E$PN IN$IDERS - Week 9 College Football

[NYGiants25]

Phil Steele - Best Week 9 college football bets

Each week during the 2016 college football season I'll offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, along with a handful of other key matchups to keep an eye on.

Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) when picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread. The past two weeks have been rough here with my Insider picks and have dropped the straight-up record to 44-26 (63 percent) and the ATS record to just 26-41-2 (39 percent). On the Friday ESPN podcast, the record this past week was 2-2 and now stands at 14-13-1.

Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. (+) indicates a pick in which Phil Steele is taking an underdog with the points.


No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Volunteers went through the gauntlet of Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama and got extremely banged-up, losing their past two games. Fortunately they're coming off a bye and, while not anywhere near full health, they do get some players back, like linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. and three offensive linemen who missed most of the Alabama game.

Both teams have played Georgia and Texas A&M. While Tennessee caught both foes' A-games, South Carolina got those two opponents just off of big games -- and A&M had Tennessee on deck. Take away A.J. Turner's 75-yard run on the first play against A&M, and the Gamecocks rushed for only 116 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Tennessee rushed for 409 yards in their meetings with the same two teams.

The Volunteers have Joshua Dobbs and a super set of wide receivers, while South Carolina has true freshman Jake Bentley, who should be in his senior year of high school. His only action has been against Massachusetts after just taking his redshirt off. Mississippi State was just off a loss when the Bulldogs took on South Carolina, and they led 24-0 at the half with a yardage advantage of 324-90.

The Volunteers play their best ball down the stretch and last year won their final six games by an average of 22 points per game. Tennessee gets their stretch run started with a solid win this week.

ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, South Carolina 13


No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (+4)
Saturday, 8:00 ET, ABC
At the start of the year, this figured to be possibly be one of the top two games in college football, but that has been downgraded with Florida State already having lost two games. The Tigers have not looked as unstoppable as they did in the second half of last year. Over the final 11 games of 2016, their lowest offensive total was 512 yards. This year, they've failed to top 500 yards four times and have failed to top 26 points three times. They beat Auburn and Troy by six points apiece and needed a missed 33-yard field goal attempt by NC State to get to overtime and ultimately prevail.

Last year, a young Florida State team led Clemson 10-6 at the half in Death Valley and had the ball while trailing by three late in the fourth quarter. This year's Seminoles are more experienced and at home, where they've beaten Clemson in 11 of their past 12 meetings -- including four straight. The Seminoles have had my No. 2 toughest schedule in the country and gain 121 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average.

Defensively, Florida State is holding its opponents to 62 yards per game below their average. The Seminoles might have been buying their media hype earlier in the season, but now their backs are against the wall and they're a home underdog for the first time since 2011. I will call for them to play their best game of the year.

ATS pick: Florida State (+)
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 30


No. 15 Auburn Tigers (-4.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, 7:15 ET, SEC Network
The "buy" sign went on for Auburn when they got past a very talented LSU team at home and Sean White was cemented as the starting quarterback. Auburn had 388 yards versus that LSU defense, the most that squad has allowed all year. Four of Auburn's opponents have allowed season-highs in yards when playing them.

Meanwhile, their defense is holding opponents to 107 yards below their season average -- including holding two teams to season lows and three others to their second-lowest outputs. Auburn led Ole Miss on the road 35-0 at the half with 335 yards to the Rebels' 91. Last week they beat Arkansas 56-3 and outgained the Razorbacks 632-215. Ole Miss has a banged-up defensive front seven and has allowed 269 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.

Despite White having just 113 yards, low for an Auburn quarterback, the Tigers rank No. 3 in the country in rushing. They're averaging 303 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. Auburn should gain close to 300 yards rushing and certainly have the better defense and special teams. Auburn's defense is allowing 14.1 points per game, which is even better than Alabama's (14.9).

ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 34, Ole Miss 24


No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+23.5)
Saturday 12:00 ET, ESPN
Coach Jim Harbaugh was quoted at Stanford saying, "We're going to win with character, but we're also going to win with cruelty." This is his chance to step on a rival that has had a lot more recent success overall, and has beaten the Wolverines in eight of their past nine meetings. Michigan State has lost five in a row, and my computer has Michigan winning this game 45-11. Harbaugh took no mercy on a banged-up Penn State team, rolling to a 49-10 win, and in their only road game the Wolverines beat Rutgers 78-0. All those facts point to a blowout. However, I'm still going to take the points here.

The Spartans were favored in all five of their losses and find themselves an underdog for just the second time this year. This is just the third time this decade they've been a home dog, and they have pulled upsets on the other two occasions. The past 12 times Michigan State has been a dog, they've gone 10-2 ATS -- with eight outright upsets, including earlier this year against Notre Dame! My computer also forecasts Michigan outgaining the Spartans only 445-247, which is basically a 32.5-18 margin.

This is a rivalry game, and the Spartans' season has been abysmal, but they will give their best effort of the season here -- by far -- and make it closer than anyone expects.

ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Michigan 35, Michigan State 17


No. 8 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3)
Saturday 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Baylor is ranked No. 8 in the country and has outscored opponents by a 44-17 margin on average. The Bears are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Longhorns in December. Texas stumbles in at 3-4, having lost four of its past five games. With those facts, how is Baylor only a field goal favorite? Well, bookmakers didn't build Las Vegas into what it is with dumb odds, I suppose.

Texas has my No. 14 toughest schedule, while Baylor checks in at No. 116. Despite Texas allowing 443 yards per game, they're holding their foes to 2 yards below their season average. Baylor's defense allows just 320 yards per game, yet that's only 41 yards less than their opponents' season average. The offenses are actually close, and Texas has the special teams edge. Texas has their backs to the wall and can throw caution to the wind.

This time of year the unbeaten teams start playing with added pressure and distractions. There's a lot of playoff conversation and what-ifs being tossed around. I'll call for the Bears' unbeaten season to come to an end in an upset.

ATS pick: Texas (upset)
Score: Texas 38, Baylor 37

No. 24 Penn State Nittany Lions (-11) at Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2
Penn State was dead in the water against Ohio State, down 21-7 with the white-out crowd quieted. They drove 90 yards in just five plays to pull within seven early in the fourth quarter and then returned a blocked field goal attempt 60 yards for a touchdown and upset the then-No. 2 Buckeyes. When going through Penn State's season last week, I knew everyone remembered their 49-10 loss to Michigan, but that was their only bad game of the year, and it remained that way.

One key to last week's upset was the linebacking corps. Against Michigan at one point, they were down their top five linebackers. Last week they got back starters Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell, and while coach James Franklin said they probably wouldn't play the entirety, they combined for 33 tackles. It has taken a while for the new offense to take hold, but it's averaged 104 yards above what Penn State's past three opponents have allowed.

Purdue's defense is allowing Big Ten foes 108 yards above their season average. Two weeks ago, the Boilermakers trailed Iowa at home 42-14 after three quarters and the Hawkeyes put in their backups. They then fired coach Darrell Hazell and played with an extra bounce in their step as a large underdog against a Nebraska team that had a huge game on deck.

Penn State has my No. 11 toughest schedule, and Purdue sits at No. 74. While Penn State is off a big upset win, the team is gaining confidence and has both the better offense and large advantages on defense and special teams. The Nittany Lions won't let up in the fourth quarter like Iowa did.

ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 38, Purdue 21


Stanford Cardinal (-5.5) at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, 11:00 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Last week, Stanford got the return of Christian McCaffrey. While he wasn't 100 percent healthy, he had 92 yards rushing and added 26 on the receiving end. He will be healthier this week.

Stanford has faced my toughest schedule, going against Kansas State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, Notre Dame and a much-improved Colorado. Arizona is the weakest team the Cardinal will have faced and, at 4-3, this Stanford team really needs a win. A fumble on first-and-goal at Colorado's 4-yard line in the fourth quarter cost them that game. All four of Stanford's wins have been by at least seven points.

Arizona has beaten only Hawaii and Grambling State and is 0-4 in Pac-12 play, having lost those games by an average score of 41-22 and being outgained by 84 yards per game. They're fresh off a bye, and Stanford is playing for an eighth straight week. Stanford has a massive edge on defense (No. 9 vs. No. 105) and on special teams (No. 25 vs. No. 87). They should get the win they so desperately need.

ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 28, Arizona 17

 

[Frank Costanza]

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[NYGiants25]

Best Week 9 college football totals bets
Warren Sharp

Using an advanced metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, playcalling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.

Every Thursday during the football season, he will share with Chalk his top totals bets for the upcoming college football weekend. Warren will offer leans or plays, with the plays divided based on strength between full recommendations and split recommendations (with split recommendations suggested at half the weight as a full recommendation).

This season's record:
Full recommendations: 2-3 (40 percent)
Split recommendations: 4-2 (67 percent)

2015 record:
Full recommendations: 16-7 (70 percent)
Split recommendations: 9-11 (45 percent)
2015 Final weighted record: 20.5-12.5 (62 percent)


Here are his top Week 9 college football totals bets:

Navy Midshipmen at South Florida Bulls
Total: 64
Last week, the Bulls gave up 319 rushing yards to Temple's 65th-rated run offense. Now the Bulls must deal with Navy's third-rated run offense. In their past four games, South Florida has not faced a run offense ranked inside the top 60, yet their run defense ranks only 111th in the country. In their only recent meeting, Navy ran for 428 yards (6.2 yards per carry) against South Florida last year. In that game, Navy drove the ball to the USF 13, 11 and 9 yard line, but settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. This year, the Midshipmen rank tenth in red zone efficiency and will face their weakest red zone defensive opponent to date.

While Navy has a lot of positives in its favor, the Bulls are still favored. If they are to win, it likely will come via their offense. The Navy defense ranks 81st in my custom metric, Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) -- the lowest-ranked opponent faced by USF since they put up 35 on Florida State one month ago. Navy's run defense also ranks 81st, far worse than all of the Bulls' recent opponents, save for East Carolina, in a game ECU scored 38 points.

While both teams like to run the ball, both rank top ten in run efficiency. That should translate into fewer third down attempts and more trips into the red zone. Also look for hidden yardage in special teams, because when South Florida scores, they will be kicking off to the No. 14 team in kickoff return efficiency. When Navy punts, they will be punting to the No. 10 team in punt return efficiency.

ESPN Chalk play: Over 64 (full recommendation)


Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Total: 50.5
The meetings between these two ACC sides between 2006-2013 resulted in large wins by Georgia Tech. Those wins came from their Tech's incredible dominance on the ground, as they routinely won the rushing margin by 200-plus yards. In the last two years, however, Duke won both games and came quite close to outrushing the Yellow Jackets in the process.

This year, however, Duke's offense has struggled tremendously, so it is unlikely Duke will get enough production. That said, earlier this month Duke held Army's triple-option to just 6 points and, generally speaking, have played much better against option teams over the last two full seasons. Duke also just faced the flashy Louisville offense and held them to 24 points. Coming off of a bye, look for this under to be won on Duke's ability to slow down the Georgia Tech run game.

ESPN Chalk play: Under 25.5 first half (split recommendation)


Washington Huskies at Utah Utes
Total: 52
While the Huskies defense is sure to be a jolt to the system of Utah, which has faced several poor defenses the past month -- including California, Arizona and Oregon State -- it is the matchup on the other side of the ball which should drive this game over the total. Washington's offense ranks first in offensive success rate, and first in EDSR. They are consistently productive on every down, thus avoiding many chances that a single unsuccessful play would result in them kicking the ball back to their opponent.

By staying so "on schedule", Washington's offense makes many trips to the red zone. That's a good thing, since they rank fourth in pure conversion rate, scoring touchdowns on 82 percent of their red zone trips. Prior Utah opponents such as UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona and even California have scored touchdowns on just 57, 65, 54 and 59 percent, respectively. After back to back road wins, I expect the Utes, with RB Joe Williams anchoring the attack, to produce enough to help send this game over.

ESPN Chalk play: Over 52 (full recommendation)


UCF Knights at Houston Cougars
Total: 58
After a lower scoring win in Connecticut, played in the elements, UCF will head to Houston and very well may find themselves playing catchup for the first time in a number of games. Houston's offense gave away several turnovers in SMU last week, but over the course of the year, has recorded better efficiency numbers than any prior UCF opponent.

In particular, Houston ranks 13th on third down while the best opponent UCF has faced over the past month ranked 71st. Houston also ranks seventh inside the red zone, compared to 96th or worse for three out of the last four UCF opponents. Look for Houston, starting a three game home stand following a rare road loss, to be focused out of the gate. They should build an early lead, which will translate into offensive confidence.

ESPN Chalk lean: Over 58

 

[NYGiants25]

Top Week 9 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2015 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every week during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2016 record:
Fallica: 23-26-1 ATS
Coughlin: 17-20-3 ATS

2015 season record:
Fallica: 53-40-3 ATS (55.2 percent)
Coughlin: 38-29-3 ATS (54.3 percent)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS) and total picks are in bold. Odds are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Washington Huskies (-10) at Utah Utes (over/under: 52)
Coughlin: If there were a prop to have the final score land right on the point spread, this game feels like the time to do that. I'm usually a fan of Utah whenever the Utes are at home, and especially when they are an underdog. But there is something about this Utah team and this matchup that makes me hesitate to lean toward them.

The biggest factor is the guy calling the signals for the visiting Huskies, Jake Browning -- the nation's No. 2-rated passer, with a 199.6 efficiency rating. Browning seems unflappable; he's thrown 26 touchdowns to only two interceptions. The other reason I lean toward the team from Seattle is that they have outscored their opponents 200-24 in the first half, which is a great recipe to have when you go on the road. Plenty has been made about the Huskies and who they have beaten and how they've done so. I'm a believer in this team. I'll lay the 10 points and take the road team.

Pick: Washington 31, Utah 17

Fallica: The Huskies have been hitting on all cylinders, averaging 48.3 PPG en route to a 7-0 start. But looking beneath the obvious great production, one has to factor in that the Huskies needed overtime to beat a shorthanded Arizona team in Tucson -- a game with quarterback Brandon Dawkins rushing for 176 yards against Washington. Utah quarterback Troy Williams might not be the same level of run threat, but he still is one.

The Huskies also faced one of the worst nonconference slates in the country (Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State), and the four Pac-12 teams Washington has beaten are a combined 3-14 in conference play. That being said, the Huskies look the part, and I expect them to score points here. I also think the Utes will score their share, possibly even of the nonoffensive variety.

I don't know if Utah has the ability to win the game, as I do think Washington is the more talented team, but I don't think the Utes are going to be blown out in what is a tough place to play for visitors. The number seems about right, so I will side with the over here.

Pick: Washington 38, Utah 28 (over 52)


Clemson Tigers (-4) at Florida State Seminoles (O/U: 60.5)
Fallica: Something isn't right with the Clemson offense. Rushing yards are down nearly 65 yards per game from last year against Power 5 opponents. Turnover percentage is up, scoring percentage is down, QBR is down and so is offensive efficiency. The Tigers really need Wayne Gallman this week. Last year, he had 103 yards and a game-clinching touchdown in the win in Death Valley.

The Noles have been a very slow starting team this year. Two first-half touchdowns in the past three weeks and just four offensive scores in 33 first-half drives against Power 5 defenses this year. So that might be the case again here against a terrific Clemson defense. In the past two weeks, Florida State has gotten things together defensively, holding both Miami and Wake Forest to less than 280 yards. Now I know those offenses are a long way from the Tigers, but it looks as if they have things figured out on that side of the ball. Look for a lot of Dalvin Cook and for defenses to rule the day.

Pick: Clemson 28, Florida State 24 (under 60.5)

Coughlin: We all know that the last time Clemson played in Tallahassee, it was the coming-out party for Deshaun Watson, as the Seminoles defeated the Tigers in overtime without their stud quarterback, Jameis Winston. We also know that Cook ran for 194 yards last year as the Noles almost pulled off the upset over the then-undefeated Tigers. What remains confounding is the lack of appreciation for last year's runner-up for the national title. Clemson still doesn't get much respect for beating Louisville; people would rather bring up how they almost lost to NC State in a game in which the Tigers gave the ball up three times in the red zone. Clemson should have Gallman back, while FSU looks to still be without its best defensive player, Derwin James.

I think we see a sharp and very well-played game from coach Dabo Swinney's bunch. I'll take the road team and lay the points.

Pick: Clemson 30, Florida State 21


South Florida Bulls (-6.5) vs. Navy Midshipmen
Fallica: It feels as if Navy is going to be a huge public side here as the Mids are ranked after beating Houston and Memphis in consecutive weeks and South Florida dropped a road game at Temple on Friday night. Quinton Flowers' hamstring appears good to go, and the Bulls can't afford another loss if they hope to reach the AAC championship game. It's a big revenge spot too, as Navy ran for 428 yards last year in a 29-17 win over the Bulls. Factor in the Air Force game before the Houston and Memphis stretch, and this just might be the week Navy is set up for an off performance.

Pick: South Florida 38, Navy 28


Miami (OH) RedHawks (+7) at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Fallica: I'm going to back the RedHawks again as the MAC's best defense is getting points on the road against a team that has struggled to stop the pass (EMU is 112th nationally against the pass). QB Gus Ragland has done pretty well in the past couple of games after returning from an offseason knee surgery, with three touchdown passes last week in a win at Bowling Green. Our power ratings have this one Eastern Michigan -5, and while the Eagles have been a good story this year as they near bowl eligibility, I wouldn't go laying points here, as their past three wins have come by a combined 13 points, with none by more than seven.

Pick: Eastern Michigan 27, Miami (OH) 23


Texas Longhorns (+3) vs. Baylor Bears
Fallica: The only time we saw Baylor on the road in conference play, the Bears had to rally from two touchdowns down in the fourth quarter to escape Ames with a 45-42 win over Iowa State. The game at Oklahoma State to start the month got away from Texas, but the Longhorns' other losses were all winnable games. In the past three years, three of Baylor's eight lowest offensive outputs in terms of yards per play and offensive efficiency, along with three of its six lowest-scoring efforts have come against Texas. That's despite the Longhorns defense struggling mightily in that span. Texas is a more tested team (21st in strength of schedule) while Baylor is 114th, so we still know nothing about how good the Bears could be. I expect Texas to put forth a good effort Saturday and pull the minor home upset.

Pick: Texas 31, Baylor 28


Florida Intl Golden Panthers (+17) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Fallica: What a perfect spot for Florida International. I think this line is inflated, as Middle Tennessee is coming off a win at Missouri -- natural letdown spot after an upset win on the road against an SEC team. Neither defense rates very highly, and in what I expect to be a shootout, the Golden Panthers should put up enough points to stay within a big number.

Pick: Middle Tennessee 44, Florida International 30


UCF Knights (+9) at Houston Cougars (O/U: 58.5)
Coughlin: Remember when Houston started off the year as everyone's darling and the biggest out-of-conference game late in the year was going to be Louisville at Houston in November? Well, scratch that. But looking back at Houston's game last week, the Cougars turned the ball over twice early and were forced to play catch-up the whole game. Their quarterback, Greg Ward, was held to his lowest rushing yards output of the season. The idea is that coach Tom Herman can get this team to regroup for a week before their bye after playing nine straight weeks.

UCF comes in off a win in the Civil conflict, but who really needs to hear that story anymore. Houston is better at every position on the field and the Cougars still average just under 40 points a game. I'll take the home team give the points here.

Pick: Houston 38, UCF 21


West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (O/U: 65)
Coughlin: I have heard from plenty West Virginia fans recently about how I don't like their team or I'm not giving them credit. That could not be further from the case. I have picked them to lose in my money line pick of the week on the "Behind The Bets" podcast a couple of times, but in no way do I have anything against the Mountaineers or their fan base or even their coach, Dana Holgorsen, who is in fact in my top five favorite college football coaches in America.

It is important to note that West Virginia is 2-7 against the spread in its past nine games against a team with a winning record. All the talk about the Mountaineers has circled around their defense because it seems like they are the only team in the Big 12 that plays any. The feel here is that the balance of the Pokes' offense will give the Mountaineers fits as Mason Rudolph will distribute the ball among his great wide receiver corps of James Washington and Jalen McCleskey -- plus coach Mike Gundy will get enough out the run game, featuring Justice Hill, who has three 100-yard games and is fresh off a career-high 162-yard performance in his last game. Take the home underdog.

Pick: Oklahoma State 31, West Virginia 28


Maryland Terrapins (+5) at Indiana Hoosiers (O/U: 51.5)
Coughlin: For the first time in forever, when you mention Indiana football, you have to bring up the Hoosiers defense. They're holding opponents to 377.6 yards per game, an improvement of 131.9 from last season and the largest improvement in the country. On the other side, you have a Maryland team that has been as nice a story as there has been in the sport under first-year coach DJ Durkin. The issue with the Terps is that they continue to struggle to find balance in their offense, as they average only 160 yards passing per game. In a spot where Indiana needs a win to remain in the hunt for a bowl game, its defense comes up big and makes the Terps offense one dimensional while the Hoosiers' offense limits turnovers. Coach Kevin Wilson's team gets a comfortable win at home. Lay the points.

Pick: Indiana 27, Maryland 17

 

[NYGiants25]

The upset-makers who will shake up Week 9
Brett McMurphy

Each week, we will highlight players on so-called underdog teams, those who will turn college football upside down by helping to pull off upsets. (Last week's results: straight up: 2-3; against the spread: 2-3; Season totals: straight up 17-23; against the spread 24-15-1)

Here are five upset-makers to watch for Week 9.

No. 12 Florida State RB Dalvin Cook (vs. No. 3 Clemson, ABC, 8 p.m. ET)
This year's Clemson team reminds me of Ohio State last year: Entering the season with unbelievable expectations and not being able to live up to them until eventually suffering a loss against a league rival. With the exception of clubbing offense-challenged Boston College, Clemson has not dominated this season. Four of the Tigers' seven wins have been by a touchdown or less and yet they're a favorite at Florida State?

I think that's based on last year's reputation and results. Just look at how different this game would be viewed if two field goals had different results? FSU lost on a 54-yard field goal at the buzzer to North Carolina and Clemson won in overtime after NC State missed a 33-yard field goal at the end of regulation. Reverse those two results and FSU would be the favorite Saturday, not Clemson.

Dalvin Cook in the run game gives Florida State the ability to control the clock against Clemson. AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser, File
Three weeks ago at Miami, FSU was also an underdog, but Cook keyed the Seminoles' upset. His ability to move the chains will help take the pressure off freshman QB Deondre Francois and keep Clemson QB Deshaun Watson on the sidelines. Clemson is one of seven unbeaten teams playing on the road this weekend and the Tigers will be one of at least four of those unbeaten teams that will have a loss come Sunday morning.


No. 17 Utah RB Joe Williams (vs. No. 4 Washington, FS1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
First, let me say this: I love Washington. They have been in the top 4 of my AP ballot for the past four weeks. However, dominating wins against Stanford and Oregon don't look as impressive as the warts have emerged on the Cardinal and Ducks.

Utah is the most underrated one-loss team in America. Since returning from his retirement, Williams has proved he's no ordinary Joe, rushing for 511 yards the past two weeks. A dominating running game is the perfect antidote against Washington QB Jake Browning, currently the nation's best quarterback not named Lamar Jackson.

Browning will be facing the nation's top defense with 22 takeaways, including 14 interceptions, tied for the nation's most. With College GameDay on hand, this will only make the Utes' home field more valuable. I expect this one decided at the wire, which benefits a Utah team which has had five games decided by a touchdown or less compared with a Washington club on only its third road trip of the season. Another unbeaten goes down.


Texas LB Malik Jefferson (vs. No. 8 Baylor, ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
If you're a regular reader of this column (and we're not related), thanks for being around for the ride. And if you are, you'll realize this is my fourth pick on Texas. The Longhorns have been good to us so far: covering two of those previous three selections. Now unbeaten Baylor visits Austin.

Texas will need Malik Jefferson to be the catalyst on defense when the Longhorns host Baylor. John Rivera/Icon Sportswire
Everyone is aware of Charlie Strong's job status. "Hot seat" is not officially part of his name, but it might as well be. Everyone has an opinion on Strong's job security. At this point, Strong might have to win out to return next season.

With Strong taking over the defense, the Longhorns, led by LB Malik Jefferson, have shown drastic improvement. Baylor will present the toughest test, but Strong has enjoyed a great deal of success against the Bears. Speaking of Bears, ESPN's own Chris Fallica points out that in the past three years, Baylor's eight lowest outputs in yards per play -- and three of its six lowest points totals -- have come against Texas. Expect more of the same Saturday: Hook 'em "Hot Seat."


Iowa State QB Joel Lanning (vs. Kansas State, FSN, noon ET)
Even though Kansas State is battling to get bowl eligible, this could be a flat spot for the Wildcats. They're coming off consecutive games with Oklahoma and Texas and have Oklahoma State and Baylor up next.

Kansas State has been one of the best underdog teams in college football under head coach Bill Snyder. However, Saturday, K-State is a touchdown favorite in Ames against a fresh Iowa State club coming off a bye week. In the past six years, K-State, excluding games with Kansas, has been a road favorite in Big 12 play only four times. The Wildcats are 1-3 in those contests.

The Cyclones, led by Lanning, took Baylor and Oklahoma State to the wire, before losing late. Kansas State has won eight consecutive games against Iowa State, but only one was decided by more than eight points. Kansas State is not the type of team to pull away from anyone. Other than against Texas Tech's porous defense, K-State has not scored more than 24 points in four games against Power 5 opponents this season. The Cyclones will pull off what will be the biggest win in Matt Campbell's debut season in Ames.


Duke LB Joe Giles-Harris (at Georgia Tech, ESPN3, noon ET)
Since a loss to Georgia Tech in 2013, Duke has won five consecutive games against option-based offenses, including Georgia Tech the past two seasons: (31-25 in 2014 and 34-20 in 2015). Tech's 20 points in last year's loss to Duke was its second lowest of the season. David Cutcliffe is one of the best offensive minds in the game, but defensive coordinator David Knowles has been the key to the Blue Devils' success against the option.

Giles-Harris has had a strong first season, leading the team in tackles and second in tackles for loss and sacks. For Duke to have any shot at becoming bowl eligible, the Blue Devils can't afford to fall to 3-5. With an open date to help prepare for Tech's flex-bone, the Blue Devils will make it three straight versus the Yellow Jackets.

 

[NYGiants25]

Why there's reason to worry about Clemson, Nebraska and Washington
Ted Miller

The College Football Playoff picture should become clearer after this weekend, just in time for the selection committee to provide us its first rankings on Tuesday. If No. 3 Clemson takes care of two issues against No. 12 Florida State, its schedule notably eases up. No. 4 Washington will need to elevate its play in a couple of areas against the No. 17 Utah in order to establish its bona fides as a playoff contender.

Then there's the untested No. 7 Nebraska, which is looking to manifest its legitimacy on the road at No. 11 Wisconsin in advance of a visit next week to No. 6 Ohio State.

Oh, and there's something to be said about the "Disappointment Bowl" between Miami and Notre Dame.

Clemson, Washington and Nebraska -- all three unbeaten -- could make strong statements on Saturday, but there are glaring and subtle reasons why it's unlikely all three will do so.


FSU hoping for some home Cook-ing?
If No. 3 Clemson beats No. 12 Florida State (ABC, 8 p.m. ET), it immediately becomes "The Team Most Likely To Make The Playoff Other Than Alabama." The winner of this game has played in the BCS National Championship Game or in the College Football Playoff each of the past three years.

Problem for Clemson: They're 1-11 against the Seminoles in Tallahassee over the last quarter-century.

Problem for FSU: They're not playing very well.

Let's start with the FSU defense.

"Florida State hasn't been playing well on defense -- giving up a lot of those explosive plays," an FBS coach said.

The Seminoles have yielded 31 passing plays of 20 or more yards, which is tied for 109th in the nation. They've given up 12 rushing plays of 20-plus yards, tied for 86th in the nation.

Know that Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson saw what Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson did against FSU, rushing for 146 yards and four touchdowns. While Watson isn't the elite runner Jackson is, he's pretty darn active, particularly when the stakes are big. In the win over Louisville, he rushed a season-high 14 times for a season-high 91 yards. Last year against FSU, he ran 16 times for 107 yards, both season highs to that point of the season.

"In big games, he runs the ball more, whether those are reads or designed runs," an FBS defensive coach said. "He doesn't make mistakes. And when he throws, he doesn't make bad throws."

Watson running the ball also simplifies things near the goal line, where Clemson has been mediocre, ranking 89th in FBS in red zone efficiency.

It's no secret Florida State wants its offense to run through running back Dalvin Cook. Photo by Logan Stanford/Icon Sportswire
What does FSU want to do on offense? Give the ball to running back Dalvin Cook. After a slow start, Cook has been surging, with four consecutive games over 100 rushing yards. He also can be an effective receiver.

"Their offense revolves around Dalvin Cook," the defensive coach said. "They're obviously going to run the ball with him, but it's also in the pass game. They are going to try to get him open in the flat, try to get him on a linebacker in space."

If you slow down Cook, it remains uncertain whether freshman quarterback Deondre Francois can beat you.

"You can pressure him and confuse him," the defensive coach said. "He hasn't shown he can handle that consistently."

Of course, stopping Cook is not easy, even if the defender is in position to make a play. Cook is averaging a Power 5-best 74.3 yards after contact per game.

"You can run the ball against Clemson," the coach said. "They've got some monsters up front, but you have to run the ball against them. Passing the ball, you work on the midrange game and be calculated when you take shots downfield."


Browning, Huskies face big test in Salt Lake City
While many view the improvement of quarterback Jake Browning as the key to No. 4 Washington's transformation from a 7-6 team to a national contender, more than a few coaches point at the not-unrelated improvement of the Huskies' offensive line.

"They're much better [than last year]," an FBS defensive coach said. "What you don't realize is how well they move. I thought, out of every O-line we've played, with their athleticism as a group, they move the best, as far as pulling and moving their feet out in space."

That athleticism might challenge a Utah defense that is good, but not great, against the run, ranking sixth in the Pac-12 in yards per rush (4.2). The Utes' run defense can be vulnerable on the perimeter.

"That is a weakness of theirs," an FBS offensive coach said. "It's just because of the way their defensive ends play down blocks by the tackles. Utah's ends shuffle/squeeze so you can get around the perimeter, such as on a fly sweep."

Utah's defense is good at forcing favorable third-down situations. Its average third-down conversion distance is 8.3 yards, fourth-best in the Power 5 behind Michigan, Miami and Alabama. That's also a big reason it has recorded an FBS-high 22 takeaways and is tied for the FBS lead with 14 interceptions.

Washington quarterback Jake Browning will face his toughest defense yet when the Huskies visit Utah. Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire
The Huskies' offense has been doing everything well, including leading the conference with 5.9 yards per rush, and Browning on film looks like a senior, not a true sophomore.

"He's a guy who understands the game, knows what he wants to do," the defensive coach said. "As far as his eye control, he knows what he's reading."

Quarterback is a clear area where the Huskies have an advantage, though Utes quarterback Troy Williams will be highly motivated against his old team.

"I don't think their quarterback is a bad thrower, but he's not great," the defensive coach said of Williams. "So what they do is he has his throws he's comfortable with. Against USC, he made a living off throwing slant routes to the boundary."

The first question for the Utes' offense is whether resurgent running back Joe Williams can find gaps in the Huskies' stout defensive front. Injuries have turned a very good Utes offensive line into a unit that is only pretty good.

"It will be tough for them," the defensive coach said. "But if they have trouble blocking those guys, they will have something in place to help their guys out. They know who they are, and if they are struggling, they'll get help up front, a plan B."

The Huskies' defense is predicated on not giving up big plays and pressuring the quarterback without resorting to an array of risky blitzes. It has only allowed 2.7 plays of 20 or more yards per game this season, the 3rd-fewest in the FBS behind Michigan and South Carolina. The Huskies have recorded 111 sacks since Chris Petersen took over in 2014, fourth-most in the FBS, with 96 of those sacks (86 percent) coming when sending four or fewer pass-rushers, which leads all Power 5 schools.

As for the Huskies' secondary, it can play it safe with deep safeties or mess with a quarterback's mind as he has to make quick reads against pressure.

"They disguise their coverages a little bit with their man and their Cover 3," the offensive coach said. "It can be tough to decipher sometimes. They'll walk up their corners and press them. They'll play a mixture with man on one side of the field and Cover 3 on the other side. But if you can key the corner's eyes, and you know which side they are playing, you can get to some things in the quick pass game."

A quick pass game. Some Joe Williams runs. The Huskies making miscues in third-and-long. That would be the recipe for a Utah upset.


Wisconsin to strong-arm Armstrong Jr.?
No. 7 Nebraska is 7-0 for the first time since 2001 and has its highest ranking since 2010. The secret? The Cornhuskers have owned the end game, outscoring foes by 85 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, the best point differential by any team in the FBS.

Part of that end-game surge is attributable to clutch play from quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., whose QBR is 22 points higher in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Yet Armstrong Jr. is a reason that an FBS coach believes Wisconsin is going to prevail on Saturday (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET).

"I think Wisconsin's defense is going to give Nebraska problems because the QB of Nebraska is going to throw a couple up to them," he said. "That's his M-O if you pressure him enough."

Tommy Armstrong Jr.'s improved play is a big reason Nebraska has become such a strong fourth-quarter team. Bruce Thorson/USA TODAY Sports
Armstrong Jr. isn't the only issue, though. While No. 11 Wisconsin owns two losses, that's not so bad when you consider they are playing their fifth game game against a top-eight foe this season. Conversely, the unbeaten Cornhuskers have played a notably weak schedule. That is why Wisconsin ranks 11 spots higher in FPI and Nebraska has only a 31 percent chance to beat the Badgers in Madison, according to that metric.

Armstrong Jr., a third-year starter, is an effective passer when he's not under pressure, but his completion percentage falls to 45.5 percent when he is. Though he has been sacked only a Big Ten-low five times this year, four of his five interceptions came when he was pressured.

The Badgers are tied for third in the Big Ten with 2.7 sacks per game.

"They do a good job of figuring out your protections and where to attack them," an FBS offensive coach said. "They're putting seven people in the box and stopping the run, and then they are good enough that if they get you in third-and-medium, third-and-long, that they've got good cover guys."

The injury news, however, is better for the Cornhuskers. They get leading receiver Jordan Westerkamp back after missing two weeks, while Wisconsin announced Monday that linebacker Jack Cichy is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.


Stars falling in South Bend?
There's so much history with Miami visiting Notre Dame -- Catholics vs. Convicts! -- but on Saturday, the game will feature two disappointing teams and two hyped but struggling quarterbacks.

Miami and quarterback Brad Kaaya have lost three games in a row since a 4-0 start in Year 1 under Mark Richt, while little is going right for 2-5 Notre Dame and quarterback Deshone Kizer. Both junior QBs are NFL prospects, but they haven't done much to improve their prospects this year. Perhaps they could use another year of seasoning before heading off to the NFL?

"I don't know that anyone in the NFL has confidence in their evaluations on Kaaya and Kizer," a longtime NFL scout said. "Both have been forecast, at different times, as potential top-five draft picks, and now they will be on the same field Saturday. The way they've played this year would lead most to believe that both will return for the 2017 season, but a strong showing in this game could change that perception and lead one to declare for the draft."


Matchup of the Week: Wisconsin RB Corey Clement vs. Nebraska S Nathan Gerry
Nebraska knows it must key on the Wisconsin running game on Saturday, and therein lies a key matchup, according to Phil Savage, executive director of the Reese's Senior Bowl:

"Clement only played four games as a junior due to a sports hernia that limited him to 221 total rushing yards for the season. After battling through an ankle sprain in September, he has turned the corner with back-to-back 100-yard outings vs. Ohio State and Iowa. Gerry is a three-year starter and has totaled 43 stops, seven tackles-for-loss, two interceptions and five pass breakups as a senior. As the eighth defender to the 'box,' he should expect to see plenty of No. 6 on Saturday night."


Final food for thought
• Michigan opened as a 21.5-point favorite over Michigan State, according to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. As of now, this marks the third-largest spread in this rivalry dating back 40 seasons. A lot has changed for the Wolverines under Jim Harbaugh, as they were 17-point underdogs in their last trip to East Lansing in 2014.

• No. 8 Baylor is off to a 6-0 start for the fourth consecutive season, the longest active streak of 6-0 starts in the FBS. Prior to that, Baylor never had back-to-back seasons winning its first six games. Quarterback Seth Russell has a 14-0 career record as a starting quarterback, with Baylor outscoring its opponents by 33.9 points per game in those contests. Still, Baylor is an FPI underdog in two of its remaining six games: at No. 16 Oklahoma and at No. 10 West Virginia.

• No. 24 Penn State is playing its first game as a ranked team since the 2011 season. The four-year drought without being ranked tied the school record set from 1936 to 1939 (the first four seasons of the AP Poll). The Nittany Lions play at Purdue this week, who has lost 15 straight against ranked teams.

• No. 6 Ohio State allowed a season-high six sacks in last week's loss to Penn State, one more than the Buckeyes allowed in their first six games combined (five). It was the peak of a bad trend for Ohio State, as quarterback J.T. Barrett has been pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks the last three weeks (sacked, hit or under duress) after being pressured just 19 percent of the time in the first four games.

ESPN Stats & Info's Sharon Katz contributed to this report.

 

[NYGiants25]

FPI projections for Week 9's best games
Sharon Katz

All seven unbeaten teams in action this week (No. 1 Alabama and No. 20 Western Michigan are off) hit the road on Saturday. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects there's a 97 percent chance at least one undefeated team loses and an 81 percent chance at least two go down.

Which team(s) are most likely to fall?

With the help of FPI, we'll break down and project all seven games involving an unbeaten team. The games will be ordered by likelihood of an undefeated team suffering its first blemish. As a reminder, FPI's game projections account for team strength, game site, distance traveled and rest. Through eight weeks, the FPI favorite has won 75 percent of FBS games, including 73 percent (47-17 record) of the top-tier games projected in this column.


1. No. 7 Nebraska at No. 11 Wisconsin
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
FPI projection: Wisconsin, 69 percent chance to win

Nebraska is the most likely of the undefeated teams to lose on Saturday, according to FPI. Despite having two fewer losses than Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers rank 11 spots lower in FPI and have only a 31 percent chance to beat the Badgers in Madison. The difference between these two teams' records is the schedule. Nebraska has played the 86th-ranked strength of schedule and has won its games by about as many points as expected. The Badgers have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and have dominated the teams they should have and kept it close against the others. If this game comes down to the fourth quarter, however, watch out for Nebraska. The Huskers have outscored their opponents by an FBS-best 85 points in the fourth quarter and Tommy Armstrong ranks sixth in fourth-quarter QBR.


2. No. 10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Saturday, noon ET on FOX
FPI projection: Oklahoma State, 56 percent chance to win

If this game were on a neutral field the Mountaineers would be FPI favorites. However, the trip to Stillwater, which includes nearly 1,000 miles of travel, should not be overlooked. Another hidden factor in FPI's game projection is Oklahoma State's edge on special teams. The Cowboys rank sixth in special teams efficiency and they have the best starting field position differential in the country. West Virginia ranks 121st in special teams efficiency and is expected to be about four points worse than Oklahoma State in that phase of the game. West Virginia's defense should keep it close, and if the Mountaineers can escape with a win in Stillwater, their chances of an unbeaten season will more than double to about 17 percent, according to FPI.


3. No. 3 Clemson at No. 12 Florida State
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC
FPI projection: Clemson, 56 percent chance to win

Remember when this was supposed to be the "Game of the Year"? Although it doesn't have the same playoff implications as we expected in the preseason, both teams are ranked in the top 10 in FPI and are seeking another marquee win for their résumés. While most of the attention will be paid to Deshaun Watson and Dalvin Cook, the main reason Clemson is favored is its defense. The Tigers rank fifth in defensive efficiency and lead the ACC in points allowed per drive, yards allowed per play and opponent QBR. Clemson has won eight straight road games, but winning in Tallahassee is never easy. Before their close loss to UNC earlier this year, the Seminoles had won 22 straight home games and had not lost in Tallahassee since 2012.


4. No. 8 Baylor at Texas
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
FPI projection: Baylor, 62 percent chance to win

Baylor is 6-0 and ranked eighth in the AP Poll, but what do we really know about the Bears given their 114th-ranked strength of schedule so far? On Saturday, Jim Grobe's team has a chance to make a statement on the road against a team that beat them last season. With both teams among the six fastest-paced offenses in the country, there should be an abundance of plays and points in this one. Baylor ultimately has the edge because of its defense; even accounting for the level of competition faced, the Bears' defense has been more effective (23rd in efficiency) than most would expect. Texas' defensive struggles have been well documented, and its inability to stop big plays could be an issue against Baylor.


5. No. 4 Washington at No. 17 Utah
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1
FPI projection: Washington, 79 percent chance to win

Washington has won its first seven games by an average margin of nearly 38 points. But the Huskies have not faced many tough tests in the first half of the season. A trip to Salt Lake City could provide a challenge, but given their balance in all three phases of the game, FPI expects the Huskies to win nearly four out of every five times. The one X-factor that FPI may not have fully captured is Utah's Joe Williams, who has run for 511 yards in two games since returning from his brief retirement. If Washington can slow Williams, the Huskies have the edge at nearly every other offensive position on Saturday.


6. No. 13 Boise State at Wyoming
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
FPI projection: Boise State, 84 percent chance to win

Boise State currently has a 74 percent chance to win the Mountain West, but a loss to Wyoming, who is also 3-0 in conference play, would drop those chances to about 47 percent. This game also has major implications for Boise State's hopes of representing the Group of 5 in a New Year's Six bowl. Despite Wyoming's fast start in conference play, the Cowboys still rank 87th in FPI and have only a 16 percent chance to beat the Broncos at home. The mixture of Brett Rypien's passing and Jeremy McNichols' rushing and receiving should be too much for Wyoming's defense.


7. No. 2 Michigan at Michigan State
Saturday, noon ET on ESPN
FPI projection: Michigan, 96 percent chance to win

Michigan is surely sick of hearing Sean McDonough's call from last year's "Big House Blunder." With a chance for revenge, FPI gives the Wolverines an incredible 96 percent chance to win, which equates to approximately a 27-point margin. The Wolverines currently rank second in ESPN's FPI and are the only team that is expected to have a top-five defense and offense going forward. With the Paul Bunyan Trophy on the line, expect Michigan State to come out motivated, but the Wolverines are the least likely of the undefeated teams in action to lose on Saturday.


Bonus Game
8. No. 15 Auburn at Ole Miss
Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network
FPI projection: Auburn, 57 percent chance to win

With all of the marquee games featuring undefeated teams Saturday, this one actually ranks second in ESPN's matchup quality metric. Auburn is currently ranked seventh in FPI and Ole Miss remains in the top 15 despite its recent losses. Both teams have explosive offenses -- Auburn on the ground and Ole Miss through the air -- and are expected to be top 10 offenses going forward. Auburn's unexpected defensive resurgence (12th in defensive efficiency) ultimately gives it the edge in this game. The Tigers haven't lost two straight against the Rebels since 1949-1952, and FPI gives them a 57 percent chance to extend that streak.

 

[NYGiants25]

Phil Steele - Best Week 9 college football bets

No. 8 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3)
Saturday 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Baylor is ranked No. 8 in the country and has outscored opponents by a 44-17 margin on average. The Bears are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Longhorns in December. Texas stumbles in at 3-4, having lost four of its past five games. With those facts, how is Baylor only a field goal favorite? Well, bookmakers didn't build Las Vegas into what it is with dumb odds, I suppose.

Texas has my No. 14 toughest schedule, while Baylor checks in at No. 116. Despite Texas allowing 443 yards per game, they're holding their foes to 2 yards below their season average. Baylor's defense allows just 320 yards per game, yet that's only 41 yards less than their opponents' season average. The offenses are actually close, and Texas has the special teams edge. Texas has their backs to the wall and can throw caution to the wind.

This time of year the unbeaten teams start playing with added pressure and distractions. There's a lot of playoff conversation and what-ifs being tossed around. I'll call for the Bears' unbeaten season to come to an end in an upset.

ATS pick: Texas (upset)
Score: Texas 38, Baylor 37

anyone surprised by this selection? ha

 

[NYGiants25]

Phil Steele - Best Week 9 college football bets
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) when picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread. The past two weeks have been rough here with my Insider picks and have dropped the straight-up record to 44-26 (63 percent) and the ATS record to just 26-41-2 (39 percent). On the Friday ESPN podcast, the record this past week was 2-2 and now stands at 14-13-1.

Guess he didn't want to say how rough ... 2-15-1 ...

 

[TahoeLegend]

Thanks for all the work you do to produce this thread, NYG.

I still haven't decided how much to trust ESPN's FPI. Fallica cites it every week for his selections and he's not doing too well with it.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Excellence performance by most of those guys this week.

Phil steel was 6-1, Fallica was 5-1. Also, Warren Sharp was 2-0 on his full recommendation on totals.

Most impressive of all, Brett McMurphy was 5-0 on his dog picks. He obviously is aware of the big advantage--one that has existed for years--you get with taking home dogs in conference games this time of year.

In fact, he could have done even better. The only home conference dog that qualifies under this system that lost was Ole Miss. Otherwise, I think conference dogs that qualify under the system were 10-1 this week.

 

[Timh]

Of course I had Ole Miss lol....