down the potential matchups from a betting perspective.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers
Chris Fallica says: "If there is one thing which has given the Alabama defense fits, it's a mobile QB -- we saw that with Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs earlier this year. With a fully healthy Deshaun Watson, the Tigers will use the QB run as a weapon to negate the Tide's front seven and avoid obvious passing situations in which Eddie Jackson and Minkah Fitzpatrick can make game-changing plays. The Tide's offensive line hasn't been its usual dominant self this year and now faces its defensive peer in Clemson. Brent Venables' crew will make life very difficult for Jacob Coker, leading the Tigers to the national title game."
ATS pick: Clemson
Game score: Clemson 23, Alabama 14
Phil Steele says: "Clemson has the dangerous mobile QB that has given the Tide's defense trouble in years past. I still feel Alabama is one the best teams in the country with the strongest defense. This would be Nick Saban's fifth championship or playoff game and Dabo Swinney's first."
ATS pick: Alabama
Game score: Alabama 27, Clemson 20
Will Harris says: "There haven't been many years that Clemson could line up with Alabama and claim to have the best player on the field, but that might be the case now. DeShaun Watson is everything he's cracked up to be and then some, and Clemson wouldn't be here without him. And the overall talent level is now on par with that of the SEC's upper division. The oddsmakers say this is a fair fight, and the Tigers' rising talent level supports that claim.
"In the first year sans Chad Morris, the Clemson offense has relied on the inside run much more heavily than in the past. Clemson's offensive and defensive lines have exceeded expectations this year, and Wayne Gallman is a tough, physical back. This bunch matches up with an SEC champion-type team better than ever before. But Clemson is still probably a little short in the trenches (partly due to an outdated strength and conditioning program). Alabama's defensive line has a significant advantage against the tailback run game, and given the ongoing development of the Tide's secondary, a one-dimensional attack is not going to be enough, even under Watson's direction. Nor is the Clemson linebacking corps quite as developed as it needs to be to keep a back like Derrick Henry from moving the chains.
"Apart from shortcomings in the smashmouth game, Clemson has the problem of not having been here before. Most championship organizations contend for championships before winning one, just as most golfers who win majors have previously contended in majors. This effect is compounded by the overall youth that Clemson's putting on the field this year. Right now Dabo Swinney and the Tigers look like an outfit that can get to the show, but not win it all."
ATS pick: Alabama
Game score: Alabama 31, Clemson 21
(No. 3) Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5) vs. LSU Tigers (No. 2)
Chis Fallica says: "How many more times do we have to answer the question about whether Ohio State can handle the SEC and its speed? The Buckeyes are built like an SEC team. I can't wait to see Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott do battle. The difference here is J.T. Barrett, who has bounced back from off-the-field issues and is in position to lead Ohio State to the CFP for the second straight year. Barrett's ability to run and pass will give the LSU defense problems. And LSU isn't a team built to come from behind. I expect Ohio State to start fast and put pressure on the LSU offense from the start, winning in convincing fashion."
ATS pick: Ohio State
Game score: Ohio State 34, LSU 24
Phil Steele says: "I am going under the assumption that J.T. Barrett is back and fully established as the starting QB. Urban Meyer is a perfect 4-0 in playoff and national title games. Both teams have a great RB and solid offensive line. Both teams have premier defenses. These two teams are very close, and while I have the Buckeyes as the stronger team, I would take the 5.5 points."
ATS pick: LSU
Game score: Ohio State 30, LSU 27
Will Harris says: "Both sides would figure to move the ball in this game despite the presence of quality defenses. Ohio State sees a lot of downhill running games in the Big Ten, but nothing quite like Leonard Fournette and the road-graders that LSU has up front. This looks like a toss-up, but we do like the Tigers' chances to stay out of third-and-long and hold the ball for enough prolonged drives to wear the Buckeyes down at the end."
ATS pick: LSU
Game score: LSU 30, Ohio State 28
Chris Fallica, Will Harris and Phil Steele
The first unveiling of the College Football Playoff bracket on Tuesday night featured a projected matchup of Clemson (No. 1) vs. Alabama (No. 4), and LSU (No. 2) vs. defending champion Ohio State (No. 3).
ESPN Chalk's Chris Fallica, Will Harris and Phil Steele got together to break down the potential matchups from a betting perspective.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers
Chris Fallica says: "If there is one thing which has given the Alabama defense fits, it's a mobile QB -- we saw that with Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs earlier this year. With a fully healthy Deshaun Watson, the Tigers will use the QB run as a weapon to negate the Tide's front seven and avoid obvious passing situations in which Eddie Jackson and Minkah Fitzpatrick can make game-changing plays. The Tide's offensive line hasn't been its usual dominant self this year and now faces its defensive peer in Clemson. Brent Venables' crew will make life very difficult for Jacob Coker, leading the Tigers to the national title game."
ATS pick: Clemson
Game score: Clemson 23, Alabama 14
Phil Steele says: "Clemson has the dangerous mobile QB that has given the Tide's defense trouble in years past. I still feel Alabama is one the best teams in the country with the strongest defense. This would be Nick Saban's fifth championship or playoff game and Dabo Swinney's first."
ATS pick: Alabama
Game score: Alabama 27, Clemson 20
Will Harris says: "There haven't been many years that Clemson could line up with Alabama and claim to have the best player on the field, but that might be the case now. DeShaun Watson is everything he's cracked up to be and then some, and Clemson wouldn't be here without him. And the overall talent level is now on par with that of the SEC's upper division. The oddsmakers say this is a fair fight, and the Tigers' rising talent level supports that claim.
"In the first year sans Chad Morris, the Clemson offense has relied on the inside run much more heavily than in the past. Clemson's offensive and defensive lines have exceeded expectations this year, and Wayne Gallman is a tough, physical back. This bunch matches up with an SEC champion-type team better than ever before. But Clemson is still probably a little short in the trenches (partly due to an outdated strength and conditioning program). Alabama's defensive line has a significant advantage against the tailback run game, and given the ongoing development of the Tide's secondary, a one-dimensional attack is not going to be enough, even under Watson's direction. Nor is the Clemson linebacking corps quite as developed as it needs to be to keep a back like Derrick Henry from moving the chains.
"Apart from shortcomings in the smashmouth game, Clemson has the problem of not having been here before. Most championship organizations contend for championships before winning one, just as most golfers who win majors have previously contended in majors. This effect is compounded by the overall youth that Clemson's putting on the field this year. Right now Dabo Swinney and the Tigers look like an outfit that can get to the show, but not win it all."
ATS pick: Alabama
Game score: Alabama 31, Clemson 21
(No. 3) Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5) vs. LSU Tigers (No. 2)
Chis Fallica says: "How many more times do we have to answer the question about whether Ohio State can handle the SEC and its speed? The Buckeyes are built like an SEC team. I can't wait to see Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott do battle. The difference here is J.T. Barrett, who has bounced back from off-the-field issues and is in position to lead Ohio State to the CFP for the second straight year. Barrett's ability to run and pass will give the LSU defense problems. And LSU isn't a team built to come from behind. I expect Ohio State to start fast and put pressure on the LSU offense from the start, winning in convincing fashion."
ATS pick: Ohio State
Game score: Ohio State 34, LSU 24
Phil Steele says: "I am going under the assumption that J.T. Barrett is back and fully established as the starting QB. Urban Meyer is a perfect 4-0 in playoff and national title games. Both teams have a great RB and solid offensive line. Both teams have premier defenses. These two teams are very close, and while I have the Buckeyes as the stronger team, I would take the 5.5 points."
ATS pick: LSU
Game score: Ohio State 30, LSU 27
Will Harris says: "Both sides would figure to move the ball in this game despite the presence of quality defenses. Ohio State sees a lot of downhill running games in the Big Ten, but nothing quite like Leonard Fournette and the road-graders that LSU has up front. This looks like a toss-up, but we do like the Tigers' chances to stay out of third-and-long and hold the ball for enough prolonged drives to wear the Buckeyes down at the end."
ATS pick: LSU
Game score: LSU 30, Ohio State 28
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Football Outsiders: Iowa has better unbeaten chances than you think
Brian Fremeau
A total of 11 teams remain undefeated through eight weeks of the college football season, and six come from either the Big 12 or the Big Ten.
Each member of the Big 12 trio -- Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU -- must play another regular-season game against one another. Thus, there's only a 27 percent chance that an undefeated Big 12 champion will be crowned according to our projection model (see below for FEI ratings explanation).
The Big Ten also has three undefeated teams -- Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa -- but the chances are much greater (72 percent) that at least one will be undefeated by the end of the regular season. Ohio State and Michigan State will face off on Nov. 21, but neither team would face Iowa before the Big Ten title game.
Which teams from those two leagues, and the rest of the country, have the best chance of remaining unblemished?
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0)
82.5 percent chance to win out (up from 80.6 percent last week)
The Tigers allowed a season-high 41 points to North Carolina State, but poured in 56 of their own to hold off the upset bid from the Wolfpack. Our projection model gives Clemson a win likelihood of at least 90 percent in each of its four remaining games, including this weekend's showdown with one-loss Florida State. Clemson was the only team ranked in the top 20 of our opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings last week.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0)
49.0 percent chance to win out (down from 56.4 percent last week)
The Hawkeyes don't have big obstacles in their way down the stretch, but both Minnesota and Purdue improved their positions in our projection model with solid performances over the weekend. Our ratings still suggest Indiana (this weekend) and to Nebraska (Thanksgiving weekend) are the most dangerous opponents left on Iowa's schedule, giving the Hawkeyes a 47 percent chance to win one or both road games.
3. Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
28.8 percent chance to win out (up from 22.2 percent last week)
The Spartans make their own visit to Lincoln, Nebraska, to take on the Cornhuskers this weekend, but our ratings don't think a loss there is particularly likely. The game that will make or break a Big Ten East championship comes in three weeks on the road at Ohio State. The projection model currently gives Michigan State a 41 percent chance to win that game, but Ohio State is trending up.
4. LSU Tigers (7-0)
23.5 percent chance to win out (up from 20.8 percent last week)
The biggest game on the SEC West calendar is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where LSU pays the Crimson Tide a visit on Saturday night. The Tigers have the toughest remaining regular-season schedule of all undefeated teams, and this weekend is the primary reason why -- LSU is the most likely undefeated team to lose on Saturday. If LSU passes this formidable test, there is still a 38 percent likelihood they'll lose to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M down the stretch.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
22.1 percent chance to win out (up from 19.5 percent last week)
Ohio State is one of only a handful of teams that hasn't yet faced an opponent ranked among the top 30 in our opponent-adjusted FEI ratings, and it won't get the chance to change that until the final two weeks of the season. The projection model currently gives the Buckeyes a 60 percent chance to take out Michigan State, but only a 40 percent chance to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Dominant wins over Minnesota and Illinois in the next two weeks should bump up both of those numbers.
6. Memphis Tigers (8-0)
21.1 percent chance to win out (down from 31.2 percent last week)
Memphis is best positioned to win out among the American Athletic Conference challengers, but the next three weeks will be very difficult. The Tigers have a home date with Navy followed by road trips to Houston and Temple -- three teams that are a combined 21-2 through the first two months of the season. Our projections give Memphis a slight edge in each individual game, but a 79 percent chance to lose at least one of the three.
7. Houston Cougars (8-0)
17.6 percent chance to win out (up from 13.6 percent last week)
Houston won't face Temple in the regular season but still has games against Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy left on the schedule. The Cougars have been dominant of late, winning their last three games by an average margin of 39 points, including a 34-0 shutout of Vanderbilt last weekend. The projection model suggests the final month will be much more challenging.
8. Toledo Rockets (7-0)
11.8 percent chance to win out (same as last week)
Very little attention has been paid to Toledo since the American is grabbing all of the Group of 5 headlines away from the MAC. The Rockets don't have any undefeated or one-loss opponents left on their schedule, but the projection model gives both Central Michigan on Nov. 10 and Bowling Green on Nov. 17 a good shot to take out Toledo.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0)
11.5 percent chance to win out (up from 8.7 percent last week)
We've reached November and the Big 12 heavyweights will now have to finally face off against one another in the next several weeks. Oklahoma State has the edge over TCU and Baylor by drawing both the Horned Frogs and Bears (plus the one-loss Oklahoma Sooners) at home over the next four weeks. When even the team with the best chance to run the table in the Big 12 is more likely to lose twice in the final month, the league might not be in the best playoff position by year's end.
10. TCU Horned Frogs (8-0)
10.4 percent chance to win out (up from 2.9 percent last week)
Our projections give TCU a slight edge over Baylor in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency to date, but the Horned Frogs have to win at both Oklahoma and at Oklahoma State before facing off against Baylor on Nov. 27. There is only a 17 percent chance they'll beat both the Cowboys and Sooners, and a 34 percent chance they'll lose both games, according to our model.
11. Baylor Bears (7-0)
8.5 percent chance to win out (down from 11.8 percent last week)
Baylor faces one additional opponent over the final stretch of the season -- at Kansas State this Thursday -- which is the primary reason the Bears rank below TCU on this list. No team is more explosive or efficient offensively, but Baylor hasn't had the best November road results over the years, and trips to Stillwater and Fort Worth in addition to the weeknight visit to Manhattan this week are all potential pitfalls.
Dropped from last week's list of undefeated teams:
Temple Owls (2.8 percent chance to win out as of last week)
* Football Outsiders' FEI ratings are based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency, the net success of each team's non-garbage possessions against FBS opponents, with special emphasis placed on efficient performances against good teams, win or lose. Game projections for each remaining opponent are a function of the FEI ratings, an adjustment for home-field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The percent likelihood each undefeated team will win out is a function of each remaining single-game projection.
Brian Fremeau
A total of 11 teams remain undefeated through eight weeks of the college football season, and six come from either the Big 12 or the Big Ten.
Each member of the Big 12 trio -- Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU -- must play another regular-season game against one another. Thus, there's only a 27 percent chance that an undefeated Big 12 champion will be crowned according to our projection model (see below for FEI ratings explanation).
The Big Ten also has three undefeated teams -- Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa -- but the chances are much greater (72 percent) that at least one will be undefeated by the end of the regular season. Ohio State and Michigan State will face off on Nov. 21, but neither team would face Iowa before the Big Ten title game.
Which teams from those two leagues, and the rest of the country, have the best chance of remaining unblemished?
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0)
82.5 percent chance to win out (up from 80.6 percent last week)
The Tigers allowed a season-high 41 points to North Carolina State, but poured in 56 of their own to hold off the upset bid from the Wolfpack. Our projection model gives Clemson a win likelihood of at least 90 percent in each of its four remaining games, including this weekend's showdown with one-loss Florida State. Clemson was the only team ranked in the top 20 of our opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings last week.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0)
49.0 percent chance to win out (down from 56.4 percent last week)
The Hawkeyes don't have big obstacles in their way down the stretch, but both Minnesota and Purdue improved their positions in our projection model with solid performances over the weekend. Our ratings still suggest Indiana (this weekend) and to Nebraska (Thanksgiving weekend) are the most dangerous opponents left on Iowa's schedule, giving the Hawkeyes a 47 percent chance to win one or both road games.
3. Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
28.8 percent chance to win out (up from 22.2 percent last week)
The Spartans make their own visit to Lincoln, Nebraska, to take on the Cornhuskers this weekend, but our ratings don't think a loss there is particularly likely. The game that will make or break a Big Ten East championship comes in three weeks on the road at Ohio State. The projection model currently gives Michigan State a 41 percent chance to win that game, but Ohio State is trending up.
4. LSU Tigers (7-0)
23.5 percent chance to win out (up from 20.8 percent last week)
The biggest game on the SEC West calendar is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where LSU pays the Crimson Tide a visit on Saturday night. The Tigers have the toughest remaining regular-season schedule of all undefeated teams, and this weekend is the primary reason why -- LSU is the most likely undefeated team to lose on Saturday. If LSU passes this formidable test, there is still a 38 percent likelihood they'll lose to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M down the stretch.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
22.1 percent chance to win out (up from 19.5 percent last week)
Ohio State is one of only a handful of teams that hasn't yet faced an opponent ranked among the top 30 in our opponent-adjusted FEI ratings, and it won't get the chance to change that until the final two weeks of the season. The projection model currently gives the Buckeyes a 60 percent chance to take out Michigan State, but only a 40 percent chance to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Dominant wins over Minnesota and Illinois in the next two weeks should bump up both of those numbers.
6. Memphis Tigers (8-0)
21.1 percent chance to win out (down from 31.2 percent last week)
Memphis is best positioned to win out among the American Athletic Conference challengers, but the next three weeks will be very difficult. The Tigers have a home date with Navy followed by road trips to Houston and Temple -- three teams that are a combined 21-2 through the first two months of the season. Our projections give Memphis a slight edge in each individual game, but a 79 percent chance to lose at least one of the three.
7. Houston Cougars (8-0)
17.6 percent chance to win out (up from 13.6 percent last week)
Houston won't face Temple in the regular season but still has games against Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy left on the schedule. The Cougars have been dominant of late, winning their last three games by an average margin of 39 points, including a 34-0 shutout of Vanderbilt last weekend. The projection model suggests the final month will be much more challenging.
8. Toledo Rockets (7-0)
11.8 percent chance to win out (same as last week)
Very little attention has been paid to Toledo since the American is grabbing all of the Group of 5 headlines away from the MAC. The Rockets don't have any undefeated or one-loss opponents left on their schedule, but the projection model gives both Central Michigan on Nov. 10 and Bowling Green on Nov. 17 a good shot to take out Toledo.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0)
11.5 percent chance to win out (up from 8.7 percent last week)
We've reached November and the Big 12 heavyweights will now have to finally face off against one another in the next several weeks. Oklahoma State has the edge over TCU and Baylor by drawing both the Horned Frogs and Bears (plus the one-loss Oklahoma Sooners) at home over the next four weeks. When even the team with the best chance to run the table in the Big 12 is more likely to lose twice in the final month, the league might not be in the best playoff position by year's end.
10. TCU Horned Frogs (8-0)
10.4 percent chance to win out (up from 2.9 percent last week)
Our projections give TCU a slight edge over Baylor in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency to date, but the Horned Frogs have to win at both Oklahoma and at Oklahoma State before facing off against Baylor on Nov. 27. There is only a 17 percent chance they'll beat both the Cowboys and Sooners, and a 34 percent chance they'll lose both games, according to our model.
11. Baylor Bears (7-0)
8.5 percent chance to win out (down from 11.8 percent last week)
Baylor faces one additional opponent over the final stretch of the season -- at Kansas State this Thursday -- which is the primary reason the Bears rank below TCU on this list. No team is more explosive or efficient offensively, but Baylor hasn't had the best November road results over the years, and trips to Stillwater and Fort Worth in addition to the weeknight visit to Manhattan this week are all potential pitfalls.
Dropped from last week's list of undefeated teams:
Temple Owls (2.8 percent chance to win out as of last week)
* Football Outsiders' FEI ratings are based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency, the net success of each team's non-garbage possessions against FBS opponents, with special emphasis placed on efficient performances against good teams, win or lose. Game projections for each remaining opponent are a function of the FEI ratings, an adjustment for home-field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The percent likelihood each undefeated team will win out is a function of each remaining single-game projection.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Thanks for posting.
